It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Verilaie zerbrwa on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 2:56 pm
You are not powerful enough, We will do it using the sun and changing the energy field mathematical configuration, since you are just losers with no real power. See above.
I will fuck you over for insulting me,
quran etreal on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 3:03 pm
I will put in simple term since you are not intelligent. We will change the mathematical equations of the earth energy field. WE will update the chosen ones with a new set of mathematical equation that will allow them to connect to the new energy fiels and stay alive in the new energy field. they won’t need any food or even water to survive
Everything else will die: tree, insectes, wild life, human, aquatic life.
We are going to fuck all of you over big time.
cerale welington on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 3:22 pm
The installation of a new set of mathematical equations for the earth energy field guarantee us that earth won’t be able to reboot. We will kill everything in this energy field by install a new set of mathematical equation. Only the chosen will live. It is a slow method but it will guarantee us permanent results.
zewisky xebrie on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 3:39 pm
The update of the energy fields started way before COVID. It started 10 years before COVID. It started when my skin started changing. The installation of a new set of mathematical equations for the earth energy field started 15 year ago. It has been going on for a long time. I might be the only one that is aware of that.
We are not going to lose this war. I told to not fuck with me.
Valerie Plante on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 3:41 pm
The sun configuration is changing at about the same speed my skin is changing. That would be my guess. This shit has been going on for a long time. I told you that we will kill the whole population of earth and destroy earth.
qurn zewkwhsy on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 3:49 pm
While you are playing your shit theater with Carney, Israel-Iran war, Ukraine war we are busy kill you all by changing the mathematical equations of earth energy field. I will estimate this has been going on for 15 year or maybe more.
Keep playing your shit theater while we are busy slowly kill earth and its population.
werin jeamxiye on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 3:56 pm
We will start by killing all form of life. Leaving only the ground with no life in it. The ground is a cohesion element and cannot be disassemble before the chose ones are ready. There is a logic to what we are doing.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 4:03 pm
The wood seem to rot really fast compare to before. Same with steel. I think we increase the entropic degradation speed. Everything will last a lot less longer and requirement more maintenance, leading to faster natural resources depletion.
Watch fuck earth and its population over real good.
zerdkye eredia on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 4:15 pm
While you were doing your COVID crap, we were busy killing everything. This will include also the people behind COVID, Trump, Carney. The clean up will be really big and large.
zerie yleishy on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 5:20 pm
There is even a musical band called Rare Earth. You could not make that shit up even if you tried really. I am going to fuck over your precious rare earth. It has already began.
I am almost certain that it worst than I imagine out there, I just don’t have a car to go check by myself and confirm my theory.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yan9WilVmEg
zero helnea on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 5:41 pm
I will put here because it keeps coming back on my page. I spoke about that, the sperm has to come out. Of course there is female on female fight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obZmUS3nqSM
zeoew moswsky on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 6:13 pm
Shit you see in the sexual realm. Some people are sexually turn on by that. Look like some kind of Vietnamese comedy. See at 3:52. Like I said I have access to the best stuff on YouTube before everybody else.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qlVEPn2i2s
zero greskyli on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 6:20 pm
typical BDSM sexual scenario usually done naked. I am talking about the punishment with the stick.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9awXaeGXxI
zerie slesky on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 6:31 pm
2:13 typical female sexual fantasy, I think. The sperm most come out as I explained in details previously. Fucking whore love to be drown close to death in a water by a dominant male.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6yU48CgxCg
They know since 1930 that earth population IQ is too low to keep it alive, this is why they are trying to boost birth rate.
wseksy xeria on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 6:46 pm
I am not going to put all the stuff I have on here. Stupid whore, can only orgasm when she is in pain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlJc0lqwHrA
zeri creslye on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 6:51 pm
3:26. fucking whore that love pain and misery.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdYVXEuHCp0
ilane sewytsy on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 7:13 pm
I don’t know what to think of this. At first glance it does not look sexual, but you never know with these fuckers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9TvMHRXGSE
Denis Trudel on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 7:41 pm
I don’t give a shit, I want to die anyway. They are all disappearing and my skin is getting whiter. Yes the brown spot are slowly vanishing. It is a different kind of skin. I don’t know how to describe it. Only the chosen ones will live.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YJ98j4fSQU
yelene Pozcrlyp on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 7:46 pm
I am going to fuck you over all for pissing me off. The fun has even not began as far as I am concerned.
olesia verxkicp on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 7:49 pm
It is possible that people that did not receive the appropriate body upgrades to match the new energy field will get skin cancer. This is possible.
ceriale lopereta on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 7:58 pm
Trump facial skin look cancerous. Look at his facial skin. I guess when you are a grifter this is what you get.
xeria Bezickyst on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 8:01 pm
It is never a good idea to be friend with Israel or Jewish people. Trump should remember that. Go look at his face.
wiedo selixqsky on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 8:23 pm
Here is another fuck up name for music band:5th Dimension
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jft060DznuU
My theory about my body is that it will a hybrid body that will allow me to do dimensional travel in a hybrid flesh body type. I will be able to travel through heat, cold, the void and go everywhere.
aleria vagni on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 8:31 pm
Only people that did advance math would understand the concept of dimension as teach in linear algebra. Nobody sit there and call its music band 5th dimension just like that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jft060DznuU
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dimension_(vector_space)
In mathematics, the dimension of a vector space V is the cardinality (i.e., the number of vectors) of a basis of V over its base field.[1][2] It is sometimes called Hamel dimension (after Georg Hamel) or algebraic dimension to distinguish it from other types of dimension.
For every vector space there exists a basis,[a] and all bases of a vector space have equal cardinality;[b] as a result, the dimension of a vector space is uniquely defined.
I told you to not fuck with me and insult me with your stupidity.
eurlina britliab on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 9:07 pm
Fucking Jewish, British and Europeans trash. Should have been exterminated a long time ago.
selir zewsku on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 9:35 pm
I have talked about the fact that people are disappearing without a trace. We don’t find cadavers anywhere. I also talk about the fact that Morgue are empty and not overflooded with cadavers. The bible talk about it and explain what we seen on tv screen, black empty mouth, black empty eyes.
the Prophecy of Zechariah 14
12 And this shall be the plague wherewith the Lord will smite all the people that have fought against Jerusalem; Their flesh shall consume away while they stand upon their feet, and their eyes shall consume away in their holes, and their tongue shall consume away in their mouth.
Jerusalem is not geographical physical location as the Jews would like you to believe. Jews deserve death all of them.
The bible explain why we don’t find cadavers anywhere.
What is happening is that we are installing a new energy field. Only people with the upgraded body will live. See previous comments. Almost everything has been revealed.
Uzewt Abrochzit on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 10:22 pm
GLOBE TARDS for believing that shit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RWcWSN4HhI
They really are in love with the road earth. They even created a music band named Rare earth. Their reality will die like all the ones before, because it is build around the concept of death.
redirct mapind on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 10:36 pm
Even the maps are a farce. The maps are a direct copy coming directly from the parametric model of earth stored inside the reality database.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7SJVBX7jxo
Imagine such a parametric model but for the whole earth. You extract the maps from the parametric mathematical model. Same thing for google maps. It has been extracted from the parametric model of earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3CEOZfVLTk
rilian traly on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 10:39 pm
Go walk in the wood and try to open your own trail with an axe. Do it for real and come back and tell me how you liked it.
seliva trainlave on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 11:07 pm
Apparently the Chinese have a sense of humour. Apparently their slave training has not completely destroy their sense of humour.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcr8vvFONTY
neria larina on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 11:16 pm
Women are really ugly creatures without make up. So in order to boost the birth rate, they made video to teach women how to put make up on their so they are minimally fuckable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IO4I41eNrJw
Apparently that was a total failure and did not work. So they move on with female beach volleyball, strip club with private dance where a women will show you her vagina by bending forward. Apparently this did not work also, so they move on with BDSM clothing in movie like Resident evil: retribution. This did not work also. So now there are truly fucked.
This shit is really funny when you think about it.
quran kire on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 11:24 pm
The full instructions guide how to turn the face of women into something a men wants to fuck.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQoHhErqGcc
The sperm has to come out, or we will all die.
qudlie zewskut on Tue, 24th Jun 2025 11:43 pm
22:00 this shit is unbelievable. How to make a ugly women fuckable, this is how it should have been called. The oval face is the perfect form. This shit is just fuck up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrxdeSYOPkU
They already knew in 1946 that women were not pretty enough to be sexually appealing. As always they came up with gimmicks to fix the problem. They know they would have problems with the birth rate because women are not pretty enough. I made some comment in the past about the ugliness of women and how bad they smell.
ceriel jerimej on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 12:00 am
I made some comment in the past about the ugliness of women and how bad they smell. Look they made a video to teach women how to clean themself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIAhgwU4I-I
They are fuck and they know it. Their women are total failure: too ugly, unskilled about sex matter, smell bad, she is too mentally retarded to raise children on her own, she is too selfish and she loves only herself, always in survival mode.
welling amote on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 12:20 am
I like how this film treats the kid who doesn’t care about cliques as totally normal and not in need of fixing. I did not expect that!
This is me. Even them understand that loner are the jewel of procreation. They teach the losers how to work in communities because they cannot survive on their own and they know it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PxIxDmrFqc
zera nadiria on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 1:00 am
Is it a real story or a made up story. I will assume it is a real story. This is the reason I decided to use public transportation. You need to be really rich to afford a car. So rich that if a car failed on you, you just buy another one.
I suspect there is too much recycle steel on the market and it is making engine weaker.
After third engine failure Ontario man is losing patience
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27W_lEgkDJs
There are reasons why I demanded a lot of money. It is to be able to deal with shit like that including my own mechanic shop to fix car myself if things goes even worse. Working on his back on jack stands has limitations when you are older.
xeri pretiksi on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 1:20 am
IF historians ever revisit history and read my comments. They will likely come to the conclusion that I want right about 90% of the time and I could make accurate prediction regarding the futur. They would likely classify me as a super genius.
I have a track record of about 90%. It all there in my comments.
urinal pisslina on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 1:43 am
It is going to be a fast collapse. Within a year, no food, no gazoline, no car, no people to maintain anything. 100% death rate withing a year.
valeria Geneviere on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 1:48 am
I have shit load of videos on my YouTube page about making women prettier and sexually more appealing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ShMWoG2j2A
High heel = high heel dominatrix boots.
ulian zeria on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 1:51 am
Here they are, your high heel dominatrix boots at 2:20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1n7xOKn_ifo&list=PL0kEfb7RFLz0mJOtczQ5f4XSWQ2XTcjJ1
The sperm must come out or we will all die.
zeria zewskype on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 2:05 am
Water based paint instead of all oil based paint. Running out of oil, looking for substitute. Same problem want you paint the inside of your house with water bases paint instead of oil based.
Thousands of Florida drivers report car paint peeling off in sheets
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2vKhoGob8E
alain paramtre on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 2:28 am
I will assume this is real. I believe the other specie is full of genetic defects. this is why I believe they are collecting men sperm in massage parlors and other whore houses.
The sperm must get out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZGG9Kw70BM
xero bertrand on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 2:37 am
Think what you want.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-C2QX8LuIk
quran lolita on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 2:39 am
Procreation chamber to repopulate earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Cq7Jy3Ln5g
fernel welsikksdy on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 2:45 am
Ostie de câlisse de tabernacle. It is never ending. There is no bottom. They are happy to use them as slave labour.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poxEYM0RMto
rabbit hole on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 2:54 am
The fucking rabbit hole has no bottom. I cannot figure out if they are mocking us or it is real. another genetic defect
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SLHrVIECSI
Dnis ruble on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 3:03 am
Film to help mentally retarded people to act as a normal person. Made to hide their mental retardation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7dSCbAQR5k
This fucking rabbit hole has no bottom at all.
yelen avresky on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 3:13 am
Teaching mentally retarded people how to behave in society. They repopulated earth with mentally retarded people. I was right again.
I was right, they have a problem of high IQ. Not enough high IQ people to keep earth civilisation alive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PrVFlPV9tM
zebtre tulipiatu on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 5:27 am
Of course she has to do that with her legs open, as if she was laying down in bed on her back at 7:21. 2:21 she is in bed laying on top of him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jy6RF0IeRCs
varian jean on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 2:29 pm
Cigarette and the myth of the hero. Cigarette is associated with masculinity. It is associated with the warrior ethos. See at 1:10.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoD44rohrtU