[mos6507]

If copper is dropping then hopefully we'll see a drop in copper wire theft.

[lawnchair]

If you ask me, a hell of a time to buy copper as a nation (as long as the national credit card holds) and start hanging catenary over tracks.

The other interesting thing, to me, is that we've largely eliminated 'excess inventory' in many markets. Just-in-time delivery, flexible contracts with third-world factories that shut down overnight, etc. But, on the back side, the scrap side, the market functions old-school.

Dreamtwister - The article was talking more industrial metals. God only knows where precious metals fit in the scheme of things right now.

[frankthetank]

Yet at my local Menards, copper piping is still the same price... I wish it would drop, i would buy up a bunch.

[dunewalker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'Y')et at my local Menards...

[aflatoxin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'Y')et at my local Menards, copper piping is still the same price... I wish it would drop, i would buy up a bunch.

[Jotapay]

I'll buy your metal at spot. Come to me, my little ones.

[Starvid]

Anyone know how the iron ore price is developing?

[ohanian]

If I am China

I will build up infrastructure in my country while the price of raw material is so low and while I have lots of US dollars in my wallet.

[IslandCrow]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'A')nyone know how the iron ore price is developing?

[patience]

World steel price dropped by half to $600/metric ton:
Bloomberg article

Charts

The charts only go through October, when the drop began. New charts are subscription only, but would show the drop to half of the peak, or back to last year's prices. It was a bubble.....

[retrogressing]

Worse than the Great Depression.
The mainstream media and Wall Street have reached the consensus that the current credit crisis is the worst since the post-war period. George Soros’ statement that ”the world faces the worst finance crisis since WWII” epitomizes the collective wisdom. The crisis is currently the ultimate scapegoat for all the economic evils that currently plague the global financial system and the global economy – from collapsing stock markets of the world to food shortages in third world counties. We are repeatedly assured that the ultimate fault lies with the Credit Crisis itself; if there were no Credit Crisis, all of these terrible things would never have happened in the economy and the financial markets.

The most extraordinary thing is that the mainstream media has never attempted to compare the current economic environment to the one preceding the Great Depression. In essence, it is assumed outright that the Great Depression can never possibly happen again, ever, thus obviating the need for such a comparison. I actually believe that the macroeconomic fundamentals today are much worse, so that we are in for a protracted period of economic depression – a depression much worse than the Great Depression, a depression that would likely be remembered in history as “The Second Great Depression” or The Greater Depression, as Doug Casey has called it so aptly. Here is why I believe that this is the case.

Duplicating Mistakes from the Great Depression

At its core, the environment of the 1990s, and the response of the Fed to the tech-telecom bust has created an economic environment that has encouraged the repetition of the very same mistakes that led to the Great Depression. Here is a concise summary of widely recognized mistakes of the 1920s, without going into the details, with obvious parallels in the current environment:

*
Asset Bubbles – first in the stock market during the 1990s, then in real estate during the 2000s, pretty much mirroring the stock and real estate market bubbles of the 1920s.
*
Securitization – although not in the very “ultra-modernistic” form and shape of the 2000s, with slicing and dicing of pools and tranches of seniority, it was widely recognized in the 1930s that securitization during the 20s drove the domino effect in the U.S. financial system during the Great Depression.
*
Excessive Leverage – just like in 2008 the topic du jour is “deleveraging”, so the unwinding of leverage during the 1930s was the driver of forced liquidations and financial pain. Of course, it was very clear back then that the root of the problem was not deleveraging per se, but the excessive leverage that took place prior to the deleveraging process. “Investment Pools” were then instrumental in both the securitization and excessive leverage, just like the Hedge Funds of today.
http://waronyou.com/topics/worse-than-t ... ression-2/

[ohanian]

This cannot be worse than the Great Depression
because in the Great Depression, no one has ipods

[Cid_Yama]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s ordinary citizens with no power over the levers of policy, we watch from the sidelines, and weep. The whole global economy has tipped into a downward spiral. Trade and output are contracting at rates that outstrip the leisurely depression of the 1930s. Debt deflation has simply washed over the drastic measures taken by governments everywhere. Judging by the latest Merrill Lynch survey of fund managers, investors have a touching faith that China is going to rescue us all and re-ignite the commodity boom. How can this be? Taiwan's exports to China fell 55pc in January, Japan's fell 45pc. These exports are links in the supply chain for China's industry. Manufacturing output in the Shanghai region fell 12pc in January.

My favourite China guru, Michael Pettis from Beijing University, is in despair – as you can see on his blog (http://mpettis.com). The property bubble is bursting. Developers have built more offices in Beijing since 2006 than the entire stock in Manhattan. There is a 14-year supply glut. We have seen this movie before. Factory output is collapsing at the fastest pace everywhere. The figures for the most recent month available are, year-on-year: Taiwan (-43pc), Ukraine (-34pc), Japan (-30pc), Singapore (-29pc), Hungary (-23pc), Sweden (-20pc), Korea (-19pc), Turkey (-18pc), Russia (-16pc), Spain (-15pc), Poland (-15pc), Brazil (-15pc), Italy (-14pc), Germany (-12pc), France (-11pc), US (-10pc) and Britain (-9pc). Norway sails blissfully on (+4pc). What do they drink up there?

This terrifying fall has been concentrated in the last five months. The job slaughter has barely begun. Social mayhem comes with a 12-month lag. By comparison, industrial output in core-Europe fell 2.8pc in 1930, 5.1pc in 1931 and 3.9pc in 1932, according to RBS. Stephen Lewis, from Monument Securities, says we have been lulled into a false sense of security by the lack of "soup kitchens". The visual cues from Steinbeck's America are missing. "The temptation for investors is to see this as just another recession, over by the end of the year. But this is not a normal cycle. It is a cataclysmic structural breakdown," he said.

[Byron100]

Just as a point of reference, it took three and a half years for the economy to hit bottom after the Crash of 29. So if we go forward the same length of time from the Great Meltdown of '08, this would put us into the spring of 2012. Somehow, I don't think it'll take this long for us to hit bottom, although the trillions the US is hurling at this problem may slow things just a tad, plus all the "safeguards" in we have in place today, such as unemployment insurance, FIDC, etc.

The real SHTF is going to take place when the Chinese yank our line of credit and crashes the dollar. Anyone want to place bets as to when this might take place?

[Jotapay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', 'T')he real SHTF is going to take place when the Chinese yank our line of credit and crashes the dollar. Anyone want to place bets as to when this might take place?

[AAA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', 'J')ust as a point of reference, it took three and a half years for the economy to hit bottom after the Crash of 29. So if we go forward the same length of time from the Great Meltdown of '08, this would put us into the spring of 2012. Somehow, I don't think it'll take this long for us to hit bottom, although the trillions the US is hurling at this problem may slow things just a tad, plus all the "safeguards" in we have in place today, such as unemployment insurance, FIDC, etc.

The real SHTF is going to take place when the Chinese yank our line of credit and crashes the dollar. Anyone want to place bets as to when this might take place?

[Jotapay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'G')lenn Beck had a good piece about this yesterday on his show.

[gollum]

I wouldn't even begin to guess a time, but circumstance is easy, they will quit buying when it benefits them to and/or when it is no longer possible for an observer to deny that we are bankrupt and unable to pay back our debts.

[AAA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'G')lenn Beck had a good piece about this yesterday on his show.

[Jotapay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'M')aybe but Glenn Beck is one of the best sources for doomsday scenarios in the msm. He is a doomer at heart.