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THE "Worst Since the Great Depression" events (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Far worse than the Great Depression - Cataclysmic Collapse

Postby ReverseEngineer » Tue 03 Mar 2009, 19:57:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', '
')The real SHTF is going to take place when the Chinese yank our line of credit and crashes the dollar. Anyone want to place bets as to when this might take place?


It will occur when the Chinese run out of surplus, which shouldn't take too long with their foreign export market crashed. I seriously doubt the Chinese will borrow money to loan us money, and besides, who would they borrow it from?

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Re: Far worse than the Great Depression - Cataclysmic Collapse

Postby Maddog78 » Tue 03 Mar 2009, 20:01:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'M')aybe but Glenn Beck is one of the best sources for doomsday scenarios in the msm. He is a doomer at heart.


That's hard to believe after he calls Ron Paul a domestic terrorist and compares him and his followers to Islamo-fascists. He is a typical TV talking bobble head in my opinion. Fox is just trying to co-opt the Freedom Movement right now. Trust me, no one on Fox says anything outside the talking points and overall strategy. They have this role planned for Glenn Beck for a reason. If you think otherwise, you need to watch the documentary about Fox News to see how they operate.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eg8M2JBIoqo



Agreed, I can't stand Glenn Beck.
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Re: Far worse than the Great Depression - Cataclysmic Collapse

Postby nobodypanic » Tue 03 Mar 2009, 20:08:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', '
')The real SHTF is going to take place when the Chinese yank our line of credit and crashes the dollar. Anyone want to place bets as to when this might take place?


It will occur when the Chinese run out of surplus, which shouldn't take too long with their foreign export market crashed. I seriously doubt the Chinese will borrow money to loan us money, and besides, who would they borrow it from?
Reverse Engineer

us? :lol:

and why not? what's one more fiction added to the financial fantasy already in play?

the whole thing boogles the mind.
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Re: Far worse than the Great Depression - Cataclysmic Collapse

Postby Cid_Yama » Tue 03 Mar 2009, 20:10:43

Major Meltdown Imminent
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he nation’s largest banks are so close to collapse and the world economy is coming unglued so rapidly, a major Wall Street meltdown is now imminent. Specifically, it’s now increasingly likely that virtually all of our forecasts of recent months could come to pass in a very short period of time, including …

Stock market crash: A swift plunge in stocks to about 5000 on the Dow, 500 on the S&P 500 and 900 on the Nasdaq … or lower.

Corporate bankruptcies: A chain reaction of Chapter 11 filings or federal takeovers, including not only General Motors and Chrysler, but also Ann Taylor, Best Buy, Jet Blue, Macy’s, Saks Fifth Avenue, Sears, Toys “R” Us, U.S. Airways and even giants like Ford or General Electric.

Megabank failures: Bankruptcies or nationalization not only of Citigroup and Bank of America, but also JPMorgan Chase and HSBC.

Nationwide epidemic of small and medium-sized bank failures: Outright FDIC takeovers, with little prospect of nationalization.

Insurance failures: State takeovers of companies like Ambac Assurance, Bankers Life and Casualty, Conseco, FGIC, Medical Liability Mutual, Mortgage Guaranty Insurance, Nuclear Electric Insurance, PMI Mortgage, Standard Life of Indiana and many others.

Cities and states: An epidemic of defaults by thousands of cities, states and other issuers of tax-exempt municipal bonds.

Stock market shutdowns: Trading halts on major, big-cap stocks … plus on-again, off-again exchange shutdowns, making it increasingly difficult for investors to liquidate their holdings at any price.

Credit market deep freeze: A virtual shutdown in all debt markets except U.S. Treasuries. An avalanche of selling — and virtually no buyers — for corporate bonds, commercial paper, asset-backed securities, municipal bonds and all forms of bank loans.

Government bond collapse: A steep decline in the price of medium-and long-term government securities, as the U.S. Treasury bids aggressively for scarce funds to finance a ballooning budget deficit.

Shocking? Perhaps. Avoidable? No. Nor am I alone in anticipating this rapid unraveling of the economy and financial markets. This past Friday, at a Columbia University dinner, George Soros said the financial system has effectively disintegrated, with the turbulence more severe than during the Great Depression and with the decline comparable to the fall of the Soviet Union, while Paul Volcker said he could not remember any time, even in the Great Depression, when things went down so fast and quite so uniformly around the world. Both recognize that we’re in a new era of chaos.

link

Musical Interlude
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
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Re: Far worse than the Great Depression - Cataclysmic Collapse

Postby Pops » Tue 03 Mar 2009, 20:17:43

Does no one have an opinion they can call their own aside from "Link"?

Think for yourselves!


Jeeze, at least RE put up a thought...
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Far worse than the Great Depression - Cataclysmic Collapse

Postby ReverseEngineer » Tue 03 Mar 2009, 20:28:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'D')oes no one have an opinion they can call their own aside from "Link"?

Think for yourselves!


Jeeze, at least RE put up a thought...


I have enough opinions for everybody else :-) I cornered the market on being Opinionated.

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Re: Far worse than the Great Depression - Cataclysmic Collapse

Postby Cid_Yama » Tue 03 Mar 2009, 20:29:43

Jeeze, Pops, I express my opinion through the links I choose to link to.

Think my Musical Interlude pretty much says it all.

WE"RE GONNA GET BURNED! Ooooooo Burned, Burned, BURNED! Oooooooo BURNED, AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
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Re: Far worse than the Great Depression - Cataclysmic Collapse

Postby AAA » Tue 03 Mar 2009, 20:50:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'D')oes no one have an opinion they can call their own aside from "Link"?

Think for yourselves!


Jeeze, at least RE put up a thought...


Many people here require a link as proof and if it doesn't have a link then it didn't happen.

I have seen the words "Link Please" requesting some type of proof about a hundred times in various posts.
How can Ludi spend 8-10 hrs/day on the internet and claim to be homesteading???
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Re: Far worse than the Great Depression - Cataclysmic Collapse

Postby Cid_Yama » Tue 03 Mar 2009, 21:01:05

Also, a song expresses a totality, a gestalt, that cannot be expressed in mere words. This particular song was quite fitting to the situation.

We're clinging to his charm and determined smile, but the good old days are gone.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
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Re: Far worse than the Great Depression - Cataclysmic Collapse

Postby patience » Tue 03 Mar 2009, 21:51:52

My opinion? Probably by early summer, the US govt will find it is unable to float enough Treasuries to finance their spending and interest on the debt. This will be due to lack of sufficient demand for T's at the offered interest rate (discount), forcing the Fed to buy up the leftovers with magical money out of thin air. This funny munny goes directly into the economy via govt spending, and major inflation/currency crash is next. If the govt raises the offered interest rate on T's, they a doubly screwed, since major amounts of the National Debt need to be "rolled over" (refinanced) this year from short term T's that are so popular now. By raising interest rates, they increase the amount they pay to float the Debt, making the situation worse. That's why they will be forced to "print", or create money to buy their own debt.

Other countries are in the same dilemna, so it will be a race down the toilet bowl. Nobody wants this to happen, so every goofball idea will be tried to stave it off, hence I could be wrong on the timing, But I am convinced of the thesis. The math is there to back it up.

There will be little warning, if any, due to the speed of transactions today. What used to takes days or weeks can now be done in milliseconds, so the dominoes will fall in a hurry. When you hear of "failed Treasury auctions, listen for the gurgling sound coming from D.C.. That will be the govt choking on the deficit. Very quickly, your credit card won't work, your bank account will be frozen, and what money you have had best be spent on useful items very fast, while it is still worth something, particularly with regard to imports. Like oil and oil products, coffee, China Mart stuff, shoes and clothing made in Malaysia, etc.. Those prices will occur relative to currency exchannge rates, varying with the ability of each country to devalue their money faster than another one.

Get prepped, and keep your head down.

THERE! That ought to qualify for one of "Ludi's Preposterous Predictions"!
Last edited by patience on Tue 03 Mar 2009, 21:56:46, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Far worse than the Great Depression - Cataclysmic Collapse

Postby Ludi » Tue 03 Mar 2009, 21:56:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', '
')
THERE! That ought to qualify for one of "Ludi's Preposterous Predictions"!



I find it entirely plausible, though perhaps a little premature. But I will post it as a Bold Prediction anyway. :)
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Re: Far worse than the Great Depression - Cataclysmic Collapse

Postby patience » Tue 03 Mar 2009, 22:09:47

Lost another long one. Cleared cookies and will try again.

Ludi--I left myself an out with the 2nd paragraph!

Kunstler is predicting trouble with agriculture, due to lack of financing soon. I see this locally.
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Re: Far worse than the Great Depression - Cataclysmic Collapse

Postby RedStateGreen » Tue 03 Mar 2009, 22:19:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', 'A')lso, a song expresses a totality, a gestalt, that cannot be expressed in mere words. This particular song was quite fitting to the situation.

We're clinging to his charm and determined smile, but the good old days are gone.


This is the song all the pundits remind me of:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzymBKGV8rw

The deception with tact, just what are you trying to say?
You've got a blank face, which irritates
Communicate, pull out your party piece
you see dimensions in two
State your case with black or white
But when one little cross leads to shots, grit your teeth
You run for cover so discreet, why don't they

Do what they say, say what you mean
One thing leads to another
You told me something wrong, I know I listen too long
But then one thing leads to another
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '&')quot;Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"

First thing to ask: Cui bono?
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Re: Far worse than the Great Depression - Cataclysmic Collapse

Postby Cid_Yama » Tue 03 Mar 2009, 23:31:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ost another long one. Cleared cookies and will try again.


Is that what it is? Been having the same problem myself.

I learned a trick. When you get the message, hit refresh(browser toolbar), then retry, you don't lose your post that way.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
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Re: Far worse than the Great Depression - Cataclysmic Collapse

Postby shortonoil » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 12:01:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') The last desperate act of the banking system in the face of Peak Oil's no-more-growth equation was to engineer species of tradable securities that could produce wealth out of thin air rather than productive activity. This was the alphabet soup of algorithm-derived frauds with vague and confounding names such as credit default swaps (CDSs), collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), structured investment vehicles (SIVs), and, of course, the basic filler, mortgage backed securities. The banking system is now choking to death on these delicacies.


James Kunstler

Extrapolating from US bond issuance of $59 trillion, the world has book equity of $256 trillion. The vast majority of that $256 trillion has already been mortgaged. For the most part, the paper against those assets is held by the world’s financial industry.

In 2008 US assets lost about $18 trillion. $10.3 trillion in equities, $4.4 in real estate and the balance from bonds. Reported or not reported, these were direct losses against the holders of the paper who had financed those assets. The holders of all the world’s paper lost $56 trillion.

Now completely swamped with debt that can not be repaid (there is not enough money in the world) the credit system has stopped. Everyone is in debt, and no one knows by how much. Without credit creation, book asset values can not be supported and continue to decline (as no one has the money to bid for them) and monetary formation has ceased. The world’s monetary system is now folding inward on itself at a velocity never before thought possible.

$56 trillion will morph into fantastically huge sums as $1000 trillion in derivatives implode. Economic activity will cease as cash flow ceases, and the world will stop!

We may (?) hear about cross party default problems a few days before the wreck. A few may try to speak out before the catastrophe strikes; most will be blasted down by the prevailing silence as the world shutters to a halt.

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Re: Far worse than the Great Depression - Cataclysmic Collapse

Postby SeaGypsy » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 12:20:33

I like a lot of the educated guesswork here.

How about these 3?

The mobile phone network goes down.
(with satellite phones)

Internet likewise.

Then while we are freaking out.

We hear rumor that the banking system has collapsed.

We know something is very wrong because we are hungry& there are thousands of people waiting at the auto teller& starting to smash& grab.
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Re: Far worse than the Great Depression - Cataclysmic Collapse

Postby shortonoil » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 12:38:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') like a lot of the educated guesswork here.

How about these 3?

The mobile phone network goes down.
(with satellite phones)

Internet likewise.

Then while we are freaking out.

We hear rumor that the banking system has collapsed.

We know something is very wrong because we are hungry& there are thousands of people waiting at the auto teller& starting to smash& grab.



That is why it is important to move out of the cities as soon as possible. They will burn!
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Re: Far worse than the Great Depression - Cataclysmic Collapse

Postby vision-master » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 14:39:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') like a lot of the educated guesswork here.

How about these 3?

The mobile phone network goes down.
(with satellite phones)

Internet likewise.

Then while we are freaking out.

We hear rumor that the banking system has collapsed.

We know something is very wrong because we are hungry& there are thousands of people waiting at the auto teller& starting to smash& grab.



That is why it is important to move out of the cities as soon as possible. They will burn!


Like Watts riot of the 60's?
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Re: Far worse than the Great Depression - Cataclysmic Collapse

Postby Pops » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 15:12:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'M')any people here require a link as proof and if it doesn't have a link then it didn't happen.

I have seen the words "Link Please" requesting some type of proof about a hundred times in various posts.

My point is to post some analysis, relative experience, corroboration/refutation or something.

Otherwise just post it as news.
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Re: Far worse than the Great Depression - Cataclysmic Collapse

Postby ReverseEngineer » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 15:31:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'I') like a lot of the educated guesswork here.

How about these 3?

The mobile phone network goes down.
(with satellite phones)

Internet likewise.

Then while we are freaking out.

We hear rumor that the banking system has collapsed.

We know something is very wrong because we are hungry& there are thousands of people waiting at the auto teller& starting to smash& grab.


Can we get a Target Date on this? The lack of an accurate Doomsday is annoying.

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