by Tyler_JC » Sat 02 Aug 2008, 11:53:33
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', 'R')elax, it won't be much worse than the GREAT DEPRESSION and nobody died from that, people ate rabbit and gopher stew with turnips and potatoes and carrots and sat around the campfire singing happy songs (I can't think of any examples right now. Maybe if I go to the fridge I will find some inspiration)
US population 1929 - 122Million.
You probably need to add mudcakes to the food list.
But, things have changed, agricultural productivity per farm worker is many times what it was back then. Far better equipment and genetic improvements to crops and animals.
Why would you want to bring that up and ruin their fun?
by dunewalker » Sat 02 Aug 2008, 12:10:46
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'B')ut, things have changed, agricultural productivity per farm worker is many times what it was back then. Far better equipment and genetic improvements to crops and animals.
Surely you jest. Of course you realize that modern agricultural productivity is a direct result of fossil fuel (oil) inputs. Nice tractors yes, but useless w/o fuel. Nice crop duster there, but can't fly--doesn't matter cuz there's no petro-chemicals to spray on those crops anyway. Genetic "improvements" like Roundup-Ready?
Round-up Ready controversy
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by 3aidlillahi » Sat 02 Aug 2008, 14:35:29
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')t is just about amazing that folks who've been here for quite some time still can't make that easy-as-pie connection.
Why hell, even a country bumpkin like myself understands that arithmetic.
Back in the 1930's most of our food was grown without petroleum. They used horses to work, horse poop for fertilizer, and they swatted away the pests with their horse tails.
![[smilie=tongue3.gif]](https://udev.peakoil.com/forums/images/smilies/tongue3.gif "tongue3")
Compared to what' a comin' the Depression will feel like the cakewalk at a contradance.
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Actually, food production takes up only a small amount of oil (transportation is another issue) and considering that food is the ultimate basic necessity, it's reasonable to assume that the agribiz will be the no 1 priority (ok, maybe the army takes precedence) when it comes to distribution of scarce oil; only if almost all cars have disappeared from the streets of our cities then we must worry about our agricultural machines grinding to a halt, and that will be a long time yet.
I agree with that up a point. It's true that grains, meats, and vegetables need little petroleum. However folks can't get near the food without plenty of additional petroleum. It goes bad.
The veggies have to be refrigerated, the grains bagged, shipped, milled into flour, processed into starch and junk food--otherwise the bug devour it promptly. The meat needs refrigerated slaughter houses, transport trucks, and packing plants. You have frozen retail and rail containers. Dryers and dehydraters. Giant retail operations require folklifts, lighting, security, just-in-time shipping. Gotta have diesel rail lines, refrigerated warehouses in the desert, diesel trucks and intact nterstate highways and bridges. All must be maintained at all times. We have a just-in-time life. No downtime.
We are dependent on processed foods because we are so far removed from the farm. Even though a little oil goes directly into actual food production, our very life depends on all the associated systems.. IT'S A VERY FRAGILE EXISTENCE WE LIVE
At best we will come to depend on simple grains. It won't be so bad. We'll get our porridge in the morning, our cup of gruel at lunch, and a big steamy hearty bowl of mush for dinner
And we'll be thankful for it.
And let's just imagine that all of that which you mentioned takes 25% of our oil. That means that if we absolutely needed to, we could still be net EXPORTERS of oil if we wanted to. But it's our desires for materialism that causes us to be importers, not our foodstuffs.
If our oil production decline rates jump up from a meager 1-2%/annum now to, say, 10%, then we'd still have enough for 5 years with 0 imports and 0 new drilling offshore/ANWR sites. If we had only a 5% decline rate and we still don't open up those sites, then we'd still have a decade. Open up other sites and we can add another decade. Imports, a third decade, probably fourth or fifth.
If that really amounts to only 10 or 15% of our oil needs, then we're looking at several decades during which higher prices would push people to the land and to reduce our numbers and energy demand.
Riches are not from abundance of worldly goods, but from a contented mind.
by SILENTTODD » Sat 02 Aug 2008, 14:46:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'T')he Great Depression had a fairly quick end.
11 years? (1930-1941) Nobody posting here can guarantee you they will be alive in 11 years!
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by dunewalker » Sat 02 Aug 2008, 15:21:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')t is just about amazing that folks who've been here for quite some time still can't make that easy-as-pie connection.
Why hell, even a country bumpkin like myself understands that arithmetic.
This is a bit discouraging, actually, when I look at the posters in this thread who don't seem to grasp the basics of what's coming down. Newbies is one matter--posters who've been here 3 or 4 years is another. There's a real lesson in this: anyone who's not on board yet, don't waste time with, just prepare as well as possible with those who DO get it. The only plausible transitions from here on out will take place in our mindsets, not in the physical world.
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by Wren » Sat 02 Aug 2008, 15:33:28
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', 'R')elax, it won't be much worse than the GREAT DEPRESSION and nobody died from that, people ate rabbit and gopher stew with turnips and potatoes and carrots and sat around the campfire singing happy songs (I can't think of any examples right now. Maybe if I go to the fridge I will find some inspiration)
US population 1929 - 122Million. You probably need to add mudcakes to the food list.
In honor of the Cannibalism tradition for these threads let me be the first to say, once we have eaten half the people in the country we can go back to squirrel, gopher and roof rabbit.
+1 Eat the people first.
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