[Micki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', 'R')elax, it won't be much worse than the GREAT DEPRESSION and nobody died from that, people ate rabbit and gopher stew with turnips and potatoes and carrots and sat around the campfire singing happy songs (I can't think of any examples right now. Maybe if I go to the fridge I will find some inspiration)

[JustaGirl]

No one knows what will happen. Isn't that the fun part of PO? If anyone did, they wouldn't need to post on PO forum. The great depression part 2 + a slow powering down is actually my best case scenario, because most of us can live through that.

I've come to realize Monte is right. We are not getting out of this without a major die off, as much as I don't want to think about it. We have several epidemics going on right now that are put on the back burner thanks to modern medicine, diabetes, HIV, & cancer come to mind. When these people are no longer able to afford their medications/health care they will die. My own dad would have more than likely died 9 years ago from type II diabetes, but modern medicine saved him. I know many many people just like him. This doesn't even address all the other things that may be just around the corner(bird flu).

Anyhoo. I just hope with all my heart we have at least 10+ years of a slow powering down so my children will at least have a fighting chance. I'm doing the best I can to put the odds in their favor. God willing it will be enough

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustaGirl', 'N')o one knows what will happen. Isn't that the fun part of PO? If anyone did, they wouldn't need to post on PO forum. The great depression part 2 + a slow powering down is actually my best case scenario, because most of us can live through that.
I've come to realize Monte is right. We are not getting out of this without a major die off, as much as I don't want to think about it. We have several epidemics going on right now that are put on the back burner thanks to modern medicine, diabetes, HIV, & cancer come to mind. When these people are no longer able to afford their medications/health care they will die. My own dad would have more than likely died 9 years ago from type II diabetes, but modern medicine saved him. I know many many people just like him. This doesn't even address all the other things that may be just around the corner(bird flu).
Anyhoo. I just hope with all my heart we have at least 10+ years of a slow powering down so my children will at least have a fighting chance. I'm doing the best I can to put the odds in their favor. God willing it will be enough

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'T')he Great Depression had a fairly quick end.

[Cloud9]

According to standard American history texts, the Depression did not end in 1939.

“Of all its achievements, perhaps the New Deals greatest was to restore a sense of hope. People poured out their troubles to the President and First Lady. Eleanor and Franklin Roosevelt received thousands of letters daily during the late Depression era. Every letter contained a story of continued personal suffering. In their distress, people looked to their government for support. Indeed, government programs did mean the difference between survival and starvation for millions of Americans.

Nevertheless, economic recovery in the United States would not come until well into the 1940s, and it did not come through more New Deal programs. The return of a robust economy was set in motion on the battlefields of Europe in the late 1930s, where another test of American character was brewing: a second world war.”

America Pathways to the Present, Davidson, Stoff, Viola, Prentice Hall, 2005, p. 791

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'A')ccording to standard American history texts, the Depression did not end in 1939.

“Of all its achievements, perhaps the New Deals greatest was to restore a sense of hope. People poured out their troubles to the President and First Lady. Eleanor and Franklin Roosevelt received thousands of letters daily during the late Depression era. Every letter contained a story of continued personal suffering. In their distress, people looked to their government for support. Indeed, government programs did mean the difference between survival and starvation for millions of Americans.

Nevertheless, economic recovery in the United States would not come until well into the 1940s, and it did not come through more New Deal programs. The return of a robust economy was set in motion on the battlefields of Europe in the late 1930s, where another test of American character was brewing: a second world war.”

America Pathways to the Present, Davidson, Stoff, Viola, Prentice Hall, 2005, p. 791

[Vogelzang]

Onboard High-Tech Oil Rig, U.S. Answers to Rising Prices
Ever-increasing fossil fuel demand has companies going farther and digging deeper for oil than ever before. We visit America's most promising patch.
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science ... 55407.html

Note the part of the article that says:
Proponents of peak oil, a theory that says we're at, or near, the time when little new oil will be found, causing a rapid decline in petroleum production argue that the action in the gulf is nothing but the last desperate gasps of a dying way of life. Peter Jackson, a senior director monitoring oil industry activities at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an independent think tank in Boston, disagrees. "The overall U.S. supply is gradually decreasing, but that rate of decline will be slowed by contributions from deepwater reserves in the whole Atlantic basin, from the gulf to Nigeria, Angola and Brazil." Jackson sees oil production reaching a plateau, rather than a sharp peak, but not for decades. "And that means we'll have time to mitigate and make some plans and legislate, and that's very different from saying there's going to be a peak in, say, 2010, followed by a precipitous decline."

And it's hard not to argue with a simple fact: Shell and other oil companies aren't spending billions of dollars without believing that it'll pay off for years to come. "We're putting all of our free cash into oil and gas development," says Russ Ford, vice president of development for Shell. "We believe hydro-carbons will be there for a very long time. Nothing is going to knock down oil."
----------------------------------
There's more than twice as much heavy oil as there is conventional oil.
http://www.slb.com/content/services/sol ... vy_oil.asp

http://heavyoilinfo.com/
----------------------------------
This is an optimistic article. Some are more pessimistic.

Natural gas reserves exceed projections, industry claims
http://www.poughkeepsiejournal.com/apps ... /807310334

The U.S. has enough natural gas resources to last up to 118 years, or 2,247 trillion cubic feet, said the study by Navigant Consulting for the American Clean Skies Foundation. That group is largely funded by natural gas companies.

The Potential Gas Committee, an independent research group, estimated in 2006 that the U.S. has an 82-year supply of natural gas.
-----------------------------------
Debunking the Hubbert Model
http://www.gasresources.net/Lynch(Hubbert-Deffeyes).htm
-----------------------------------
Oil Shale
http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/30/magazin ... /index.htm

[Cloud9]

PStar, I am only as good as my source unless I am an eye witness.

It would not be the first time history texts have been wrong. Years ago I had a text that said B 52s took off aircraft carriers to raid Japan. We all know they were 25s but I did win some bets against a few Colonels running ROTC programs.

The general position taken by historical survey texts is that the depression ended when the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. According to my parents who lived through those times, the War changed every thing. Jobs were everywhere and construction boomed. The change was felt by them in 1943-1944.

I suspect GDP in 1939 was affected by lend lease programs designed to keep the Chinese and Brits from folding. Much of that out put was hidden from the common man due to the politics of the time. I have in my collection one rather remarkable Enfield that is clearly stamped U.S. Property, but it was never intended for U.S. use in that it was chambered in .303.

My parents found that even during the war, goods were scarce and rationed. As a result, for the man on the street, it did not feel like the depression was over until the war ended.

[JustaGirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '
')reduced life expectancy doesn't qualify as a die-off. While I'd say die-off is a possibility, I think it'd be more likely to see a leveling off of population like the way it's happening already in most of Europe and Japan and will happen soon in China. Sure a pandamic might occur, but it might have occurred in the best of times. Worst plausable case IMO might be a regional hunger instigated die-off in the overpopulated parts of south Asia but this will be caused by the uncertain effects of climate change rather than peak-oil. And even so the effects of peak oil, hard as they are to exactly predict, are easier to predict than a possible die-off here or there.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')GDP historical

And

Industrial output

Both clearly show that by mid 1939 the USA economic activity exceeded that of 1929. Aparently the authors of your history text somehow failed to notice this fact.

[SILENTTODD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'T')he Great Depression had a fairly quick end.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'T')he Great Depression had a fairly quick end.

[allenwrench]

rabbit stew with turnips and potatoes and carrots...

I'd be most grateful to eat that Keith.

My concern is all I will have to eat is snow and pine needles.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('allenwrench', 'r')abbit stew with turnips and potatoes and carrots...

I'd be most grateful to eat that Keith.

My concern is all I will have to eat is snow and pine needles.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he price of key industrial metals has fallen further over the last four months than occurred during the worst years of Great Depression between 1929 and 1933, according to research by Barclays Capital.

Kevin Norrish, the bank's commodities strategist, said the average fall in the price of copper, lead, and zinc has been roughly 60pc since the peak in July this year. All three metals were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the inter-war years so it is possible to make a comparison.
Prices for the three metals fell 40pc from their highs in 1929 before touching bottom in 1933, with the bulk of the fall in 1930 as the slump spread worldwide.

"Lead and zinc have already lost more than they did in the 1930s," he said. Copper was hit hardest during the Depression, despite the electrification drive in the US and the Soviet Union, falling 70pc at one stage before creeping back in the mid-1930s. The reason was an 85pc fall in US construction, then the biggest user of the metal.

Barclays Capital said the broader equity markets are already discounting the sorts of "savage declines" in corporate profits that were last seen in the Slump. It said (trailing) price to earnings ratios are actually lower now than they were the early 1930s, with moves in credit spreads that suggest investors are anticipating depression-era levels of economic contraction.

The credit markets continued to exhibit signs of extreme stress yesterday. The iTraxx Crossover index measuring default risk on low-grade European bonds punched above 950 for the first time. The investment grade index hit 188. The spreads are now flashing the sort of danger signals seen before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September.
Each episode of the financial crisis over the last eighteen months has been preceded by a big jump in the iTraxx indexes.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/news ... ssion.html

[Revi]

I heard that the price for metals has fallen dramatically. I think the deflation rate during the depression was around 10% per year. We are experiencing drops of over 50% in most things.

They were paying $300 for a car for scrap this summer. Now it's down to $30. There's no place to sell the stuff.

The economy is slowing so quickly, it's like it hit a wall.

[Dreamtwister]

And yet all of the Bullion dealers are still out of physical stock.