[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'I') like a lot of the educated guesswork here.

How about these 3?

The mobile phone network goes down.
(with satellite phones)

Internet likewise.

Then while we are freaking out.

We hear rumor that the banking system has collapsed.

We know something is very wrong because we are hungry& there are thousands of people waiting at the auto teller& starting to smash& grab.

[Novus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'I') like a lot of the educated guesswork here.

How about these 3?

The mobile phone network goes down.
(with satellite phones)

Internet likewise.

Then while we are freaking out.

We hear rumor that the banking system has collapsed.

We know something is very wrong because we are hungry& there are thousands of people waiting at the auto teller& starting to smash& grab.

[anador]

Well at least we're spending so much in the effort for digital tv.

Imagine, if we had to watch the world collapse on sub-par analog sets.

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')an we get a Target Date on this? The lack of an accurate Doomsday is annoying.

Reverse Engineer

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')i] The only chance the federal government has to extend the end game is to dump the FED and its member banks, let their stock and bond holders die, which would allow some of the smaller local banks to survive. Soon we will find out who owns Washington?

[Blacksmith]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ortune Favors The Bold
Lester Thurow
2003

At some point the systematic and persistent deterioration in America’s trading position is going to have to be confronted. There are only two open questions. When will the inevitable correction occur? When it does occur, will the United States have a hard landing or a soft landing?

The timing is unknown. It is, of course possible that the necessary adjustments will not have to be made in the next few years. A big trade deficit might go on for another twenty years. That outcome is unlikely- but it is not impossible.

Everyone knows what a hard landing would mean – a rapid flight from dollar – denominated assets by both foreigners and Americans and a plunge in the value of the dollar that would make imports so expensive that Americans could no longer afford to buy them. Suddenly losing $450 billion of aggregate demand, the rest of the world would plunge into a recession. The higher interest rates necessary to stem capital flight from America would quickly produce a sharp economic contraction in the United States. Together they would lead to a sharp global downturn.

Given trade deficits of the magnitude now occurring in the United States, there are no historical examples of soft landings. ______________________________________

Whereas the implications of a hard landing are both clear and well known, the economic implications of a soft landing have not been equally clearly spelled out. In a soft landing trade imbalances are solved by the gradual fall in the value of the dollar and by a reduction in the American growth rate relative to that in the rest of the world. When closely examined, a soft landing is almost certain to quickly accelerate into a hard landing.

[patience]

A date for collapse? GEAB, back around the first of the year, predicted the US would default by late Spring to early Summer 2009. They have been pretty accurate so far. As to the shape of it, I think Dmitri Orlov has a useful model in comparing the US to Russia's collapse in the 1990's.

[Byron100]

What I don't understand why the US couldn't just go ahead and declare default, and go to a command economy a la the Soviet Union of the 40's and 50's? I mean, it worked for them for a time, right? The government would give out food coupons so everyone can eat, all rents would be abolished, all debt would be discharged (essentially "freezing" people in their homes, wherever they happen to be), and most private automobiles can be taken off the road, since so few people would need them to go to work, etc.

Then we could go about the process of restarting the economy at a much lower level than before, perhaps at 30% or 40% of former GDP, with less than 25% labor participation rate. About the only thing we'd have to import is oil from Canada - virtually all other trade would cease, of course. It'd not be a comfortable situation by any shot, but at least Americans would be able to eat and have shelter - the two things that are essential to prevent a total, cataclysmic meltdown.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', 'W')hat I don't understand why the US couldn't just go ahead and declare default, and go to a command economy a la the Soviet Union of the 40's and 50's? I mean, it worked for them for a time, right? The government would give out food coupons so everyone can eat, all rents would be abolished, all debt would be discharged (essentially "freezing" people in their homes, wherever they happen to be), and most private automobiles can be taken off the road, since so few people would need them to go to work, etc.

Then we could go about the process of restarting the economy at a much lower level than before, perhaps at 30% or 40% of former GDP, with less than 25% labor participation rate. About the only thing we'd have to import is oil from Canada - virtually all other trade would cease, of course. It'd not be a comfortable situation by any shot, but at least Americans would be able to eat and have shelter - the two things that are essential to prevent a total, cataclysmic meltdown.

[patience]

Quote:
"The banksters would lose out."

THAT is why I believe the Federal Reserve will destroy the currency through too many bailouts and too much printing to support the Treasury. Yes, it is misguided, and everyone knows it would end in failure, but printing is Bernanke's declared answer to the problems, and it is consistent with their policy so far, of kicking the can down the road for just a little more time. I don't think this leopard will change its' spots.

[Byron100]

Another solution for dealing with a total currency collapse I can foresee happening is the break-up of the United States into individual states and/or regions, each of them creating internal currencies that can be used to support some sort of rudimentary economy (food / shelter / essential services).

If they ever declare a Republic of Cascadia, I'll be loading up the pickup truck with my BOC (Bug Out Chest) and headin' west.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', 'W')hat I don't understand why the US couldn't just go ahead and declare default, and go to a command economy a la the Soviet Union of the 40's and 50's? I mean, it worked for them for a time, right? The government would give out food coupons so everyone can eat, all rents would be abolished, all debt would be discharged (essentially "freezing" people in their homes, wherever they happen to be), and most private automobiles can be taken off the road, since so few people would need them to go to work, etc.

Then we could go about the process of restarting the economy at a much lower level than before, perhaps at 30% or 40% of former GDP, with less than 25% labor participation rate. About the only thing we'd have to import is oil from Canada - virtually all other trade would cease, of course. It'd not be a comfortable situation by any shot, but at least Americans would be able to eat and have shelter - the two things that are essential to prevent a total, cataclysmic meltdown.

[jupiters_release]

Good ticker today:

http://market-ticker.org/archives/852-W ... Of-It.html

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'Y')eah, this part of today's Ticker was pretty doomy:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ivil unrest will break out before the end of the year. The Military and Guard will be called up to try to stop it. They won't be able to. Big cities are at risk of becoming a free-fire death zone. If you live in one, figure out how you can get out and live somewhere else if you detect signs that yours is starting to go "feral"; witness New Orleans after Katrina for how fast, and how bad, it can get.

[jupiters_release]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'A')ll this stuff probably will happen, just Denninger always assumes its going to happen NOW. Being wrong on the timeline is bad for his credibility, but nothing he writes is unlikely to happen.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'A')ll this stuff probably will happen, just Denninger always assumes its going to happen NOW. Being wrong on the timeline is bad for his credibility, but nothing he writes is unlikely to happen.

[sihmei]

Markets in free fall again today. More horrific news.

I am finally begining to accept we could be close to losing this whole thing. I thought they would keep it together for a few years with their smoke and mirrors and duct tape, but now I feel we may have just weeks/months before it becomes clear the whole thing is beyond hope and a total collapse of the whole financial system occurs. The whole is clearly utterly broken and nothing anyone seems to be doing is having any positive effect. All we have seen so far could well be just the beginning of this mess.

[Byron100]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sihmei', 'M')arkets in free fall again today. More horrific news.

I am finally begining to accept we could be close to losing this whole thing. I thought they would keep it together for a few years with their smoke and mirrors and duct tape, but now I feel we may have just weeks/months before it becomes clear the whole thing is beyond hope and a total collapse of the whole financial system occurs. The whole is clearly utterly broken and nothing anyone seems to be doing is having any positive effect. All we have seen so far could well be just the beginning of this mess.

[Cid_Yama]

I am just blown away that CNBC allowed Cramer to come on and talk about the Transports being down across the board due to the fact that International Trade has come to a complete halt and adding that to the financials also totally being slaughtered(his word), that there is no bottom in sight.

Might as well just come on and say it's all over and turn out the lights on your way out.

He is right, of course. I'm just amazed he was allowed to say it so bluntly.

OMG, followed by Dillon Radigan coming on and saying AIG engaged in theft and insurance fraud, taking money and offering nothing of value in return.

Let's just beat the markets over the head with a blunt intrument.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', '[')b]International Trade has come to a complete halt