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The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby Grifter » Fri 18 May 2007, 07:54:47

I got as far as

The Shit Most Deffinately Has Started To........

I got stuck there
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Unread postby Pops » Fri 18 May 2007, 14:12:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('untothislast', 'S')ome thoughts for gated/walled/armed compound aspirants everywhere:

Your Walden Pond retreat, will be assailed by anyone who can find it - desperate enough to take from you whatever is at hand - if the government hasn't got there first.


Just to whup the old nag one more time…

So here you are, a hungry urban/suburban/exurban-ite, your choices are to go to the most well-off, walled-off, rent-a-cop protected but probably not well aremed neighborhood in town and do a little burglary/robbery/home invasion

or

Go out to the Redneck Woods and contend with Bubba and his band of Merry (but probably armed) Men.

Which way are you gonna head?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Unread postby What_Went_Wrong » Fri 18 May 2007, 15:39:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EndOfGrowth', 'H')ey Matt, what makes you think the grid is going down? P.O is a liquid fuels crisis, for now anyway...


Very short reply to that is:
the liquid fuel crisis will bring down the economy, and everything thing else, including the grid, will come down with it.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby roccman » Fri 18 May 2007, 15:46:55

I think a bunker in a walled compound is a better idea.

http://photos1.blogger.com/photoInclude ... Buried.jpg
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Unread postby EndOfGrowth » Fri 18 May 2007, 16:52:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('What_Went_Wrong', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EndOfGrowth', 'H')ey Matt, what makes you think the grid is going down? P.O is a liquid fuels crisis, for now anyway...


Very short reply to that is:
the liquid fuel crisis will bring down the economy, and everything thing else, including the grid, will come down with it.


www, would you care to give me the long answer? I can see a nasty PO induced recession coming but I find it hard to envisage a total lights out scenario, unless we have chronic prolonged shortages which could bring about a total collapse.

Matt, any comments?
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Unread postby TheDude » Fri 18 May 2007, 18:22:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'W')hich way are you gonna head?


How are they going to know what way to go without their Blackberries and GPSes? Time to flip a coin. Oh wait, all we have is eCash...

How far out of town do you have to go before you run into gun racks and CSA flags, too? Mostly I see the suburbers poaching chickens from hobby farmers long before they run into any real Deliverance-style action.
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Unread postby Pops » Fri 18 May 2007, 18:44:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'M')ostly I see the suburbers poaching chickens from hobby farmers long before they run into any real Deliverance-style action.


yep.

Hope I can fit in before I need to squeal like a pig.

Ain't got lube like Ms. Savinar.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby retiredguy » Fri 18 May 2007, 18:44:29

Hey Pops,

I was in your neighborhood last summer picking up a locally-made woodstove. I came away with the impression that the bubbas would have a big problem with an athesist like me, even though I do own guns.

I share untothelast's view and plan to hunker down here in the cool, blue north.
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Unread postby threadbear » Fri 18 May 2007, 18:54:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('What_Went_Wrong', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EndOfGrowth', 'H')ey Matt, what makes you think the grid is going down? P.O is a liquid fuels crisis, for now anyway...


Very short reply to that is:
the liquid fuel crisis will bring down the economy, and everything thing else, including the grid, will come down with it.


Try this instead. The economy will collapse anyway, mitigating a liquid fuel collapse. The grid will come down due to privatization, lack of regulation that oversees expansion and maintenance.

So much of the current oil "crisis" is manufactured. The real peak is a little further out than we think, and will be managed quite well. The economy, climate change, water scarcity are problems that are much more immediate.
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Unread postby Tanada » Fri 18 May 2007, 19:57:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('untothislast', 'S')ome thoughts for gated/walled/armed compound aspirants everywhere:

Your Walden Pond retreat, will be assailed by anyone who can find it - desperate enough to take from you whatever is at hand - if the government hasn't got there first.


Just to whup the old nag one more time…

So here you are, a hungry urban/suburban/exurban-ite, your choices are to go to the most well-off, walled-off, rent-a-cop protected but probably not well aremed neighborhood in town and do a little burglary/robbery/home invasion

or

Go out to the Redneck Woods and contend with Bubba and his band of Merry (but probably armed) Men.

Which way are you gonna head?


Pops what you say is all well and good, for the first week or two. After that the gated communities are either over run or have up gunned so that they are equal to the redneck brigade so the surviving exurban/suburban/urbanites who are still around can go either way with equal risk. And these are the smarter ones who survived the first two weeks of civil breakdown.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Unread postby Grifter » Fri 18 May 2007, 20:11:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'S')o much of the current oil "crisis" is manufactured. The real peak is a little further out than we think, and will be managed quite well. The economy, climate change, water scarcity are problems that are much more immediate.


Even if the crisis IS manufactured (which I doubt) then peak oil is still here. A recession will cause a slump so bad, and then we wont ever be able to extract at the same rate again. Ever.

Seems the same as peak oil to me, even if it were manufactured.

I think that even if TPTB could manufacture this then we would all be living more simply and fairly right now.

Unless you mean that market speculation is the same as manufactured. In that case I would agree with you. All boils down to the same thing though.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby Pops » Fri 18 May 2007, 20:44:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('retiredguy', 'H')ey Pops,
I came away with the impression that the bubbas would have a big problem with an athesist like me, even though I do own guns.

You could be right Guy – though I make no bones about my beliefs (similar to yours), I haven’t had a problem fitting in yet.

But then we are not down to the nitty gritty either.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'A')nd these are the smarter ones who survived the first two weeks of civil breakdown.



So they are gonna raid me when the pizza and French Bread is blooming?


Sorry about flailing the nag once more.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby Pops » Fri 18 May 2007, 21:46:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'I') have the impression if things do get nasty people here (east Texas, very much Southern Baptist) will divide up more along racial lines than religious ones...


Yea, that’s a funny thing Shanny.

We have a new neighbor (I can say New because they moved here after us) that came from Maryland.

We don’t get along because we both know it all.

So now I have been labeled a Rebel since I don’t get along with Yankees.

OK.


My wife is Portuguese, and most folks around here take her for Mexican. I have nothing against Mexicans but I take pains to tell Portuguese jokes and get hit upside the head by my wife.

Most of the time I think about tomorrow - some times I am just thinking about the punchline.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Unread postby threadbear » Fri 18 May 2007, 22:32:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Grifter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'S')o much of the current oil "crisis" is manufactured. The real peak is a little further out than we think, and will be managed quite well. The economy, climate change, water scarcity are problems that are much more immediate.


Even if the crisis IS manufactured (which I doubt) then peak oil is still here. A recession will cause a slump so bad, and then we wont ever be able to extract at the same rate again. Ever.

Seems the same as peak oil to me, even if it were manufactured.

I think that even if TPTB could manufacture this then we would all be living more simply and fairly right now.

Unless you mean that market speculation is the same as manufactured. In that case I would agree with you. All boils down to the same thing though.


Oh, I don't know, Grifter. It's important to get it right. If it turns out that development of alternatives was deliberately stifled by the Bush administration, heads should roll. Or...a more likely scenario--that there are viable alternatives under patent and kept off the market intentionally, while everyone on this forum pisses and moans about peak oil, and people are murdered in wars.

Everything we're going to go through, particularly the economic contraction was avoidable. Unfortunately the world is run by war profiteers, oil pirates, and for those who are depressed living in the soul destroying matrix of delusion, there are giant pharmeceuticals to take care of that.

People who have "discovered peak oil" have only stripped off a couple of layers of delusion. There are several more to go.
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Unread postby abelardlindsay » Sat 19 May 2007, 03:17:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('untothislast', 'S')ome thoughts for gated/walled/armed compound aspirants everywhere:

Your Walden Pond retreat, will be assailed by anyone who can find it - desperate enough to take from you whatever is at hand - if the government hasn't got there first.


Just to whup the old nag one more time…

So here you are, a hungry urban/suburban/exurban-ite, your choices are to go to the most well-off, walled-off, rent-a-cop protected but probably not well aremed neighborhood in town and do a little burglary/robbery/home invasion

or

Go out to the Redneck Woods and contend with Bubba and his band of Merry (but probably armed) Men.

Which way are you gonna head?


You people have been reading way too much Sci-Fi.

The only model we have for peak oil is North Korea. People are still eating in the cities. The countryside is full of famine and dire poverty. Do you know any back-to-the-land rural person who doesn't have a truck and drives a lot? No? Ok there you go.

As far as crime, etc. Doesn't matter. Easier to arm oneself and live with crime than to starve to death down some lonely backroad in the mountains. BTW, surviving the die-off will be a team sport not some sort of lone-survivalist fantasy.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby Ebyss » Sat 19 May 2007, 03:54:12

Why is it that people equate rural living with isolation??? What, you think we don't have neighbours down here? Neighbours with guns? Farmers are pretty good shots, and in this country they're pretty much the only people who get regular practice on moving targets.

Seriously - I don't know what you think rural living is about, but isolation ain't it.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby untothislast » Sat 19 May 2007, 05:04:32

The best of luck to Pops, and all others who feel that it just isn't enough to sit back and hope that somebody else - government or community - will have the common sense or initiative to help us work through the situation. I just don't think a psychological retreat into C18 isolationism is likely to work in the C21 age of global surveillance - particularly when you can see, just by scanning through LATOC, the measures being slyly put into place to keep tabs on our every move.

Up to now, we've been a relatively small number of PO info devotees here, but this is about to change pretty quickly. I've never been able to judge whether it's better to make full-on personal preparations, or to work to help educate others in the hope that a rising tide of protest might put pressure on our masters to a) own up to the problem, and b) start coordinating a response. When the bad news has been digested by the rest, the neighbours will suddenly start remembering that mass of provisions you used to offload from your truck, and the government will check through (as the UK government is currently doing with ebay sellers) every transaction you've made for the past few years - one of the very good reasons why governments want to phase out hard currency from the marketplace.

Even before our projected 'Day 1' of PO, martial law will be in place - together with the same sort of provisions to be able to seize any of your goods and home, if deemed for the public good, which many governments had set in place for dealing with Y2K.

All I'm saying, is don't expect to be left alone, and that you'll be needing more than small armaments to deal with a military allowed to use the nastiest and most technological weapons at its disposal - and free to do so, because you will have been demonised by the media as selfish un-(fill in the nationality) survivalists beforehand.

For most of the rest of us (and let's be honest, we'd join you like a shot if the offer was open, just on the small off-chance we might actually get away with it) I still say the logical safeguard is to quietly squirrel away a manageable store of provisions to cope with any prospective shortages. Do this on a rotational basis, starting today if you haven't already.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby Ebyss » Sat 19 May 2007, 05:40:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') still say the logical safeguard is to quietly squirrel away a manageable store of provisions to cope with any prospective shortages.


Why wouldn't you do this in the country too? Stockpiling and rural living are not mutually exclusive. I'm surprised that you think there's anywhere left in the UK to be isolated - bar perhaps the rugged mountains of Scotland, but you'd be hard pressed to survive there, alone or otherwise. Most rural locations come complete with local community, post office, market, school, hardware store, chemist and experienced hunters/gun users. True, there is a lower population density, but it's not like you're going to be sitting in the middle of nowhere in a tiny shack with your gun in one hand and binoculars in the other. Seriously, people have got to stop equating rural living with isolation - in the majority of cases it's just not like that.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ll I'm saying, is don't expect to be left alone, and that you'll be needing more than small armaments to deal with a military allowed to use the nastiest and most technological weapons at its disposal


That applies to the city too. I know I've said it already, but these situations are not mutually exclusive. Pretty much all options are on the table no matter where you live - the difference between living in the city and countryside is that in the countryside you have the space to grow your own food. Whether you do or not is another thing entirely. I know of people who live a pretty self-sufficient life in the city (read Dolly Freed's book "Possum Living"), I know of people who lead extremely wasteful lives in the country. I just don't understand why people assume rural=isolation and city=stockpiles of food and ammo. Some of the loneliest and most isolated people I know live in cities.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') just don't think a psychological retreat into C18 isolationism is likely to work


You're right - it won't.
We've tried nothin' and we're all out of ideas.

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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby untothislast » Sat 19 May 2007, 07:10:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', 'W')hy is it that people equate rural living with isolation??? What, you think we don't have neighbours down here? . . .
Seriously - I don't know what you think rural living is about, but isolation ain't it.


The point I'm making, is that the 'Peak Oil Crisis' actually begins the day the public at large fully realises its full implications (economic and social) - which will obviously be well before any real supply shortages kick in.
At that point, wherever you are - and if you have arable land and a stock of supplies to hand - enforced and secretive isolation will become the only option, if only because 'Night of the Living Dead' hordes will have gone into panic overload, after waking up to the fact that the supermarkets which sustain them are likely to remain permanently empty.

The ruling elite will enforce draconian control measures; starting with curfews and the issue of ration books to restore public order. Then it will want to know where everyone is, using their databases of National Insurance numbers, welfare and social security records and so on. Those in rural communities will have land-holdings and facilities 'seconded' from day one. Unless you inhabit a network of subterranean caves, or live so deeply in the backwoods that not even thermal imaging is likely to pick you out, you would be well advised to stay as isolated as is humanly possible.

Don't get me wrong - if you have the resources and the wits to go about it, it's by far the preferred option. But don't think for a second you can escape, for long, the fallout of what's about to engulf us all.

(By the way, if anyone out there does have a gated/walled/armed compound . . . could I have the address?)
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby Twilight » Sat 19 May 2007, 08:07:30

Without a cataclysmic above-ground event, I don't think there will be any mass public realisation. Awareness will grow gradually, and alarm at the implications will follow growth in awareness the same way production lags discovery.

People are basically too stupid to see it all at once. They will see the trees but not the wood. Inflation, falling incomes, unemployment, crime, and before they realise logistically-inflicted shortages are on their way and empty the shelves, they will first be unable to buy most of the stuff on the shelves.

The majority will feel economic and social implications before they understand the underlying reasons. The temptation to blame the enemy within or without will be strong, and some countries will go to the grave not knowing what caused their madness.

Unless there is a global financial meltdown (even then the blame will fall on the meltdown), people across the world are not going to say at breakfast, "Honey, the global economic system is coming to an end because of resource constraints to fossil fuel extraction, deferred energy system maintenance and industry demographics. Let's go do a run on the bank and load up the pickup at Costco."

Actually I'm not sure a run on the bank is even possible in a country without savings.

Anyway, what I'm saying is that in a long emergency lacking catalysing political or economic events, there won't be panic until utilities fail.
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