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The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby mmasters » Mon 21 May 2007, 14:32:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'T')he system is remarkably robust, provided you stay within design limits.
The pipeline network was not designed to run dry.

It's like any machine. There is an optmal, steady-state, at which a machine will happily operate at. Go out of spec. and you get problems. Go way out, to where people didn't think you could go, and you get disasters.

Could it be slowed down dramatically or some such to protect the system?
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby RdSnt » Mon 21 May 2007, 16:28:25

Well, some of the damage could be mitigated, but only to a very limited extent.

I'll answer it with a question to you.
How do you shut down New York? The whole thing, turn off the water, the sewage systems, the electricity, everything. How many people would cooperate? Who would pay for it? What are the ramifications of such a shut-down. What happens to the rest of the state? The country? And in the case of New York, the world?

This is the sort of complexity we are discussing.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby RdSnt » Mon 21 May 2007, 16:31:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'W')hat works is what stays.


If it ain't broke, don't fix it. This sounds like one of many Manhattan Projects we'll be demanding the Gov undertake soon. While paying off our debt at the same time... :-x


How are you going to fuel your Manhattan Projects?
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby Ebyss » Mon 21 May 2007, 16:42:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', '
')
How are you going to fuel your Manhattan Projects?


With voodoo of course.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby mmasters » Mon 21 May 2007, 16:47:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'W')ell, some of the damage could be mitigated, but only to a very limited extent.

I'll answer it with a question to you.
How do you shut down New York? The whole thing, turn off the water, the sewage systems, the electricity, everything. How many people would cooperate? Who would pay for it? What are the ramifications of such a shut-down. What happens to the rest of the state? The country? And in the case of New York, the world?

This is the sort of complexity we are discussing.

Well during the summer months they turn off lighting in many buildings, lobbies and such and light in offices where there's natural light. It's a lightweight powerdown of sorts. If there's enough warning that the supply is going to be disrupted could the network not go into a powerdown mode with the help of some higher authority, state or federal government perhaps? I suppose though you're talking about a powerdown that goes below the systems capacity to stay running smoothly which I can now see is a big problem to be aware of.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby mmasters » Mon 21 May 2007, 18:45:39

Could seawater be run through the system as a temporary substitute?
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby SevenTen » Mon 21 May 2007, 20:33:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'W')ell, some of the damage could be mitigated, but only to a very limited extent.

I'll answer it with a question to you.
How do you shut down New York? The whole thing, turn off the water, the sewage systems, the electricity, everything. How many people would cooperate? Who would pay for it? What are the ramifications of such a shut-down. What happens to the rest of the state? The country? And in the case of New York, the world?

This is the sort of complexity we are discussing.

And we haven't even addressed what happens after you shut down New York.

A large part of New Orleans was involuntarily shut down two years ago. With an entire country intact around it, New Orleans still hasn't recovered.

With so many people in power that would lose so much in a power-down or a shut-down, there would be virtually no political will to even discuss something like this, much less implement it. Only a grass-roots public movement would have a chance at addressing it ... and have you tried talking to anyone about "peak oil", or "overpopulation", watch their eyes glaze over, watch them lose interest, or watch them get angry.

A transition to a "new way of life" would be an inherently traumatic event for most people. In the best case scenario, getting people to do something they don't want to is like getting them to eat a shit sandwich: they may eat it, but they won't like it, or you afterward.

How do you go about selling someone an end to their way of life, their hopes and dreams? "Follow me, and I promise you that your standard of living will rapidly decline and things will get continually worse. And expect a dramatically shorter life span. And you'll have to actually talk to your neighbors and learn to get along with them. And get off your fat ass and do something. And use your brain."

Buy a lottery ticket, better chance of success.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Mon 21 May 2007, 20:49:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'W')hat works is what stays.


If it ain't broke, don't fix it. This sounds like one of many Manhattan Projects we'll be demanding the Gov undertake soon. While paying off our debt at the same time... :-x


How are you going to fuel your Manhattan Projects?


Mice/rats in wheels attached to dynamos. They are renewable as they breed like crap, will eat any old crap thats fed to them and won't complain. And it will sort out overnight urban area vermin problems. And when their batteries run out, Feed them to cats or something.

Which is something thats always bothered me being a cat owner. Why is it that fish food is ALWAYS made out of fish that a cat will never chase in its life, being as the food is from the sea. If memory serves, Cats and water don't mix. Why do we never feed them pigeon or mouse? Although I think i saw catfood made out of beef once. But tell me, when was the last time you saw a domesticated cat attack a cow?

I know its off topic, just needed to get that off my chest.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby RdSnt » Mon 21 May 2007, 20:55:41

Too corrosive.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'C')ould seawater be run through the system as a temporary substitute?
Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby RdSnt » Mon 21 May 2007, 21:03:16

Good description, thanks.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SevenTen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', '
')And we haven't even addressed what happens after you shut down New York.

A large part of New Orleans was involuntarily shut down two years ago. With an entire country intact around it, New Orleans still hasn't recovered.

With so many people in power that would lose so much in a power-down or a shut-down, there would be virtually no political will to even discuss something like this, much less implement it. Only a grass-roots public movement would have a chance at addressing it ... and have you tried talking to anyone about "peak oil", or "overpopulation", watch their eyes glaze over, watch them lose interest, or watch them get angry.

A transition to a "new way of life" would be an inherently traumatic event for most people. In the best case scenario, getting people to do something they don't want to is like getting them to eat a shit sandwich: they may eat it, but they won't like it, or you afterward.

How do you go about selling someone an end to their way of life, their hopes and dreams? "Follow me, and I promise you that your standard of living will rapidly decline and things will get continually worse. And expect a dramatically shorter life span. And you'll have to actually talk to your neighbors and learn to get along with them. And get off your fat ass and do something. And use your brain."

Buy a lottery ticket, better chance of success.
Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby Twilight » Mon 21 May 2007, 21:08:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SevenTen', '[')b]How do you go about selling someone an end to their way of life, their hopes and dreams? "Follow me, and I promise you that your standard of living will rapidly decline and things will get continually worse. And expect a dramatically shorter life span. And you'll have to actually talk to your neighbors and learn to get along with them. And get off your fat ass and do something. And use your brain."

You don't. It's a waste of time. I doubt there is anyone on this forum who learned about peak oil from a lecture. Everyone seems to have encountered it alone, either by reading or professional experience. Conversations probably only shed light on existing suspicion.

The best way forward is to let people ride it and self-select. We know we can avoid the first traps. Look out for yourself. Don't look out for people with their eyes glued to the sports channel or living off credit cards. They're in a trap already.

Official thinking is going to be along similar lines. If a city is isolated, no-one is going to be around to improve your chances. That responsibility is yours. When infrastructure crumbles, the admin is going to be worrying about the things it can change, not the things it can't. That means the population must adapt without micromanagement. In fact, there isn't even going to be a booklet. People who actually need to be handed an inch-thick civil defence pack to overcome adversity are not going to benefit from it anyway.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Mon 21 May 2007, 21:40:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SevenTen', '[')b]How do you go about selling someone an end to their way of life, their hopes and dreams? "Follow me, and I promise you that your standard of living will rapidly decline and things will get continually worse. And expect a dramatically shorter life span. And you'll have to actually talk to your neighbors and learn to get along with them. And get off your fat ass and do something. And use your brain."

You don't. It's a waste of time. I doubt there is anyone on this forum who learned about peak oil from a lecture. Everyone seems to have encountered it alone, either by reading or professional experience. Conversations probably only shed light on existing suspicion.

The best way forward is to let people ride it and self-select. We know we can avoid the first traps. Look out for yourself. Don't look out for people with their eyes glued to the sports channel or living off credit cards. They're in a trap already.

Official thinking is going to be along similar lines. If a city is isolated, no-one is going to be around to improve your chances. That responsibility is yours. When infrastructure crumbles, the admin is going to be worrying about the things it can change, not the things it can't. That means the population must adapt without micromanagement. In fact, there isn't even going to be a booklet. People who actually need to be handed an inch-thick civil defence pack to overcome adversity are not going to benefit from it anyway.


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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby retiredguy » Tue 22 May 2007, 10:47:48

Follow the Boy Scout motto: Be Prepared.

Damn good advice.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding

Unread postby roccman » Tue 22 May 2007, 10:54:17

"Follow the Boy Scout motto: Be Prepared. "

Careful...too prepared and one will think you a lunatic.

That's what they don't tell you in boy scouts.
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