[nella]

I just heard here in the US 40% of the population live paycheck to paycheck. Really, I quess I should have known that, but I was shocked none the less.
The implications of that number are beyond worrisome in the times coming.

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cyrus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]pstarr said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') agree with this assessment with several caveats. I think powerful interests will use the federal army to protect essential national infrastructures including ports, agricultural processing, significant factories, major power stations.

[roccman]

"to protect essential national infrastructures including ports, agricultural processing, significant factories, major power stations. "

Ruppert advocated this and the let 'um burn theory.

I agree that cities will burn, but the ability of the government to "protect essential national infrastructure" is absurd.

High voltage powerlines that criss cross the country to this "national infrastructure" are unprotectable...as too are pipelines.

A few well placed 300 Weatherby Mags into transformers...a few footings pulled from under transmission towers...a few sections of pipelines uncoupled and this "national infrastructure" goes away.

Yes they will attempt to keep lights on, but to no avail.

I have always thought steel framed electric transmission towers with a few pieces of 4x8 plywood would make good sniper posts and look out towers.

Of course I advocate none of this activity. Just attempting to point out the obvious.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EndOfGrowth', 'M')att, I'm a little ignorant on this issue, what makes you think the grid will fail just because fuel becomes more expensive? What about government subsidies?

[RdSnt]

I'm going to stick another little bit of information here regarding how the infrastructure could collapse suddenly.

It's a rather obscure piece of hydralic knowledge that you should be aware of.
There is a minimum amount of petroleum you need in the pipeline systems throughout North America, in order for them to work. Some may have notice late in 2005 there was some flutter of worry because of the Alaskan oilfield problems, coupled with some Canadian pipeline faults.
They came perilously close to breaching the lower limit of the pipeline capacity.
What happens then is that you can't maintain pressure and the system can suddenly collapse.

You can have a system collapse and have 100,000+ barrels of oil stranded in the pipes.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'y')ikes. I am sh#ting my pants. right now.

[Novus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'I')'m going to stick another little bit of information here regarding how the infrastructure could collapse suddenly.

It's a rather obscure piece of hydralic knowledge that you should be aware of.
There is a minimum amount of petroleum you need in the pipeline systems throughout North America, in order for them to work. Some may have notice late in 2005 there was some flutter of worry because of the Alaskan oilfield problems, coupled with some Canadian pipeline faults.
They came perilously close to breaching the lower limit of the pipeline capacity.
What happens then is that you can't maintain pressure and the system can suddenly collapse.

You can have a system collapse and have 100,000+ barrels of oil stranded in the pipes.

[EndOfGrowth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('purcatty', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EndOfGrowth', 'M')att, I'm a little ignorant on this issue, what makes you think the grid will fail just because fuel becomes more expensive? What about government subsidies?

[bshirt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('untothislast', ' ')That being said, who would dispute the contention that government, generally, is crap at helping you out - but is absolutely on the mark at organising itself whenever it needs to control the process of getting something from you?

[RdSnt]

I'm glad you got the central point of what I was saying, in that North American supply is much more sensitive than the vast majority would think.
The quantities in the pipes is tallied as inventory, not surprisingly since it's been paid for and delivery schedules have been established that are normally very predicatable.

However, when talking about infrastructure you need to consider the whole system, meaning the protocols that are used to run the system, the personnel, not just the hardware.
Localized shutdowns are routine; do to maintainence, leaks, whatever.
If people are smart and they can see supply problems, there should be progressive shutdowns on a priority list, to keep primary lines up for longer.
Yet, this is an enormous system attached to other incredibly complicated systems. Such as the refineries, and distribution networks.
Refineries have a different type of shutdown schedule and likely need to start winding down before the pipes are empty.

I've worked on much of the equipment that sustains the pipelines. As an example, the pumps that maintain line pressure, particularly in the north, are diesel engines. In most cases these engines have been in continuous operation for decades. I rebuilt one that was originally an engine from a WWII submarine.
When you turn that type of equipment off, there is no guarantee that it can be restarted. Pipes that have been under pressure will shrink and leak, values will jam. A cascading series of, normally minor, problems will make a re-start slow.

Consider the big electrical blackout a few years ago. It started with a relatively minor problem that cascaded into a much bigger one.
More importantly though, restart was very slow, and a lot of equipment failed on restart. Much of the manpower had no experience with this size of problem and it took days just to clarify the protocols and levels of authority.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'I')'m going to stick another little bit of information here regarding how the infrastructure could collapse suddenly.

It's a rather obscure piece of hydralic knowledge that you should be aware of.
There is a minimum amount of petroleum you need in the pipeline systems throughout North America, in order for them to work. Some may have notice late in 2005 there was some flutter of worry because of the Alaskan oilfield problems, coupled with some Canadian pipeline faults.
They came perilously close to breaching the lower limit of the pipeline capacity.
What happens then is that you can't maintain pressure and the system can suddenly collapse.

You can have a system collapse and have 100,000+ barrels of oil stranded in the pipes.

[Niagara]

RdSnt, what a remarkably insightful post. That's what I love about this PO.com forum, the wide range and depth of information from "hands on" folks. Best on the net IMO.

I rely less and less on the garbage the MSM spews out. No, scratch that. The MSM makes a great contrarian indicator.

[RdSnt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'S')imply putting a little more oil back in the pipeline would get the system moving again.

[EndOfGrowth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'I')'m glad you got the central point of what I was saying, in that North American supply is much more sensitive than the vast majority would think.
The quantities in the pipes is tallied as inventory, not surprisingly since it's been paid for and delivery schedules have been established that are normally very predicatable.

However, when talking about infrastructure you need to consider the whole system, meaning the protocols that are used to run the system, the personnel, not just the hardware.
Localized shutdowns are routine; do to maintainence, leaks, whatever.
If people are smart and they can see supply problems, there should be progressive shutdowns on a priority list, to keep primary lines up for longer.
Yet, this is an enormous system attached to other incredibly complicated systems. Such as the refineries, and distribution networks.
Refineries have a different type of shutdown schedule and likely need to start winding down before the pipes are empty.

I've worked on much of the equipment that sustains the pipelines. As an example, the pumps that maintain line pressure, particularly in the north, are diesel engines. In most cases these engines have been in continuous operation for decades. I rebuilt one that was originally an engine from a WWII submarine.
When you turn that type of equipment off, there is no guarantee that it can be restarted. Pipes that have been under pressure will shrink and leak, values will jam. A cascading series of, normally minor, problems will make a re-start slow.

Consider the big electrical blackout a few years ago. It started with a relatively minor problem that cascaded into a much bigger one.
More importantly though, restart was very slow, and a lot of equipment failed on restart. Much of the manpower had no experience with this size of problem and it took days just to clarify the protocols and levels of authority.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'I')'m going to stick another little bit of information here regarding how the infrastructure could collapse suddenly.

It's a rather obscure piece of hydralic knowledge that you should be aware of.
There is a minimum amount of petroleum you need in the pipeline systems throughout North America, in order for them to work. Some may have notice late in 2005 there was some flutter of worry because of the Alaskan oilfield problems, coupled with some Canadian pipeline faults.
They came perilously close to breaching the lower limit of the pipeline capacity.
What happens then is that you can't maintain pressure and the system can suddenly collapse.

You can have a system collapse and have 100,000+ barrels of oil stranded in the pipes.

[RdSnt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EndOfGrowth', '
')
Rdsnt, it's interesting to learn that oil in the US is pumped with oil. I would have thought they would be using massive electric motors powered via coal/nukes. It's sounds like a pretty archaic and vunerable system to me which relates to what The dude has said about the grid. When the first domino falls...

[bshirt]

RdSnt;

Thanks for sharing your expertise! I'm surprised at how fragile the pipelines and distribution for our nations really are. In many cases there's no quick alternatives, huh?

wow....downright scary.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'W')hat works is what stays.

[RdSnt]

The system is remarkably robust, provided you stay within design limits.
The pipeline network was not designed to run dry.

It's like any machine. There is an optimal, steady-state, at which a machine will happily operate at. Go out of spec. and you get problems. Go way out, to where people didn't think you could go, and you get disasters.

You could generalize the pipeline problem to the entire Peak Oil problem.
We are entering a time within which our entire, 1st world, system of living is not designed for. Our entire living infrastructure has a relatively narrow design specification. Just like the pipeline, there is a minimum level of petroleum input that it can run at. Below that level and the systems failures cascade.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bshirt', 'R')dSnt;

Thanks for sharing your expertise! I'm surprised at how fragile the pipelines and distribution for our nations really are. In many cases there's no quick alternatives, huh?

wow....downright scary.