[frankthetank]

I wouldn't sound the alarms yet, but if it doesn't warm up and dry out soon, yields are going to start taking a hit. We NEED a huge crop again, and right now that doesn't look likely. With this...



not helping.

Its in the 40's up here right now...not sure what soil temps are doing, but i'm guessing they are low/moist. Corn needs HEAT and lots of it.

[Eli]

Doob I hear you about the cold.

Man it has been noticeably cooler then past springs, I think it is the coolest spring in 11 years.

[buzzard]

Dooberheim, SD_Scott- I'm just a hair south or you guys and I definitely see it here too. Standing water in places where I have never seen it before. Yesterday we got hit with what I can only describe as a cold monsoon wave of water that made it almost a white-out. Now this morning cold wind which is tearing the leaves off the trees.

I have watched the days go by one after the other when I should have planted but could not. The inside of my house is becoming a jungle of seedlings needing a place to go. If I don't get these plants in the ground soon I will have to start over.

How thin is the edge we have in global food supplies? Thin enough that all it takes is a hiccough from Mama Nature to throw us into a disaster from which we may not recover. I have a bad feeling about this summer.

[shortonoil]

Virginia - colder than hell here. Lived here for 9 years and have never seen a spring as wet and cold as what we are getting. I just went in an turned the heat back on and shut the windows. The winter wheat crop seems to be doing alright, but the soybeans haven’t even started. The only thing growing well is the dam lawn!

On the coast here I suspect the temperature may be being affected by the slowing of Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream is 500 miles further out to sea than it was just a few years ago, so we aren’t getting much heat from the warm tropical waters. The reason for the colder temperatures in the mid section of the country must be arctic in origin. Maybe we are entering another ice age? Our 10,000 year interglacial should be about up. If it starts snowing and snows for 20 years straight, we’ll know what it is!

[Eli]

Short, I would put just as much money on an ice age as I would global warming. The Sun is entering into a cycle in which its out put is supposed to decline significantly.

I got to go through hail larger than golf balls this year, let me tell you that was not fun at all. We just paid to put a new roof it was a 50 year roof that lasted 3. I have a rubbermaid trashcan that has 4 large holes through the top of it. The storm was humbling to say the least.

[SD_Scott]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('buzzard', 'D')ooberheim, SD_Scott- I'm just a hair south or you guys and I definitely see it here too. Standing water in places where I have never seen it before. Yesterday we got hit with what I can only describe as a cold monsoon wave of water that made it almost a white-out. Now this morning cold wind which is tearing the leaves off the trees.

I have watched the days go by one after the other when I should have planted but could not. The inside of my house is becoming a jungle of seedlings needing a place to go. If I don't get these plants in the ground soon I will have to start over.

How thin is the edge we have in global food supplies? Thin enough that all it takes is a hiccough from Mama Nature to throw us into a disaster from which we may not recover. I have a bad feeling about this summer.

[DantesPeak]

Delayed planting has deffered some diesel demand. Had spring farm demand for diesel hit about the same time as recent strike problems in Europe, there may have been scattered deisel shortgages in the US. As it is the retail price of diesel is up 50% in a relatively short time period.

In the longer term, if the US experiences colder years, upward pressure on the price of diesel - and therefore on oil - will be persistent.

[Homesteader]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'I')n the longer term, if the US experiences colder years, upward pressure on the price of diesel - and therefore on oil - will be persistent.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'I')n the longer term, if the US experiences colder years, upward pressure on the price of diesel - and therefore on oil - will be persistent.

[Homesteader]

Ok, I hadn't linked diesel to heating oil to cooler weather to increased demand.

Thanks for clarifying.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'O')verall US oil demand may have dropped about 100,000 bpd so far this year

[Pops]

I mentioned this a couple weeks ago in another thread. Here is corn section of the USDA supply and demand report from Friday:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')COARSE GRAINS: The 2008/09 U.S. feed grains outlook is for lower production, strong domestic demand, and lower ending stocks. The 2008/09 corn crop is projected at 12.1 billion bushels, down 7 percent from the record 2007/08 crop. Planted area is from producer intentions reported in Prospective Plantings. Harvested area is based on historical abandonment and derived demand for silage. The yield is projected at 153.9 bushels per acre, 1 bushel per acre below the 1990-2007 trend
WASDE-458-2 based on the slower-than-average pace of planting as reported in Crop Progress. The projected yield assumes a mid-May planting progress near the 10-year average and reflective of last year’s May planting pace. Corn supplies fall 870 million bushels from the 2007/08 record with a small increase in carryin more than offset by the projected 949-million-bushel reduction in output. Higher year-to-year
beginning stocks reflect this month’s 100-million-bushel reduction in 2007/08 corn use for ethanol.

Total U.S. corn use in 2008/09 is projected down 2 percent as reductions in feed and residual use and exports more than offset a continued expansion in ethanol production. Feed and residual use is
projected down 14 percent as corn feeding declines with increased production of distillers grains, higher corn prices, and reduced red meat production. Corn exports are projected down 16 percent as
U.S. supplies face increased world competition with increased foreign production and a sharp drop in EU-27 imports. Ethanol use is projected at 4 billion bushels, up 33 percent from 2007/08. The slowing
pace of plant construction and expansion, and lower capacity utilization are expected to modestly dampen growth in ethanol corn use. With total corn use expected to exceed production by 635 million bushels, ending stocks are projected down 45 percent. At 763 million bushels, ending stocks would be the lowest since 1995/96. The season-average price is projected at $5.00 to $6.00 per bushel, well above the current year’s forecast record of $4.10 to $4.40 per bushel.

Global coarse grains production for 2008/09 is projected at 1.1 billion tons, up slightly from the current year record, despite the year-to-year decline in U.S. corn output. Foreign coarse-grain production is
expected to increase 4 percent from 2007/08. World coarse grain output reflects year-to-year increases in projected corn production in Argentina, Brazil, China, EU-27, and FSU-12. World coarse
grain output is also boosted by a recovery in barley production in Australia, EU-27, and FSU-12.

Global coarse grain imports and exports are projected to decline in 2008/09 mostly reflecting lower EU-27 corn and sorghum imports and lower U.S. corn exports. Global coarse grain feeding is projected
lower with declines in U.S. corn feeding more than offsetting the increase in foreign corn feeding.
World coarse grain ending stocks are projected to fall 6 percent as declines in U.S. corn ending stocks more than offset increases elsewhere. At the projected 99.0 million tons, 2008/09 global corn ending stocks are expected to hit a 25-year low.

[Ludi]

We've had almost no spring rain down here, so I doubt much is going to grow. Maybe one cutting of hay, a little sorghum....

The grass came out of winter dormancy and almost immediately began going into summer dormancy. Very little growth.

[PhebaAndThePilgrim]

Good day from Pheba, from the farm:
Rain, rain rain. We had another inch day before yesterday.
One of our neighbors planted his corn in four wheel drive to get through the mud.
Sounds crazy to us, because corn seed rots if the ground stays too wet.
One of our neighbors just spent twenty-six thousand dollars putting down fertilizer for 100 acres of corn. That is just a 110/80/80 mix of nitrogen/potash/phosphate. Not a heavy application by any means.
Now, what if he can't get the corn in the ground?
I highly recommend a program on public television called "Market to Market".
Great insights into agriculture.
Comes from the University of Iowa.
It is very conservative, and somewhat linked to economists.
That means it can be a tad unrealistic, but if you are willing to be patient and sit through the half hour show every week, you can
put together a bigger picture coming through the hype.
The program airs on Friday evenings, on Channel 6, PBS, in our area. One half hour.
I hope most of you can find it available in your area.
Pheba.
PS. We did not buy any fertilizer for our hay crop this year. Fertilizer prices doubled from $2,500.00 for 100 acres, to over $5,000.00 for 100 acres (low nitrogen, potash, phosphate mix)
Hubby piled up manure in lots. Made several huge mounds.
We will let it cook a while, then get the manure spreader up and running and see what we can accomplish.
Most cow/calf operators agree the only solution is to sell half of the herd to survive financially.
It's gonna be a strange years in ag.

[centralstump]

All of our corn is in, and we only have a half section of soybeans still not in.

Nebraska is north of the moisture, but it is still colder than normal here.

[Eli]

I got this from a thread over at the ticker forum it is an excerpt from Kiplingers Business report.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')une and July will be exceptionally critical for U.S. corn.
If the growing weather is poor, the U.S. will run out of corn
before the 2009 crop arrives...unfathomable for the world’s top grower
of corn. Persistent spring rain severely delayed corn planting from Mo.
and southern Ind. and Ill. through Ohio and Pa., reducing overall acreage
to around 87 million acres, or 2 million acres short of what is needed
for livestock, exports and ethanol production until fall 2009. Worse,
tardy seeding means late maturity, shaving yields. Then, the same fields
may pollinate as summer heat reaches its peak...a huge risk for the crop.

Odds of market panic are 50-50 with June 30’s corn acreage report
from USDA, though nervous traders have already run the price over $6/bu.
USDA projects that even with a normal yield...impossible this year...
stocks will fall to a 21-day supply before Sept. 2009. That’s far below
the usual 100-day supply at the marketing year’s end just before harvest.
Growers are keeping their fingers crossed for normal weather
to avert severe shortages. They can take some solace in the fact
that the Southwest and the South will receive healthy rains once more.

[Jack]

Good for those with appropriate investments...

Bad for those without.

[Denny]

But, I seem to recall back two years ago, when Bush was pimping the ethanol from corn idea, he said we'd always have to remember to leave enough for people and for the farm animals too.

Gosh, looks like once again, you can't believe Bush, even cows and pigs can't believe Bush!

Betsy the cow will not be very happy!

[Ludi]

My chickens and especially my turkeys won't be happy. The turkeys are completely spoiled and only want to eat cracked corn - they don't like whole corn.

[joelcolorado]

The price of corn is small part of the cost of the cow or pig. But, it costs the FARMER more for sure. Of course, the farmer is always a whiner who gets govt money for doing nothing often. I know, I have some land that is never planted and get money for that. How in the world i dont know? I bought it for a house and left it idle but it has wheat base and I get a check every year. No idea why and no one can tell me. Just said to cash the check as it would cost more to take it out of the program than the money I get paid. hahh..
I love america.