[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'U')m...

How can it be down by 6% but be a record yield? Last time I looked, the pertinent definition of "record" was "An unsurpassed measurement: a world record in weightlifting; a record for cold weather.", not something that is down 6% from last year.

Next we'll hear "Oil production set a record this year at 60mb/d, down only 7% from last year!"

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoxV', 'L')ies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

Yields are up but production is down. Sounds like less acres are growing but the ones that are are doing very well.

I'm suspecting that soy bean production increase is also a factor. Soy bean and corn production are only profitable if you rotate between the two from year to year. So a lot of fields that were corn last year have been switched out for soybean.

Yield is only relevant to an individual farm's profitability. At the end of the day, production is still down and the doomers are no more or less doomed than anybody else.

can anybody put this into perspective to demand growth from last year.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '[')Congrats, American farmers, great work.

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '[')Congrats, American farmers, great work.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'U')m...

How can it be down by 6% but be a record yield? Last time I looked, the pertinent definition of "record" was "An unsurpassed measurement: a world record in weightlifting; a record for cold weather.", not something that is down 6% from last year.

Next we'll hear "Oil production set a record this year at 60mb/d, down only 7% from last year!"

[lorenzo]

Joe-wp, it's not an ad hominem - you simply demonstrate to have no insight into what is perhaps the most basic of thoughts in agricultural economics.

So I will explain it to you (I feel a bit embarrased for having to do this):

Yield per acre and the number of acres planted are two different things.

If you plant 100 acres and you reach a yield of 100 bushels per acre, you get a total production of 10,000 bushels.

If, the next year, you plant only 50 acres but you reach a yield of 150 acres, you have obtained much higher yields, but a lower total production, in this case 7500 bushels.

That's why the USDA forecast predicts record yields, but a 6% drop in total output.

It's not really that difficult, is it?

[dirthoser]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '
')Doom and gloomers are ....once again. But this has become a routine by now.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'U')m...

How can it be down by 6% but be a record yield? Last time I looked, the pertinent definition of "record" was "An unsurpassed measurement: a world record in weightlifting; a record for cold weather.", not something that is down 6% from last year.

Next we'll hear "Oil production set a record this year at 60mb/d, down only 7% from last year!"

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'U')m...

How can it be down by 6% but be a record yield? Last time I looked, the pertinent definition of "record" was "An unsurpassed measurement: a world record in weightlifting; a record for cold weather.", not something that is down 6% from last year.

Next we'll hear "Oil production set a record this year at 60mb/d, down only 7% from last year!"

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dirthoser', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '
')Doom and gloomers are ....once again. But this has become a routine by now.

[FoxV]

A lot of Strawman'ing going on here

Lorenzo, the situation is very simple
Record high prices + Declining Production = Much higher prices

Saying this is the second largest, largest, or off the charts record is irrelevant to the equation above. This is why I wanted to know about the Demand side because there is another simple equation

Demand Up + Production Down = Much higher prices

At the end of the day, the US can be producing mountains of corn, but if you can't afford it, you can't eat it.

And also as Frank the tank said
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', ' ')I'll wait until the combines are in the field before commenting.

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')t's interesting that the record corn harvest was in 1933 during the height of the the depression.

Lorenzo, I guess monocrop agriculture doesn't help the working man after all, contrary to your techtopian predilections.

[lorenzo]

Interesting: scientists find the enzyme that codes for cold tolerance in C4 plants, which normally only grow in warm climates:
C4 plants are far more photosynthetically efficient than C3 plants. C4 = sugarcane, sorghum, corn, etc... tropical plants. C3 plants = wheat, rice, etc...

Now Miscanthus x giganteus is a C4 plant, but it has an exceptional cold tolerance, setting it apart from other C4 crops. The scientists analysed why this is so, found the enzyme, copied the trigger, introduced it into corn, and voila, now they have a corn plant that can grow for longer periods of time in existing areas, or in entirely new, higher latitudes with colder temperatures.

The same technique can be applied to other crops like sugarcane and sorghum and lotsa tropical grass species. Cool! Source

Oh yes, by the way, last week other scientists announced they had made drought-tolerant corn varieties. Already commercially available. None of the two breeding techniques require genetic modification. They're both based on traditional cross breeding (but nowadays that's done with some nice genetic and molecular information tools and with fast computers).

I'm not saying that this kind of breakthroughs, individually, are going to solve peak oil or the current food crisis. But if you repeat them enough, for enough crops and for enough processes, then surely they will make a difference.

There are now more brains and supercomputers involved in biotechnology and plant biology, than ever before in the history of mankind. And the number just keeps growing. The number of breakthroughs, the amount of knowledge and number of applications grows *exponentially*.

I predict that before the year 2015 scientists will have developed at least 5 entirely safe, non-GM grain crops, capable of yielding 5 tons of grain with minimal inputs, in the vast expanse of land known as Siberia. Mark my words. The Beginning is Near!

[Sys1]

Scientists and supercomputers should have figured out that it won't be necessary to grow cold tolerant corn as toundra will be quite warm in 2030...

[Southpaw]

The only biofuel that maybe will have a future someday is Oilgae if it ever gets competitive, I believe

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Southpaw', 'T')he only biofuel that maybe will have a future someday is Oilgae if it ever gets competitive, I believe

[mrobert]

Hey ... how about we make biofuels from Christmas trees?

And has anyone thought how fertile the land in the Tundra is? ... or isn't?

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', 'H')ey ... how about we make biofuels from Christmas trees?

[zoidberg]

I dont think there'd be too many biofuel crops coming from that land before the tundra soil is depleted. Try again!