Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Corn Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: USDA says less corn acreage this year

Unread postby Chaparral » Fri 31 Mar 2006, 20:02:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daculling', 'H')ow come the "ethanol solution" is not taking up the slack?


The ethanol demand has already been factored into the corn prices. A few weeks ago weather concerns combined with speculation drove May contract prices up to 2.40 USD per bushel. It rained and the trend-following funds bailed out and the price fell to 2.17 per bushel last week. Foreign orders then kicked in big time and the price worked itself back up to 2.34 and then 2.28 before this mornings bombshell drove it to 2.36.
The CBOT and other analysts warned during the run from 2.38 to 2.40 that while ethanol demand is inelastic (in that it's mandated by law in some states) they can only build the plants so fast and apparently many of the ethanol plants are running flat out and cannot consume corn at rates higher than they are already doing. It is expected that new plants coming online in '06-07 will increase demand. If the weather doesn't cooperate, we could see prices north of $3.00 USD per bushel. Use to ending stock ratio could dip below 10% which is unusually low by next year.

It is also interesting to note that some of the newer strains of corn are surprisingly drought resistant. High yields were achieved last year in spite of the drought in parts of the corn belt.

If were going to burn food as fuel, I'd at least like to see a strain of perennial corn developed.
User avatar
Chaparral
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 767
Joined: Sun 14 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Dead civilization walking

Re: USDA says less corn acreage this year

Unread postby donshan » Fri 31 Mar 2006, 20:20:46

New gasoline specs go into effect this year phasing out the octane booster MBTE and REQUIRING ethanol subtitution instead. Already there are predictions of ethanol additive shortages and gas prices of $3 per gallon due to regional ethanol shortages independent of crude oil costs or availability. Since most ethanol is made from corn, less corn means higher gasoline prices.

Often overlooked in the energy calculations of producing ethanol is that it takes a lot of natural gas to distill it after fermentation and a lot of electricity to run the plant. The energy inputs to ethanol go beyond the diesel fuel , fertilizers and pesticides to plant, harvest and truck the corn to the ethanol plant.

Link- Ethanol Shortage could up gas prices

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')asoline prices will be unusually high and shortages might occur this summer, because the U.S. ethanol industry can't keep up with the demand for fuel-grade alcohol to mix with gasoline, the head of the U.S. Energy Information Administration told a Senate committee Wednesday.

Merely "short-term challenges," countered Bob Dinneen, president of the Renewable Fuels Association, the ethanol trade group. Whatever can't be produced here can be imported, he said.

But imported ethanol, mostly from Brazil, carries a 54-cents-per-gallon tariff that would boost fuel prices even more, unless it were waived.

...skip

Refiners have used MTBE for years and now are discontinuing it because MTBE can taint water supplies and Congress has refused to protect them from MTBE lawsuits. Ethanol is the only ready substitute.

Dinneen pointed out that 33 ethanol plants are under construction and that some of the 97 others already producing are being expanded.

But EIA, in a report last month warning of shortages, said that "new (ethanol) facilities will not start soon enough to meet 2006 demand." That, EIA head Guy Caruso told the committee, "could cause temporary supply dislocations and may cause price volatility."
An expert is someone who has made every mistake possible in their field and learned how to prevent them.
donshan
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 279
Joined: Wed 12 Oct 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Washington State, USA

Two Ears of corn for a Dollar

Unread postby PeakOiler » Sun 29 Apr 2007, 08:35:53

Do I hear $1/ear soon?

Yes, that's the current price of corn-on-the-cob at the local grocery. I remember not too long ago that corn would sell for five ears for a dollar. Perhaps its simply because its "out of season," but I'm sure it has more to do with ethanol production.

I was talking with a co-worker who lives in an apartment, doesn't grow or even cook any of his own food, and eats out at restaurants all the time and he scoffed at me for planting my own corn. He asked, why don't you grow things more valuable, like watermelon and canteloupe? I do. But it is obvious that some people are really out of touch.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
User avatar
PeakOiler
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3664
Joined: Thu 18 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Central Texas

Re: Two Ears for a Dollar

Unread postby Newsseeker » Sun 29 Apr 2007, 09:06:49

It is the ethanol production. It has pushed up prices for everything corn-related.
Newsseeker
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1126
Joined: Thu 12 May 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Two Ears for a Dollar

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Sun 29 Apr 2007, 19:49:41

I'm considering growing at least some greens, basil and stuff like chard, for instance. I have the patio room, evil neighbors (and their piss-on-everything cats) gone, and it would greatly improve my diet to have fresh greens every day.

I'm also considering at least getting into sprouting. Whole Foods should sell the seeds, and that can be done in the window here.
I_Like_Plants
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3839
Joined: Sun 12 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Location: 1st territorial capitol of AZ

Re: Two Ears for a Dollar

Unread postby pup55 » Sun 29 Apr 2007, 22:25:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'c')urrent price of corn-on-the-cob at the local grocery


The obvious question in my mind is....where the hell did this corn come from?

In most of the corn-growing part of the country, "real corn" is not available until June at the earliest, and even that has to be trucked from South Texas or someplace.

So this freak corn must be imported. The reason it's a buck an ear is that someone is burning good jet fuel to fly it in from who knows where so you can have it in April.
User avatar
pup55
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5249
Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Two Ears for a Dollar

Unread postby PeakOiler » Sun 29 Apr 2007, 22:34:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'c')urrent price of corn-on-the-cob at the local grocery


The obvious question in my mind is....where the hell did this corn come from?

In most of the corn-growing part of the country, "real corn" is not available until June at the earliest, and even that has to be trucked from South Texas or someplace.

So this freak corn must be imported. The reason it's a buck an ear is that someone is burning good jet fuel to fly it in from who knows where so you can have it in April.


Good question, pup55, but I see corn-on-the-cob year round at the grocery store. I suspect it is grown in Mexico and shipped by truck. Next time I go to the grocery, I'll try to talk to the produce manager and find out and let you all know.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
User avatar
PeakOiler
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3664
Joined: Thu 18 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Central Texas
Top

Re: Two Ears for a Dollar

Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 02 May 2007, 19:06:14

The fresh corn comes from Florida, although sometimes the grocery gets it from Mexico.

The price today was $0.58/ear.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
User avatar
PeakOiler
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3664
Joined: Thu 18 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Central Texas

Re: Two Ears for a Dollar

Unread postby pup55 » Wed 02 May 2007, 21:31:48

Florida. Go figure.

Maybe an average ear of corn weighs a pound, what with the husk and all.

So in a truckload of corn, 40,000 ears max, minus 10% for packaging (pallets and stuff) so only 36,000.

It's about 1274 miles from Ft. Myers Florida to Waco. The average 18 wheeler gets 6 miles per gallon (on a good day).

.0058 gallons per ear. Diesel was about $2.85 this morning at the truck stop I drive past. 1.6 cents per ear fuel cost.

One of the big nationwide truck fleets (I do not remember which one) is now paying 41 cents per mile to its drivers. 41 cents, 1274 miles, another 1.4 cents per ear to pay the driver. A total of 3 cents per ear so far transportation cost.

An 18 wheeler costs up to $120,000, will run for 10 years, and assuming 16 hours per day at 60 mph, 3.5 million miles during its lifetime, which is only about .16 cents per ear of corn. We are up to 3.16 cents per ear for shipping, total.

Who knows what the farmers' cost is? We know that south florida the soil is really sandy, so you have to fertilize the heck out of everything, irrigate like crazy, (it's been dry down there) hit it with insecticide, and also just the land itself is not cheap, plus pay a migrant worker to pick it.

Then it shows up at the store. The store has to pay some clerk a few dollars per hour to offload the corn, and pull it out onto the sales floor with a pallet jack. Plus the store was no doubt airconditioned, lit, had management, and most importantly, either leased or bought outright by borrowing money to keep a roof over their heads.

There are taxes all the way through the system.Texas' sales tax is, as I recall, fairly exploitative at about 7%. Another 3.6 cents.

So I am ready to say that 58 cents is a miracle.

Truckers Report
User avatar
pup55
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5249
Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00

Corn Burner in the intercity?

Unread postby vision-master » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 11:18:37

What are the pros and cons of using a corn burner in the city?

How do I get the corn? I have no truck and have no fuel (corn) source pinned down?

I can store the stuff in my garage.

Can I run a PVC exhaust out the side of the house?

I've heard they cost about $1,500.
vision-master
 

Re: Corn Burner in the intercity?

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 11:23:11

Under no account would I get a corn burner. Get a good quality woodstove such as an Earthstove. You can burn nearly anything in it if you remember to clean the flue frequently.
Ludi
 

Re: Corn Burner in the intercity?

Unread postby FoolYap » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 11:28:15

Ditto that. IMHO, corn stoves were a temporary aberration. Corn was selling for probably close to its production costs, and that was with cheaper oil and natural gas. It takes a lot of both to deliver a bushel of dry corn to your door.

The economics may work out if you're growing the stuff yourself, but otherwise I'd get a regular woodstove, or a pellet stove. The latter is more convenient ala the corn burners. More expensive than wood, but at least you're not competing with ethanol refineries for the corn. 8)

--Steve
User avatar
FoolYap
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 472
Joined: Sun 04 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: central MA, USA

Re: Corn Burner in the intercity?

Unread postby JBinKC » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 15:08:57

I can't think of any pros other than it the exhaust from burning it would be likely be more tolerable. Corn will cost much more in the future given the expanding demand for it and our dollar devaluation. I think another overlooked problem with corn is you have to rodent proof the storage area. It can be solved with another expense the purchase of rodent proof bins or keeping multiple cats



If you have plenty of space to store and process it I would consider wood first based on your return on investment would be very fast especially if you already own a truck and/or utility trailer and chainsaw. It is still fairly easy to obtain wood for free by scrounging around. I am sure it would be easy to get the lower desirable firewood species from an arborist for free.

There are plenty of other catches with wood though especially in the city. Having enough space to process your wood, storing elm firewood could become a legal problem in the twin cities area, wood smoke and neighbors may be another issue to deal with and the dust it causes in the home.

Unfortunately, insulating your house and paying your gas bill probably is still the most economical thing you can do.
User avatar
JBinKC
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 254
Joined: Sat 14 Aug 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Corn Burner in the intercity?

Unread postby fireplaceguy » Sun 02 Dec 2007, 02:47:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'W')hat are the pros and cons of using a corn burner in the city?
Pros? None. Cons? Storage hassles: Need perfect dry storage. (Wet = mold.) Need impenetrable storage, too. (Otherwise - mice.) Performance issues, too. Corn is a difficult fuel to burn completely. The abundant sugars in corn don't burn well - they tend to turn into sticky carbon clinkers that jam up the works.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'H')ow do I get the corn? I have no truck and have no fuel (corn) source pinned down?
It will turn out to be one of the most expensive ways to heat you could imagine. You'll end up buying it by the bag at a feed store or co-op.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'I') can store the stuff in my garage.
You could, but get a pregnant cat while you're at it...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'C')an I run a PVC exhaust out the side of the house?
No - too much heat in the exhaust, and too many chemicals. Corn stoves should never even be vented with pellet vent (a common practice). Corn stoves and other biomass heaters should be vented with the new generation of venting that is specifically approved for both pellets and the alternatives.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'I')'ve heard they cost about $1,500.You could easily spend twice that. Corn was such a darling fuel that there was an industry-wide rush to bring corn stoves to market. There are some good ones out there, but unless you're a farmer growing corn, or related to one, I'm not convinced this makes sense. Now we are seeing the writing on the wall regarding corn as a fuel, and the industry is working on true multi-fuel biomass heaters. Some of these are very exciting products but I'd wait a bit to see how they work in the field. For now, spend your money on either a good pellet stove or an EPA Phase II wood stove.
Oil - it's what's for dinner.

http://www.invertebratenation.blogspot.com/
User avatar
fireplaceguy
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 305
Joined: Thu 04 May 2006, 03:00:00
Top

The corn boom and damage to the Gulf

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Tue 25 Dec 2007, 17:34:35

From the Associated Press

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ecause of rising demand for ethanol, American farmers are growing more corn than at any time since World War II. And sea life in the Gulf of Mexico is paying the price.

The nation's corn crop is fertilized with millions of pounds of nitrogen-based fertilizer. And when that nitrogen runs off fields in Corn Belt states, it makes its way to the Mississippi River and eventually pours into the Gulf, where it contributes to a growing "dead zone" — a 7,900-square-mile patch so depleted of oxygen that fish, crabs and shrimp suffocate.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')armers realize the connection between their crop and problems downstream, but with the price of corn soaring, it doesn't make sense to grow anything else. And growing corn isn't profitable without nitrogen-based fertilizer.

"I think you have to try to be a good steward of the land," said Jerry Peckumn, who farms corn and soybeans on about 2,000 acres he owns or leases near the Iowa community of Jefferson. "But on the other hand, you can't ignore the price of corn."

Peckumn grows alfalfa and natural grass on the 220 or so acres he owns, but said he cannot afford to experiment on the land he rents.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
User avatar
wisconsin_cur
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4576
Joined: Thu 10 May 2007, 03:00:00
Location: 45 degrees North. 883 feet above sealevel.
Top

2008 corn planting delayed due to weather

Unread postby SD_Scott » Sun 11 May 2008, 02:17:05

So far It's not a disaster but if the rain doesn't let up it could get ugly. Many fields in the area I live haven't even been tilled yet. Some are under water.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ven with 30 percent of this year's expected harvest going toward ethanol, corn must contend with a far more difficult factor this week: weather.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday blamed wet weather for late plantings in parts of key corn growing states. As a result, predictions are that corn production could be down as much as 7 percent from last year's record harvest.

Martin Barbre in Carmi, Ill., about five hours south of Chicago, has planted only about a third of his 2,000 acres of corn. Rain this week put him three weeks behind his usual schedule in the season.

"As wet as the ground is now, we're going to need four to five days just to dry out," Barbre said Friday. "We need 10 straight days of dry weather actually."

Each day after May 15 without any corn in the ground could trim yields by about one bushel of corn per acre at harvest time. With 86 million acres of corn expected to be planted nationwide, the losses could be devastating and further tighten supplies months from now, said Ray Grabanski, president of Progressive Ag Marketing in North Dakota.

"It's a race against the weather," Grabanski said. "The later the crop is planted the more you become susceptible to other weather losses. One is heat during pollination, the other is freezing before harvest."



http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ ... 0662.story

http://www.bnd.com/news/local/story/335007.html
User avatar
SD_Scott
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 478
Joined: Thu 09 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Around somewhere
Top

Re: 2008 corn planting delayed due to weather

Unread postby dooberheim » Sun 11 May 2008, 06:54:21

It just keeps raining here. It is likely that many farmers in MO and IL/IN will not be able to plant. It's also been cold, and things that are planted are not growing as fast as they should.

At least we will have peaches and apples this year.

DK
Carpe Scrotum!
User avatar
dooberheim
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 296
Joined: Sun 07 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Columbia, MO

Re: 2008 corn planting delayed due to weather

Unread postby Bigfuture » Sun 11 May 2008, 07:49:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dooberheim', 'I')t just keeps raining here. It is likely that many farmers in MO and IL/IN will not be able to plant. It's also been cold, and things that are planted are not growing as fast as they should.

At least we will have peaches and apples this year.

DK


Australia is yet to get a break in it's season. About 80% of the country is yet to get rain for the cereal crops. The next three to four weeks will tell the story. Every week from now without rain will send yields lower and put further strain on world food prices. God is indeed speaking...are we listening??
User avatar
Bigfuture
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 7
Joined: Sun 13 Apr 2008, 03:00:00
Top

PreviousNext

Return to Open Topic Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests

cron