[Twilight]

We don't fall off the plateau until next decade. In ten years I have never expected anything different, so I have no reason to be disappointed now. The problem is this JohnDenver troll has a short-term mindset. He wants to see collapse now, like he thought peak oil meant an instant end to the world or something.

[Lanthanide]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'T')he idea that Venezuela will continue selling gasoline at 20 cents a gallon to the locals if it has no export revenue is based on faulty reasoning, IMHO. Oil will go to the most efficient users of the resource because they can extract the most surplus from it.

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lanthanide', '
')So you think the Venezuela people will just shrug and go "oh, ok, send all that oil overseas, and we'll all descend into poverty so America can keep its way of life"? Why do you think oil is so cheap there right now as it is? Political demand.

If whoever is in charge of Venezuela ramps up the local oil prices to high, no matter how logical and sensible it is, they could end up out of the job, to be replaced by someone else who doesn't give a crap about exporting oil and just wants to keep it for the country itself. If this means the price for oil inside the country go up by only 50% (on 20c) instead of 300%, while the price for exported oil goes up 30% (on $3) - at least Venezuela wouldn't be suffering as much as everyone else.

This, I think, is the biggest worry - natural declines, that eventually lead to a political situation that dramatically reduces output over a short period of time. The markets simply have no way to adjust to something like that without causing pain.

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lanthanide', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'T')he idea that Venezuela will continue selling gasoline at 20 cents a gallon to the locals if it has no export revenue is based on faulty reasoning, IMHO. Oil will go to the most efficient users of the resource because they can extract the most surplus from it.

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lanthanide', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'T')he idea that Venezuela will continue selling gasoline at 20 cents a gallon to the locals if it has no export revenue is based on faulty reasoning, IMHO. Oil will go to the most efficient users of the resource because they can extract the most surplus from it.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lanthanide', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'T')he idea that Venezuela will continue selling gasoline at 20 cents a gallon to the locals if it has no export revenue is based on faulty reasoning, IMHO. Oil will go to the most efficient users of the resource because they can extract the most surplus from it.

[efarmer]

Every once in awhile I go to "peak oil debunked" and read the arguments to what is explored here. More so than this I try to read from a variety of sources at the lowest level possible. Like the blogs for people who actually work in an industry or the on line journals that have advertisers who cater to an industry's needs. Unfortunately, many of the "grand wazoo" figures or mainstream media folks seem to seek an immediate end to the world on cue so they can time advertising content and or sell books and videos, or other various myriad types of swag. (And if not there is the ego feeding needs of great personages to contend with as well.)
As is expected of course, sprinkled in, are the real data and gems, almost always as small flecks of gold in large pans of discards. If something is true, it is true, and it should pan out regardless of how you feel about it or who shouts the loudest or has the most esteemed credentials.


So why do I come to a site like this?

People and civilizations make their biggest blunders when they are at full tilt and consensus in a set of behaviors. We collectively have pursued this sort of behavior on a variety of fronts including finance, energy, agriculture, and in fact have convinced ourselves that resources are so vast that they are mathematically limited, but not practically so in terms of impact on the all important subset of humanity: those of us living right now. As an individual I like to see if various realities pass the sniff test and if not see what I might do to posture and position better than can be achieved by running in the herd.

Regardless of it's name, PO follows a format that allows free and open pursuit of the truth, and it has critical mass of a variety of engaged and informed people in the process of this search. PO debunked on the other hand, is interesting but reactive. It works in the direction of proving what is not, and my interest lies in the direction of what is. It will always be easier to be right about what is wrong or useless than to be right about what is attainable.

Since I am a relative neophyte here, is the JD from the PO debunked site the same as our beloved PO crooner, John Denver?

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', 'S')ince I am a relative neophyte here, is the JD from the PO debunked site the same as our beloved PO crooner,
John Denver?

[TheDude]

Chavez is charitable with his oil, too: Citizens Energy accepts $25m of oil from Venezuela. They did the same in 2005 - 06 as well? Earlier?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')I believe this is the biggest social program any oil company ever has done in this country," Citgo chief executive Alejandro Granado said during the ceremony after riding in from Boston Harbor on the tanker ship delivering some of the oil. "Many people say we are doing politics, but life is politics. We are helping people. We are going to make sure that less people go to bed cold this winter."

[Revi]

I just checked out Peak Oil Debunked, and I have to say that I agreed with practically everything he had to say. I thought that his points about changing your lifestyle were really great. Here's a great post of his:

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/200 ... -easy.html

[efarmer]

In response to The Dude.

Frank Zappa quote:
Who is the Grand Wazoo?
"Anybody in any one of those lodge organizations with a stupid hat on," said Frank, adding "actually, the guy with the biggest, dumbest hat is the Grand Wazoo."
<end quote>

I suppose this is where I am inspired to use the term, what I mean by it is the human tendency to personally get so wrapped up in an issue that your position on the issue and your personage become bonded and you have to defend them both as one, even if you are partially or totally wrong as the issue progresses. The issue propels you to become a "Grand Wazoo" and you in turn become frozen in your declared position and unable to evolve or adjust dynamically.

Separate from the previous whole line of thought, the mainstream media by design can only shine it's light on an issue for a brief period. During this brief period, the issue needs to do something dramatic or evoke powerful emotion. No knock on the mainstream media, but it is not good at slow trend events like resource limit issues. Now if you stand up a Grand Wazoo who will tell them we all die at 10AM next Tuesday from said issue, now there's a story!


Thanks for confirmation on identity, the writing style seemed to match very closely.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', 'I')n response to The Dude.

Frank Zappa quote:
Who is the Grand Wazoo?
"Anybody in any one of those lodge organizations with a stupid hat on," said Frank, adding "actually, the guy with the biggest, dumbest hat is the Grand Wazoo."
<end quote>

I suppose this is where I am inspired to use the term, what I mean by it is the human tendency to personally get so wrapped up in an issue that your position on the issue and your personage become bonded and you have to defend them both as one, even if you are partially or totally wrong as the issue progresses. The issue propels you to become a "Grand Wazoo" and you in turn become frozen in your declared position and unable to evolve or adjust dynamically.

Separate from the previous whole line of thought, the mainstream media by design can only shine it's light on an issue for a brief period. During this brief period, the issue needs to do something dramatic or evoke powerful emotion. No knock on the mainstream media, but it is not good at slow trend events like resource limit issues. Now if you stand up a Grand Wazoo who will tell them we all die at 10AM next Tuesday from said issue, now there's a story!


Thanks for confirmation on identity, the writing style seemed to match very closely.

[TheDude]

efarmer's posts are pretty balanced if you ask me. JD on the other hand...

From the blog entry Revi linked to:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')i]You're right JD, we don't need oil. Just like we don't need coffee, television, or even clothing.

Actually, we do need coffee, television, clothing etc. It's just the oil we don't need.

[threadbear]

I like EFarmer's posts too. I probably sounded antagonistic, but wasn't meaning to. I was asking myself that question this morning. Where am I rigid, and how many ideas do I have, personally, that are products of ego attachment--and then concluded it's easy to see in others, but difficult to see in yourself. I was asking out of curiosity, not confrontation.

[KillTheHumans]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', 'B')ut I like your idea, we ought to stop worrying about it soon if only because it sure doesn't seem to be bothering anyone much.

[Revi]

[

More from JD's blog:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut oil's at $100, what should we do?
Wise up, and stop using. Oil prices are like a big truck coming down the street. Get out of the way. There's a whole range of solutions. Carpool. Ride the bus. Move closer to your job. Buy a scooter. Buy an electric bicycle. Telecommute. Walk. Ride your bike. Get a space heater. Buy a faggy-assed little electric car, like the Takeoka Milieu.

But, but, but...
Yah, I know. This is where all the excuses start, and folks resort to feeble stuff like: "Car pooling won't work in America" or "There aren't enough scooters" or "Fat people can't ride bikes" or "People would laugh at me if I did that" or "I can't walk because there's no sidewalk" etc. etc. It's quite sad, really, how the doomer position collapses into this kind of piffle at its foundations.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'Q')uit whining, and do something about peak oil.

[efarmer]

Fair enough Threadbear, I know this answer because I are one.

I am often rigid, assumption prone as can be, in error frequently that I become aware of and who knows how often that I don't. I am weak in way too many areas to list, and my response to this weakness is to do my best to learn and to cover my ass on a regular basis as well by being cautious. I often catch myself being the Grand Wazoo character with my adult offspring like I did when they were young children because I know it so well and it is comfortable even though it does not fit or work.

I have learned more from collaboration and study in my life than I have from polarizing up and playing "king of the hill" or "debate gunslinger". The structure of this site has let me learn a great deal, and I greatly enjoy the banter and personalities here. I feel comfortable to state my personal opinions and to ponder the results and feedback, knowing full well that I am just another ant in the farm.

I think it speaks highly of this site that JD is allowed to freely post and participate, even if he does taunt and chafe.

[TheDude]

Addressing the demand side of things will be inevitable. People will sleep at work, if they can't pull off carpooling. Problem is setting up systems like this on the fly, in a crisis situation. My primary fear is the mess that will result from lack of planning and leadership, not to mention the shock of this psychologically, and the fallout from all the service industry jobs that are dependent on cars and trucks.

JD references Alan Drake's electrification of transport plans, which are impeccably thought out - he's a very sharp guy. Make sure you read his piece USA 2034: A Look Back at the 25th Anniversary Year. Even an optimist like Alan doesn't think this will be some kind of cakewalk:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s we all know, the first decade post-Peak Oil was quite difficult. History calls it the “Bad Tens” for good reason. Suicides peaked at 8 times pre-Peak levels for a decade post-Peak and are now down to just twice pre-Peak levels. Demographics shifted significantly, as they did when the Soviet Union collapsed. Life expectancy declined almost a decade in the USA, but it was more gender balanced that in Russia.

Overall mortality increased dramatically in the Bad Tens, just as it did a few years earlier in post-Katrina New Orleans. The long term effects of obesity and diabetes combined with chaotic healthcare for most citizens and simple despair and disorientation resulted in a 50% increase in the death rate for those ten years.