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Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Mon 17 Dec 2007, 22:17:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
Peak Oil will be a massive social, economic, and political disruption but it won't be the end of civilization.



Peak Oil MAY be a massive social, economic, and political disruption.....

So far its been a bust.

Nice graphs though Tyler, the incremental mitigation inherent in how PO consequences get negated is easy to miss unless one is looking for it.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Mon 17 Dec 2007, 22:29:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'C')heap commie labor. :razz:
Oh shut up you twit.


Obvious violation of COC:



Your answer implies a fair and honest application of the rules is the norm.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 17 Dec 2007, 22:36:21

Probably not, but it's worth a shot. I've PM'd a couple mods but I don't expect anything to come of it given the biased nature of these forums. :-D

[I deleted the flame-->Tyler_JC]

Edit - I stand corrected. :)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Mon 17 Dec 2007, 23:37:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'T')his is not my area of expertise but I do believe that steel is produced using at least some oil as part of the feed stock for the blast furnace. (I belive that you can also use nat. gas or coal and I do not know how the furnaces in China work, I would guess there is a great variety)

There is a lot of Chinese steel going to Europe and being used world-wide by european companies.


Thanks for trying w_c, but this is the breakdown on fuel inputs to the steel industry in the U.S.:
Image
Not a whole lot of oil being consumed there. The data comes from here:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mecs/iab98/steel/fuel.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'A')lso textiles. As I recall there was a big argument about Chinese textiles sitting in European ports while there was an argument about quotas. A lot of clothing is now made from synthetics and at least the news emphasized the number of women's underwear and brazers that were tied up because of the argument.


I'm kind of confused. Where exactly in the lingerie manufacturing process is the oil actually burnt?

You see Heineken says: "China, India, etc., are burning the oil to produce goods that Europe would otherwise burn to produce them on its own." So were the Europeans burning oil at their bra factories too? Where did they burn the oil? Out back?


Nice try JD.

There is this new thing on the market, maybe you have heard of it. It is called polyester

Of course we make a lot of other synthetic fibers also but as I eluded to I'm not an expert on the subject. Polyester, however, is also used for a coating for things like guitars and pianoes and the like. I'm pretty sure that all plastics are derived from oil. So my little plastic computer (made in taiwan but you get the idea) required oil for its production in China. It doesn't show up in American imports because I bought the finished product made from oil sent to Asia.

I assume people in Europe also use plastic and, I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that they are not self-sufficient in plastic production. they too buy computers, and other manufactuered goods made some where else, often times made with plastic (oil).

I think that it would be fair to the original individual who posted the statement about "burning oil" did not mean to be taken literally in the sense that oil is burned to make manufactured goods (though he probably is right in that sense I'm only saying a little gentlemanly generosity would also allow it to be a figure of speech, for using oil in the production of goods (ie the creation of plastics using oil which is made into manufactured goods sold to Europe).
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Unread postby Heineken » Tue 18 Dec 2007, 00:35:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SchroedingersCat', 'L')et's put this in a proper perspective. Name one thing the east produces for the west to buy that does not consume or burn oil in the course of its production and delivery.


They all burn oil in the course of delivery. Some consume oil in the process of production (i.e. plastics). Very very few burn oil in their production, as Heineken originally claimed:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'T')hus, China, India, etc., are burning the oil to produce goods that Europe would otherwise burn to produce them on its own.


Here's energy consumed as fuel in U.S. manufacturing from the DOE:
Image
Source

As you can see, virtually no oil is burned by the U.S. manufacturing sector.


I meant "production" in the broadest possible sense, and you construed it in its narrowest sense.

You similarly strangled the meaning of "burn." By "burn oil" I meant use it in any way that uses it up. This should have been obvious from the context. (As noted by WisconsinCur.)

Your numbers simply don't reflect the full spectrum of energy inputs. For example, how much oil is used in mining, refining, and transporting the metals used in manufacturing a truck? In mining, refining, and transporting the metals used in manufacturing the machines that do the mining, refining, and transporting? In constructing and maintaining and operating the coal-fired power plants that supply electricity used in manufacturing? In transporting the factory workers to and from their homes? In producing the food the factory workers consume? Etc.

It's like you're wearing blinkers, JD. You see only straight ahead, and not the full circle of connections.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 18 Dec 2007, 01:09:09

Actually the link for the table above (Source) from the EIA contains excellent data on US consumption of fuels for feedstocks, manufacturing, what have you.

Image

Dunno about Chindia but I'm sure the IEA has similar data if you're interested.

Stuart had more to say regarding depletion in his recent article Is the Decline of Base Production Accelerating? Which of course is a repost to JD's recent comeback.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his last decline rate is the one society really cares about. In my view it's the central thing that controls how easily society can adapt to the peaking of global oil supply, and it is the one that Hubbert linearization says should worsen only very slowly.

However, the base production growth/decline rate is also of considerable interest, because it's directly related to the net growth/decline rate via the new capacity. So the worse the base production fares, the more new capacity is required to make up the difference. The petrophysical decline rate would be of great interest too, but, as far as I know, we have no public data with which to assess it. However, we can infer the base decline rate because we have public estimates of new capacity and also of production changes.


No public data indeed. Unless we elect a President who'll twist OPEC's arm. And assuming they really know what's in the ground anyway - which Deffeyes says is likely not the case in Iraq/Iran, at least. He makes it sound if they have a lot of exploring to do, actually.

All depends on where you want to place your bet. Wish someone would aggregate all of these forecasts, on a scale from Yergin to Savinar. I'm for self sufficiency and powering down at any rate - it's how I want to live.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Unread postby SchroedingersCat » Tue 18 Dec 2007, 02:47:36

Couldn't find one single source to show oil-fired generation for electricity, but a sweep comes up with about 11% worldwide. And of course, all that coal and nat gas doesn't get to the power plants by itself. Extraction and transport of those fuels takes oil. Even JD's charts show that in the US oil-fired is 1/2 to 1/3 that of coal-fired. Hmm...

Interestingly, this EIA projection shows oil-fired generation growing at almost the same rate as nuclear out to 2030: International Energy Outllook. .9 percent or oil vs 1.3 percent for nuclear.

Sorry JD, your dog doesn't hunt.

Worldwide oil (C+C) production is in decline. All liquids is on a plateau and headed towards decline. Short of an authoritarian world-wide government instituting major reforms and transition to renewables will prevent major economic upheaval in the next several years.

If you have a real, workable solution, post it. If it passes the sniff test you can be the saviour of mankind. Else, go back to your alternate universe where exponential growth can occur in a world with limited resources.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 18 Dec 2007, 10:57:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SchroedingersCat', '
')Worldwide oil (C+C) production is in decline.


Uh, yah, I know. That's why I started this thread. To laugh about what a non-event peak oil was. <snort>

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ll liquids is on a plateau and headed towards decline.

Uh huh. I'm listening.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')hort of an authoritarian world-wide government instituting major reforms and transition to renewables will prevent major economic upheaval in the next several years.

Several years? That's a little vague. Care to put some real numbers on that, cowboy?
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Unread postby Heineken » Tue 18 Dec 2007, 11:13:46

Denver, I give you five stars for your hostile, irritating, browbeating tone. It goes well with that ugly avatar.

Reminds me strongly of Lorenzo.

You aren't really engaging our refutations. Also like Lorenzo.

When I see that happening, I know I'm on the winning side.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Unread postby jbeckton » Tue 18 Dec 2007, 11:49:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'D')enver, I give you five stars for your hostile, irritating, browbeating tone. It goes well with that ugly avatar.

Reminds me strongly of Lorenzo.

You aren't really engaging our refutations. Also like Lorenzo.

When I see that happening, I know I'm on the winning side.


Thats how I know when I have defeated Roccman.

;)
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Unread postby gnm » Tue 18 Dec 2007, 13:30:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SchroedingersCat', '
')Worldwide oil (C+C) production is in decline.


Uh, yah, I know. That's why I started this thread. To laugh about what a non-event peak oil was. <snort>

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ll liquids is on a plateau and headed towards decline.

Uh huh. I'm listening.



Glad to hear that you are wealthy enough to scoff JD.....

On the local radio news I am hearing about the massive increases in WORKING poor families using food pantries because they can't make ends meet due to EXPENSIVE FUEL and rising food prices (which are also due to expensive fuel IMHO).

Things are exactly as expected 2 years or so out from peak. Say we remove 15% of your food each year? You might also be able to yuck it up for a couple years but its going to start to get real painful after about 4 years...

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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 18 Dec 2007, 14:30:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'Y')ou aren't really engaging our refutations
Yeah, he still hasn't addressed the issue of scale or that he assumes that all of his solutions rely on a smooth market led transition to the alternatives (even if they exist on the scale required), with no detrimental side-effects. It may be that alternatives, or some conservation, can minimize the effects for a while, but he needs to continue keeping his fingers crossed that some miracle can keep that going.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Unread postby jbeckton » Tue 18 Dec 2007, 16:17:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'R')occman is always hostile, irritating, browbeating and unrepentant.


Yes, much like a bratty child who doesn't get his way.

What's your point?

:)
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 18 Dec 2007, 20:40:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'Y')ou aren't really engaging our refutations
Yeah, he still hasn't addressed the issue of scale

Tony, can you give me a few concise sentences describing what the issue of scale is? What exactly is the problem that we cannot solve? The precise thing we cannot do?
Or, alternatively, can you describe what would constitute a solution to the scale issue, in your book?

I have a strong suspicion that:
a) You can't actually describe the problem in any coherent way
b) There is no conceivable response that would change your mind (i.e. your view is more akin to religion than science)
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 18 Dec 2007, 20:51:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'Y')ou aren't really engaging our refutations. Also like Lorenzo.

When I see that happening, I know I'm on the winning side.


If you're on the winning side, then what are you right about? Coming on 3 years ago, peak oil came, and went, and it hasn't even caused a recession. The decline in crude oil production hasn't even stopped growth, let alone caused relocalization, stock market collapse, endless depression, world war 3, mass death, people drinking dog piss out of hubcaps and all the other calamities you people have been barking about for the last 3 years.

*I* was right, and that's why I'm gloating about it here.

What are you right about, Heineken?
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Unread postby Bas » Tue 18 Dec 2007, 21:12:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'Y')ou aren't really engaging our refutations
Yeah, he still hasn't addressed the issue of scale

Tony, can you give me a few concise sentences describing what the issue of scale is? What exactly is the problem that we cannot solve? The precise thing we cannot do?
Or, alternatively, can you describe what would constitute a solution to the scale issue, in your book?

I have a strong suspicion that:
a) You can't actually describe the problem in any coherent way
b) There is no conceivable response that would change your mind (i.e. your view is more akin to religion than science)


peakoil might not have ocurred yet. If it has, which could be, production hasn't fallen significantly yet but when that starts to happen, that's when the problems start, especially when after a few years also natural gas supplies start fall. We don't have good liquid fuel alternatives (I don't have to educate about biofuels, do I?) and I'm worried about the very important fertilizer made from gas.

Ofcourse a lot will depend on the steepness of the decline, but that doesn't look promising thinking about the large scale application of horizontal drilling employed these days; IOW the steepness of the decline will probably be bigger than in the classic hubbert curve because the "superstraw technology" making it possible to have higher well flow rates for longer but which have proven to result in sudden in very steep drops once pressure in fields cannot be maintained anymore by artificial means. This technology in fact has skewed the hubbert curve to the right into the future but with a much sharper dropoff than in the classic curve. In fact without the modern technology we would probably be on a "relative" gentle downward slope in oil production already.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 18 Dec 2007, 21:33:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'Y')ou aren't really engaging our refutations
Yeah, he still hasn't addressed the issue of scale

Tony, can you give me a few concise sentences describing what the issue of scale is? What exactly is the problem that we cannot solve? The precise thing we cannot do?
Or, alternatively, can you describe what would constitute a solution to the scale issue, in your book?

I have a strong suspicion that:
a) You can't actually describe the problem in any coherent way
b) There is no conceivable response that would change your mind (i.e. your view is more akin to religion than science)
How does the energy we get from oil get replaced with alternatives and how do we increase that available energy to power economic growth? For this, you need to consider all of the resources needed to make the alternatives available. We should also consider any side-effects (such as environmental degradation, or reduction, or lack of growth, in crops for food) but let's leave that for another time. However, as natural gas and coal could also start to decline within a decade or few, they will also become a problem. But the nearly 40% of primary energy we get from oil will be a good starting point. Note that fast decline is not needed for the substitution to be a problem, though it would obviously exacerbate it. Ultimately, we need to substitute for all of that energy, in all of its uses, with the total amount increasing every year. Efficiencies are an acceptable substitute though the economic effects of that would need to be considered.

Heck, I've said as much in numerous posts, so I don't know how you can claim not to understand. This has nothing to do with religion. I'd love to know that there is nothing to worry about for the next, say 90 years but, so far, the so-called optimists have offered nothing but wishful thinking (that's not to say some alternatives aren't possible but it's not clear that they are possible in the scale required, in the timelines required and without detrimental side-effects).
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Unread postby killJOY » Tue 18 Dec 2007, 21:36:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '*')I* was right, and that's why I'm gloating about it here.


JD, you win. You rock!
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