[efarmer]

In reading JD's posts and work as a debunker, I have come to appreciate the huge amount of research and analysis that is represented by the work as a body. To debunk or analyze a subject or a system you have to understand how it currently functions, how it is supposed to or believed to function, and in the process
it is my experience that you also gain insight into how it might function differently or better, and the factors poised to aid or detract from that function as well as the probable timing and scope of such factors.

Bottom line, I am convinced that JD must have come to a set of conclusions and scenarios with regard to resource limits and climate changes of his very own.

So how about it JD, how about stepping away from the debunk flush handle for a moment and giving us a little taste of what must be showing up in your personal conclusions bin from time to time?

[TonyPrep]

From what I've read of JD's site, the posts are quite superficial. Not in the sense that he hasn't done most of his homework on the "solutions" he proposes, but that he appears to ignore scale. He also assumes that there are enough resources for the solutions he proposes and that those solutions will be adopted in a timely manner, with optimum market efficiency and without side-effects. He doesn't seem to understand how ingrained oil is in every aspect of life (regardless of the proportions of oil) and how ingrained most people's way of life is.

He also doesn't understand that it will only take one limit to be breached, if that limit is vital for our way of life, for our way of life to become untenable.

[xrotaryguy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbrovont', 'O')il reserves are being drawn down

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'F')rom what I've read of JD's site, the posts are quite superficial. Not in the sense that he hasn't done most of his homework on the "solutions" he proposes, but that he appears to ignore scale.

[mel1962]

I see no Big Fizzle, in fact I see a gather global storm, the biggest impact of peak oil will be on the economy. I myself refuse to ride a scooter and most people like myself will continue to drive cars, maybe they will be run on electricity. Peak Oil is here, how it plays out and how it effects us will depend on future events.

This crisis is not a big fizzle, but rather a snowball rolling down the hill!

[efarmer]

For many countries, especially Japan, and of course the US at this point, a serious supply disruption means austere consequences with rapid onset, and this has been true for decades. The US ignored this completely and chose to build a suburban sprawl that is only automobile accessible. I expect premium oil to produce low value suburban sprawl real estate immediately in the US. I am still amazed that we as a nation were rudderless and defaulted into the situation. We are just past the peak of oil perhaps, but seem to be very far past the peak of realistic behavior as a nation.

JohnDenver, now you can say that you danced in the PO Holiday Special, Nutcracker Suite.

[Heineken]

pstarr, unless I'm mistaken, the US was importing oil well before US production peaked. This factor, along with the others you listed, helped buffer the depletion rate here. It gave the US the luxury of not having to produce all it could, all the time.

So you're absolutely right, the US experience is a historical aberration. As today's major producers hit their peak and go into decline, they won't be able to "merge" their exports with imports from elsewhere. They'll have to lateral-drill and water-inject and CO2-inject like crazy . . . and then steer the remaining, low-EROEI proceeds toward domestic use.

The US faces certain oil starvation. God help us . . . and everyone else.

[TheDude]

From a recent blog entry:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JD', 'W')henever liquids peak (soon or decades away), the math shows that the overall decline rate will be quite slow -- less than 2% for the first 20 years.
Hubbert Theory says Peak is Slow Squeeze
Read that carefully. It's one of the most important things ever written on peak oil.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I')n my view, the doomer worries about "scale" assume that the post-peak decline in oil/liquids production will be quick.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 't')he scale of energy we need to substitute for the energy dense sources of oil, then gas, then coal is almost mind boggling [...] Even if the decline is slow (perhaps an undulating downslope with occasional, but lower, upturns), it is this scale of energy substitution that you never sem to address.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'F')rom a recent blog entry:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JD', 'W')henever liquids peak (soon or decades away), the math shows that the overall decline rate will be quite slow -- less than 2% for the first 20 years.
Hubbert Theory says Peak is Slow Squeeze
Read that carefully. It's one of the most important things ever written on peak oil.

[Tyler_JC]

Just a few statistics to remember.

32% of new US energy production capacity came from renewable sources in 2006, excluding nukes and hydro.

19% of new US electricity production in 2006 was wind power.

As for Europe, oil consumption is down dramatically since its 1970s peak, despite population and economic growth.



Italy, France, and Germany use half the energy that America does per capita despite having essentially the same standard of living and arguably a higher quality of life.

And EU policy is moving in the right direction. Given enough discomfort, Americans will follow suit.

This stuff isn't impossible and it is happening right now. Everything looks like doom when you stare at a 3% demand growth curve running off into infinity but that's not how the world works.

Demand growth will slow and renewable energy supplies will continue marching upward as consumer swap from liquid to electric transport.

Peak Oil will be a massive social, economic, and political disruption but it won't be the end of civilization.

The green bar is the current % of energy that comes from a renewable source, the white bar represents the 2010 objective.

[efarmer]

I often reach the place where I run out of mental capacity and patience, and perspective, and therefore hope, to see any solutions, to the big bag of dicks (a Missouri centric term) that faces us in the onset of resource limits and climate changes coupled with human unconsciousness. And then I get great hope in the fact that I ain't the sharpest tool in the shed, and that no matter what else fails, I will put my faith in the scientific principles,
stop sitting on the pitty pot until I have three or more red rings on my fanny coupled with tingling legs, and open myself up to the fact that collectively we are smarter and more resilent than we are as individuals. Kudos to you all for great debate, and in my opinion, this thread is somewhat like a light bulb arguing with itself about which part is the filament, and which part is unnecesary and could be discarded.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'J')ust a few statistics to remember.

32% of new US energy production capacity came from renewable sources in 2006, excluding nukes and hydro.

19% of new US electricity production in 2006 was wind power.

As for Europe, oil consumption is down dramatically since its 1970s peak, despite population and economic growth.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'T')hus, China, India, etc., are burning the oil to produce goods that Europe would otherwise burn to produce them on its own.

[SchroedingersCat]

Well let's see: about 1/2 of a barrel of oil is gasoline. The rest is diesel, kerosene, LPG, bunker oil, asphalt, etc. Basically all things that are necessary to producing stuff. Especially in producer nations. You need an amazing infrastructure to produce and deliver all the products that modern western society has become dependent on.

In the past decade the price of oil has gone up four fold. That means that the price of shipping things has gone up at least as much. Plus the various inputs which have been made more expensive.

Oil is an input to almost every aspect of modern society. Perhaps more modern countries don't rely upon oil for the direct production of electricity, but electricity is only one input to the industrial chain.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'J')ust a few statistics to remember.

32% of new US energy production capacity came from renewable sources in 2006, excluding nukes and hydro.

19% of new US electricity production in 2006 was wind power.

[Tyler_JC]

This is a chart of US energy demand over the next 50 years (assuming no increases in efficiency or conversation and a continuation of modern consumption growth patterns).

The rapidly accelerating line is the amount of power produced by renewable energy.

The growth rate starts off at the current 21.6% and decelerates at a rate of .5% a year until it levels off at 4% annual growth in order to adjust for the law of diminishing returns.

The gap is the need for non-renewable (nuclear, coal, or NG) energy. Mind you, we only need to increase the nonrenewable production for another decade before increased supplies of renewables exceed new demand. After 2016, we start cutting non-renewables out of the energy diet.

By about ~2046, just in time to hit the zero carbon emissions by 2050 deadline, renewable supply exceeds total demand.