[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'O')fcourse a lot will depend on the steepness of the decline, but that doesn't look promising thinking about the large scale application of horizontal drilling employed these days; IOW the steepness of the decline will probably be bigger than in the classic hubbert curve because the "superstraw technology" making it possible to have higher well flow rates for longer but which have proven to result in sudden in very steep drops once pressure in fields cannot be maintained anymore by artificial means. This technology in fact has skewed the hubbert curve to the right into the future but with a much sharper dropoff than in the classic curve. In fact without the modern technology we would probably be on a "relative" gentle downward slope in oil production already.

[Bas]

England, Norway, Mexico, Oman

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'Y')ou aren't really engaging our refutations

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'E')ngland, Norway, Mexico, Oman

[Bas]

the superstraws have only been in wide use for the last decade, but indeed look at your own curve for norway and how steep it went up and how steep it's now expected to decline, much steeper slopes than other fields/countries in the past, it's obvious, a hubbert curve on steroids... Thanks for digging up that curve.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'T')ony, you seem to be looking for a massive USSR-style planning document which describes all investment and movement of goods, services and people throughout the global economy for the next 90 years or so. You'll have to forgive me if I don't bother whipping that up for the sake of your peace-of-mind.

[Bas]

I found this Oman graph and it seems to me that there is definately a skewed Hubbert's curve developing here.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'Y')ou aren't really engaging our refutations. Also like Lorenzo.

When I see that happening, I know I'm on the winning side.

[SchroedingersCat]

There are fuel shortages in much of the developing world. China is having a huge problem with diesel shortages right now. There are rolling blackouts in much of the developing world. (Check out the Olduvai Gorge thread for details.) World grain stores are at their lowest in over 50 years. Grain prices are higher than ever. The global economy is on the brink of a major meltdown with the possibility of a global recession.

This is only because oil production has plateaued, overall decline has not yet set in.
JD, you seem to think that the doomers here have somehow failed. Just wait a few years and see how many of the doomer predictions come true.

I am always surprised and dismayed when I see predictions and projections from a couple years past not only being met but being surpassed.

I don't think anyone here has put a date on the terrible things that will come to pass. This site provides a very typical risk analysis process. When this happens, then we can assume that that will happen. If you're smart you'll collect the lists of this-es and thats so you can be ready for the chaos to come.

[TheDude]

You might factor this in as well:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Robert Rapier', 'E')IA data show a small decline in world net oil exports from 2005 to 2006, led by a 3.3% per year decline rate in net exports from the top three net oil exporters--Saudi Arabia, Russia and Norway. Furthermore, recent data suggest that the net export decline is continuing, and probably accelerating.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SchroedingersCat', 'T')here are fuel shortages in much of the developing world. China is having a huge problem with diesel shortages right now. There are rolling blackouts in much of the developing world. (Check out the Olduvai Gorge thread for details.) World grain stores are at their lowest in over 50 years. Grain prices are higher than ever. The global economy is on the brink of a major meltdown with the possibility of a global recession.

This is only because oil production has plateaued, overall decline has not yet set in.
JD, you seem to think that the doomers here have somehow failed. Just wait a few years and see how many of the doomer predictions come true.

I am always surprised and dismayed when I see predictions and projections from a couple years past not only being met but being surpassed.

I don't think anyone here has put a date on the terrible things that will come to pass. This site provides a very typical risk analysis process. When this happens, then we can assume that that will happen. If you're smart you'll collect the lists of this-es and thats so you can be ready for the chaos to come.

[vfr]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'A')t the moment, EIA stats indicate that peak oil is not a future event, and in fact occurred roughly 2.5 years ago in May 2005. The peak value was 74.3mbd, and the most recent value (for Aug. 2007) was 72.5mbd -- down by 1.8mbd or 2.5% from the peak:

Considering that this message board is called peakoil.com, and is inhabited by peakoilers, and we've all been told that peak oil will be TEOTWAWKI , it seems a little odd that nobody is talking about the actual event of "global peak oil".

Thus, this thread. Let's talk about how peak oil came and went, and was basically a non-event which hasn't even caused a recession.

[JustinFrankl]

I knew there was a reason why I hadn't posted here in a while, and why I let the "two-week ban" for publicly criticizing site policies on my other ID actually be the permanent ban it was intended it to be.

People like JD ruin this place, where as the comment my other ID was banned for would have actually helped.

Maybe I'll post again in 2009 to again contribute to the circle-jerk among those of us still standing.

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustinFrankl', '
')Maybe I'll post again in 2009 to again contribute to the circle-jerk among those of us still standing.

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'Y')es, I'm struck by the underlying ridiculous irony of this thread: JD's assertion that a "Big Fizzle" is in progress when the evidence to the contrary is so breathtaking, even though events are just barely starting to move relative to where they're headed.

[Zardoz]

Troll, indeed. He knows perfectly well that the refineries are still well-supplied with crude, and that nothing bad will really start until they can't get enough feedstock, yet he's claiming he was "right" about something.

The only mystery here is why we waste so much time responding to his silly posts. This thread is a tribute to his troll skills, I suppose.

That's all it is, though. Nothing more.

[FreddyH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', ' ') Thus, this thread. Let's talk about how peak oil came and went, and was basically a non-event which hasn't even caused a recession.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', 'H')ey JD, good to see that u are back ... and hammering home those precious reality checks.

[FreddyH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')Freddy take a look up there, just north of you. One of the world's last great oil regions, the North Slope is in 8% annual decline. It's little itty bitty neighbor Anwar might have 9 months more reserves. Little or nothing else of this magnitude has been discovered since. And you are feeling happy about this? You need to find some shelter or warmth you seem addled?