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Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby Dezakin » Wed 12 Dec 2007, 05:21:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'T')here are many scenarios from hard landing to soft landing. Long term it will be TEOTWAWKI that time frame may be 10 years it could be 20.

We are still waiting for your techno fixes, space elevators and unlimited nano solar, cold fusion <insert favorite energy delusion>

My favorite has been around for over 50 years... fission.

It works, its scalable to the terawatt range, and it'll last millions of years. And its been proven and demonstrated on the range of hundreds of gigawatts.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby SolarDave » Wed 12 Dec 2007, 05:42:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'J')...snip...

Electric vehicles are in their infancy and there certainly won't be enough to satisfy a worldwide demand of 800 million vehicles, and growing, for a very long time yet.

...snip...


I hate doing math with huge numbers, but here goes:

800,000,000 cars. (wow)
Just for grins, each has a 20 gallon gas tank.

One "fill-up" is:
16,000,000,000 gallons of gas (sixteen-billion/thousand-million). He-he. Man the pumps! Whose payin'??

Now suppose - just suppose, we have one Trillion Gallons Of Gas 1TGOG left (And I mean a million times a million. Go ahead and divide reserves, barrels, light, heavy, creaming curves, production, destruction, anything you want to make a figure that agrees with me ;-)

And how far can we drive?

Well, we can fill the tank about 62 times and the party is over.

At 25 MPG, that's 31,250 more miles. Then it's back to walking. For all 800,000,000 car owners. And their families.

Did I get the math right?

If we had three trillion gallons of gas, we just might get to the point of wearing out all those cars.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby TonyPrep » Wed 12 Dec 2007, 06:27:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'T')he biggest obsticle to tar sands production is capital and labor being locked away in other, more productive ventures. If conventional oil goes into terminal decline overnight, where do you think the capital and labor will flow?

I'm betting capital and labor wont go into terminal decline nearly as soon as the continual predictions here.
Do you think it will take the same amounts of capital and labour to produce as much net energy from tar sands as from conventional crude?

Of course not. But when oil prices started to rise after the early 90's and oil companies were left hanging with the asian financial crisis, they dont want to be left hanging ever again when the price falls. And second, there is more demand for capital than oil production. You can put your money in conventional crude with high profit margins and potentially low growth rates, unconventional crude with low profit margins and potentially high growth rates, or plough it into software or consumer goods or some other thing that as an investor you might think is more likely to make you money.

If conventional crude drys up, eventually unconvential oil supply (tar sands, coal liquefaction, orinco extra heavy, whatever) will suck up all the investment capital from conventional crude and then some. This sucks up some of the potential productive capacity of other parts of the economy and is slightly inflationary in itself...
You're right, of course. I was trying to be explicit about tar sands not being able to fill in for declines in conventional. I think you agree, though we perhaps disagree about the likely peak of production from Canadian tar sands.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby JohnDenver » Wed 12 Dec 2007, 09:59:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I')f you read some of the earlier work posted on this forum, Peak Oil and its related consequences were often cited as future events that would cause global collapse. Peak Oil was seen as the point at which the world would stop growing and start falling apart.

Now the discussion has shifted away from Peak Oil and into conspiracies, geopolitics, peak phosphorus, and the rest.


Bingo. (Thanks Tyler.)
Let's talk about Peak Oil. It's a past event that happened in May 2005.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby inculcated » Wed 12 Dec 2007, 10:22:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')Let's talk about Peak Oil.


Fine, pedant. Now if you care to open your eyes a tad, you might have the ability to understand that PO is a symptom. The disease, or cause, lies in how we have come to expect an ordering of society. The ability of the host system to maintain that form is coming to a close. The overt indications will not march lockstep with the acme of crude production. There will be lag. However, if you can manage to put down the blinders and manage to think outside of your need for the dream to be reality, the indications that industrial structures are not sustainable become readily apparent.

The proof of course will come in the year that electricity is no longer taken for granted by the likes of JD and those clinging tenaciously to the butt cheeks of whatever technology sure to save us.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby Revi » Wed 12 Dec 2007, 10:41:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SolarDave', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'J')...snip...

Electric vehicles are in their infancy and there certainly won't be enough to satisfy a worldwide demand of 800 million vehicles, and growing, for a very long time yet.

...snip...


I hate doing math with huge numbers, but here goes:

800,000,000 cars. (wow)
Just for grins, each has a 20 gallon gas tank.

One "fill-up" is:
16,000,000,000 gallons of gas (sixteen-billion/thousand-million). He-he. Man the pumps! Whose payin'??

Now suppose - just suppose, we have one Trillion Gallons Of Gas 1TGOG left (And I mean a million times a million. Go ahead and divide reserves, barrels, light, heavy, creaming curves, production, destruction, anything you want to make a figure that agrees with me ;-)

And how far can we drive?

Well, we can fill the tank about 62 times and the party is over.

At 25 MPG, that's 31,250 more miles. Then it's back to walking. For all 800,000,000 car owners. And their families.

Did I get the math right?

If we had three trillion gallons of gas, we just might get to the point of wearing out all those cars.


I love this. You are amazing, Tony Prep. This is the kind of thing we need to get out there. I figure we'll be able to drive for just a little longer now, and then we're walking. We have to start to think about a car-free future. I think 31,250 more miles means we are on our last cars.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby Heineken » Wed 12 Dec 2007, 10:51:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'J')D remind me. What is your point anyway?


Yes, I'd like to see this rambling discussion get boiled down to the point, too. I have the feeling that once that point gets isolated, it becomes easily squashable.


Since early 2005, oil has peaked and global oil production has dropped by 2.5% (1.8mbd or roughly the amount of oil consumed by the UK). Meanwhile, the world economy has grown by 11%. Squash away.


You're basing your whole thesis on this couple of hazy, dinky little numbers?

Oil production numbers are notoriously imprecise. Read Simmons's book and that comes through very clearly. So we don't really know how much global oil production has dropped, if it has even dropped at all. One thing's for sure: Demand is as strong as or stronger than ever, because the world critically needs this stuff.

Also, do you even know what you mean when you say, "The world economy has grown by 11%"? I want to know EXACTLY what that means. Maybe 11% more shipments of shocking-orange toys from Red China?

If the real economy has grown 11% (very unlikely after subtracting inflation and other fluff), then we are just that more dependent on oil. That growth, like the infrastructure it creates, is oil-based and oil-dependent.

We are seeing plenty of signs of friction from peaking oil, especially soaring prices for everything from asphalt to those canned yams on the fast-emptying food-bank shelves. Anecdotes like Revi's are also telling. These problems ain't going away.

Even if you're right and oil production has fallen as much as you say and the real economy as grown as much as you say, you're overlooking the lag time in how the economy responds to changes in commodities supplies. This show is just getting started. Rome wasn't built in a day, and it took longer than a day to tear it down.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby JohnDenver » Wed 12 Dec 2007, 11:10:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'S')o how is it that the world economy is growing with declining oil production, and flat liquids production?
Perhaps you'd like to try an explanation, JD?

For me, oil consumption has continued to grow slowly, in the rich nations, that have the least energy intensive economies, and that can afford the high prices (pricing those in poorer countries out of the market). But economic growth has slowed, with many analysts worried about a recession, just around the corner.


Finally, a theory! Good job, Tony. That seems like a plausible explanation, but look closely at the U.N. world growth stats I referenced:
http://www.un.org/esa/policy/wess/wesp2 ... te2007.pdf

Most of the growth isn't occurring in the developed countries. Their growth was 2.5-3% for 2005-2007. Growth in subsaharan Africa was in the 6-7% range post peak. Latin America was around 5%. Least developed countries were 6-8%. The evidence suggests that the rich countries are not growing at the expense of the poor.

My theory is that high oil prices, per se, don't curb growth. Of course, oil *shocks* can have devastating economic effects, but it's not clear that peak oil will ever constitute an oil shock. Long plateaus, or undulations, or gentle declines may have completely different effects than abrupt shocks. I believe that a sustained high oil price is economically stimulative because it drives change and substitution. It's similar to how switching from videos to DVDs is stimulative. Everybody has to swap out their old equipment because the format has changed.

In many places in Africa and South America, high oil prices *are* growth. A poor country like Angola is making money and developing infrastructure due to the oil situation.

A lot of poor caribbean countries, like Cuba and Haiti, have a lot to gain from high sugar prices, and sugar cane ethanol.

Look at all the drilling and energy projects that are going on around the world. Backlogs everywhere. People churning out windmills and drilling rigs and trucks for the oil sands etc. Reopening old mines. It's completely the opposite of a recessionary climate, where the engineers and drillers and miners are unemployed. There is a ton of work to be done due to the high oil prices, and we have to do it because energy isn't optional. In a way, the relationship is backwards. High oil prices aren't driving down growth; high growth is driving up oil prices.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby jbeckton » Wed 12 Dec 2007, 14:05:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '$')1000/month is off-the-charts insane.


Surging oil prices crank up heating-cost forecasts

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or heating oil customers, a bad situation got even worse. Those who heat with heating oil are expected to pay a record $1,841 on average from October through March, up 25.6% from last year and $56 more than originally forecast. Heating oil bills are expected to be more than double those seen four years ago.


That averages to "only" about $230/mo.

Now that is still very expensive, but not exactly $1000/mo.

Drop the thermostat down to 62 degrees and I bet you shave 25% to coincide with the price of last year.

I think that high energy prices are the best thing for us all right now. I love it when I see gas at $3.25; there is no one looking at Hummers, they are all starring in amazement at the efficiency stickers over at the Toyota dealership.

Also, for the first time in awhile there is an incredible amount of interest in energy before the election.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby jbeckton » Wed 12 Dec 2007, 14:11:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SolarDave', '
')Just for grins, each has a 20 gallon gas tank.


I think the average tank is probably about 13-14 gallons.

So we get ~100 fill-ups before the party is over.

:)
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby TonyPrep » Wed 12 Dec 2007, 14:29:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') love this. You are amazing, Tony Prep. This is the kind of thing we need to get out there. I figure we'll be able to drive for just a little longer now, and then we're walking. We have to start to think about a car-free future. I think 31,250 more miles means we are on our last cars.
Actually, it was SolarDave that made those calculations.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby TonyPrep » Wed 12 Dec 2007, 14:33:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'M')ost of the growth isn't occurring in the developed countries. Their growth was 2.5-3% for 2005-2007. Growth in subsaharan Africa was in the 6-7% range post peak. Latin America was around 5%. Least developed countries were 6-8%. The evidence suggests that the rich countries are not growing at the expense of the poor.
Are you talking about percentage growth rates, or absolute GDP amounts, JD? Admittedly, I'm making an assumption that the absolute contribution to world GDP is still dominated by developed economies and by China, a rich country also.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby TheDude » Wed 12 Dec 2007, 15:24:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'T')he biggest obsticle to tar sands production is capital and labor being locked away in other, more productive ventures. If conventional oil goes into terminal decline overnight, where do you think the capital and labor will flow?

I'm betting capital and labor wont go into terminal decline nearly as soon as the continual predictions here.


Forgetting NG declines for the moment -

The Oilsands' Insatiable Thirst

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')everal oilsands developments are poised to launch in the coming years -- about $100 billion of investment clamouring to join Canada's great oilsands rush.

All need vast amounts of water.

Petroleum producers already use as much of the province's
water as every resident, business and industry in Calgary and Edmonton combined. And they have rights to triple that amount.

"The scale of development needs the world's attention," said Don van Hout, who led a canoe expedition this summer from the Athabasca's headwaters to its final destination in Lake Athabasca.

"It needs the world's help."

Once considered in abundance in the northern half of the province, water -- a key ingredient in oil and gas extraction -- is becoming a precious resource.

Some believe the water issue could eventually force Alberta to make a stark choice: water or oil.

"Water is clearly a limitation to development and a serious environmental concern," former Alberta Environment deputy minister Doug Radke wrote in a landmark report for the province last December.

Former premier Peter Lougheed has also weighed in, saying that without significant changes, "the issue of the water supply will become even more intense" if uncontrolled oilsands development swamps the Athabasca region.

As Suncor Energy itself cautioned in a sustainability report this year: "As an industry, we have gone from an era when water was abundant to one of potentially significant constraint."

The issue is quickly coming to a head.

Across Alberta, as the population grows and industrialization expands, the struggle for water is becoming a major concern: who has it, who doesn't, and do we have enough supply for the future?
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby cube » Wed 12 Dec 2007, 19:38:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '.')..
Bingo. (Thanks Tyler.)
Let's talk about Peak Oil. It's a past event that happened in May 2005.
On the contrary that can still be debated. It's normal for there to be "fluctuations" from year to year so IMHO it would take 5 years post peak to be absolutely 100% certain. If 2005 was the peak then I'll be convinced once we hit 2010. However there seams to be a consensus that we have hit peak light sweet crude oil if that makes you feel any better.

FYI I have a habit of making unpopular remarks but very "out of the box" ideas. For example I have mentioned before it is not the cost of crude oil but instead the reduced availability/production that will destroy the economy. The reason for this is what I call the "multiplier effect".
1 barrel of oil == $2,000 worth of economic activity.
shooting from the hip here - for every barrel of oil that gets lost due to PO, the world economy will lose $2,000 worth of GDP. 8)
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby Lanthanide » Wed 12 Dec 2007, 20:55:00

In the long run it will be the fuel shortages that screw us, not the prices.

If prices are high, people just use less and be more conservative. If the oil is simply not available, you have to turn to alternative methods, which are naturally not as desirable as the thing you are replacing or they would have been more popular to begin with. This leads you to whatever ramifications you want - trucking companies shutting down, unemployment, tourism shutting down, goods no longer being imported from overseas as cheaply, so the shops go out of business, leading to more unemployment.

I also think that people are focussing on production too much. Sitting on a plateu of oil production is fine as long as the same amount of oil is being exported to the 1st world countries. But as soon as the exported amount drops, the 1st world countries are going to feel the crunch, even if global oil production is still flat (or even if it goes up a little). With all the reports of massive growth occuring in the oil exporting nations, I think this is what is going to kick the ball rolling more than anything else. Of course it is possible that the markets will be able to control this - rising price of oil when exported to 1st world countries may ensure that their supplies don't drop off too quickly, but considering that it was essentially the markets that got us into this mess in the first place (by always wanting short-term profits, no matter the long-term consequences), I'm doubtful that they can effectively get us out of it.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby Tyler_JC » Wed 12 Dec 2007, 22:32:51

Eventually prices will increase to the point where OPEC countries won't be able to subsidize their own consumption anymore. They will be forced to reduce domestic consumption and sell more of their oil overseas.

The idea that Venezuela will continue selling gasoline at 20 cents a gallon to the locals if it has no export revenue is based on faulty reasoning, IMHO. Oil will go to the most efficient users of the resource because they can extract the most surplus from it.

Venezuela cannot fund its socialism if it can't export oil. At the end of the day, the poor will lose and the rich will win in the oil game.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby cube » Wed 12 Dec 2007, 23:10:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lanthanide', 'I')n the long run it will be the fuel shortages that screw us, not the prices.

If prices are high, people just use less and be more conservative. If the oil is simply not available, you have to turn to alternative methods, which are naturally not as desirable as the thing you are replacing or they would have been more popular to begin with.
I'd like to add to add to this.

A lot of techno-cornucopians like to believe that once we hit PO alternatives will "jump in" immediately. For example if peak is at 85 mbpd of oil and then drops to 84 next year then the world is short 1 mbpd. This shortage of 1 mbpd will NOT and will NEVER be replaced. People will have to reduce their consumption. I firmly believe "alternatives" will not "jump in.....if they even do!" until we get much further down the oil production slope perhaps at 50% and here's why.

There's a lot of "marginal" businesses with a very weak financial base. Struggling airline companies and truck drivers in the business of hauling lettuce 3,000 miles are prime examples. It would be "cheaper" to let these businesses die rather then use alternative energy to save them. Alternative energy is simply too expensive to be diverted to such "marginal" businesses.

However "marginal" businesses still == jobs and taxes and that's where the pain will come from....NOT high oil prices. It's an absolute fact, we're not going to be using windmills and solar panels to keep Las Vegas casinos open 24 hr post peak. :P

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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby WebHubbleTelescope » Wed 12 Dec 2007, 23:25:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', 'I') don't know what kind of crap JD is trying to pull. You fight empty rhetoric with empty rhetoric. By his logic we shouldn't even be talking about anything because it was all preordained almost 50 years ago.


Hmm?

He's saying that oil peaked 2 years ago and yet the global economy is still growing briskly.


No. That's not one I am saying. The idiot says we should stop talking about something because the peak already occurred. Jaysus, by that token we should have stopped talking about it 40 years ago, because it was preordained a peak would occur in the future based on a discovery peak.

Hmmm?
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby KillTheHumans » Thu 13 Dec 2007, 11:24:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', 'I') don't know what kind of crap JD is trying to pull. You fight empty rhetoric with empty rhetoric. By his logic we shouldn't even be talking about anything because it was all preordained almost 50 years ago.


Hmm?

He's saying that oil peaked 2 years ago and yet the global economy is still growing briskly.


No. That's not one I am saying. The idiot says we should stop talking about something because the peak already occurred. Jaysus, by that token we should have stopped talking about it 40 years ago, because it was preordained a peak would occur in the future based on a discovery peak.

Hmmm?


Sounds reasonable. But peak didn't occur BECAUSE of discovery peaking earlier, peak occurs because in a finite supply environment balanced against any variable demand rate, sooner or later, there will be a maximum rate by definition. The discovery peak occurred because of the same reason, seems like.

But I like your idea, we ought to stop worrying about it soon if only because it sure doesn't seem to be bothering anyone much.

yeah yeah I know, someone in a subsidized economy somewhere is ticked off they can't get their 20 cent/gallon gasoline, but thats a different problem.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby TonyPrep » Thu 13 Dec 2007, 14:18:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', 'B')ut I like your idea, we ought to stop worrying about it soon if only because it sure doesn't seem to be bothering anyone much.
So, because the current plateau "doesn't seem to be bothering anyone much," a continued plateau and subsequent decline will never bother anyone much? What is your reasoning behind that?
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