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THE Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

The Dow Jones will be..

Poll ended at Wed 15 Jun 2005, 20:53:42

Be the same.
10
No votes
Below 10,000.
7
No votes
Below 9,000.
4
No votes
Below 8,000.
7
No votes
Below 7,000
5
No votes
Below 6,000.
2
No votes
5,000 and below.
29
No votes
 
Total votes : 64

Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Unread postby IrrationalExuberanceMonky » Fri 27 Jul 2007, 19:52:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'S')ay that again. In English and with punctuation. :wink:


Translation (my take): We'll go down for awhile. If we rally, sell into it. Then we should go still lower - if the numbers look good, buy at around Dow 12800. That should take between 1 and 2 months.

The Yen carry trade will be back, since the 180 basis point yield on bonds is simply too attractive to ignore.


OK long version:

"Should've been a no-brainer cover at the closing levels."

=Folks should've covered shorts at the closing prices today as we were hitting solid short term support prices (where demand can be expected to come in based on previous chart action).

"I-bank/HF Stop hunting?"

Investment banks and Hedge Funds (and those bastard brokers) sniff out 'stops' basically a point where technical traders will sell/buy
that market, for example if people cluster a stop loss at a low level and the big boys 'hunt' that the price will go down (from the stops triggering selling) and then they buy that low.

As for the prices they're solid technical levels to work from, as is the
fact that we're not oversold on technical indicators....

As for the carry trade, well a japanese gets 1.8% (180BP) they ain't gonna stay in Japan!
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Unread postby cube » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 17:56:02

Normally when the Dow dips it rebounds very easily next week.

NOT this time! :twisted:

Is it just me or is there a lot more "volatility" in the market these days? Whatever happened to the "old days" when:

If you went long, you could not be wrong. :roll:
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Unread postby Roccland » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 17:58:17

And here is the kicker...

the dollar fell with the DOW.

This means things are much worse than they appear.

Game OVER.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Unread postby IrrationalExuberanceMonky » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 21:26:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', 'A')nd here is the kicker...

the dollar fell with the DOW.

This means things are much worse than they appear.

Game OVER.


Nah, the dollar sold off on a weak NFP report and technicals, this was psychological selling in stocks on friday (fear). The institutional bids came in mid week to buy the technical low to bump up Q3 profits but the "low" was trash, no bids turning us around so things got nasty at the end of the day friday. It's all volatile and ugly, the media is doom pimping, so a rally next week seems like a good bet for a few reasons, but this whole thing should be the first "real" correction since 2002 (up to 10% on the SPX maybe even more, worse on the RUT, NAZ & DOW should hold up better). That big f'ckn candle slicing through the 200DMA on the SPX was just ugly as hell, the institutional money watches those points closely. Daytraders, Hedge Funds and I-Bank proprietary traders will buy these oversold markets in the day, don't expect them to hang around for the close though....

Funny thing was watching those Dow components, the block bids were itching on those EOD rallys for the few Dow components in the small representation of US stocks that the Dow is to buy. Just plain nasty (short term).

Gonna be a fun week! :-D
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Unread postby IrrationalExuberanceMonky » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 21:42:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'N')ormally when the Dow dips it rebounds very easily next week.

NOT this time! :twisted:

Is it just me or is there a lot more "volatility" in the market these days? Whatever happened to the "old days" when:

If you went long, you could not be wrong. :roll:


There was relatively NO volatility in this bull market (2002-present) it was ridiculous the VIX hit historic lows. The spreads on ANYTHING over treasurys were even more ridiculous. You didn't have to be Buffet or Livermore to know that'll change! Dumbass streeters! :-D Volatility and those spreads were as low as you can possibly get.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Unread postby Grimnir » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 22:32:32

So is this the game then? Ratchet the Dow down by having it drop on Fridays when people aren't paying attention, then rise by a lesser amount on Mondays when they are?
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Unread postby Twilight » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 22:50:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Grimnir', 'S')o is this the game then? Ratchet the Dow down by having it drop on Fridays when people aren't paying attention, then rise by a lesser amount on Mondays when they are?

If it was as simple as slow-crashing while Mr. and Mrs. Average are too busy drinking and watching Friday night entertainment to check their index-linked savings account, then maybe. (Who am I kidding, do they still have those?)

But really whenever you try to sneak past someone, fate puts a squeaky floorboard in your way, like a big-name European bank imploding. That sort of thing gets everyone's attention if it happens.

The problem is the world's electronic economy is a network of black boxes full of crap, and I doubt even the greatest experts can see the full picture at this point. Unintended consequences are everywhere, about the only thing any of us regular people can do is watch it popcorn in hand for morbid entertainment purposes while hoping our employers are not going to be among those with financing that gets pulled.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Unread postby Roccland » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 22:54:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IrrationalExuberanceMonky', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', 'A')nd here is the kicker...

the dollar fell with the DOW.

This means things are much worse than they appear.

Game OVER.


Nah, the dollar sold off on a weak NFP report and technicals, this was psychological selling in stocks on friday (fear). The institutional bids came in mid week to buy the technical low to bump up Q3 profits but the "low" was trash, no bids turning us around so things got nasty at the end of the day friday. It's all volatile and ugly, the media is doom pimping, so a rally next week seems like a good bet for a few reasons, but this whole thing should be the first "real" correction since 2002 (up to 10% on the SPX maybe even more, worse on the RUT, NAZ & DOW should hold up better). That big f'ckn candle slicing through the 200DMA on the SPX was just ugly as hell, the institutional money watches those points closely. Daytraders, Hedge Funds and I-Bank proprietary traders will buy these oversold markets in the day, don't expect them to hang around for the close though....

Funny thing was watching those Dow components, the block bids were itching on those EOD rallys for the few Dow components in the small representation of US stocks that the Dow is to buy. Just plain nasty (short term).

Gonna be a fun week! :-D


Guess we are just gonna see what happens Sunday night with the yen...to see how Monday shakes out...after that it is on the Fed...less than 1% chance of rate drop, but hey anything is possible.

We may be heading back to 2006 numbers on short order.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Unread postby Eli » Sat 04 Aug 2007, 00:03:02

The wheels have come off this time.

Real Estate was the one thing really keeping things humming. Hell, the only thing we have really been exporting have been factories and jobs for the last 7 years.

The housing was driven by the mortgage industry and that was driven by larger banks that were driven by Greenspan and the Fed.

The Mortgage industry has blown up.

Billions of dollars is gone, and it is going to get much much worse. All those people with Arms are going to get slaughtered which was about half the homes sold in the last two years. The rate that they are going to have to be charged will kill them.

Watch the Yen, if it dislocates over night on Sunday, we will all remember Monday for the rest of our lives.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Unread postby Roccland » Sat 04 Aug 2007, 00:41:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'T')he wheels have come off this time.

Real Estate was the one thing really keeping things humming. Hell, the only thing we have really been exporting have been factories and jobs for the last 7 years.

The housing was driven by the mortgage industry and that was driven by larger banks that were driven by Greenspan and the Fed.

The Mortgage industry has blown up.

Billions of dollars is gone, and it is going to get much much worse. All those people with Arms are going to get slaughtered which was about half the homes sold in the last two years. The rate that they are going to have to be charged will kill them.

Watch the Yen, if it dislocates over night on Sunday, we will all remember Monday for the rest of our lives.


Agreed...and the effects of a credit contracting world will take many paths..one of which could easily be "clean energy" like C02 sequestration.

Years past money was easy and credit was free to pursue even a dialouge of C02 sequestration efforts (whether or not it would work is not attendant to having the discussion)...now a real hard look at the economic viability of "clean energy" will take pole position.

The effects on aging infrastructure...gas for school buses...a tax base for road imporvements all connected to easy and risky money.

It is now over.

Mark your calendars, for today the shit hit the fan as seen in real time when Bear Stearns spooked the markets with a string of a dozen words or so.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Unread postby newman1979 » Sat 04 Aug 2007, 12:00:52

The PPT and its counterparts around the world are intervening in markets too much. The 240 point (straight up) recovery earlier this week in the last 1/2 hour was manipulated intervention, IMO, by the PPT and Paulson. It would be interesting to look at his personal holdings, blind or hidden to see if "insider" knowledge is afoot. The credit problem with derivatives being out of control is dangerous for investors in bonds, stocks and real estate.
The yen carry trade and undervalued yen combined with a false interest rate in Japan are overhangs on world markets. Oil and oil wars are also overhangs. With M3 money supply growing at 13% around the world gold looks good, except that central banks intervene in that market also.
OPEC and Russia will be under pressure to "save" the OECD markets. But is that their responsibility? Given their domestic issues, i.e. Islam and attacks on Muslims through the Iraq war, Palestine, and Lebanon, a strong case is made to squeeze the oil market for all they can get. There are, of course, counterbalancing policy options, but if the West always wants to dictate policy, don't they have to show strength to get a seat at the table?
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Unread postby TonisD » Sat 04 Aug 2007, 14:45:32

What exactly does happen on Sunday regarding Yen and the US dollar?
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Unread postby Eli » Sat 04 Aug 2007, 16:00:43

What happens is the number of Yen that the US dollar buys starts to drop. This is a bad thing because, there are a lot of people who have borrowed trillions of Yen and invested it in the US in dollars.

The Yen was loaned at 0% interest or near zero by the Banks in Japan.

When the Yen to dollar drops too much people get a squeezed in the carry trade. If their sure thing US investment starts to tank they not only loose that investment but they get caught in the currency conversion back to Yen.

This has the potential to turn into a mad dash back into the Yen.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Unread postby Homesteader » Sat 04 Aug 2007, 23:09:43

I hope you guys comment on what is going down vis-a-vis the yen in the next couple of days. I wouldn't begin to know where to find out about this stuff other than here.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Unread postby Roccland » Sat 04 Aug 2007, 23:17:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', 'I') hope you guys comment on what is going down vis-a-vis the yen in the next couple of days. I wouldn't begin to know where to find out about this stuff other than here.


Stream live here - look at USD/JPY line.

fxstreet


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')At 5 p.m. on Sunday, New York time, the financial centers in Sydney and Singapore open for business and trading begins. The market in Tokyo opens at 7 p.m., followed by London at 2 a.m. and finally New York at 8 a.m.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Unread postby Daculling » Sun 05 Aug 2007, 10:37:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', 'I') hope you guys comment on what is going down vis-a-vis the yen in the next couple of days. I wouldn't begin to know where to find out about this stuff other than here.


Try here...

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Unread postby Homesteader » Sun 05 Aug 2007, 11:18:35

Rocc & Dac,

Thanks, I'll take a look this evening.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Unread postby IrrationalExuberanceMonky » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 20:07:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', 'R')occ & Dac,

Thanks, I'll take a look this evening.


USD/JPY is deceptive....
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Unread postby Bewildebeest » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 20:22:23

How so?
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Unread postby IrrationalExuberanceMonky » Tue 14 Aug 2007, 17:20:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bewildebeest', 'H')ow so?


The BOJ are the biggest manipulators on the planet and USD/JPY is what they spend most of their time manipulating. To get an indication of the state of the carry trade you're better off using NZD/JPY or AUD/JPY, as they are the high yielding crosses out of first world economys and the fact they are small economys means Fukui can't be Fuked to manipulate them.
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