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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

The Dow Jones will be..

Poll ended at Wed 15 Jun 2005, 20:53:42

Be the same.
10
No votes
Below 10,000.
7
No votes
Below 9,000.
4
No votes
Below 8,000.
7
No votes
Below 7,000
5
No votes
Below 6,000.
2
No votes
5,000 and below.
29
No votes
 
Total votes : 64

Re: Dow Jones Futures way down for Wednesday

Unread postby TimeTraveller » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 04:32:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'L')ook at the bright side: PO now becomes a non-issue!

Wait a minute...that's a bright side? 8O :? :shock:


Oh yeah. I almost forgot this is a peak oil website! :razz:
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Re: Dow Jones Futures way down for Wednesday

Unread postby TimeTraveller » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 04:38:33

On another note, I think US markets will close prematurely early today. So far (recently), I haven't seen US futures down so low so early. I expect perhaps -800 point drop today.
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Re: Dow Jones Futures way down for Wednesday

Unread postby heroineworshipper » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 05:43:21

Already planning on a complete collapse of the human race & having to walk across the country with a sack in search of a farm to grow food on. Maybe collect a mouse as a pet & grow some grapes of wrath.
People first, then things, then dollars.
There will be enslavement, cannibalism, & zombie invasions.
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Re: Dow Jones Futures way down for Wednesday

Unread postby ohanian » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 05:54:45

Image

What a dream!!!
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Re: Dow Has Worst Year Since 1937

Unread postby joewp » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 06:26:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbrovont', 'I') noticed a big theme in the debates was "lower taxes, spend more, pay down the deficit" except when McCain said spending freeze between saying spend more and spend more.

The only way to do those three things together, is to inflate.


That's true, but you're only getting the initial inflation from the Fed creating the money as government debt. At this point, the multiplier effect (banks loaning money) is pretty much seized up. You can only have 10% of the intended inflation without the banks joining in.
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Re: Dow Jones Futures way down for Wednesday

Unread postby Dan1195 » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 07:13:14

Might have been a sticksave today with the coordinated 0.5% global interest rate cut just announced. Dow Futures now UP 200. European markets have recovered most of their losses today also.
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Re: Dow Jones Futures way down for Wednesday

Unread postby pedalling_faster » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 08:35:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', '[')img]http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/dow_36000_1.png[/img]

What a dream!!!


maybe they were trying to out-fantasize them. Wired magazine had an article 10 years ago entitled "Dow 40,000".
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Re: Dow Jones Futures way down for Wednesday

Unread postby jasonraymondson » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 08:40:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pedalling_faster', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', '[')img]http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/dow_36000_1.png[/img]

What a dream!!!


maybe they were trying to out-fantasize them. Wired magazine had an article 10 years ago entitled "Dow 40,000".


Ahhhh. Shucks, look at all of that magical fairy thinking. Just warms your heart dontcha know.
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Re: Dow Jones Futures way down for Wednesday

Unread postby jasonraymondson » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 08:44:31

Actually the futures are all up, must have gone up after benny made the announcement.

Pointless though, a 1/2 percent won't do jack shit to fend the collapse off. But I guess some people on wall street figure this might be a good day for profit taking.
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Re: Dow Jones Futures way down for Wednesday

Unread postby Arsenal » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 08:56:30

That jump didn't last long. Down to +31 for Dow futures.

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If the American people ever allow the banks to control issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers occupied. T Jefferson
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Re: Dow Jones Futures way down for Wednesday

Unread postby Arsenal » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 09:00:47

Spoke too soon.

-194.00 right now.

Yuck.
If the American people ever allow the banks to control issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers occupied. T Jefferson
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Re: Dow Jones Futures way down for Wednesday

Unread postby jasonraymondson » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 09:17:51

Whew. that was crazy. The stock market is so volatile
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Re: Dow Jones Futures way down for Wednesday

Unread postby Specop_007 » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 09:25:03

Too many people thought unlimited growth wasnt just possible, but expected. In the past 15 years or so there was a general change in the mindset of investors to where the stock market was not looked at as a risk based investment but rather guarenteed money.

Now we are seeing what really amounts to nothing more then a cyclical pattern of the market and a downturn and contraction of the past 15 or 20 years worth of growth.

Unfortunately due to the changed mindset people somehow think this is a disaster (and I suppose for many ill informed investors it is) which should have never been allowed to happen. More to the point it was a disaster that could never have been avoided. Unlimited growth is simply an impossibility when chained to limited resources (Whatever trhose may be...).

Rest assured we will see more corrections. Rest assured too its not the end of the world. A day will come when the market has stabilized.
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Re: Dow Jones Futures way down for Wednesday

Unread postby Roccland » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 09:36:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', '
')
Rest assured we will see more corrections. Rest assured too its not the end of the world. A day will come when the market has stabilized.


Kewl

you care to put a date on any of this?
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Re: Dow Jones Futures way down for Wednesday

Unread postby Arsenal » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 09:37:42

While I agree that this is a cyclical part of the market. Most of the time it is a recession that we have for 5-10 years until we dig out of it. The problem is when you take 15-20 years of growth and then compress the market contraction into under 1 year.

Heart arrhythmia vs HEART ATTACK One can be dealt with and the other kills you most of the time.

Or another one. Walk down a flight of stairs or having the cable cut on the elevator. Either way you are still at the bottom but one is really messy.
If the American people ever allow the banks to control issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers occupied. T Jefferson
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Re: Dow Jones Futures way down for Wednesday

Unread postby Specop_007 » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 09:52:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', '
')
Rest assured we will see more corrections. Rest assured too its not the end of the world. A day will come when the market has stabilized.


Kewl

you care to put a date on any of this?


Thats as impossible as it comes. Historically, "a few years". However we've had a great deal of intervention from governments so that changes the dynamics of the game.

Simply put I'm not so confident (arrogant?) as to name a date. At a wild ass guess.... 1-2 years if we have a fast contraction, 3-6 if it were left more "hands off" before things are for the most part fully stabilized and corrected.

But your looking at a total range of 5 years in my two estimates between best case and worse case (Which is best vs worst is up to you!).

If someone told me to pick a number based on what I think......2 years, give or take a few months before its generally safe to jump back in. Under a year if your damned savvy (Or damned dumb!).
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Dow on 9/11/01 -- 9605; Dow on 9/11/09 -- 9605

Unread postby Sixstrings » Fri 11 Sep 2009, 23:29:25

Doesn't mean anything, but very weird coincidence, separated by just .10 points
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=dji&close_date=9/11/2001&x=49&y=19
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Re: Dow on 9/11/01 -- 9605; Dow on 9/11/09 -- 9605

Unread postby pup55 » Sat 12 Sep 2009, 03:11:13

[url]Doesn't mean anything[/url]

Yes it does. It means that if you put $1000 into your 401K in 2001 you got squat for capital appreciation over the past 8 years....You might have been living high for a couple of months back in 2007 when it was 14000 or something, which may have induced you to go out and buy some things you had no business buying.

Adjusting for the stated rate of inflation caused you to be a money loser during that period of time.

Adjusting for the actual/unstated rate of inflation it was even worse.

If you had deep enough pockets to buy a share of Berkshire Hathaway corp, run by Warren Buffett, the world's greatest investor, you would have done a bit better. In September 2001 one share was $70,000, now it's $99,000 for a ROR of just a bit over 5%, since Buffett does not pay a dividend.

So if you were a holder of capital during this period, you are pretty sad right now. You are not being compensated for your risk, for inflation or for anything else.

Now if you had bought gold at 276, you would be happier now with it at 1010....

and if you had some room to store a few barrels of crude oil, you would have gone from 28.03 to today's price of about 71.

Your house has probably done about the same as the Dow.

So I guess for this period, you would have been better off as an owner of "stuff" rather than financial assets, or real estate.

Wonder what will happen over the next 8 years?
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Re: Dow on 9/11/01 -- 9605; Dow on 9/11/09 -- 9605

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Sat 12 Sep 2009, 10:50:36

I'm going to plant a tree today. At least I can be sure THAT will grow.
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Re: Dow on 9/11/01 -- 9605; Dow on 9/11/09 -- 9605

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sat 12 Sep 2009, 11:18:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', 'I')'m going to plant a tree today. At least I can be sure THAT will grow.



post of the day.
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