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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

The Dow Jones will be..

Poll ended at Wed 15 Jun 2005, 20:53:42

Be the same.
10
No votes
Below 10,000.
7
No votes
Below 9,000.
4
No votes
Below 8,000.
7
No votes
Below 7,000
5
No votes
Below 6,000.
2
No votes
5,000 and below.
29
No votes
 
Total votes : 64

Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby skiwi » Tue 14 Aug 2007, 19:47:11

A good wrap-up of some of the days main points.

Credit worries, Wal-Mart slam Wall St

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')S stocks skidded overnight on fresh signs that global credit markets were seizing up,.

A lower profit forecast from Wal-Mart Stores also renewed worries about consumer spending.

Wal-Mart's pessimistic outlook and subsequent news that a US investment firm wants to halt redemptions delivered a one-two punch to already shaky confidence.

"Sentinel caught the biggest headlines today, and there were rumours about more liquidity issues and more distress concerning the investment banks," said David Katz, chief investment officer at Matrix Asset Advisors in New York...

..Home Depot Inc. shares dropped 4.9 per cent to $33.52 after the home improvement store reported its first quarterly sales decline in more than four years as the housing market softened...

..Inflicting further pain on financial stocks was news that a Canadian trust couldn't find the funds it needed to repay outstanding asset-backed commercial paper and that a bank had declined to provide liquidity.

And Swiss bank UBS, the world's largest wealth manager, warned that market turmoil was likely to hit its investment banking business in the second half of the year...

..Shares of Countrywide Financial Corp., the largest US mortgage lender, skidded 8.1 per cent to $24.46 after the company said foreclosures and delinquencies rose in July to their highest level in at least several years...

..US crude oil for September delivery gained 76 cents to settle at $72.38 a barrel.

In economic news, rising energy costs drove up US producer prices last month, while the trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in June on stronger exports, according to reports, suggesting the Federal Reserve will remain cautious about cutting interest rates.
Let us make him who shall nourish and sustain us. What shall we do to be invoked; to be remembered in the earth.
We have tried with our first creatures but we could not make them venerate us.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby IrrationalExuberanceMonky » Tue 14 Aug 2007, 19:49:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IrrationalExuberanceMonky', 'a') short
at 13640 if we get there,


^This is what I wrote on July 28th (Dow 13265 close) three trading days before the first short term low.

Intraday high was 13695, close was 13657 on the 8th of August for the short term rally up. Just letting you all know. Now we're on our way down again... 8)

Third of a third in Elliot counts coming up. 8)

Next stop 12800 on the INDU...

But you know gold stocks are great, energy stocks are great, that's what those bear notes tell you right? You think you won't get taken down and panic and sell at the bottom? Maybe YOU wont, but some peak oil aware folks will....

I hope you'll forgive me for tooting my own horn! :-D
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby cube » Wed 15 Aug 2007, 17:17:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IrrationalExuberanceMonky said yesterday', '
')Next stop 12800 on the INDU...

DOW JONES - Today Aug 15 wed == 12,861

Damn that's some good fortune telling!
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby Zardoz » Wed 15 Aug 2007, 17:29:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IrrationalExuberanceMonky', 'I') hope you'll forgive me for tooting my own horn!

Of course. Glad you pointed it out. We need somebody who can do some accurate prognosticating around here.

So, what do you see happening over the next couple of months?
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby Eli » Wed 15 Aug 2007, 18:09:05

Well the Yen is up now to 116.50 level against the dollar and it continues to strengthen, and it is doing the same against the Euro too.

The question becomes at what level does a forced unwind kick in?

If a forced unwind of the Yen kicks in that would be like taking this market that is already getting kicked in the yarballs and pushing it off a cliff.


Oops sorry it has been five minutes since my post now 116.3o level.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby Roccland » Wed 15 Aug 2007, 18:25:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he question becomes at what level does a forced unwind kick in?



I have heard 116 is a bad place to be. Of course lower is worse.

116.32 currently
500 MPH into a brick wall - me
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby firestarter » Wed 15 Aug 2007, 18:35:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', '
')
The question becomes at what level does a forced unwind kick in?

.



I've read from various sources the magic number is 115.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby ohanian » Thu 16 Aug 2007, 18:45:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IrrationalExuberanceMonky', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bewildebeest', 'H')ow so?


The BOJ are the biggest manipulators on the planet and USD/JPY is what they spend most of their time manipulating. To get an indication of the state of the carry trade you're better off using NZD/JPY or AUD/JPY, as they are the high yielding crosses out of first world economys and the fact they are small economys means Fukui can't be Fuked to manipulate them.


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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby Novus » Fri 17 Aug 2007, 06:47:32

Thursday was bad but Friday is going to be worse. Japan's stock market layed an egg over night by plunging over 870 points. This is very bad. Lets see if the stock market can weather this one.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby Troyboy1208 » Fri 17 Aug 2007, 13:30:30

Its a great market for bargain hunters. I have a feeling it will go up today
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby Eli » Fri 17 Aug 2007, 13:48:02

Yeah this a great time to find some great bargains.

Rushing in now would be like moving into your awesome corner office in one World Trade Center Place at 8:45 am September 11, 2001.

Nothing has changed fundamentally, if anything this is a bad sign.

The Nikkei came apart and gave up 840 and the Yen was up to 112.

Consumer confidence dropped like a rock, and trillions in bad mortgage s are still out there.

I just sold all my bargains have at them.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby Cobra_Strike » Fri 17 Aug 2007, 14:53:14

The Feds rate cut is simply an admission that things are going badly.

This is nothing yet, when things get going trading will be halted.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby cube » Fri 17 Aug 2007, 17:59:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cobra_Strike', 'T')he Feds rate cut is simply an admission that things are going badly.
I guess Jim Cramer must be happy now:

MARKET MELTDOWN

However the market is bigger then any government or central banker. There will come a time when the markets will nose dive and the combined might of all the bankers in the world aren't going to be able to stop it.

Remember they can't cut rates too low or we'll have inflation Zimbabwe style. :P
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby manu » Sat 18 Aug 2007, 03:28:19

Which will melt first, the world economy or the North Pole?
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby IrrationalExuberanceMonky » Mon 20 Aug 2007, 18:03:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IrrationalExuberanceMonky said yesterday', '
')Next stop 12800 on the INDU...

DOW JONES - Today Aug 15 wed == 12,861

Damn that's some good fortune telling!
Image


Thanks! I want to thank Jesse Livermore, Martin Pring, John Murphy, R.N Elliot, Bob Prechter and Jesus *tears in eyes* This means a lot! I wouldn't be here if it wasn't G-d's will! Praise the lord! :-D
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby IrrationalExuberanceMonky » Mon 20 Aug 2007, 18:14:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IrrationalExuberanceMonky', 'I') hope you'll forgive me for tooting my own horn!

Of course. Glad you pointed it out. We need somebody who can do some accurate prognosticating around here.

So, what do you see happening over the next couple of months?


Well I was of the opinion for a top Q1 2008 or early Q2 2008, but the price action nowadays is spooking me. So, I'm not sure at the moment. Basically if we take out 12800 on the DOW with negative internals it will be a bear RIGHT NOW. Otherwise, the suckers that have sold are gonna watch this baby go up untill Q1/2 2008 and then buy like the suckers they are.

I gotta do my Elliot counts (and other stuff) to find specific price targets. I'll throw 'em up here when I do. PLEASE DO NOT USE MY INFO FOR TRADING OR INVESTING THOUGH! Taking others advice without incorporating it into a rigid trading/investment system is not healthy for your finances, please do not use my info for any investment purposes.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby Eli » Mon 20 Aug 2007, 18:24:10

I got to say I am willing to take a time out and miss out on the upside, the downside risk is huge.

The Feds actions seem to have further spooked the market rather than to calm it down.

The US treasuries dropped more than they ever had since 911 and the 1987 crash. People are pulling their money out of Money markets and putting it into treasuries.

People are right to be nervous, these lying jerks are hiding the fact that they are holding a sack of crap, rather than let the market work it out the Fed steps in. Because we had a 10% correction in the market? Cramer had a nice little freak out?
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby IrrationalExuberanceMonky » Mon 20 Aug 2007, 18:31:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IrrationalExuberanceMonky', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bewildebeest', 'H')ow so?


The BOJ are the biggest manipulators on the planet and USD/JPY is what they spend most of their time manipulating. To get an indication of the state of the carry trade you're better off using NZD/JPY or AUD/JPY, as they are the high yielding crosses out of first world economys and the fact they are small economys means Fukui can't be Fuked to manipulate them.


Image


Says it all in a chart huh? :)
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby IrrationalExuberanceMonky » Mon 20 Aug 2007, 18:44:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'I') got to say I am willing to take a time out and miss out on the upside, the downside risk is huge.

The Feds actions seem to have further spooked the market rather than to calm it down.

The US treasuries dropped more than they ever had since 911 and the 1987 crash. People are pulling their money out of Money markets and putting it into treasuries.


A-motherfarking-men, basically the market psychology turned on a dime back in July! It was amazing, every punk stock from then on better put up incredible growth or get raped! Now you have the discount rate cut and a muted reaction! :-D What's the reaction from the next fed meeting? If they go 25 BP the market will STILL get smacked around IMO! If they go 50 BP, the dollar gets raped :-D :-D

For long time market watchers this is about the best fun you can have with your clothes on. :-D :-D
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby burtonridr » Mon 20 Aug 2007, 19:00:39

Anyone else notice the above average volume on the down trading..... not a good sign.
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