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The human cost of fossil fuels

Public Policy

We should account for the costs of disease and death from fossil fuel pollution in climate change policies

Buildings and houses are covered with a thick haze in Seoul, South Korea in February 2014.
Buildings and houses are covered with a thick haze in Seoul, South Korea in February 2014. Photograph: Ahn Young-joon/AP

While the climate policy world is littered with numbers, three of them have dominated recent discourse: 2, 1000, and 66.

At the 2015 U.N. climate summit in Paris, world leaders agreed to limit global warming below 2°C to avoid catastrophic impacts of human-caused climate change. The science consequently dictates that, for a 50% chance of staying below 2°C, around 1,000 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (or 300 billion tonnes of carbon) can be emitted between now and 2050, and close to zero thereafter. We’re currently emitting 36 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. However, the potential greenhouse gas emissions contained in known, extractable fossil fuel reserves are around three times higher than this carbon budget, meaning that 66% must be kept in the ground.

The debate du jour thus centers on which emissions reduction pathway is most optimal for staying below 2°C. The calculus of many policymakers, economists, fossil fuel companies, and indeed scientists, is that the most economical way to stay below 2°C is to delay most emissions reductions for decades to come, and then to play catch up by relying heavily on as-yet technically and economically unviable negative-emissions technologies. However, a crucial number has been neglected in this mainstream calculation: 6.1 million.

Each year, 6.1 million lives are lost prematurely due to air pollution. Though most acutely and visibly hampering megacities of the developing world, air pollution is a growing public health emergency that affects almost all of us in our daily lives, whether or not we are aware of it. The Health Effects Institute estimates that only 5% of the global population are lucky enough to live in areas with air pollution levels below safe guidelines. Though recent studies suggest there may in fact be no risk-free level of air pollution.

Why is this number relevant to climate policy? Because one common culprit is responsible for the majority of both climate change and air pollution: fuel combustion. Burning coal, oil, natural gas, and biomass – for everyday uses ranging from electricity, heating, cooking, to transportation – releases hundreds of gases and particles, some of which disrupt the climate system or are harmful to human health, or both. Climate change could also worsen air quality in the future.

Decades of research have revealed that air pollution is associated with a wide range of diseases and disorders, including asthma, cancer, heart disease, stroke, and premature birth. There is also emerging evidence that pollution from coal combustion and motor vehicles can cause development delays, reduced IQ, and autism in children. The societal and economic costs of air pollution are multifold. There are costs to the affected individuals, to their families and to society in terms of direct medical costs, costs to healthcare systems, productivity losses, and lower economic growth (not to mention costs resulting from damages to ecosystems).

Yet almost none of these costs stemming from our fossil fuel reliance are included in the majority of cost-benefit analyses of climate mitigation strategies. A recent study estimates that the health co-benefits from air pollution reductions would outweigh the mitigation costs of staying below 2°C by 140–250% globally. Historical evidence paints a similar picture. The EPA estimates that the U.S. Clean Air Amendments cost $65bn to implement, but will have yielded a benefit of almost $2tn by 2020 in avoided health costs.

Many public healthexpert groups have underscored the enormous opportunity for leaders worldwide to design policies and initiatives that will simultaneously tackle climate change and air pollution. Examples include replacing the most carbon-intensive and polluting sources such as coal and heavy-duty diesel with lower-emission or renewable alternatives, ending fossil fuel subsidies, redesigning urban spaces to make it easier and safer to commute by foot, bicycle, and public transportation, and transitioning to a more circular and sustainable economy. While the climatic mitigation effects of such measures are long-term and dispersed globally, the health benefits are immediate and local.

For too long, the enormous toll of disease and deaths from fossil fuel pollution has been neglected in climate change policies and underappreciated by the public. But public health data makes it clear that not all 2°C scenarios are created equal. The lives and well-being of hundreds of millions of us – especially our children – could be at stake. We would be remiss to ignore it.

Dr. Ploy Achakulwisut is a Postdoctoral Scientist at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health. She has a PhD in Atmospheric Science from Harvard University.

Guardian



232 Comments on "The human cost of fossil fuels"

  1. Davy on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 3:32 pm 

    nedernazi, your buddy greggie is not a holocaust denier. He also agrees Hitler was a monster albeit after he waffler around the subject like he does. You see greggie has no moral anchor. His morality is hate based and revolves around the ends of anti-Americanism so lying and distorting the truth is fine if it contributes to that end. This is the case until he starts to look bad then he will waffle to whatever makes him appear respectable.

  2. Cloggie on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 4:18 pm 

    Clogmeister, your buddy greggie is not a holocaust denier.

    I know. Not that he will give me a single name and proof of a person who is gassed.

    And you certainly will not provide me with one. Dummies like you think that Germany should be punished because of its “merciless bombing campaign”, where in reality it were the f* Anglos who began bombing civilian targets in Germany and in the end dropped 20 times as much TNT on Germany as the other way around. Got your ass kicked yet again, eh?

    How many bombs did the Germans throw on America? Zero.

    What is your proof that the Germans wanted to conquer the world? Zero. It were and are the Americans who tried to do that since 1933. Not even you deny the existence of the US empire. Are you seriously going to claim that America “accidentally” became the owner of half of the world and is now trying to submit the rest (which will fail, as everybody meanwhile understands the motives of you sleazeballs). Just read the comments of complete idiots like paultard and millikike how they intent to destroy Russia, kill millions and take Siberia and what not. Have you any idea how you look like in the eyes of the rest of the world?

    But your game is over. America is about to fall apart over the issue of race:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Va6MAwexpnE

    America is a problem that is about to solve itself. Hopefully America won’t drag the rest of the world with it into the abyss.

    He also agrees Hitler was a monster albeit after he waffler around the subject like he does.

    Explain to us why Hitler was a “monster”.

    Well?

  3. MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 4:25 pm 

    Early Warning Signals for Critical Transitions (Scheffer 2009) NATURE

    Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate ,can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.

    https://www.scribd.com/document/377662710/Early-Warning-Signals-for-Critical-Transitions-Scheffer-2009

  4. GregT on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 4:28 pm 

    “nedernazi, your buddy greggie is not a holocaust denier. He also agrees Hitler was a monster albeit after he waffler around the subject like he does. You see greggie has no moral anchor. His morality is hate based and revolves around the ends of anti-Americanism so lying and distorting the truth is fine if it contributes to that end. This is the case until he starts to look bad then he will waffle to whatever makes him appear respectable.”

    More of your usual delusional accusations Davy. If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with unadulterated bullshit.

    I have come to expect nothing less from you buddy.

  5. MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 5:29 pm 

    HSBC Investor Alert “Man Battleships”

    https://imgur.com/a/AdEYswT

  6. makati1 on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 6:43 pm 

    Greg, is MM Davy or his clone or his cousin? How can two people who never met and live hundreds of miles apart be so messed up in the same areas of the mind? They are perfect examples of what is wrong with America today. Arrogant, uneducated, delusional, narrow minded exceptionalists.

    I laugh at their putdowns and consider the source. They must have had really messed up childhoods. but then, living in propaganda heaven has warped most Americans. Thanks be that I got out and can see the real world. they never will.

  7. makati1 on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 6:48 pm 

    “Is the U.S. Government Evil? You Tell Me”

    “This is a government that treats its citizens like faceless statistics and economic units to be bought, sold, bartered, traded, tracked, tortured, and eventually eliminated once they’ve outgrown their usefulness.

    This is a government that treats human beings like lab rats to be caged, branded, experimented upon, and then discarded and left to suffer from the after-effects.

    This is a government that repeatedly lies, cheats, steals, spies, kills, maims, enslaves, breaks the laws, overreaches its authority, and abuses its power at almost every turn.

    This is a government that wages wars for profit, jails its own people for profit, and then turns a blind eye and a deaf ear while its henchmen rape and kill and pillage.

    No, this is not a government that can be trusted to do what is right or moral or humane or honorable but instead seems to gravitate towards corruption, malevolence, misconduct, greed, cruelty, brutality and injustice.

    This is not a government you should trust with your life, your loved ones, your livelihood or your freedoms.

    This is the face of evil, disguised as a democracy, sold to the people as an institution that has their best interests at heart.”

    https://www.rutherford.org/publications_resources/john_whiteheads_commentary/is_the_u.s._government_evil_you_tell_me

    ““If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan

  8. MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 6:50 pm 

    Madkat

    You mad bro? Must suck to have your wife leave you after so many years. And now you are a miserable Incel! Don’t worry the system is going to collapse soon, and you then will starve or be killed.

    https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa

  9. MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 6:57 pm 

    Madkat

    Save me your self righteous bullshit about the US government. It must make you “Feel” like a good person to judge us over here. You are just another religious fanatic. If only we could stop the “Bad” USA..Than there would be world peace. You have watched to many movies. Typical for an uneducated idiot construction worker.

  10. MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 7:04 pm 

    Madkat

    Ridicule is the tribute paid to the genius by the mediocrities.

    -Oscar Wilde

  11. GregT on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 7:04 pm 

    “Save me your self righteous bullshit about the US government. It must make you “Feel” like a good person to judge us over here.”

    So now you’re the US government? Talking about delusional.

    If I may suggest, if the article that makati1 linked really has you that upset, why not complain to the author himself?

    JOHN W. WHITEHEAD

    Constitutional attorney and author John W. Whitehead is founder and president of The Rutherford Institute. His new book Battlefield America: The War on the American People (SelectBooks, 2015) is available online at http://www.amazon.com.

    Whitehead can be contacted at johnw@rutherford.org.

  12. GregT on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 7:06 pm 

    “Ridicule is the tribute paid to the genius by the mediocrities.
    -Oscar Wilde”

    You certainly do dish out far more than your fair share of ridicule MM. Just saying dude.

  13. makati1 on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 7:17 pm 

    Like I said. Davy and MM don’t have two functioning brain cells between them. LMAO

  14. Davy on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 7:23 pm 

    “You certainly do dish out far more than your fair share of ridicule MM. Just saying dude.”
    Stop it already greggie, hypocrite, what do you call your stalking and pricking episodes and your support of extremist? Your little quote certainly does not describe you or your pales here who are subpar intellectually. You guys are just rabid agendist and think you are special and smart.

  15. Davy on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 7:29 pm 

    “Greg, is MM Davy or his clone or his cousin?”
    Give it a rest 3rd world you are just showing how unimaginative you are. Show us something creative please. These things happen to old men going senile.

    “I laugh at their putdowns and consider the source. “
    Then why do you do it 3rd world. You put down most everyone but yourself and the few friends you have. You even put down your family. Appears to me you have a personality disorder. Is it a self-confidence issue seep inside for a failed life in the US? You have to try extra hard to show how angry and hateful you are at the US. Of course greggie and the Nazi love that talk.

  16. GregT on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 7:30 pm 

    The only person on this forum who I would consider to be an extremist is you Davy, and without a doubt, you aren’t even remotely close to being smart.

  17. Davy on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 7:36 pm 

    Greggie, why do you stalk and prick and support extremist like 3rd world and the Nazi? It is plain to see “dude” you are an extremist.

  18. makati1 on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 7:39 pm 

    Delusional Davy, I putdown you and MM for fun. Both of you are certifiably insane. You deserve to be knocked down at every opportunity, but I do not have that much time to waste on zeros.

    Think on this, if you can…

    “None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free.” ~ Goethe

  19. MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 7:44 pm 

    Greg

    That author is another far right paranoid loon. I bet he stays awake at night worrying about black helicopters are going to sent after him.

  20. MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 7:46 pm 

    Madkat

    I know we are all slaves to a tax farm as Greg calls it. We are all uneducated and you are such an independent thinker and use such sophisticated sources to argue your points.

  21. Davy on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 7:52 pm 

    If that is the case 3rd world, why do you run for cover when I get up in the morning. I think you can’t take the heat. Unless greggie is around to help you with your walker you are nowhere to be found.

  22. MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 7:53 pm 

    “[al-Quada] is on our side in Syria”–email from policy advisor to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (Feb 2012)

    https://wikileaks.org/clinton-emails/emailid/23225#efmAGIAHu

    Gotta get that Golden Heights oil and gas!

  23. MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 8:00 pm 

    And there you have it..The US government colluding with the people who caused 911..

    There is no bridge to far for the war profiteers!

  24. MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 8:17 pm 

    The 1973 so-called “oil embargo” which reduced oil supply to the USA by somewhere around 3% or 4%. It slammed the US economy, caused the largest stock market crash since the great depression, doubled gasoline prices, severely damaged US industry and caused a 55 MPH national speed limit which remained in effect for ten years. The government also put restrictions on how much gasoline you could purchase. There were fist fights and even a murders between the public at gas stations. Just wait until we experience a 10% or 20% drop in oil supplies. In a few years or sooner we certainly will. When it hits the economic and social damage will be catastrophic. The end of Western Civilization, from China to Europe, to the US, will not occur when oil runs out. The economic and social chaos will occur when supplies are merely reduced sufficiently.

    https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa

  25. Boat on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 8:20 pm 

    Clog

    Hitler declared war on the US. Germany unconditionally surrendered. That’s all you need to know.

  26. MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 8:25 pm 

    This is me when the oil shipments are cut off and the trucks stop running and Madkat and Greg realize they are totally outnumbered!

    http://i.imgur.com/7aMKHdp.gif

  27. GregT on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 8:27 pm 

    “If that is the case 3rd world, why do you run for cover when I get up in the morning.”

    Have you ever stopped to think that there is an 18 hour time difference Davy?

    You’re definitely not the sharpest tool in the shed buddy.

  28. Davy on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 8:27 pm 

    good one boat. The Nazi will have a cow. We will get a 3 part series on WW2 and the evil of ZOG.

  29. Davy on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 8:33 pm 

    We are 13 hours difference stupid. How sharp is your tool? Buddy, already.

  30. makati1 on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 8:39 pm 

    Greg, Davy thinks I live on the internet like he does. Not so. I am on and off, depending on what I am doing that day. It is a break from the prepping and other more important things. He and MM are entertainment, like the clowns at the circus between serious acts.

  31. GregT on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 8:40 pm 

    My mistake Davy. A typo. Never the less, makati1 isn’t running for cover from delusional Davy. By the sounds of things, he thoroughly enjoys getting you all upset.

  32. Davy on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 8:44 pm 

    I say you are on or off like a switch. You switch between dumb and dumber. Try saying something sometimes 3rd world. You are good at referencing your extremist agenda but rarely give us some of your own thinking. Greggie is even worse. He just stalks around and then jumps out like a house cat to prick.

  33. GregT on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 8:47 pm 

    “We will get a 3 part series on WW2 and the evil of ZOG.”

    Which you will never read, or even consider, because the truth would destroy your fragile ego and your false sense of identity.

  34. MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 8:48 pm 

    Here is Boat cruising in his pick up truck!

    https://i.imgur.com/WP7pLSK.gifv

  35. Davy on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 8:49 pm 

    sure greggie, would you and the Nazi please go start your own little WW2 and ZOG site so we can stay on topic here.

  36. GregT on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 8:57 pm 

    “sure greggie, would you and the Nazi please go start your own little WW2 and ZOG site so we can stay on topic here.”

    I was responding to your comment Davy:

    “The Nazi will have a cow. We will get a 3 part series on WW2 and the evil of ZOG.”

  37. GregT on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 9:09 pm 

    “Here is Boat cruising in his pick up truck!”

    Boat drives a Subaru MM, and he isn’t in his 20s.

  38. GregT on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 9:23 pm 

    And MM,

    Just an FYI. Guys tend to wise up a bit after the testosterone drops to more manageable levels. You’ll figure it all out eventually.

  39. MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 9:44 pm 

    The End of the Democratic Century

    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2018-04-16/end-democratic-century

  40. MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 9:49 pm 

    Greg

    Not true. The human IQ peaks around the age of 20 and goes into permanent decline. This is why older people become very confused and drive very slow. This is also why voters tend to vote more conservative when they get older.

    http://www.pnas.org/content/108/32/13281
    http://www.pnas.org/content/108/32/13029
    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v429/n6994/abs/nature02661.html

    Next time, before you argue something make sure you are educated in the topic you are arguing.

  41. GregT on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 9:56 pm 

    I got my private pilot’s licence when I was in my 40s MM. I didn’t start flying aerobatics until I was 50. My father got his PP licence when he was 68, and he still flies aerobatics today. He is now 86.

  42. GregT on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 9:58 pm 

    Sorry, my bad. I got my license when I was in my late 30s, and scored 100% on the exam.

  43. MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 10:18 pm 

    Greg

    Maybe you have some chimpanzee in your blood. Because their IQ’s stay the same their entire life… And Greg a licence is just a certificate of compliance. But good thing you are a pilot so you will know the sounds of those black helicopters coming to get you when the ZOG NWO kicks off!

  44. GregT on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 10:48 pm 

    MM,

    Judging from your comments here, without a doubt, you are not anywhere near as smart as you think that you are.

  45. GregT on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 11:13 pm 

    “And Greg a licence is just a certificate of compliance.”

    We aren’t talking about a post secondary education here MM. Non-compliance in this case, would most certainly lead to premature death.

  46. Anonymouse1 on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 11:33 pm 

    Not true, boatietard IS in his 20’s. He has an iQ somewhere between 20 and 30. Since being legally retarded in the uS is not a barrier to things like, say, gun ownership, or eligibility for some of the highest offices in the land, I suppose it is conceivable boatretard may have been given a drivers licence at some point.

  47. MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 11:49 pm 

    Greg

    It’s not greed that drives the world, but envy.

    -Warren Buffett

  48. MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Apr 2018 11:52 pm 

    Greg

    Truckers get licences as well. Do you think they are very bright? Based on your logic they would be.

  49. Cloggie on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 12:03 am 

    “Hitler declared war on the US. Germany unconditionally surrendered. That’s all you need to know.”

    America never officially declares war, it just shoots and sets other countries up for war. America, or its owners rather, declared war on Germany as of 1933:

    https://goo.gl/images/nZwqpG

    The Americans delivered large amounts of war materials to the British before Pearl Harbor and were actively hunting and shooting German vessels in the Atlantic:

    http://www.ihr.org/jhr/v04/v04p135_Weber.html

    “Much has already been written about Roosevelt’s campaign of deception and outright lies in getting the United States to intervene in the Second World War prior to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941. Roosevelt’s aid to Britain and the Soviet Union in violation of American neutrality and international law, his acts of war against Germany in the Atlantic in an effort to provoke a German declaration of war against the United States, his authorization of a vast “dirty tricks” campaign against U.S. citizens by British intelligence agents in violation of the Constitution, and his provocations and ultimatums against Japan which brought on the attack against Pearl Harbor.”

    But it is irrelevant what I write because our resident exceptionalists are immune for everything that counters official US propaganda.

    But their game is up. The whole world sees through the schemes and lies of Washington, the military is a paper tiger (no morale) and most important: Americans are about to go at each others throat:

    https://youtu.be/Va6MAwexpnE

    That is all you need to know.

    You already married an Italian woman, boat, so you can flee into European safety, like Davy hopes to do, when the “shtf”? Shouldn’t you hurry up? Do you realize you both will soon be “huddled masses” again, people without a country you can call your own, European under classes again?

    Boat and Davy, both members of a demographic that was unable to generate an elite strong enough to withstand the takeover of millimind’s tribe and as such they became the tools of kosher interests:

    https://goo.gl/images/rn24fb

    And they will be that tool again for a last time in WW3, a war of America against the rest of the world, probably ignited over Iran/ME, a war that will directly involve China and Russia and not Europe, like in 2003. And that war the US will loose, because the US can’t take large numbers of casualties. And behind the back of the US army, fighting at the other half of the world, the country without ethnic cohesion will begin to fall apart when the risk of an uprising will be seen as smaller than a certain death in the Eurasian meatgrinder.

    That is how the “Great Satan” will come to its end.

  50. Anonymouse1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 2:27 am 

    So what exactly, did you do for the jewish underground during WW2 cloggraham? Print leaflets? Cower in a sewer somewhere? Were you ever captured by the German army? If so, how did you avoid being shot on the spot? If you did get captured, what did you do? Bore them any would-be-captors to death, allowing you to make your escape? Something must have happened to you to make you think here in nearly 2020, that everyone (according to you) anyhow, actually cares about your fake persona’s endless obsession with that period of history.

    Well, ok, your fellow nazi fetishist, eceptionalturd has a fondness for the topic as well now, thanks, in no small part to you. Mission accomplished, right cloggen-zimmer? But that really only because he is quite mad, and has been for a long time. Its not because he actually knows what is going on around him in any real way. Buts it all one way though cloggen-fraud, even you believe he is a member of ‘1%’ class, with a hideaway just waiting for him ‘somewhere’ in northern Italy. Oh yea, and an Italian ‘wife’ as well.

    Do they pay you by the dumbasses you convince? Because right now, the score is about…two. Exceptionalturd of course is on yours(and greater israel’s side), and
    maybe boatietard. The village idiot. Keep it up and in a few more years, and you might add KenZ to the list.

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