While the climate policy world is littered with numbers, three of them have dominated recent discourse: 2, 1000, and 66.
At the 2015 U.N. climate summit in Paris, world leaders agreed to limit global warming below 2°C to avoid catastrophic impacts of human-caused climate change. The science consequently dictates that, for a 50% chance of staying below 2°C, around 1,000 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (or 300 billion tonnes of carbon) can be emitted between now and 2050, and close to zero thereafter. We’re currently emitting 36 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. However, the potential greenhouse gas emissions contained in known, extractable fossil fuel reserves are around three times higher than this carbon budget, meaning that 66% must be kept in the ground.
The debate du jour thus centers on which emissions reduction pathway is most optimal for staying below 2°C. The calculus of many policymakers, economists, fossil fuel companies, and indeed scientists, is that the most economical way to stay below 2°C is to delay most emissions reductions for decades to come, and then to play catch up by relying heavily on as-yet technically and economically unviable negative-emissions technologies. However, a crucial number has been neglected in this mainstream calculation: 6.1 million.
Each year, 6.1 million lives are lost prematurely due to air pollution. Though most acutely and visibly hampering megacities of the developing world, air pollution is a growing public health emergency that affects almost all of us in our daily lives, whether or not we are aware of it. The Health Effects Institute estimates that only 5% of the global population are lucky enough to live in areas with air pollution levels below safe guidelines. Though recent studies suggest there may in fact be no risk-free level of air pollution.
Why is this number relevant to climate policy? Because one common culprit is responsible for the majority of both climate change and air pollution: fuel combustion. Burning coal, oil, natural gas, and biomass – for everyday uses ranging from electricity, heating, cooking, to transportation – releases hundreds of gases and particles, some of which disrupt the climate system or are harmful to human health, or both. Climate change could also worsen air quality in the future.
Decades of research have revealed that air pollution is associated with a wide range of diseases and disorders, including asthma, cancer, heart disease, stroke, and premature birth. There is also emerging evidence that pollution from coal combustion and motor vehicles can cause development delays, reduced IQ, and autism in children. The societal and economic costs of air pollution are multifold. There are costs to the affected individuals, to their families and to society in terms of direct medical costs, costs to healthcare systems, productivity losses, and lower economic growth (not to mention costs resulting from damages to ecosystems).
Yet almost none of these costs stemming from our fossil fuel reliance are included in the majority of cost-benefit analyses of climate mitigation strategies. A recent study estimates that the health co-benefits from air pollution reductions would outweigh the mitigation costs of staying below 2°C by 140–250% globally. Historical evidence paints a similar picture. The EPA estimates that the U.S. Clean Air Amendments cost $65bn to implement, but will have yielded a benefit of almost $2tn by 2020 in avoided health costs.
Many public healthexpert groups have underscored the enormous opportunity for leaders worldwide to design policies and initiatives that will simultaneously tackle climate change and air pollution. Examples include replacing the most carbon-intensive and polluting sources such as coal and heavy-duty diesel with lower-emission or renewable alternatives, ending fossil fuel subsidies, redesigning urban spaces to make it easier and safer to commute by foot, bicycle, and public transportation, and transitioning to a more circular and sustainable economy. While the climatic mitigation effects of such measures are long-term and dispersed globally, the health benefits are immediate and local.
For too long, the enormous toll of disease and deaths from fossil fuel pollution has been neglected in climate change policies and underappreciated by the public. But public health data makes it clear that not all 2°C scenarios are created equal. The lives and well-being of hundreds of millions of us – especially our children – could be at stake. We would be remiss to ignore it.
Dr. Ploy Achakulwisut is a Postdoctoral Scientist at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health. She has a PhD in Atmospheric Science from Harvard University.
onlooker on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 11:14 am
We can’t cry over spilled milk now. We made our bed with FF, now we have to sleep on it
GregT on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 11:52 am
Yes Onlooker. It’s been 28*C here for the past couple of days, in April. Normal average temperatures for this time of the year would be half of that, or 14*C. Last year it was snowing here at the end of April.
Alice Friedemann on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 12:04 pm
It’s just incredible that we’re on the cusp of declining fossil fuels which will solve the greenhouse emissions problem, and 6.5 billion people will die since civilization from agriculture to construction to supply chains depends entirely on oil. The dieoff will accelerate the lowering of greenhouse gases since so few people will be around to emit them. Survivors won’t be able to get at much coal, we already went after the shallow, nearby, high quality, easy coal and the remaining coal is thousands of feet down, in arid areas without enough water to process it, and so on for the most part.
Go Speed Racer on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 12:06 pm
Think Globally, Act Locally.
The CO2 buildup is a global effect.
But to contribute to it, requires local
action. So have an old couch and tire
Fire, locally in your backyard.
Only you can take the initiative, and
together we can burn up all those old
couches, at the local level.
fmr-paultard on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 12:11 pm
gotard i’m on board with you. it took me a while to go with your way of thinking so i apologize. yes release the organic highly stable pollutants into the air. burn baby burn.
Anonymouse1 on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 12:11 pm
Forget fusion, its always been 20 years away. Sofa-2-Energy, is here today, and, like GSR says, its as close as a box of matches, some gaz-o-leen, and your backyard.
MASTERMIND on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 12:18 pm
Alice
I think the elites purposely pushed climate change as way to distract away from peak oil and upcoming collapse. I mean al gores movie came out the same year conventional oil production peaked. I mean we should have been skeptical of any kind of science the US government was pushing down our throats.
onlooker on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 1:14 pm
A study led by the University of Leeds has found that no country currently meets its citizens’ basic needs at a globally sustainable level of resource use.
https://www.leeds.ac.uk/news/article/41 … nets_means
Antius on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 4:23 pm
“Each year, 6.1 million lives are lost prematurely due to air pollution.”
Lets put that into perspective. 6.1million deaths per year. Every 3 years, fossil fuel pollution kills as many people as died in WW1.
Radiation from Chernobyl may have caused up to 4000 premature deaths. So fossil fuel pollution kills over 1000 times as many people each year as may have been killed in the worst nuclear accident in history. For all the apocalyptic nonsense and scaremongering about Fukushima, if the authorities had done nothing to evacuate people, then radiation over the next 30 years, would have caused the same consequences as a few days of air pollution in Tokyo. I’m not sure if that tells us that nuclear power is really benign, or that fossil fuels are so horribly bad. I think more the first.
As bad as fossil fuels are to our collective health, we still come out ahead by using them in terms of quality of life, longevity and living standards. But the health consequences are bad and the economic benefits are fading as depletion pushes up prices. It is time to stop worrying about radiation, which is really a non issue. We need to mass produce nuclear reactors.
GregT on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 4:40 pm
Temperature update:
It’s currently 31ºC here. 17ºC above normal for this time of the year. Heat of the mid-summer, pre-spring.
dave thompson on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 6:33 pm
Not to worry as long as you are over 70 you will have lived your life well in an age of abundance.
dave thompson on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 6:44 pm
OH yea and Speed has the right idea I just took it a step further by building an urban incinerator/boiler/electrical generator in my back yard.
As long as the local fools keep tossing out the valuable fuels of old sofas,recliners,tires,plastic lawn furniture and unwanted kids toys I have an endless supply of clean green energy to run my house and fleet of golf carts for making my neighborhood rounds on pick up days.
Ain’t life great not only am I saving landfill space but I am getting every joule of heat value out of all that pumped hydrocarbon plastic polymer waste.
MASTERMIND on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 6:49 pm
Clogg
Government debt as % of GDP in Europe by country
https://i.redd.it/96qxnizi2bu01.png
Ouch..Europe is headed for bankruptcy!
Anonymouse1 on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 7:05 pm
Your link 404’d onlooker. Fyi
GregT on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 7:24 pm
Look at that big green area on the right MM @ 17.4%. Somebody is obviously doing something right.
Cloggie’s Netherlands are at 56.7%, and makati’s Ps 34.6%. Those two guys might be on to something after all.
Looks like Davy made a piss poor choice for his bugout location though, Italy’s debt to GDP is even higher than the US, which is on par with Mozambique and the Republic of Congo.
http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGXWDG_NGDP@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
Davy on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 7:30 pm
Lookie greggie, using his fake financial training to decipher his idea of what is and isn’t. Do you armature economist understand that there is much more to debt than these graphs indicate? You guys are the typical cherry pickers looking for numbers that look good for your agenda.
makati1 on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 7:34 pm
LOL Davy had to come on and prove his immaturity and ignorance. Still waving that bloody flag as the USS DEBT sinks beneath the waves. Gurgle! Gurgle!
Anonymouse1 on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 7:38 pm
Great SYNAPSIS of all those ‘armature’ economists we got running around here @ PO.com’s open comments area exceptionalturd. Damn good thing we have you here to help to cut through all the nonsense and bring clarity, in form of your expert SYNPASISsss..SYNAPese…sss…
GregT on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 7:45 pm
“Lookie greggie, using his fake financial training to decipher his idea of what is and isn’t.”
My financial training and experience spans 3 decades Davy. I am very well aware of what I am talking about, and so is the IMF.
Davy on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 7:49 pm
Widdle weasel, cell phone do these things. Greggie hates that I have a cell phone. I guess because they don’t have reception in Salmon Arm. Let him know he will get a hard one.
makati1 on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 7:50 pm
Davy ass…umes that he knows everything and we know nothing when it is just the opposite.
makati1 on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 8:02 pm
Stocks, farms, homes, cars, gold, etc is worth what someone will pay for it when you want/have to sell. It could be pennies on the dollar or even zero. THAT is economics in its basic form.
Any debt is a chain around your neck. That is what the masters want, debt slaves. That too is basic economics in the Us especially.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
US National Debt:
Per citizen: $64,500+
Per taxpayer: $174,000+
Total government debt per citizen = $214,000+
When you are born, you already owe $214,000+.
Yep! Americans are “Free”! LMAO
Davy on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 8:03 pm
Stop the childish rhetoric and name calling 3rd world. Greggie hates that. I though you wanted more from him.
Davy on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 8:06 pm
3rd world, we have something. Look at what the P’s have. Right, not much. My little State has a similiar GDP with 16 times less people. Ooopsp
makati1 on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 8:14 pm
Name calling Davy? You mean things like “weasel”, “3rd world”, etc? Hypocrite!
GregT on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 8:16 pm
“Greggie hates that I have a cell phone. I guess because they don’t have reception in Salmon Arm.”
Hate is a useless human emotional response Davy. I actually feel sorry for you that you have a cell phone. It isn’t helping you with your issues, it’s making them worse.
As I have pointed out to you numerous times before, I don’t live anywhere near Salmon Arm, but don’t let that stop you from making up more of your usual delusions.
makati1 on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 8:17 pm
Your little state has a high percentage of uneducated, narrow minded, inbred, drug addict bigots Davy, Nothing to brag about. You are a typical Missourian. Again, nothing to brag about.
Davy on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 8:18 pm
3rd world, those are not in the same class as “ass”. Besides you are such a dork when you say ass.
Davy on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 8:22 pm
Hate is your middle name greggie. That is why you stalk and prick constantly.
makati1 on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 8:23 pm
Hmmm. You were bright enough to pick up on that! I’m impressed! NOT! You are still a hypocrite, Davy. Want me to go back and enumerate all of the many names you have called me and others here. The list would be very, very long. Longer than your drugged up memory. You need serious professional help Davy.
Davy on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 8:26 pm
3rd world if that is the case, geez, what does that make your p’s out to be. Lol.
Davy on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 8:28 pm
3rd world, give it a rest. Childish rhetoric and name calling just shows how delusional you are.
makati1 on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 8:47 pm
Mirror, Davy. Mirror. Typical American hypocrite.
Child murderer enabler. Feels good to go to bed knowing your country killed a few more children and babies that day in some small country you could not even find on an unmarked map? In your name, of course. Too bad you are too much of a coward to serve your country in those places.
BTW: The Ps is doing quite well, thank you. GDP increases of 6% plus for years while the Us has to lie to get even 2%. The Ps is not a nuclear target, you are. The Ps has no nuke plants to worry about. The Us has 100+ old ones that are breaking down as we type. Not to mention that the culture here is 100% better than what the Us calls ‘culture’. I’m not trapped. You are.
MASTERMIND on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 9:01 pm
Madkat
You lived here for nearly 60 years and didn’t do shit to stop the war monster. You even joined along and marched and murdered! You are a fake and fool!
makati1 on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 9:14 pm
Mm, in those 60+ years, the Us was not as lambently aggressive and ignoring international laws/treatises. The Prez had to get Congress’ approval to bomb someone or declare war. Not now. You have a dictator, not a president.
You have no personal experience to base your assertion on. I do, as you admit above. You only have the propaganda you have been fed since birth and the scholastic brainwashing you so willingly paid for. You live behind the US MSM Iron Curtain and are fed bullshit 24/7/365. Take some of your “vacation” and travel the world. Get out of the ‘frog pot’ while you still can. I did and it is freedom beyond your imagination.
GregT on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 10:06 pm
“Hate is your middle name greggie. That is why you stalk and prick constantly.”
Actually Davy, Greg is my middle name. My first name is David. But keep making stuff up if it makes you feel more emotionally secure.
GregT on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 10:08 pm
MM,
“You lived here for nearly 60 years and didn’t do shit to stop the war monster.”
And you’ve lived there for 30. What have you done to stop the war monster?
MASTERMIND on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 10:18 pm
Greg
I have never voted in my entire life. Which is really a vote of no confidence. Governments around the world judge how much confidence their public has in them by how their voter turnouts are. My point isn’t that Madkat did nothing for his entire life. And now he leaves and shacks his fist on a soap box. Its absurd. And he worked for the military and helped the war machine before. He is a total idiot. Just because he doesn’t live here anymore he thinks he has the right to judge us. He just wants the US to collapse to get petty revenge on his ex wife because she dumped his ass. If you lived and worked your whole life somewhere and moved half way around the world. You would care less what the hell that country did.. Its obvious he wants revenge on someone here. And he tries to justify it with false narratives about the war industry.
makati1 on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 10:27 pm
WOW! Mm, you protest by not protesting! What a crock of bullshit. I was raising a family for half of my life then. You are single and free to protest anywhere, anytime. I wasn’t.
So, what are YOU going to do to try to save YOUR future from life as a 3rd world serf to your masters? Sit and type childish putdowns about people you do not know and never will. Get off your ass and out into the street. Use your ‘vacation’ to do some good. Nah! Too comfortable in Mom’s basement. LMAO
GregT on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 10:33 pm
“He just wants the US to collapse to get petty revenge on his ex wife because she dumped his ass.”
He wants the empire to collapse MM, in order to stop the war monster. Do you have a better solution?
GregT on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 10:49 pm
“Governments around the world judge how much confidence their public has in them by how their voter turnouts are.”
Interesting take MM. I would posit that governments around the world could care less about public confidence. The thing that matters the most to politicians is getting elected, period.
MASTERMIND on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 10:54 pm
Greg
You should check out this book coming out next month. The author is an expert on this stuff.
Collusion: How Central Bankers Rigged the World
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1568585624/ref=nosim/?tag=tomdispatch-20http://www.amazon.com/dp/1568585624/ref=nosim/
MASTERMIND on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 11:20 pm
Madkat
What is protesting going to achieve really? The elites could care less about people doing that. Now rioting, when you start destroying their businesses, then they start giving a shit.
Madkat you helped build this monster. And now you want my generation to destroy it. Typical entitled boomer. Just pass the tab to your children…And leave the restaurant.
makati1 on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 11:51 pm
“What is protesting going to achieve really?”
1776.
makati1 on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 11:53 pm
Mm,I’m pre-boomer, but you are not educated enough to remember that. Boomers started in 1946. Do the math, if you can. Hint: 2018 minus 74 = ___________?
GregT on Thu, 26th Apr 2018 11:57 pm
“What is protesting going to achieve really? The elites could care less about people doing that. Now rioting, when you start destroying their businesses, then they start giving a shit.”
The people that are controlling the situation don’t own businesses MM. You’re barking up the wrong tree.
“Madkat you helped build this monster. And now you want my generation to destroy it.”
Makati1 had no input into the building of ‘this monster’. It was built back in 1913, long before he was born. Your generation has no hope in hell of destroying it either MM. The only way now is for the empire to collapse, which it is going to do eventually, either with a whimper, or a series of extremely bright flashes.
GregT on Fri, 27th Apr 2018 12:00 am
“You should check out this book coming out next month. The author is an expert on this stuff.”
I seriously doubt that the author has written about anything that I don’t already understand MM.
GregT on Fri, 27th Apr 2018 12:08 am
And MM,
Check it out for yourself, I’m sure that you’ll find history to be quite different from what they taught you in school.
GregT on Fri, 27th Apr 2018 12:14 am
“1776.”
Most Americans today have no idea as to what exactly it was that America gained independence from makati1, or how that same independence was lost in 1913.
MASTERMIND on Fri, 27th Apr 2018 12:14 am
Greg
Madkat did help build the monster. It started back in the early 20th century. But it increased during his time with his blood, sweat and tears.
Its obvious they want Russia destroyed so they can take their oil and gas. I mean what the hell else does Russia have of any value? We got Putin surrounded though this time. And I bet its just a matter of time before he is hit with a nuclear first strike. And it will be the most shocking attack in all of history. Just like they pulled off the mother of all false flags on 911. They will pull off the mother of all first strikes this time. The only chance I see of this being avoided is if the deep state is just trying to bluff Putin and maybe scare him away and out of the middle east. By making it appear that we are going to attack him. But I doubt it. The US doesn’t bluff. They mean business and will stop at nothing. If they can kill 3k of their own people. Than a few million Russians wont mean shit.