While the climate policy world is littered with numbers, three of them have dominated recent discourse: 2, 1000, and 66.
At the 2015 U.N. climate summit in Paris, world leaders agreed to limit global warming below 2°C to avoid catastrophic impacts of human-caused climate change. The science consequently dictates that, for a 50% chance of staying below 2°C, around 1,000 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (or 300 billion tonnes of carbon) can be emitted between now and 2050, and close to zero thereafter. We’re currently emitting 36 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. However, the potential greenhouse gas emissions contained in known, extractable fossil fuel reserves are around three times higher than this carbon budget, meaning that 66% must be kept in the ground.
The debate du jour thus centers on which emissions reduction pathway is most optimal for staying below 2°C. The calculus of many policymakers, economists, fossil fuel companies, and indeed scientists, is that the most economical way to stay below 2°C is to delay most emissions reductions for decades to come, and then to play catch up by relying heavily on as-yet technically and economically unviable negative-emissions technologies. However, a crucial number has been neglected in this mainstream calculation: 6.1 million.
Each year, 6.1 million lives are lost prematurely due to air pollution. Though most acutely and visibly hampering megacities of the developing world, air pollution is a growing public health emergency that affects almost all of us in our daily lives, whether or not we are aware of it. The Health Effects Institute estimates that only 5% of the global population are lucky enough to live in areas with air pollution levels below safe guidelines. Though recent studies suggest there may in fact be no risk-free level of air pollution.
Why is this number relevant to climate policy? Because one common culprit is responsible for the majority of both climate change and air pollution: fuel combustion. Burning coal, oil, natural gas, and biomass – for everyday uses ranging from electricity, heating, cooking, to transportation – releases hundreds of gases and particles, some of which disrupt the climate system or are harmful to human health, or both. Climate change could also worsen air quality in the future.
Decades of research have revealed that air pollution is associated with a wide range of diseases and disorders, including asthma, cancer, heart disease, stroke, and premature birth. There is also emerging evidence that pollution from coal combustion and motor vehicles can cause development delays, reduced IQ, and autism in children. The societal and economic costs of air pollution are multifold. There are costs to the affected individuals, to their families and to society in terms of direct medical costs, costs to healthcare systems, productivity losses, and lower economic growth (not to mention costs resulting from damages to ecosystems).
Yet almost none of these costs stemming from our fossil fuel reliance are included in the majority of cost-benefit analyses of climate mitigation strategies. A recent study estimates that the health co-benefits from air pollution reductions would outweigh the mitigation costs of staying below 2°C by 140–250% globally. Historical evidence paints a similar picture. The EPA estimates that the U.S. Clean Air Amendments cost $65bn to implement, but will have yielded a benefit of almost $2tn by 2020 in avoided health costs.
Many public healthexpert groups have underscored the enormous opportunity for leaders worldwide to design policies and initiatives that will simultaneously tackle climate change and air pollution. Examples include replacing the most carbon-intensive and polluting sources such as coal and heavy-duty diesel with lower-emission or renewable alternatives, ending fossil fuel subsidies, redesigning urban spaces to make it easier and safer to commute by foot, bicycle, and public transportation, and transitioning to a more circular and sustainable economy. While the climatic mitigation effects of such measures are long-term and dispersed globally, the health benefits are immediate and local.
For too long, the enormous toll of disease and deaths from fossil fuel pollution has been neglected in climate change policies and underappreciated by the public. But public health data makes it clear that not all 2°C scenarios are created equal. The lives and well-being of hundreds of millions of us – especially our children – could be at stake. We would be remiss to ignore it.
Dr. Ploy Achakulwisut is a Postdoctoral Scientist at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health. She has a PhD in Atmospheric Science from Harvard University.
Cloggie on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 3:49 am
So what exactly, did you do for the jewish underground during WW2 cloggraham?
I followed the strategy as advised by my rabbi and avoided being born in the first place during WW2. Wicket strategy if there ever was one, but us Jews are smart like hell.
#NeverArgueWithFools
Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 4:43 am
widdle weasel, wow, so much anger and resentment and so little to say. What a loser. Neder is despicable but at least he contributes good info on renewables. Boat is good with the oil numbers. Remember parading you understanding of Canadian Tar sands and I gave you an attitude adjustment? What a dumbshit. I give credit where it is due and vice versa. You really give “ZERO” contribution because your Jew baiting and anti-Americanism is just a disguised emotional agenda. You try to be cute but end up looking goofy. Your name calling reminds me of a dork who is obtuse with Asperger. Yea, you are on the high end of the spectrum but with a low cleverness. OH, you think you are clever but this is not the case. This means you are smart but stupid. You can’t utilize properly what you have so you end up looking ridiculous.
makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 5:04 am
Americans started both WW1 and WW2 and then came in at the end of each to claim they won it all by themselves. Typical arrogant American propaganda.
Then there was the Korean war that never ended because the Us fled. Then there was the Vietnam war where, again, the Americans fled with their tails between their legs, Since then, they have not even come close to winning anything. Note: Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc.
Japan was forced into a war with America and then the only way the Americans could “win” was two nukes. Keep that in mind Americans. Now the other two super powers also have nukes and will use them if attacked. 3AM flash over a city near you? We shall see.
Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 5:05 am
“Sorry, my bad. I got my license when I was in my late 30s, and scored 100% on the exam.”
Too bad this example of smarts is not reflected in your comments. What is reflected is your narcissistic tendencies and to be self-righteous and self-advancing. You like to brag about yourself just like your buddy 3rd world. No wonder you like each other so much. You both think you are so special. Yea, and throw in the neder too. He thinks he is special. If you are so special at least here on this forum say something special and contribute. Don’t hog the board with your agenda and dirty it with the stalking and pricking.
makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 5:06 am
Not true, boatietard IS in his 20’s. He has an iQ somewhere between 20 and 30.”
Hahahahaha! Thanks for the chuckle, Anon.
Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 5:14 am
“Americans started both WW1 and WW2 and then came in at the end of each to claim they won it all by themselves. Typical arrogant American propaganda.”
BS, 3rd world. WW1&2 were started for a variety of reasons. This is just more examples of your binary narrow minded agenda. You are a fraud
“Then there was the Korean war that never ended because the Us fled. Then there was the Vietnam war where, again, the Americans fled with their tails between their legs, Since then, they have not even come close to winning anything. Note: Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc.”
More nonsense, the US never lost a major engagement in Vietnam. Korea is what it is today. Look at the North who was supported by Russia and China, lol. We showed the world we could conquer a huge army in Iraq. We cleared out the Taliban in Afghanistan. The part that as lost was the political parts here and there. They were wars that should not have been fought I agree but quit you binary crude 3rd world saying these were military defeats. Tell us some more how missiles win wars and the 10MIL men under arms on the Korean peninsula. OH, yea, tell us about how come a NUK war has to be made in the cover of darkness….double lol. You are just plain stupid on military matters.
“Japan was forced into a war with America and then the only way the Americans could “win” was two nukes. Keep that in mind Americans. “
BS, 3rd world you are so stupid on history.
“3AM flash over a city near you? We shall see.”
Hot damn, there it is the 3am flash again. LMFAO stupid old man
Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 5:18 am
“Not true, boatietard IS in his 20’s. He has an iQ somewhere between 20 and 30.”Hahahahaha! Thanks for the chuckle, Anon.”
Boat blows the both of you out of the water on oil matters. That is clear. He is in his 50’s and sounds like at least materially successful unlike you 3rd world who lives in a 3rd world piss hole. Funny how you and your buddy widdle weasel like each other. It is no wonder because you both are dorks and ridiculous. You both have a horribly compromised personal agenda’s that cloud everything you say with inconsistencies and distortions. FRAUD
makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 5:57 am
Resorting to your 3rd grade personality, Davy? You only know the propaganda bullshit taught to you before you flunked out in the 4th grade. I suggest that you get an education and some real history before you open you big mouth and stick both feet in it…again. Speaking out of your ass doesn’t impress people.
makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:02 am
Hahahahaha..! Davy, please explain why the Us troops were hustled out of Nam’ by helicopter while being shot at when they were getting into helicopters on the Us Embassy roof? Tail between their legs, not matter what you say.
BTW: I resisted the empire by joining the PA Militia (National Guard) instead of supporting the Us war of choice on the Vietnamese. Which, the Us did lose to a bunch of rice farmers.
Cloggie on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:19 am
“Americans started both WW1 and WW2 and then came in at the end of each to claim they won it all by themselves. Typical arrogant American propaganda.”
Let me come to the rescue of the Americans for a change. Americans did NOT start WW1, but did end it, to the immense damage of Germany.
World wars never happen out of the blue but are the result of years of preparation.
WW1 – the idea was born in 1891 in London. Britain was at the zenith of its power but had come to the conclusion that sooner or later it would be eclipsed by a unified Germany. Next it overcame 1000 years of hostility with France…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entente_Cordiale#/media/File:Germany_GB_France.gif
(British cartoon from Punch)
… and later added Russia to the Germany-surrounding alliance. The opportunity came in 1914 (Sarajevo assassination).
WW2 – the idea was born in 1933 when for the first time in US history a certain tribe dominated the new Roosevelt government. The first thing they did was set up diplomatic relations with the largest human slaughterhouse in history the USSR (also run by the same tribe). Next the tribe began to financially support the half-American half-British politician Churchill, who happened to be broke. Assignment: bring Britain into war with Germany.
WW3 – currently nobody is planning for WW3 (as far as I know, but nobody tells me anything.lol). With nukes around everybody would lose. However the new sport is regime change in the land of your opponent: Kosovo, Iraq, Libya, Syria (failed), Ukraine are the latest examples. They attempted regime change in Russia, via NGOs and sanctions, but nothing works, as Putin is relatively safe in his SCO alliance with China and India. WW3 could still happen if a local conflict escalates. Iran and South China Sea have the potential for such an escalation.
Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:23 am
“I suggest that you get an education and some real history before you open you big mouth and stick both feet in it…again. Speaking out of your ass doesn’t impress people.”
Translation: You need to believe the lies the nedernazi and I spread here with our personal agenda of hate and self-advancement.
Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:23 am
“Hahahahaha..! Davy, please explain why the Us troops were hustled out of Nam’ by helicopter while being shot at when they were getting into helicopters on the Us Embassy roof? Tail between their legs, not matter what you say.”
Stupid, didn’t you study history? The US pulled out of Vietnam slowly with its Vietnamization of the war but the Chinese and Russians maintained support for the North. The North had no interest in peace. In this ending the US lost its will to fight and destroy. We should never have gone in there but what is certain we kicked ass and took names and at a great cost. So give this a balance view stupid.
“BTW: I resisted the empire by joining the PA Militia (National Guard) instead of supporting the Us war of choice on the Vietnamese.”
Figures you would take the pussy way out you are such a loser
Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:25 am
Geeze, now we got the WW2 wizard started again. Nedernazi please start a WW2 blog and get the hell off this forum and or stay on topic you loser.
makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:31 am
Davy, who died and made you boss? LOL
Cloggie on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:31 am
You think you have been “on topic” lately, anywhere, meathead?
http://barfblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Meathead.jpg
Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:34 am
translation: two old men whining. nedernazi, do you have a upload for that..lol the losers
makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:36 am
Davy, have YOU served in ANY military capacity?
The US ran from Nam’ as fast as they could get the means to escape. Do some real research outside Us sources and come back with some real facts to rebut my assertion, if you can find any.
makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:41 am
Cloggie, The US came in AFTER all of Europe was decimated. That is what TPTB wanted. Perhaps they helped win, but they could have been there at least a year sooner. It was not until the Germans tried to get the Mexicans to invade the Us and distract the Americans did the US actually get involved. The famouse “Zimmerman telegram”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimmermann_Telegram
False flag? Who knows?
Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:51 am
“Davy, have YOU served in ANY military capacity?”
Yea, google the board for details
Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:52 am
“Cloggie, The US came in AFTER all of Europe was decimated. That is what TPTB wanted.”
No, that is what your agenda must present so the puzzle pieces fit together for your lies
Cloggie on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:54 am
The Lusitania and Zimmerman Telegram were merely pretexts.
The real decisive factor for American Jews bringing in their Americans was because of the Balfour deal they had made with the British government: “we bring America into the war on the side of the British if the British government gives us Jews Palestine to create Israel in the near future”.
And that is what happened. All at the terrible cost of Germany that had done nothing wrong to America but was thrown into the Versailles abyss regardless.
makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:57 am
why don’t you mention it in your rebuttal Davy. You have no proof, that’s why. You can say anything online. I can tell you all about my 11 military years in the detail only someone who has experienced it would know. You NEVER served.
BTW: I don’t need any “translation”. I write in perfectly plain English exactly what I am saying and what I mean. YOU try to twist it to suit your feeble mental needs. Just like your sick country, America.
Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:59 am
It is always “nothing” wrong with you nedernazi. Please take your off topics off forum.
Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:04 am
Google it brat, I get tired of telling you sluts. Your 11 years in the military just warped you and you definite don’t know shit about military matters. If you even ever served. I have caught you in multiple inconsistencies. These things happen to old men when senility starts.
3rd world, my translations have nothing to do with English but everything to do with your attitude
Cloggie on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:07 am
It is always “nothing” wrong with you nedernazi. Please take your off topics off forum.
Yes, my unchallenged “air supremacy” in all things history bothers you a lot, eh.
Poor meathead, no supersonic missiles in his arsenal. Only bow and arrow, borrowed from Chief Seattle. That ain’t going to cut it.lol
Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:43 am
Translation: Davy always pisses on my parade. When you are a fake and your message a fraud these thing happen Nazi.
Cloggie on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:58 am
“Translation: Davy always pisses on my parade.“
I see that you not only suck at history, but languages as well.
Stick to your wheel barrow, buster.
Anonymouse1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 1:52 pm
Exceptionlturd, have you added serf-soldier for the corporate war-states of amerika to your ‘resume’ now as as well? What was your mission, peeling potatoes and cleaning latrines? Is there anything you haven’t done? Well, I can think of one thing you haven’t done yet, namely, seek qualified mental health-care. It will go a lot smoother if you are under supervised care and medication, when you learn few, if any of the self-aggrandizing claims you make, have made about yourself here on a regular basis, have no grounding in reality.
You should add, “under-supervised care” to your resume, and soon.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 2:02 pm
Scientific American: Apocalypse Soon: Has Civilization Passed the Environmental Point of No Return?
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/apocalypse-soon-has-civilization-passed-the-environmental-point-of-no-return/
Inside the new economic science of capitalism’s slow-burn energy collapse (Ahmed, 2017)
https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/the-new-economic-science-of-capitalisms-slow-burn-energy-collapse-d07344fab6be
Peer Reviewed Study: Society Could Collapse In A Decade, Predicts Historian (Turchin, 2010)
https://www.nature.com/articles/463608a
NASA Peer Reviewed Study: Industrial Civilization is Headed for Irreversible Collapse (Motesharrei, 2014)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800914000615
The Royal Society: Peer Reviewed Study, Now for the First Time A Global Collapse Appears Likely (Ehrlich, 2013)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3574335/
Peer Reviewed Study: Limits to Growth was Right. Research Shows We’re Nearing Global Collapse (Turner, 2014)
http://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/sites/default/files/docs/MSSI-ResearchPaper-4_Turner_2014.pdf
Peer Reviewed Study: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: Global Systemic Collapse (Korowicz, 2012)
http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Trade-Off1.pdf
German Military (leaked) Peak Oil study: oil is used in the production of 95% of all industrial goods, so a shortage of oil would collapse the world economy & world governments
http://www.energybulletin.net/sites/default/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf
onlooker on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 4:10 pm
MM, that Scientific American article is spot on. The Limits to Growth modeling back in the 70’s was a very scientic unbiased study that sought not necessarily to predict what was going to happen but to input as much relevant data as possible using difference variable data to map out possible future scenarios. Well almost 50 years later we are tracking about as bad as possible. Meaning for you hopelessly deluded optimists. We are on the verge of total collapse as the Biosphere is being wrecked and our enormous population is busily finishing the final touches on the total demise of our species because ultimately we depend on the Earth.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 4:40 pm
Onlooker
Yes. Global civilization is coming down hard within the next decade! Just try to enjoy your final years and do whatever makes you happy!
makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:15 pm
onlooker, I agree that we are killing the earth’s ecosystem. It will probably last for our lifetime and maybe a bit longer. Anyone born today will probably not survive to my 74 years. I do not see anyone alive on New Years 2100. It will not be the end of life on the planet, but it will e radically different.