It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
greman yellow on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 3:07 pm
Just to give you an idea of the capacity of the crane. A semi trailer truck weight 25000 lbs or 11.5 metric tonnes. This below weight 12 tonnes. The crane is strong enough to handle that kind of load. It is a big fucking crane.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJE-146dpOA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWTCujhAn6w
serial killer on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 3:59 pm
Just to give an idea of the capacity of the crane. A Backhoe loader weight between 6 to 11 tonnes, the crane can handle 20 tonnes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qQ2POgGQPw
https://measuringly.com/how-much-does-backhoe-weigh/
jean latulipe on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 4:30 pm
What will happen if we are successful at collapsing earth reality by killing the trees. What would happen? Are we leaving our flesh bodies or doors to other worlds will open. If doors to other world open, you will need a way to survey theses new worlds. We don’t know what will happen if we collapse earth reality.
fjuny ones on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 5:34 pm
This one is funny.
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/72706
deanil pilon on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 5:41 pm
Look at the retards in wheels chair. This is so fucking funny. Look at them shaking their arms.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUVV0mE_6Nc
hekue marcilline on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 7:24 pm
Few people understand that Québec is currently setup as an independent nations. If federal government was to collapse, the effects on the province of Québec would be minimale because Québec has the same administrative structure as the federal government, except for the currency, army, custom, poste canada and coast guard.
This is why I don’t mind collapsing the federal government. Video below explain that. This is part of a long term plan to kill the traitors inside North America borders.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fn_qPIiBOW8
Elaine denis on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 7:49 pm
Notice that the money needed to create Hydro-Québec came from the US bankers, not the Canadian bankers. Listen to the video below. US did participate in some small ways at the creation of Québec.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fn_qPIiBOW8
jean regis on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 8:03 pm
Notice that Rene Levesque talk about using the US currency instead of the Canadian currency. There two military school in Canada, one in Québec and one somewhere else in Canada. The bank of Canada will be put under the authority of Québec so is the Canadian military. I know this is highly theorical and lot of obstacles can happen.
regit trudelle on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 8:05 pm
You can always come to me and identify yourself. That would avoid a lot of pain in the futur.
selene ulysee on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 8:13 pm
If you don’t come to identify yourself and the medical establishment refuses to make a press conference about why people neck got longer, we will have no other option then using violence.
Come and identify yourself before things turn really bad.
denail xena on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 8:31 pm
I forgot about this one also.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3D_YYk7n4A4
betraine selene on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 9:03 pm
Ils sont venus on Canada pour couper le bois.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0RQzlb7zkU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJcTihdql4A
nadkdie bertand on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 9:22 pm
Notice that the video start with people working by hands only and finishes with people using mechanized equipment.
They want us to believe that the theory of the evolution is real. So they build a narrative similar to the theory of the evolution when they make historial document about cutting woods. It start with manual labor and evolve (theory of evolution) into mechanized labor.
They don’t want to tell us that we are slave.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0RQzlb7zkU
xena yellow on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 9:24 pm
Wrong video link. Here is the right link for my comment above.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJcTihdql4A
jaime presley on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 9:30 pm
There is probably multiples worlds outside of planet earth but the doors are hidden so we cannot leave. Maybe I will be able to see the doors eventually with my improved vision.
xena regis on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 9:44 pm
This is why I am saying, either you identify yourself, or else we will use violence.
personal whore on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 11:54 pm
They give me some invisible dope here and there. It is a fucking good dope they have. It feels like you are drunk but you did not drink anything. I think it is to decrease physical pain when I receive my body update. It a really good dope they have. C’est de la good shit qu’il ont. Je suis completement gelé. I have some personal privileges not available to the regulator people. I also have a personal invisible doctor. I alse have a personal whore that give me erection and orgasm. I bet you cock suckers did not know that.
ulysee welling on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 11:59 pm
Ils ont de la criss de bonne dope. C’est de la dope de qualité.
wellin wllow on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 12:01 am
I have sex with a invisible whore. She does sexual edging. She is not so bad. I trained her well. She needs more anal training but she is working on it.
zero neo on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 12:06 am
You guys know what sexual edging is. it is giving sexual pleasure without orgasms. Goggle BDSM sexual edging.
zero hello on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 12:19 am
You see I am a chosen one. All of you are just fucking losers.
zwe zero on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 12:25 am
J’aurais probablement pas du écrire ca, mais, j’étais complement gelé.
aline pierre on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 12:33 am
I asked them if they were planning to use me as a procreator. They did not answer me. I had to ask.
Claude poirier on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 12:42 am
I told them that I am too fat and not flexible enough to have sex. How can I be a good procreator. They did not answer me. Bastards
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tf3hUFV8mac
quran haligim on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 12:48 am
You will have to work harder if you want to give me erection whore. I have a low sexual appetite.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxNqNdxJ-28
xeroe tampaz on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 12:51 am
what is this. a video for pedophile.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NAUC21x4CQ
lolo utra on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 12:57 am
what the fuck is going on with my youtube page.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxXV4tZXwWc
Youtube is now called pedophile heaven
regis trambleay on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 1:02 am
Youtube is now specialized in pedophilia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pU7QOCU0C7U
quran yyoutub e on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 1:12 am
Youtube has an hidden section dedicated at pleasing pedophiles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hr_zIfWSgLI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElCgmeYf78c
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReJhW_KgrAI
zero helene on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 1:29 am
this one. She looks like an alien.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3da4f_z3rk
I will stop here with the links.
denis tadresse on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 8:55 am
Two Tickets to Paradise (Eddie Money)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWMIBK2hX4w
Meaning the chosen ones will leave earth and never come back. There is a lot of songs with bizarre title.
flrorenc paris on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 9:00 am
Another bizarre title: Flirtin’ with Disaster (Molly Hatchet)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IF3Tn9oZuOo
Meaning earth is flirting with disaster with globalism and maritime container shipping.
Nadine lagrouche on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 9:10 am
Earth is flirting with disaster:
-feminism
-sexual castration of man
-Jews
-mass migration
-UN
-WEF
-Europe, UK and Jews wishing to control the world
-low IQ population
-corruption
-political system
-globalism
-maximins profit as a way to manage earth
-rape laws
-divorce in favor of women
-communism
-worshipping of authority figure
-natural resources depletion
-media propagandizing the population
-university social sciences made to modify people way of thinking
Indeed earth is flirting with disaster
sask lemonae on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 9:32 am
Saskatchewan is a shit hole in the middle of nowhere with a weak economy and yet it has a beautiful parliament building.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saskatchewan_Legislative_Building
Elain manitoba on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 9:46 am
Manitoba another fucking shit hole with a small population with a really weak economy. Yet is has a beautiful parliament building. Go read historical records about the poverty in Manitoba during the colonization of Canada. It always been a shit hole forever.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manitoba_Legislative_Building
selen diarrhea on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 10:10 am
The food is uneatable. It gives me stomach, diarrhea. Each time I eat I have stomach pain. It feels as if someone wants me to stop eating permanently. I guess dimensional travel can only be done once you stop eating and drinking.
Do we have studies that compare today foods with 50 old foods.
female food on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 10:13 am
I was looking at sea food at the grocery. Some of them look like flour mixed with oil compressed together to make a small cylinder. It was coming from China obviously.
xeon grahime on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 10:20 am
I write these comments as historical records. I hope someone will save them for future historical refence about what happened on earth.
valeire plane on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 11:20 am
Russia the land where the have the most flexible female in the world. They can do what is not humanly possible.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nERrRfvfEak
female rubber on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 11:24 am
Russia the land where the female are made of rubber and not human flesh.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuP9ffpDIbw
africa alien on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 11:29 am
She looks like a grey alien but with a bigger butt.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ekKa3YeePY
celine dion on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 11:51 am
La nature c’est beau mais c’est sale. He is right earth is a ball made of animal shit and piss.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjXCREM3hKI
zero nova on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 12:04 pm
Who makes a video like that. This look pedophile shit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uSUWp8ySsQ
welling williams on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 12:07 pm
Loot at the video, starting at 0:29. She has trouble controlling her tongue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uSUWp8ySsQ
welling yelloyell on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 12:27 pm
This is not possible. It violate the first and second law of Newton. Her gravite center is located somewhere around her butt. She should fall of there butt. The muscular strength needed at the should level is too big to be able to hold such a position. See at 1:21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjYLCbZwtoM
It really is the realm of dead or the underworld.
Valrian Jonews on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 12:28 pm
This is not possible. It violate the first and second law of Newton. Her gravity center is located somewhere around her butt. She should fall of her but. The muscular strength needed at the shoulder level is too big to be able to hold such a position. See at 1:21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjYLCbZwtoM
It really is the realm of dead or the underworld.
wellin ratout on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 3:01 pm
I am not sure why I am writing this, but I will write it anyway. There is female out there that are highly sexualized. They will smell your worst body odors and become totally fill with sexual lost. An highly sexual type of specie where the female is turned on by the smell of bloods, sweat, urine and shit. She will turn around you in a state of total sexual lust and won’t be happy until you have violently humiliate her during sex. She will only be happy if you almost kill her during sex. I call them the warrior creator.
This is what I see when I look at this video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uSUWp8ySsQ
Hews nofriedns on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 3:22 pm
Remember that for the Jews every sexual act is a rape. Feminism was created to protect women against sexual violence. Maybe the real goal of the Jews and feminism is to hide the existences of such female. Jews know deep inside that everyone hates them. Everyone that is using feminism as a way to protect women against violence is suspect to me, I am looking at you Europe, Israel and UK,
karine fernale on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 3:29 pm
CNN has not posted a new video in the last 7 hours. Other news network as still putting out videos such fox news, msnbc and nbc. You don’t find that funny. Who own CNN, a Jews.
https://www.youtube.com/@CNN/videos
danile pilon on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 4:06 pm
How do I know all of this. I think my dna is some kind of memory database. Slowly I am able to access my past memory from past reincarnations cycles. Some people suggest the DNA are memory storing cells. That could make sense.