It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
elain yelling on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 7:53 am
Maybe the controllers of the earth have decided to destroy their own creation this is why they are not intervening. Only the chosen ones will live. What other explanations is there to explain what is happening ?
Normaie fetrea on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 8:02 am
this is something that nobody dare to mentioned. Are the controllers of the earth destroying their own creation? It sure looks that way from my point of view. Find me a better reason.
Helie granstandig on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 11:07 am
Go look at his fucking youtube page. Each video with Trump in the title has a lot of views. Other videos has less views. This is some kind of propaganda.
https://www.youtube.com/@LateNightSeth/videos
heline marcella on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 11:55 am
The building of the UN in New York look like an antenna that could be used to broadcast fake holographic projections. Look like some kind of antenna. It is way bigger then I thought. Typical communist speech. It will take a lof of explosives to destroy this building.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LqVdweOnY78
Grakie selene on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 12:22 pm
I will explain to you why they dont want a King.
A King has a personal guard and a personal army.
Personal guard is there for personal protection and to carry execution or arrest on the behalf of the King. For example, if he wants to kill Bill Maher, a King will ask his personal guard to take care of it.
The King also have a personal army. This is the army that he would use for bigger military operation such as destroying the UN headquarter in New York. The persona army is under the command of the King or his personal guard depending of the situation.
You can easily see that it is not same power structure as democracy.
regit labelle on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 12:43 pm
See what I mean. They are hiding behind democracy.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hrd4NHagmEo
Platirc metal on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 2:26 pm
Look at Jimmy Kimmel videos list. All the videos with Trump in the title have over 1 millions views. The other videos have way less view. So fucking obvious there is a agenda at play.
https://www.youtube.com/@JimmyKimmelLive/videos
velaint selena on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 2:39 pm
Being a King is actually a really shitty jobs. Only losers want to become King. It is a fucking shitty jobs, people just cannot image how shit of a job it is.
Yashim quran on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 2:51 pm
The best job is extreme voluntary simplicity where you don’t work or work only a small number of hours. Everything else is for losers who don’t understand that earth is a slavery camp.
laferm tuque on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 2:56 pm
If you work for a living you are a loser that don’t understand how earth slavery system is working.
If you are married and have kids, you are also a loser that don’t understand how earth slavery system works.
Eleian fremoint on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 3:02 pm
If you work for a living, own a big house and drive an expensive car, you are fucking loser that love to be slaved.
Tremable carl on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 8:11 pm
I am back from the grocery store. I just punched the screen of the self checkout machine. There were a camera on top of machine. You should have a video of the whole incident. Just look at the video. Punching a self checkout screen with the full force of my fist and I did not feel any pain afterward. I know you monitor me. Go watch the video and come up with your own conclusions.
Nothing is more dangerous that a fat man in a fit of rage. Nothing beats that. Forget about you karate, judo, and fear the fat man in a fit a rage. Go watch and enjoy the full strength of a fat man.
Jill didet on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 8:20 pm
As I said before, depending of what will be the final form of my flesh body, I will come and kill some of you responsible for the creation of canada firearms laws. Go watch video. You can find the grocery store by looking at my credit card purchases. Notice the speed at which I hit the screen. Go watch. I will come to kill some of you.
floride texas on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 8:38 pm
There is circles of color around the moon. You have the moon in the middle, inside a white circle, surrounded by a small circle of yellow light, surrounded by a small circle of red light, surrounded by a bigger circle of blue light and finally a small circle of yellow light. Go watch the moon if you live in Québec.
It look like a fucking eye. Go watch outside. Maybe you won’t see them if you don’t have an upgrade flesh body. I am going to come and kill some of you personally if I can.
patrick lagage on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 9:23 pm
1:05 look at Bush face. He has the face of the devil. How come nobody is talking about that. I know, they all work together to keep this fake illusion alive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOnU7xmvwxs
heline tetrault on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 9:38 pm
This is in french but it illustrates what I was saying in a previous comment. Falardeau said some bad about a dead politicians. The interviewer is trying to shame him for what he said. I commented about this. The interviewer is trying to protect the fake facade that politicians are respectable people and we should respect them and worship the authority they represent. The interviewr is trying to protect the false image that politicians are in control when it is not true.
Falardeau understood what kind of world we really live in and it was just a illusion
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mcRJ2WyNTs
danile pilon on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 9:50 pm
There is one movie made by Falardeau where Elvis Graton buys a TV station. This is satirical movie that explain how Canadian media manipulate people. This is probably one of the best movie ever made in Québec.
Falardeau was a man that was proud and happy to be a White Quebecer. Not many like that in Québec history. They basically made him poor by excluding him from the main medias.
Steel plastic on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 10:17 pm
Falardeau had what is called a warrior heart. HI fought until his death against the establishments. He was a men with a really high IQ. They made him destitute but they could never kill his warrior heart. Another one that I don’t like is Richard Martineau and his wife. Two fucking prostitues that will sell their souls for fame and money. Richard Martineau should be on kill list. You should see the interview that Martineau did with Falardeau before his death. You will understand what I mean.
heline marcilina on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 10:28 pm
There is probably a video of me at the grocery store where I made 360 circle. This is the energy field passing through me and forcings me body to behave incoherently. I am pretty sure you have this one on tape also. Go look at it. It happen today when I punched the screen of the self checkout machine at the grocery store. It happens to me all the time when I am at home. I call this side effects from my body upgrades. If I can I will come and kill some of you personally.
jamien presley on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 10:39 pm
If I can I will come and I will kill all the RCMP high level management personally. They are the ones responsible for enforcement of Canada firearms laws. I will turn Canada soil red using the blood of the traitors.
About todie on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 11:18 pm
Trump really has the facial expression of a man that is about to die. See at 2:11.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMmYxB9INKs
betraine ferone on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 11:30 pm
0:04 look at these people. They look like dead cadaver, especially their faces. Look they are the dead the bible is talking about. they are the ones that cannot see their own image in a mirror because they are dead. We really live in the underworld with the dead. They are vampire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewl7MvHw9Kk
They made movies about the underworld we are currently living.
betraind plastic on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 11:31 pm
They made movies about the underworld we are currently living. Here is the link.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_IoL7g5Ub8
cecili dion on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 12:45 am
Another interesting fact. Can Tuna is mostly coming from Thailand, and se. Sea food are coming from China and Vietnam, All the can tuna we have here in Québec comes from Thailand You have to love globalism. perfect recipe for a disaster at the planetary scale once maritime containers shipping stop because of peak oil.
natural ressouces on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 12:57 am
I think they believe that the way to manage natural resources or earth is by creating competition among nation. They believe that more profit a company make, more efficiently natural ressources of earth are used. I think that is how they see it. They seem to think maximizing profit will lead to a better usage of natural resources.
Pierre Falardeau on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 1:25 am
Maximining profit means that redundancy is not allowed, this means a fragile supply chain that cannot endure a long period of disruption. They seem to think that slavery is acceptable if it maximized profit because it reduce the consumption of natural ressources that the slaves can access. Slavery is perfectly fine in the mind.
Maximining profit will eventually leads to a cycle of self destruction. This is what we are currently seeing. Their solution to this is smart cities where people obey and worship authority.
nadine tethrauel on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 1:26 am
I still think that only the chosen ones will live, and everyone else on earth will die during the self destruction phase.
Daniel Pillon on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 1:29 am
In their management language maximizing profit equal improving efficiency therefore maximizing the usage of natural ressources. This is how they think.
Naidne lapante on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 1:32 am
Carter used to called that productivity and he was complaining that Americans were not productive enough. They move everything in Asia to maximiser profit or maximise the usage of natural resources. They really are something these fucking cuck suckers.
denis villeneuse on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 1:44 am
I still find that troubling that they refuse to identify themself and still prefer to hide themself. I cannot explain such a coward behavior.
graphit steel on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 1:47 am
We are destroying a big parts of California by fire, and they still have not come out and try to talk to us or negotiate something. This is an illogical behavior. They are just fucking losers and cowards.
heiine ulysee on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 2:05 am
We are destroying a big parts of California by fire, and they still have not come out and try to talk to us or negotiate something. This is an illogical behavior unless their goal is to kill everyone on earth, then their behavior make sense. They kill everyone to start a new race as in this underworld movie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCtm8L4PQt8
yelling welling on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 9:06 am
Even video games are predicted the end of United Nations. Videos games are predicting the coming of a dictator. You have to see that shit to believe it. See at 0:44 for UN part.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4BJLi5r2nc
ferome grahaim on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 9:40 am
Listen this loser trying to convince the world that globalism is still the best system and we should invest more time and energy into making globalism better. Listen at him talking about Mercosur being a big plus for Europe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjJlIy4NwcU
ferland jean on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 9:51 am
Europe, UK and Israel are the biggest defenders of globalism. Fucking globalists whore. If you want to know why earth is such a mess look in the direction of Europe, Israel and UK.
teleome Ferone on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 9:56 am
The French votes against joining the EU. But their votes was discarded by the European globalists elites and they were forced to joint the EU. Fucking piece of shit European globalists elites.
velome selene on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 10:04 am
The US is infested with think tank group promoting the benefits of US and EU cooperation. A lot of traitor inside US soil.
You have the Atlantic council that is enemy with in the US soil.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W85ubSIURig
You also have the Bilderberg group that is also an enemy within US soil.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bilderberg_Conference
You have also the UN that is an enemy withing US soil.
The list is really long.
Notice that you have no Russian think tank group within the US. Same with Africa.
Jaime presly on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 10:25 am
Notice also that all these green net zero ideas are coming from Europe. It is Europe that is pushing for wind mill, solar panels. Notice that these ideas where not started by Russia or Africa.
Velarian Desting on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 10:32 am
Notice that mass migration is also a concept cherish by UK, Europe and Israel. You never head Russia or Africa making the promotion on a global stage mass migration.
belene ulysee on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 10:42 am
As I said, the NSA was never created to spy on a car mechanic in Texas doing muffler jobs for 15$ an hour. I was created to spy on the internal enemies of the US: Jews, think tanks, CEO of big corporation, politicians, medias, financial industries such as BlackRock, state street, vanguard. DO you really think we care about what a truck driver is thinking or doing during his day of work.
betrna laporte on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 11:10 am
Low IQ people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNl7GQFTULU
betrane babrface on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 11:37 am
yvette. The truck driver that weight 110 lbs pound with a baby doll face. She sure is a strong women for 110 lbs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaMjYEib430
It makes perfect sense to have a women with a baby doll face driving truck. I am the only apparently that find that bizarre.
delon helena on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 12:10 pm
If I look at Yvette and I have an erection, does it make me a pedophile. Just asking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oRrODyA1-M
trudeaul jean on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 1:06 pm
You really have fuckup shit as coat of arms for certain nations. Is it the real one or fake one
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coat_of_arms_of_Trinidad_and_Tobago
yelling strolling on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 1:22 pm
Is this their real coat of arms.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coat_of_arms_of_Trinidad_and_Tobago
By looking at it, I cannot figure out if they are mocking us, or they are serious about it.
jaime laporte on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 1:31 pm
I feel the same way about the Canadian flag. I cannot figure out if they are mocking us, or they are serious about it.
regit labeaume on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 2:09 pm
I was smoking a cigarette in the parking lot of a store. I could see green spots leaving the moon and turning around and going back toward the moon. I could seen all kind of patterns last night. These color spots seem to turn around me as if they were creating this fake world using colors.
I really need money to be able to buy a better car.
westing islraie on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 2:25 pm
I want a F150 tremor with a torsen differential in the front. I can sleep in the back seats if I have temporary malaise and I also want to go explore logging roads and see what is happening in the forest.
Bertina jonews on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 2:31 pm
This what I want with a torsen differential with the lift kit. I can sleep on the back seats and I can drive on logging roads with that without any problems that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFrN9sBKlVA
carline lavaume on Fri, 10th Jan 2025 2:55 pm
The HMCS Harry DeWolf ship have a 20 tons crane on it. I thought it was really bizarre when I first saw that. The F150 tremor weight 2.5 metric tone. The ship as a crane of 20 tonnes. It is a fucking big crane made for heavy load. It is a ship made to survey new lands.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFrN9sBKlVA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWTCujhAn6w