It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Betrei laporete on Sun, 5th Jan 2025 6:36 am
7:10 there is ripples on the flag. It is my understanding that he was a traitor of the nation. The message is that he was a traitor to the nation and we know what he did.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Krx3gdWk9xU
Laemein Hellena on Sun, 5th Jan 2025 6:39 am
Nassau County executive refuses to fly flags at half-staff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlKHI7TVqE4
He was a traitor and deserve humiliated during his funeral, this is the purpose of the ripple on top of casket.
marianne france on Sun, 5th Jan 2025 6:47 am
If you are a politicians, in the future, you will automatically considered as a traitor and you will be killed with your family.
Obama Barrakce on Sun, 5th Jan 2025 11:56 am
Loot at the ripple on the flag on top of casket.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=trisl6EnK-s
If you are a politicians, in the future, you will automatically considered as a traitor and you will be killed with your family. Same goes for EPA staff, FDA staff, ATF staff. Your cadavers will serve to created warriors through procreation. A race of warrior that knows nothing other they war, bloods, rape and murder. A race of warrior that will think that earth was always a place of war as they would have know nothing else since they are born. This is your future Canada and the US. Big mistake to have created these Canada firearms laws. A race of warrior that would have been procreated around cadavers and born around cadavers.
Heline marcil on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 7:39 am
If you are a politicians, in the future, you will be automatically considered as a traitor and you will be killed with your family. If you work for some big main street medias, you will be automatically considered as a traitor and you will be killed with your family.
All the people in the video below will be killed as we see them as traitors.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNEIMBtPOLo
Gutfeld and all of his guests are already dead. They just don’t know it yet. Got watch the movie civil war and look at the ripples on the Jimmy Carter casket.
Deux groups of people have already been judged and condemn to death:
1-politicinas
2-people working in the media.
Ulysee grope on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 8:02 am
A third group of people will be arrested and interrogated using torture to get more information about who is controlling earth. Here is a list:
1-CEO and high level managements of big corporations: John Deere, Google, Meta, Ford. GM,
2-People working for big mutual fund: Blackrock, Vanguard, State Street, CME group, Federal reserve,
3-Teachers working in universities medical schools such as Harvard, McGill will be arrested and interrogated.
4-Universties management will be arrested and will be asked why social sciences exists why there is no masculinism studies programs and only feminism studies program.
Betrand plastic on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 8:20 am
Company manufacture GPS devices such as Garmin will be taken over by us. We will prove using their software that earth is flat. We will prove that there is no satellites in space but just a set of antenna stimulating satellites in the space.
CN tower of Toronto is such antenna sending signal to simulate space satellites. This is what I believe.
Obakem jewish on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 8:44 am
Israel main infrastructures such as water, electricity, parliaments, government offices will be destroyed by the US military. Israel will be declared as enemy of the US. Jews people living in North America will be made second classes citizens. They will not be allowed to work in military, financial industries, universities teachers. A lot internal measures will be put in place to contain the internal enemies within the US: the Jewish people and Israel.
jerome babe on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 9:55 am
I told you to abolish the Canadian firearms laws 2 year ago. You refuse to obey me. You will all die for that.
Valerian Jiele on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 10:22 am
Let me guess. Some of you have read my comments and believe I will come to help North America. I told you, I am not here to help you, I am here to see you failed. I told you to abolish Canada firearms laws 2 year ago. Maybe I am just trolling the whole planet earth. Did you ever consider that I am just trolling earth.
I dare you to come to ask me for my help and see what kind of answer you will get.
elaine denniaelainedenia on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 11:44 am
You piece of shit don’t seem to understand what is going on. I have the invisible world working with me against the controller of the earth. You stupid piece of shit have no ideas what is about to happen and how much bloods will be shaded.
xena selena on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 11:53 am
There is a reason why politicians and media personals will be killed first in a red blood bath. It is to shift earth reality from a peace reality into a war reality in a brutal manner, that everyone one earth will not doubt that we now live in a war reality. After there will be only war on the North American continent.
valriel serlir on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 11:58 am
I told you to never confiscate the weapons of a man like Canada did. You never know how they will react. You never what you will unleash until it starts for real. You have no idea what you did by creating the Canadian firearms laws.
Jakime presely on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 12:40 pm
Trump is just a puppet. He does not have the support of the US military. This is why he does all his press conferences from his home. He is an isolated men, same as all the politicians in Washingtons and Ottawa.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RJFezPWEO8
Nakdiei wellen on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 1:10 pm
You want to know why the sale of US steel to the Japan has been canceled. Japan is not considered a friendly nations anymore. People are right Biden does not make any decision, we do.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Ynch741ZQ4
A new list of friendly nations will rewritten and Japan, Israel, UK and Europe will not be seen as friendly nations in the future.
Yelleo wellin on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 2:09 pm
Global cooling will lead to flooding and the death of everyone. Mud will bury the bottom of the building exactly like last time. It will be a global event like last time. I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. Never confiscate the weapons of a man, you never know what will be his reactions. The bible talk about the great flood also.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3f6Lbp3_Fw
helo behind on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 2:45 pm
I told you that Trump will try to sabotage himself. Nobody want to be the US present. There is too much problems to solve. You cannot fix the US. A normal survival reaction of any rational person is to bail out. We need Danemark to protect the free world. This is mega trolling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQE8ADdjBck
denis welling on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 2:58 pm
This is funny as fuck. Trump is trolling the whole world and the media. Look at the media taking him seriously. There is no low to which the main street media will not go just for rating. They don’t dare to say the truth that Trump is trolling the world. They are such fucking losers in the medias.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqK2X1ZTtfw
jake brake on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 3:21 pm
This shit is unbelievable. At 1:55 she said what do we make of this. The guess should have answer something like: I think he is trolling the whole world and making fun of the job of president of the US. They cannot say that because it will destroy the fake face.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqK2X1ZTtfw
elvis gratton on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 3:55 pm
It is well done including the Quebecer accent. Best part start at 1:52.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSmz6GpKDe8
betrie heline on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 4:24 pm
Nobody cares about Canada. Whites Canadians deep inside think that Canada is a joke. Whites Canadians have no emotional attachement toward Canada. Canada is already a dead nation inside that will stop to exist in 50 year from now.
1:57 illustrate that in a satirical way
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zgn5eb7FYQA
nwoamd parlour on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 4:33 pm
4:04 look at all the ripples on the flag of the casket. This mean, we know you were a traitor, we know all politicians are also traitors, we knows that the nation is full of traitor. This is a warning to all the traitors inside the US.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLIY67gNkqw
treamble pierre on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 4:51 pm
Look at the flag on the right side at 4:55. The end of the flag is not even with the rest of flag. This mean we know what you did to our nations. This could be interpreted as expect revenge and retaliation from us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jL9uDdl5IBo
jaine lapresse on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 5:09 pm
This is where the creation of Canada firearms laws might come to bit you in the ass. Normally I would stay away, but If I am told that I would be able to get revenge against Canadian politicians for the creation of Canada firearms laws, I might get involve just to be able to kill Canadian politicians. You made a big mistake there. Never confiscate the weapons of man, you never know how he will react.
normand lola on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 5:47 pm
Again no one in the news is talking about the flag lying on top of Carter casket. It is so obvious that the flag was used to send a message. Fucking media, only good a propaganda and manipulation. Jump at 3:37. So fucking obvious. It is the 20 to 30 year old whites men that have nave nothing to lose by starting a civil war. They know they have no futur, might as well die while killing traitors. This is how they probably see it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrR6aY4Q82M
real belland on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 7:10 pm
You really think that Whites men like me are stupid and don’t see what you did to Canada and the West. You really think that men like me will help you rebuild. Come to my house to ask me for help, and see what kind of answer you will get from me. Nobody confiscate my weapons from me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XL8s2LSHAOU
belive denia on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 8:04 pm
Fucking Jews. Everyone knows they must be exterminated all of them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYQUpO5BYY4
alina lvfoe on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 8:38 pm
It is the Whites men between 20 to 35 that will determine how violent and bloody will be the civil war. There are the ones the will do the fighting. It will be the older Whites men that will make the strategic war plans as always.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgKGIhfKrpY
welling germina on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 8:52 pm
A civil war is chaotic by nature. Civil war will provide a perfect cover to exterminate the Jews living in North America without people noticing what is going on.
lolo eroado on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 9:00 pm
this seem to suggest that the military command center during the North American civil war will be located in Canada.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBCIJ3QluHY
Heline Marcillea on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 9:25 pm
This seem to suggest that North America power center will be moved out of the US in Canada. Canadian currency will be used to buy equipment needed to keep an US civil war going for a long period of time. Canada will not become the 51 state, US will become the 14 province of Canada. Trump has everything wrong on this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBCIJ3QluHY
jerome deloyer on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 9:43 pm
Canada cold weather will protect Canada against mass displacements of people seeking to leave the US because of the civil war. Making the trip to Canada on foot or by car too dangerous because of winter, so the civil war will be contain inside the US.
bertne jeaune on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 9:57 pm
The federal Canadians politicians will be killed and the federal government dismantled. The ice breaking and coast guard ships will be transferred to the east and west coast provinces. The custom service will also be transferred to the provinces, same with Canada post. RCMP responsible for Canda firearms licenses will be dismantle also. Bank of Canada will keep operating as usual but will report to a new authority
Naide fleur on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 10:11 pm
Some of the US navy fleet will be transferred to the east and west coast of Canada if possible. Some of the US military equipment will be relocated in Canada if possible.
gree terimet on Tue, 7th Jan 2025 10:25 pm
NO fucking cock sucker at 1:20:33. Japan will be kick out of the US. EPA laws will be abolished and Ford and GM will be able again to manufacture small affordable and reliable car with a manual transmission and no direct injection. Once EPA regulation are removed, Ford and GM will be able to compete against Japanese cars. Devaluing Japan currency to take advantage of US market is something that will stop.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5a-THuxCFL4
llarin grah on Wed, 8th Jan 2025 6:53 am
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. I just did not tell you how I would do it. Destroying the US currency it is like destroy Japan, South Korean, Israel. I did not tell you how I will kill all the population of earth.
I will tell you how I will kill all the Japanese and Jews living in Israel, by killing the US currency. Watch the 10 year treasury yield.
jaime preslye on Wed, 8th Jan 2025 7:04 am
Hyperinflation was the reason why a civil war in the US started in the movie civil war. They are really clear about that. Watch the 10 year US treasury yield for when hyperinflation will kick in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBCIJ3QluHY
betrane jones on Wed, 8th Jan 2025 7:10 am
The movie also seems to imply that politicians will be one of the main targets according to the movie. Politicians and people working in the media will be the first ones to die. Nobody confiscate my handguns from me using some kind of bullshit laws like Canada did. Never confiscate the firearms of a man, you never know how he will react.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WnE15v4Gets
Beline Heline on Wed, 8th Jan 2025 7:34 am
Don’t worry I am not killing anyone. I am just using earth and its people for my personal entertainment. I am just killing fake CGI human beings. According to the medical establishments, people neck did not get longer and there is no need to make a press conference to talk about it.
Just enjoy the ride while I take earth and transform it into a hell hole.
xero farnelly on Wed, 8th Jan 2025 8:06 am
16:45 Same consoles as in the past except with better quality flat screen. CAE electronics consoles would be my guess. Technology has not progressed much in the last 30 years. Some little things were improved but it nothing to be impressed about. We reach the end of what we can accomplish on earth in a matrix of solid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-juisJYu3-4
Daniel elena on Wed, 8th Jan 2025 10:27 am
There is a lot of storage on these ships. These are the kind of ships you would use if you planning to leave earth for other lands and never come back. Diesel consumption is an issue with these kind of ship. Like the movie Children on men. It is a ship with thick hull and lot of cargo space.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-juisJYu3-4
naide quran on Wed, 8th Jan 2025 10:39 am
This is a ship design to survey new lands. This is how I feel about it. Only chosen people will be allowed to leave earth. All of you will die here like the fucking losers you all are.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWTCujhAn6w
xenao ililina on Wed, 8th Jan 2025 3:52 pm
It is not because we have ship designed to survey new lands that it means that a door will be opened and earth population will be allowed to leave. For example Jews will never leave earth. Maybe we should kill all the Jews living on earth if we want to be able to move into news lands. You need to have certain credential to leave earth. Very few people have these credentials.
germein latulipe on Wed, 8th Jan 2025 5:15 pm
By the way, there is more then one way to leave earth. Some people have special flesh body that allow them to do dimensional travel. Moving to a new lands does not mean that everyone can do it without a updated flesh body. Does not mean that the new lands have the same characteristics as the old lands.
I advise Canada to make more restrictive firearms laws. This is the only thing you are good for, taking away people rights for no good reason. You are on the right track. I support your work to take away more freedom from regular folks. Go canada.
Don’t get too excited Fucking low IQ losers. I just said that the ship seems designed to explore news lands. News lands could just mean an iceberg in the middle of no where. Earth is populated with such pathetic losers. Always waiting for a savior like a 2 year old babe.
celine dion on Wed, 8th Jan 2025 5:24 pm
You really think that earth population is ready to travel to new world when you are fucking afraid of firearms and people carrying firearms on themself. You are just fucking pathetic low IQ losers. GO canada, it is the best country in the world, GO CANADA.
Farnile regis on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 6:31 am
This shit is beyond fuck up. Trump is trolling the whole US media establishment and nobody dare to say that Trump is trolling them. Everything to keep this fake facade alive. Everything to keep this illusion the democracy is the best form of governance while Trump is there destroy democracy from the inside. Nobody in the US media establishment dare to say that Trump is actually destroying democracy from the inside. Fucking traitors.
This cock sucker is helping us destroy the US media establishment form the inside.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdIwinjXnOA
Regial labaume on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 6:35 am
Normally you would avoid talking about Trump in the media. Now you are putting Trump everywhere and helping him send his message that democracy is a scam. I don’t understand.
wellin yelling on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 6:52 am
Does he understand that by helping us destroy democracy he is endangering his own life. Does he understand that the destruction of democracy will likely lead to the installation of King. Most likely a King would kill him. Should they talk about something else then Trump in order to protect their own life. They are just fucking losers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9iKsCCSVes
venrial disease on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 7:25 am
‘Middle finger to the optics’: Trump calls Justice Alito amid Hail Mary bid to duck sentencing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3LXamuTJus
Should they stop talking about Trump. One day a guy will show up at MSNBC start asking questions. He will not like the answers and he will kill all of them. Should someone intervene from somewhere and put a stop the destruction of their invasion plan: destruction of democracy, destruction of the media, kill of earth trees, inflation.
laline pure on Thu, 9th Jan 2025 7:29 am
the controllers of the earth will just watch us destroy their invasion plans without trying to contact us and negotiate something. You are just going to do nothing. You invested all this time and money to build earth as a prefect slavery center, and you will stand there and do nothing while we are destroying everything.
JUST WOW, JUST WOW.