It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
carline laporte on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 4:57 pm
see what I mean here:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/BE5Vrjtiig4
aldine tremblay on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 5:22 pm
This look like some kind of anal rape sexual position where the female offer her asshole for rape. See at 1:55
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H99wLvygXNQ
danile tramblay on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 5:27 pm
If this is not a technique to provoque sexual procreation with a man with a low sex drive, I don’t know what it is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qW1t84rGK5E
cmaile sgmela on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 5:42 pm
2:24 looks like a man that is forced to smell her vagina. He looks like a man that is forced to procreate against his will. The fight goes on the ground where she goes on top of him and force him into procreation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07KHVWuAw8s
cgreoe treump on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 5:48 pm
1:24 same comments as above. Man that is forced into procreation. Trying to get him erected for procreation purposes. He feels the shape of her vagina against the back of his head. Some of you must have a really low sex drive to have not noticed these things.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvWUDZDyFBE
valeria orama on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 6:24 pm
Another procreation sport to help men with a low sexual appetite. I could go on and on about this topic but I will stop here. We are going to kill everyone on earth, you are just fucking low IQ losers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6jmlaSWF5o
celine dion on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 6:31 pm
I insist that we kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. It will never happen to me in the futur again once I kill everyone living on earth. You will learn your lesson the hard way, it seems it is the only people learn.
heliben jaremaime on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 7:25 pm
I think the birth rate is too low to keep earth slavery camp alive. They over abused their slaves (see South Korea and Japan) and they have revolted by stopping procreation. I think this is why they came up with female beach volleyball, pole dancing, and other similar methods.
geaton lalonde on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 8:11 pm
This is what you would be doing if you trying to boost the birth rate but don’t people to know.
You would have girls dancing, opening their legs while on their backs and arching their backs like female cats in heat. I think that was the real purpose of the Olympics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9APAMOJadUE
treamle pierre on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 8:33 pm
The way she lay down on the thing. Butt up in the air and arms by the side of her body. This is a submissive sexual positon where her arms are tied together. This look like an submissive anal rape position.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YndXbw8cAaQ
aline lapute on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 8:37 pm
Her head is up. This looks like the position you would use if you were being throat fucked with our hands tied behind your back. It could also be an anal sex sexual position.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YndXbw8cAaQ
yellow mazime on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 8:48 pm
Doggy style sexual position followed by laying down for anal sex. If you run earth as slavery reality, you constantly need slaves to replace the old ones that are dying. You need to make sure that procreation will take place. See at 0:52
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2VYB8hFVu0
yellow elene on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 9:15 pm
Falardeau is talking about that. Earth is a sophisticated slavery center where we are building a civilisation for somebody else.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56si8bfw6IM
germe helone on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 9:19 pm
Mostly likely there is doors in and out of earth, and other world outside of earth with higher high tech that we have here.
thaholl king on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 9:26 pm
I think there is a door around Thailand, They have colonized Thailand way before Canada and the US.
ereie fact on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 10:35 pm
Food is uneatable. Not sure how long earth civilization will stay alive. Aluminium sulfate in one of the pizza. Totally safe for you to eat aluminium.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3yorOlQIVY
xene quruan on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 10:39 pm
I told you that you lost earth civilization. People are too retarded to see it.
alain delon on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 11:20 pm
I will repeat that. Nobody in the past has ever confiscated my weapons from me, it will never happen again after I kill all the population of earth.
alain delon on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 11:56 pm
Mixed wrestling is an actual sexual fantasy. I dont know if it is faisable in real life because I have never done it. Mixed wrestling video with dying trees in the background.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-oK5Q1UVxyM
alain laporete on Thu, 16th Jan 2025 12:01 am
this is a form of sexual procreation. the goal is to start this way until sexual submission where procreation take place. I don’t know if it is done outside of earth, but it sure look like procreation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfQXzqE2tHw
alin dejeron on Thu, 16th Jan 2025 12:14 am
5:55 missionary sexual position.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ng8HTQ4Vm8
Earth need slaves, keeping men sexual appetite up is of primordial importance.
tramele jean on Thu, 16th Jan 2025 12:24 am
Men can only be controlled if they are married or if they have kids. A man is control using divorce tribunal, rape laws or family courts. You need to make sure that sexual intercourse happen if you want to control a man. You have to make sure to keep men sexual appetite up using hidden means as I commented previously.
Single men like me cannot be controlled and domesticated.
alain frelon on Thu, 16th Jan 2025 12:29 am
This control of men using women was started as soon as the black and white TV was available. It was not as obvious as it is today, but still obvious.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbuFLUJ89Kw
Heline caroline on Sat, 18th Jan 2025 9:43 am
I just came back from the grocery store. The speed at which conifers trees are dying is amazing. I estimate that 1.5 year all conifers trees in my area are going to be dead. Maybe even through the whole province of Québec. You have to see that shit to believe it, and even then.
Joe laporete on Sat, 18th Jan 2025 3:52 pm
Thailand the land that was colonized first. North America, the last land colonized after all of earth was already colonized. The mysterious land with everything in it. Sex, tuna canning manufacturing, and many more.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxnSFoAs7hY
jaime presley on Sat, 18th Jan 2025 4:05 pm
You must be really in love with sex to come with shit like that. I told you that there is a sexual realm somewhere that is hidden from us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hZeh1tVTr8
jaime france on Sat, 18th Jan 2025 4:26 pm
Look at the back arching. Same thing female gymnase do. You think it is just a coincidence.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDJLvDwD7HQ
Female gymnastics. See what I mean.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5h1i_PFNqw
ufo sexseries on Sat, 18th Jan 2025 4:38 pm
Earth is a slavery camp based on sexual reproduction. In order to keep the slavery camp alive new slaves or babies must be produced at a continues rate otherwise the slavery camp will die. So you need sexual reproduction to happen at a certain rate by year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jmfw9O7I3vE
harryd vaine on Sat, 18th Jan 2025 4:54 pm
I fucking told you. As soon as color TV became main street, you saw show like wonder women appeared. This was made to boost men sexual appetite.
As soon as TV cable was available, the first thing that appeared was channel dedicated to broadcast pornographies 24 hours. Then the internet porn came in as soon as the internet was invented.
They need high IQ s slaves and sexual reproduction is not able to provide them that. Without high IQ slaves, this civilization will die.
Alain leduc on Sat, 18th Jan 2025 8:51 pm
Ostie que c’est drôle. On ne voit même pas les feux d’artifice. On voit juste la face laide a Trump avec son menton allongé par en avant. Est-ce que Trump se moque des gens vivants au USA. On pourrait probablement dire cela.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buOxxcj7svE
Alain presse on Sat, 18th Jan 2025 9:01 pm
You want know why sometime you see bum and poor people in streets. It is to manipule the human slaves into working harder and be more productive. It goes bit like this.
A person sees these poor peoples, he will tell himself I don’t want to be poor. I will work extra harder at my job to make sure that I am not losing my job. I will say yes to everything my boss is asking because I don’t want to lose my job and become poor like these guys.
Remember earth is a slavery prison, they don’t see us as humans they see us as slaves to be exploited to the maximum until death.
aline leduc on Sat, 18th Jan 2025 9:21 pm
They made truck drivers slave of their truck. The have a bigger sleeper cabine so they can stay longer on the road without going back home. They do that because now we run a just in time supply chain and to save on diesel fuel and always run th truck fully loaded. A empty truck is always available near by to take the next load to keep the just in time supply chain alive and save on diesel fuel. They improve the truck stops with better shower to keep the truckers happy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iiPYFSfa7ZA
Truck with a bigger sleeper cabine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19_yylBodn4
They really see us as their personal slaves.
alaine lpaoret on Sat, 18th Jan 2025 9:39 pm
Sexual reproduction does not produces a lot of high IQ people. Not enough to maintain earth civilisation alive. Sexual reproduction is not the right system to produce high IQ people. It always failed. We are seeing this in real time now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sP2tUW0HDHA
Everyone on earth will die. It is unavoidable.
Jean lessage on Sat, 18th Jan 2025 9:46 pm
If you want intelligent beings, you have to create them from scratch not through sexual reproduction. They don’t have a mother, they have a creator. It is guaranteed that everyone on earth will die. Sexual reproduction is a failure on so many level.
elaine tramble on Sat, 18th Jan 2025 9:50 pm
Track number 2 off Susan Lynne’s seminal third album “Backdoor Delights.” Released 1961 on 12 inch vinyl.
Susan Lynne – Do Me From Behind
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbWuGpsjieA
This is the kind of garbage sexual reproduction produces, low IQ losers.
gramel osborn on Sat, 18th Jan 2025 10:05 pm
Earth population has never seen intelligence. Earth is populated with only mentally retarded low IQ losers.
anisml tothebone on Sat, 18th Jan 2025 10:11 pm
Human are basically animals because you were created using sexual reproduction. Everything that is created by sexual reproduction is considered an animal, including humans. Beings of high intelligence are created being. Not the same thing.
xernon lapierre on Sat, 18th Jan 2025 11:42 pm
There is no such things are human rights. It is an UN invention to hide the fact that everything that reproduce using sex is an animals. It is to hide the fact that earth is an animal refuge.
https://www.ohchr.org/en/what-are-human-rights
Jeane regis on Sun, 19th Jan 2025 12:01 am
Why the coat of arms of some many nations have animals in it. Because the ancient understood that humans are animals because they reproduce using sexual reproduction.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coat_of_arms_of_Canada
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coat_of_arms_of_Trinidad_and_Tobago
Intelligent beings are created not born using sexual reproduction.
Obama Barrack on Sun, 19th Jan 2025 12:32 am
the reason why no savior came to save human is because you are not human you are animals. Nobody care about the well being of animals.
Josuhay froge on Sun, 19th Jan 2025 12:40 am
Everything has to be reveal before we destroy earth and kill everyone it.
Oh, let the sun beat down upon my face, with stars to fill my dream.
I am a traveler of both time and space to be where I have been.
To sit with elders of a gentle race this world has seldom seen.
Who talk of days for which they sit and wait
When all will be revealed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_6M254L0XU
WHY ELITE whitey (((supertard))) president Alice wont come back unless the forum is censored in her favor on Sun, 19th Jan 2025 7:33 am
i appoint all elite supertard presidents supertard, their title is
‘the lover’
of supremacist muzzies
Jean lapierre on Tue, 21st Jan 2025 2:06 am
monkey man = animal = sexual reproduction
Everything that reproduces using sex is classified as animals. There is no such thing as human rights because there is no humans on earth only animals. Ancients understood that very well. Earth is refuge for animals, therefore a savior will not be given to animals or humans as you like to call yourself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mwCmlaupkY
Yves laperfume on Tue, 21st Jan 2025 2:29 am
The ancient understood that really well. They knew there was a difference between higher beings and lowers beings.
The lower beings or animals reproduce using sex.
The higher beings are created and have a creator.
They knew that human are animals.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coat_of_arms_of_Canada
This is why they are comfortable using animals on nations coat of arms. Animals have never been given a savior in the past and it will not start now.
graham bell on Tue, 21st Jan 2025 2:54 am
Humans dig the ground to find natural ressources, a bear dig the ground to build a shelter. Everything that digs the ground in order to survive is an animal. Humans are indeed animals. Animals are not allowed to leave earth under no circumstances.
alain leduc on Tue, 21st Jan 2025 3:07 am
Animals specie has the following characteristics:
-reproduce using sex
-dig the ground for survival
-smell bad
-had a low IQ
-defecate and urinate
-fight to acquire new lands, Israel
-amoral, incapable of understand morality
-worship their flesh body, see clothing and hair cut
Jean lacasse on Tue, 21st Jan 2025 10:59 am
I am not here to help humans, stop migrants invasion. I am here to kill all the humans living on earth, this is why I demanded the death of all trees on earth, to kill all humans living on earth. Humans smell so bad, like all animals do.
Regis lebaume on Tue, 21st Jan 2025 11:56 am
The numbers of comments I am writing will continue to decrease and will eventually stop. I am currently in the process of detaching my self emotionally from earth animals, including humans and earth itself. I want nothing to do with all of you.
WHY elite whitey (((supertard))) president Alice wants to CILL (sic, control or kill) us she doesnt love us on Wed, 22nd Jan 2025 1:01 pm
she only loves supremacist muzzies
SHE is a lover of supremacist muzzies
WHY elite whitey (((supertard))) president Alice wants to CILL (sic, control or kill) us she doesnt love us on Wed, 22nd Jan 2025 5:57 pm
SHE only loves supremacist muzzies
SHE doesn’t love us
SHE is a lover of supremacist muzzies