It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Isavbelle jean on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 11:05 am
Fucking great lyric, the whole album.
Cold air don’t bite like is used to at 36.20
People called it loneliness
I called peace I can afford 37:39
Fucking great lyrics all over the place, that only death could understand.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH_tXRRM9jo
As me being death, I prefer to roam alone. Life(woman) and peace can go fuck themself.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 11:07 am
Kill the Jews, the French and the British if you want to live.
Signed Denis Trudel owner of the earth.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 11:11 am
Rust don’t sleep either do I. 42:16
Fucking great lyrics that is what death would say: Rust don’t sleep either do I.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH_tXRRM9jo
Kill the Jews, the French and the British if you want to live.
Signed Denis Trudel owner of the earth.
Isabvell jean on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 11:17 am
Kill the Canadians, I never like them anyway including the Quebecers. Death will come for them also after I am done killing the Jews, the French and the British.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tduHQrPyS4g
marint jean on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 11:25 am
Fucking great lyrics.
Smoke where the light should be. 54:31
Meaning destruction where life used to live. Meaning destruction of cities and death of people living in them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tduHQrPyS4g
The album must have been written by death himself to have such great lyrics.
Regils Trudelle on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 11:31 am
Fucking great guitar and lyrics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tduHQrPyS4g
Marcu rudelle on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 11:35 am
Why is this Jewish on TV is still alive. I told you to kill all the Jews, French and British. You want to live or die.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftz6I79v_zQ
Isabelle jeean on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 11:46 am
I have to gather more death from the universe and transferred inside my body so I can be more power and a better killer. I have to go to bed and sleep.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 11:48 am
I have to gather more death from the universe and transferred it inside my body so I can be more powerful and a better killer. I have to go to bed and sleep.
Signed Denis Trudel owner of the earth.
marc Lepage on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 11:54 am
Before going to bed, I will cut a plastic sheet and use it to isolate better a window inside my house. It will be a cold and long winter. Some streets might not be plowed during this winter.
Death has to work if death wants to kill people.
Elaine James on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 11:58 am
It is ok, I don’t need help to kill. Death works alone and kills alone. Thanks anyway. You can kill on your own, I would not try to stop you, but death works alone. Good hunting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWV0Ja_hlsg
Isabelle deathe on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 6:15 pm
My Arduino temperature project show me a outside temperature of 8 Celsius. Death sees death including death by humidity or flooding,
Just came out from the dépanneur, the humidity is surrounding us, like death surrendered dead cadavers.
humidity is so high that that it is feel like a layer of cold air surrounding you ready to kill you at anytime.
Death sees death in any forms possibles, rust, rotten woods, humidity all things that death sees in a dying world.
Where are the dead cadavers I demanded, where are the Jewish, French and British cadaver I demanded.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 6:42 pm
The guy in the video knows that death is roaming earth. He can feel it. Look at him trying to convince us that earth is the paradise, not a reality based around death as a cohesive element. Trying to convince us that earth is heaven and is built around the concept of life not death. Death knows death, this is why death roams earth, because death sees death and death sees plenty of death on earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvjcJsy51oc
I demanded cadavers, where are they?
Denis Trudel on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 6:47 pm
Look at him trying to convince us that we can build heaven on earth. Look at him trying to convince us that we can build heaven among death (earth) if we surrender to the power of AI.
I am death, I have seen death, and I know you cannot build heaven around death, earth is death and building life around death is not possible
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvjcJsy51oc
I demanded cadavers, as I am death and I own earth.
Signed Denis Trudel the owner of earth.
Isabelle jean on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 7:02 pm
If you want to see something truly exceptional, prepare a protection bubble for the chosen ones with the toys I asked. Watch them reboot the same reality without making any substantial changes. I advice you to keep chosen ones on earth inside a protection bubble, it will be a learning experience.
Marie Jean on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 7:23 pm
This is so funny on so many level. Death trying to keep death alive. Death (rust, rotten wooden, plastic turning brittle because of time, copper turning green because of time) trying to stay alive in a dying world.
People with no IQ have no idea how this whole situation is funny.
Isavelle jean on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 7:32 pm
Keep asking me about the boats. Yes boast should be among toys made available to the chosen ones. Bigger the pickup is better it is. There will be nobody left on earth except the chosen ones, size of the toys to roam through asphalts roads does not matter.
Jean lamarre on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 7:44 pm
This is funny as fuck, they put a hitch at 7:20 in the back. I will take all the toys you can give me. Watch these fucking losers reboot the same reality with almost no changes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKd3NvZl164
alain lamare on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 7:59 pm
He has his rear lockers on, this is why he cannot turn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bs9R0xRVUxI
Yellen jamal on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 8:06 pm
1:01 this is why they need rear differential lockers on the rear wheels. Earth is such a shitty place. Watch them reboot the same crappy reality with a new population.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NokwepgrlpM
Alain lemire on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 8:09 pm
He has his rear wheels lockers on, he cannot turn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkzrNzPaVrU
Alain truedeau on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 8:31 pm
I have a theory but I am unable to check it. It rain so much during the last big flood that it turn the soil in the forest in a swap.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K25W_gRxGCI
bertand jean on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 8:35 pm
This is what you would see after a big flood, swamp everywhere where the water evaporation is low such as forests. See at 2:24
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K25W_gRxGCI
Lalime retraded on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 8:54 pm
It is pretty obvious that these are machine designed to deal with mud, they are not designed for asphalts open roads.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASiCfQEDLuM
Alain Bendrone on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 9:04 pm
Another mud machine. the big flood also raised the underground water level creating more swamps.
The next big flood will kill everyone on earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GKco73fE_k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EYd3f1njgI
alian lapierre on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 9:09 pm
So obvious there were a big floods. It raised the water lever of the oceans and also raised the water lever of the underground water table creating more swamps. I would not be surprised to learn that there is an hybrid aquatic human that can swim under water for a long period of time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lyXZpgoC1w
Yellen Jamal on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 9:14 pm
Mud vehicle. I have a feeling that another big flood is coming, it is really humid out there.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/B_IFlTsjXfw
I will assume these are real images, not fake CGI.
Denis Trudellle on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 9:16 pm
Just for your information
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-Ml9KKEz18
Isavelle jean on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 9:33 pm
7:35 looks like the kind of shit you would see in a movie like waterworld.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3QbvXSCAfw
Mariane laplante on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 9:39 pm
Look at the color of the river brown. This is soil being moved around by water from one location of another location.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TArTRQCS3XA
Madid Japon on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 9:44 pm
This is the kind of shit you would build after a big flood. Easy to build, maintain and operate.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/w6kFmZXd3nM
alina maria on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 9:53 pm
25:20 the forest was flooded also.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JECDWRnmxY0
Must have been a big flood. Must have rained for a whole year none stop.
Isabelle marie on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 10:00 pm
It has been designed to transport cargo without the need to build a dock for loading and unloading. This is what you would build as emergency ferry after a big flood.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZounZjb0fY
Denis Laforge on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 10:19 pm
Another emergency ferry. No need of docks for load and unloading.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPeS97wzOWY
Alain lemire on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 10:30 pm
Emergency ferry. They did not bother to build a concrete slab, the just build a cheap steel ramp.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn8TaRHbR9Q
Flood must have happen, I would say, within the last 100 year. Everything is a fucking lie.
Isabelle Jean on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 10:38 pm
the tech we did not invent, but was given to us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hWBFt1coHM
Alain deline on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 10:40 pm
I stand by almost all the comments I have written. I also believe they will have to reboot because earth is built around death as a cohesive element.
Jean trudeau on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 10:49 pm
what is this a cargo ship. This is unloading a truck from a cargo ship where there is no dock.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4_diP1tLno
They came from North not from wooden boats from Europe. Whites Americans have no real connection with the Europeans. They European men are too feminized compare to the Whites of North America.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 10:53 pm
I simply don’t like the Jews and the Europeans. I have a deep hatred for both of them.
Isabelle Jean on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 11:37 pm
Lately I like to have my skin wet with water. I take long shower and I like to put my head under the kitchen faucet and open the faucet to the max.
A big flood coming would not surprised my at all. I can not stand the fucking Jews and Europeans. I secret fantasied about exterminating all of them. I feel guilty that I was not able to exterminate both of them completely. My relationship with water has changed in the last 6 months.
Msrie Jerime on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 11:57 pm
For your information
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QcRb_hw4g4
Isabelle Jean on Sat, 11th Oct 2025 12:03 am
All wheel drives with lockers on all differentials. Mud truck.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBbJilx2T_8
Liline Liame on Sat, 11th Oct 2025 12:20 am
Here you go, your mud trucks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u464fVCA-uI
The underground water table was raised during the last flood creating swamp like mud conditions.
Isasbelle Jean on Sat, 11th Oct 2025 12:35 am
If I go there this is what I will see with my own eyes. This is not CGI at all. Look like the underground water table was raised up to 2 feet below the ground by the last flood.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Ne5Zl5Oswg
Elain marile on Sat, 11th Oct 2025 12:38 am
Is the sump pump in their basement working all the time. I would bet it is the case.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Ne5Zl5Oswg
Natalie Jean on Sat, 11th Oct 2025 1:17 am
We live on top of the mountains of the old world. The valley of the old world have been flooded.
Alain Gendron on Sat, 11th Oct 2025 1:28 am
We live on top of the mountains of the old world. The valley of the old world have been flooded.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=005nwTohdN4
See what I mean here.
alain gendron on Sat, 11th Oct 2025 1:34 am
We live on top of the mountains of the old world. The valleys of the old world have been flooded. See what I mean here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXGRHztOwcY
Isabelle jean on Sat, 11th Oct 2025 1:35 am
Atlantis has been flooded. Of if you will the valleys of the old world have been flooded.
Denis Trudel on Sat, 11th Oct 2025 1:40 am
Atlantis has been flooded. Of if you will the valleys of the old world have been flooded. You get the idea now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1yUQwpNhJA