It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
alain lamire on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 8:57 am
lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0-N_-uE22w
alain arie on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 9:16 am
2:01
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3BzJ-O_1V4
Marie jean on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 9:42 am
The thick winter tuque in a desert environment. Nobody would do that in real life. See at 0:38.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEMwYLxW1vI
Jean lemarre on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 9:59 am
1:11 the fat boy with sun glass3s taking a picture of himself with brand new shiny phone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvCbhM9Qm-w
Denis Jamal on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 10:33 am
I am still surprised we are not all dead yet, considering how everything is crappy on earth including how the power mechanical transmission systems (gear, clutch pack, engine, transmission) on cars and trucks are designed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xA56pSEdKUE
This is why I was preparing to the end of earth and I was asking what would happen to me: death, extraction or a protection bubble to watch reset as mentioned in revelation 21.
Isavelle james on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 11:49 am
The thermal efficient of electronics component is simply too low and they generate too much heat. Everything about earth is shit, see above. Everyone will die on earth, it is guaranteed. What will happen after that is the interesting part. Will they reboot the same earth with the same mathematical models, will they make modifications to earth mathematical models, or maybe they will not reboot all. Revelation 21 is telling us that they will most likely going to reboot.
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/could-ais-growing-thirst-water-usher-localized-resources-wars
This is why I was preparing to the end of earth and I was asking what would happen to me: death, extraction or a protection bubble to watch reset as mentioned in revelation 21. This is why I had a list of toys to patrol the territory.
Alain Leblanc on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 12:06 pm
Earth is such a fucking crappy shit hole. Human voice on a cell phone sounds metallic and distorted. Old phone used to work better and the voice was way better.
Earth is a fucking crappy shit hole that is built upon the slavery of hard manual labor. See below. Such a reality has no fucking future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iI2OaOUFo0
Jeamen marie on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 12:32 pm
People don’t fix their own car. They won’t understand the deeper meaning of this video. Earth is such a shit reality and human are slave labor. I love the sarcastic tone of inside the video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBGgiQ3rUps
Denis Jean on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 1:00 pm
I love these ones, I don’t know why. They look like a bunch of slackers that took the job because they needed the money, but they don’t make any efforts to really kill the enemy. They are faking it to get the pay check. Exactly like in real life. I identify to a deep level with slackers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtEwREx6s4I
Natale Jean on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 1:21 pm
They look and behave like slackers. Just there for the money and they don’t care about the quality of the job. I can identify with that. I never care about the quality of my work when I was working. Wasting bullets left and right and draining the financial ressources of the army and government.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kso5BDJ-nGk
Alain jean on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 6:06 pm
Typical high end sexual escort specialized in pedophile and daddy-daughter sexual fantaisies.
See at 8:37. She is around 23 year old but look like a 12 year old teenage girl.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wWLnCVva6c
Denis rudel on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 6:24 pm
It feels like it is Friday. It feels like the time moved forward by 2 days.
Isavelle jean on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 6:45 pm
The time does not move forward. Earth has a entropic degradation backward clock. Earth is a reality based on death as a cohesive element. Time moving forward really means that more death happened that is equal to 2 days of our time moving forward.
Ulaine Jelis on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 6:49 pm
I am not talking about humans death only. death of everything, steel has rust faster the last 2 days, trees have died faster the last 2 days, wood has rotten faster the last 2 days.
Understand that earth is a reality designed around the concept of death, not around the concept life. Earth reality is going backward not forward in time. This is why you have to reset as per revelation 21 because time goes backward.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 6:58 pm
I really need money so I can buy unreliable new cars and drive around. If I am being extracted out of earth, I probably don’t need money since I won’t be on earth eternally.
alain lemdire on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 7:01 pm
Instead of saying that time moved forward by 2 days, I should have written that death moved forward by 2 days. A car would be nice so I can drive around and check my hypothesis.
Isavelel gavin on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 7:32 pm
I love these, they are so funny if you have to IQ needed to see where the jokes are. Allah akbar, allay akbar
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6SOmPO-LD4
Denis Trudel on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 7:54 pm
They hate it when the financial system give you money for free, they don’t mind it if the financial system steal money from you, but they don’t want people getting free money from the financial system.
They don’t like it when a credit card mistake happen and it benefits the owner of the credit card instead of benefitting the seller (big corporation). We are supposed to pay into the system, we are not supposed to extract free money out of the financial system. You know what I mean.
Alain jean on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 8:11 pm
I am not talking about investing in the stock market because you have to put your own money in it to get something out of it.
I am talking about contributing nothing to the financial system and extract free money out of it. Earth is a slavery system, extracting free money out of the financial system means that someone is able to by pass earth slavery system and use earth slavery system for his own benefit. This is a no go for them. This is why the created financial laws to stop people from extracting free money out of the financial system. They created financial laws to protect slavery system that the love so much. The slavery system or the financial system if you will, must be protected at any cost against people extracting free money out of it and no being punished for that.
I think you know where I am going with that.
Denis trudel on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 8:39 pm
They are so many problems with earth reality, I still don’t understand why we are still alive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SG3euq463Gw
Piece of shit head gasket and silicon.
Thermal dilatation and contraction is a big issue. It causes premature wear and tear of any parts that are subject to any kind of heat cycle. On top of thermal dilatation and contraction, add entropic degradation caused by time or death if you will. No wonder why ICE engines and transmission don’t last.
This is what happen when you build a reality based on a matrix of solid only modifiable by heat and hold together by gravity and friction.
It is guaranteed that everyone will die on earth. What happen after that will the interesting part.
Isavelle jean on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 8:44 pm
It feels like Friday. Something is off regarding time.
Isabelle jean on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 11:35 pm
Hunting the Jews to death. Where ever they were going we were right behind them and tracking them. Where ever we went, we left a trail of dead jews behind us. Remembered this as the best part of my life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pG2aljzW-T8&list=RDpG2aljzW-T8&start_radio=1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_w2Jbhpj7M&list=RD6_w2Jbhpj7M&start_radio=1
You want to know how many women and kids I have killed. You want to know what they called me in the underworld. How many reboot I have seen and how many death cadaver I have walked over. Maybe I will tell you one day.
Denis tùrudel on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 11:43 pm
Earth is a reality based around the concept of dead, it has not been built around the concept of peace or life. I have explain that in previous comments. Some chosen ones will be given the opportunity of seeing the cadavers of earth populations laying on the ground.
Daniel maarie on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 12:17 am
Death and life roaming earth together. She is young, pretty and fertile, she represents life. He is dead, old, ugly and covert with dust, he represent death.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOB08yVSqM4
Alain jarry on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 1:01 am
Bride of the lamb and death roaming earth after the death of everyone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOB08yVSqM4
Denis Trudel on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 1:27 am
I cannot figure out if CNN believe its own bullshit or they are mocking us. You never know with retarded people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqjlV8-b-wU
She looks nervous, agitated and afraid. You can see the fear in her facials expressions.
Yellen Jaime on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 1:34 am
1:54 watch her mouth. She has having troubles. I cannot figure out if this is real, fake or they are mocking us. Her facial expressions are those of someone who fear for her life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqjlV8-b-wU
Denis Trudel on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 1:44 am
Death is already here. The future is already written. This is death and life roaming the earth after the international supply chain failed. Roaming earth inside a semi trailer truck that is the symbol of globalism on wheels.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOB08yVSqM4
Helene Jean on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 2:30 am
Nobody seems to be able to give a definition of who is the lamb. Lamb is death. Death has a bride with who he roams earth.
Death is already here. The future is already written. This is death and life roaming the earth after the international supply chain failed. Roaming earth inside a semi trailer truck that is the symbol of globalism on wheels.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOB08yVSqM4
Alain Jarette on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 2:38 am
Death is the sacrificial lamb. Death was unable to obtain permanent real death and was condemned to live for ever. They gave him a bride.
Death inside a reality built around the concept of death cannot die. He is eternal. they gave him a bride as companion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOB08yVSqM4
Marie Jean on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 3:53 am
1:06 it is the face of a green alien.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7A5mzFOMR8
Isabelle marionette on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 4:00 am
I mean grey alien at 1:06.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7A5mzFOMR8
Denis Trudel on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 3:12 pm
The man who walks alone. This is me roaming earth alone and walking over the cadavers on earth population. How many reboots have I seen? How many Jews did I kill? How many women did I kill? How many babies and kids did I kill? How many crusade against the Jews I ran? I know that I might not know the answer to these questions.
Who am I and where have I been before being born on earth?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH_tXRRM9jo
Denis Trudel on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 3:21 pm
When I start to hate, I hate forever. Just ask the Jews.
At 10:37.
But forgiveness don’t live here
Not in me
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH_tXRRM9jo
Isabelle jean on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 3:27 pm
This video was made a day ago.
The Man Who Walks Alone – Dark Country Music Playlist
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH_tXRRM9jo
The video was made a day ago, as death is coming closer and closer to earth, closer to kill everyone on earth. Do you see death in the price of sliver and copper? I sure can see death everywhere around me, everywhere my eyes look at.
Does death like walking alone or walking with life while roaming earth after the death of everyone. Maybe death like both, he roams alone and sometime he roams with life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=co9R_-Gui6Q
Jean Merci on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 3:37 pm
22:25 I used to bow my head for peace.
Might have done it in the past, but I prefer permanent hatred, just ask the Jews. I find lifetime hatred as much more rewarding in the long run. It create a much more fulfilling live. After all we live in the real of death, where earth reality is build arond the cohesive element of death.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH_tXRRM9jo
Denis Trudel on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 3:41 pm
Never take away the weapons of a warrior using such BS as Canada firearms laws. You never know what you will unleash up yourself.
Salope Trump on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 3:47 pm
Tu envoies that crisse te salope a Trump en Israel. Tu l’envoie sucer de la graine de juif, boire de la pisse de juif and manger de la marde de juif. La grosse pute a Trump qui est en adoration total pour tout ce qui est juif, incluant leur pisse, leur marde.
Inquiète toi pas, ca va règle tous tes problèmes d’envoyer la salope a Trump en Israel. Le gravity va s’effrondre, les voitures vont arrêter de rouiller, les puits de pétroles vous se remplir. Ton plan est absolument genial d’envoyer ta salope a Trump en Israel, je suis certain que ca va donner des résultats concrete. Envoyer le salope a Trump en Israel va arrêter la marche de la mort vers la terre et sauver la population de la terre. Je suis certain de ca.
Isabelle Jean on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 3:48 pm
Tu envoies that crisse te salope a Trump en Israel. Tu l’envoie sucer de la graine de juif, boire de la pisse de juif and manger de la marde de juif. La grosse pute a Trump qui est en adoration total pour tout ce qui est juif, incluant leur pisse, leur marde.
Inquiète toi pas, ca va règle tous tes problèmes d’envoyer la salope a Trump en Israel. Le gravity va s’effrondre, les voitures vont arrêter de rouiller, les puits de pétroles vous se remplir. Ton plan est absolument genial d’envoyer ta salope a Trump en Israel, je suis certain que ca va donner des résultats concrete. Envoyer le salope a Trump en Israel va arrêter la marche de la mort vers la terre et sauver la population de la terre. Je suis certain de ca.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjKHrp8gUZQ
Trembale isavelle on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 4:26 pm
Earth is the realm of death. If you want to live inside the realm of peace or life, go build for yourself a realm a peace a go live there. Earth is the realm of death and it will stay that way.
There is also a sexual realm only accessible to certain person. Porn videos will tell you what is inside the sexual realm.
If women are not mentally equipped to live inside the realm of death(earth) well they can just go fuck thèse and die. The realm of death will stay alive and will not be polluted by women fear and their stupidity.
If women want a realm based on life and security, they just have to build for themself a realm around that and go live there. The realm of death stay there and stay alive.
Cecile Jean on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 4:49 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NamoYl-R25I
Trump est just une merde pathetic qui aiment manger de la marde de juif and boire de la pisse juif. On devrait le tuer lui pis sa crisse de famille de merde. Trump c’est juste une merde insecure que mérite qu’on le tue.
Denis Trudelt on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 5:09 pm
Ca fait depuis ma naissance que je suis impliqué dans cette merde et je ne vois toujours pas de résultats sur quoi que ce soit: gravité tient, le mode chimique tient, le model thermique tient, le calculator de degradation entropique tient. A un moment donne il faut que tu produises des calisses de résultats.
Depuis ma crisse de naissance que je suis implique la-dedans pis je vois toujours aucun tabernacle de résultats sur quoi que ce soit. Il Y a des osties de limites a tout tabernacle.
Isavele lanthier on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 8:48 pm
I have unfinished business. I have people to kill. After that the warrior will exit.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 9:02 pm
Wherever the Jews go I follow them. I came here on earth to kill them and exterminate all of them. This is what I do, I follow them everywhere they go and purge them out. I will also purge the French and the British out while I am here.
Isabelle jean on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 9:21 pm
Death and life married together. Same as black and white are married together. Same as up and down are married together.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_w2Jbhpj7M&list=RD6_w2Jbhpj7M&start_radio=1
Yellne Jean on Thu, 9th Oct 2025 9:22 pm
I have unfinished business if I cannot purge out of earth the Jews, French and British, I will kill everyone on earth.
Isasvell levasseurlea on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 2:21 am
Fondamentalement, vous êtes des trous de cul incapable de sortir des résultats dans quelque domaine que ce soit. Vous êtes des merdes insignifiantes incapable de runner quoi que ce soit correctement. Vous êtes a l’image de cette opération, des échecs.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 3:21 am
Fondamentalement, vous êtes des trous de cul incapable de sortir des résultats dans quelque domaine que ce soit: remplir les puits de pétrole, améliorer l’efficacité des moteurs a combustion, améliorer l’efficacité thermique des composantes électroniques, incapable d’arrêter l’immigration de masse, incapable de libérer les gens de leur corps de chair. Je déteste travailler avec des trous du cul dans votre genre.
Vous êtes des merdes insignifiantes incapable de runner quoi que ce soit correctement. Vous êtes a l’image de cette opération, des échecs.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 9:11 am
Either the planet earth kill for me all the Jews, French and British people of this world, or I kill everyone on earth. Your choice.
Denis trudel on Fri, 10th Oct 2025 9:20 am
Either the planet earth kill for me all the Jews, French and British people of this world, or I kill everyone on earth. Your choice.
Early Season Cold Sweeps Thailand, China, India — And Beyond; Western Energy Back On Track?; + Solar Wind Stream Incoming
Signed Denis Trudel owner of Earth