It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Jean marie on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 10:19 am
Peak silver production happened around February 2024 when it was price at about $23. This is where the price started to move upward in an exponential fashion. This is according to MarketWatch 3 year graph.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/si00
Denis Trudel on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 10:30 am
Bring the fucking Carney British whore, his ugly wife and Carne chin moved forward. I see that as an act of desperation, they probably also thing it is an act of desperation from losers that have no control on anything other the producing fucking fake videos. I will kill you for daring to bring me down on earth. I will kill you for being such a pathetic loser. I will kill you for not sending me money, I will kill you for all the datas that we lost because I was not rich enough to buy a car. I will set this piece of shit earth of fire just for insulting me. I will kill everyone living on earth just because of Canada firearms laws and Carney.
Isabelle Jean on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 10:35 am
Bring your fucking Carney whore as if it will make a difference and stop steel from rusting. do you have anything better fucking losers to collapse earth reality other then Carney.
Come on, fucking whore, roll the show, show to me and them how powerful you are by showing us Carney and Trump together.
Show to me how powerful you are.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_83-Q4VawQ
Graham simpsonsi on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 10:42 am
I am upset, but it is nothing compare to how upset they are about the whole situation. If you think I am the only one upset at the current situation you are making a mistake. I can connect myself directly to the whole consciousness of the universe, they are even more upset than I am. They are going to kill everything including the invisible beings. Eveything will be flushed down the drain.
Isabelle Marquis on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 11:15 am
It is working the meeting between Trump and Carney. I am leaving my flesh body, my neighbors are also leaving their flesh bodies. Gravity is gone and I am floating in the air. It is working more of it. Please continue, we are getting good results out of this,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_83-Q4VawQ
Wellen Jean on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 2:04 pm
Encore les Osties de Français sale d’Europe qui foutent la marde partout ou ils vont. Pareil pour les crisses de Britannique sale de câlisse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI1flmnYrUs&t=11s
See at 7:10.
Regis Levaume on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 2:31 pm
Hey the meeting between Trump and Carney worked. I don’t need to shave my face anymore, all my body hair is gone and I think I will leave my flesh body really soon. I also think that time changed and the entropic backward degradation clock stopped and steel stop rusting. Call another meeting between Trump and Carney, I think will get it right this time, the human will finally be liberated out of their flesh body and steel will stop to rust. Please call another meeting between Trump and Carney, I think we are almost there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0RMyce6gk8
Denis Trudel on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 3:12 pm
Piece of shit CB and hand radio, too much distortion you don’t hear anything. Dress in black in the desert, nobody intelligent would do that. Chest harness is too thick and act as an isolation layer. You transpired in it an become really warm. You will dehydrate yourself wearing such clothing.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/5f_rnKXHzrE
Isasvbelle jean on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 4:32 pm
Continue ca marche ben ce que tu fais. Plus de mains bizzares, plus the long cous, plus de drole d’oreille and plus d’apparition de Carney a la tele. Ca marche ce que tu fais. Continue comme ca, je suis presque sur le bord de sortir de mon corps de chair, l’acier a arrete de rouiller et le bois a arrete de pourrir.
Continue tu es sur la bonne voie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKfiKxd1_jw
Continue je vois la realite s’effrondre en avant de moi. Continue tu es l’homme de la situation.
Denis TRUDEL on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 5:07 pm
Prend ta crisse de salope a Carney pis envois la en Belgique rencontrer le premier ministre. Je suis certain que ca va donner des resultale incroyable. le ciel va tourner noir, les moteurs a combustion vont runner a 100% d’efficacité, pu besoin de radiateurs pour refroidir les moteurs. Envoie ta salope a Carney en Belgique, chu certain que ca va collapser la realité terrestre. Continue j’aime les resultga qu’on obtient grace a ton intelligence supérieur.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKfiKxd1_jw
Isavell Jean on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 5:20 pm
Asians always have original stuff compare to the whites people. White people are fucking loser with no soul
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETkpQQBqxaI
Denis Trudel on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 5:27 pm
Icitte au Canada tout ce qu’on a le droit c’est la crisse de salope laide a Carney avec son criss de menton avance. Les Asiatic on un meilleur sense de l’humour compare a la crisse de race blanche minable sans âmes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETkpQQBqxaI
Jean lemdire on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 5:37 pm
Look at how boring and unimaginative that shit is
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDfedTTh1OE
compare to what the Asians are producing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETkpQQBqxaI
Fucking low IQ pathetic soulless white race.
Alain Gendro on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 5:43 pm
This is typical of white people and the Jews, producing boring unimaginative stuff that nobody watches, such as GutFeld. Soulles race whites and Jews are.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Zape1CokT4
This is much more funny and imaginative.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETkpQQBqxaI
Isabelle Tremblay on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 5:52 pm
Go watch the Chinese stuff made by the Chinese for the Chinese market. You will see what I mean by imagination, and then you will see as I saw that Whites people are soulless loser with no IQ. If I was rich enough, I would have already left Canada for Asia. I would I have bought a Asian citizenship using money.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETkpQQBqxaI
Isabelle Jean on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 6:31 pm
I know it will never happen, if you ever give me money I leave permanently Canada for Asia. Make sure you understand that.
Denis Frudel on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 6:51 pm
You would never see something like that in Asian or even Africa. People there understand that we are seeing here is a man humiliating in self in public. Asian and African have too much pride and would no humiliate themself this way.
Manson understood that also about White people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhdMTNvzo6E
Asians understand what the flesh body is and the sexuality is something coming with the flesh body. So they go along with it and accepted sexuality as something unavoidable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahDDqxp_rEg
Jean marre on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 6:55 pm
These are two men humiliating themself in public. You would never see that in Asia or Africa, only in the western world you would see such pathetic display of self humiliation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPj_kypnvv0
Isabelle marre on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 7:24 pm
Whites people are known to be losers with low social skill intelligence. So I don’t expect Whites people to be able to relate to my comment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDfedTTh1OE
For normal people that have social IQ, they understand very well that this is two low IQ beta male humiliating themself in public for attention and validation. They understand how pathetic these people are and they want to throw up when they look at them. This goes for Maher, Colbert, Kimmel. People with a social IQ understand that these men are humiliating themself in public for money.
I will give you one of my prediction. Everyone on earth will die, except the chosen ones that might be given a chance to see everything including the death cadavers on the ground after the international supply chain stopped.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 7:35 pm
In the old days, we would usually kill these kind of men that humiliate themself in public like that. We do that in order to keep alive only the masculine man and to ensure a proper and strong lineage of masculine men. Earth is such a failed expérimenta on some many levels.
In the old days, all the men in the room would have been killed on the spot.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8_pXpRKaxQ
Isabelle Jean on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 7:39 pm
It is called masculine lineage maintenance. It was done by the King on a regular basis. I understand why these invisible beings are upset each time they see Carney. They are going to flush the whole planet down the drain. Never saw such a failure as planet earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8_pXpRKaxQ
Helene marianne on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 7:53 pm
There is also an feminine lineage maintenance protocol. I don’t remember what it was. Only the females big and strong enough to raise their babies alone would survive. All the other female would be killed.
Manson talk about women being able to give birth alone on their own. This is what he was talking about, the old female lineage that is gone now.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 8:01 pm
The old female lineage look something like that below. Some of them would rape men and force men to impregnate them. Then they would leave.
Not the weak skinny women good for nothing that we have now. This is what Manson was talking about. He saw it also.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/YKfKxSgqrWE
Yellen Jean on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 8:40 pm
Men would get raped if the refuse to impregnate.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/mwh0101-storm-terror-in-leather-xhEsNeW
Allain lamaireo on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 8:59 pm
Chinese stuff is much more entertaining and original compare to what the west produces. Whites are losers without a soul. This is becoming more and more obvious to me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUEKae-aW-U
Denis Trudel on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 10:15 pm
Revelation 21 :A New Heaven and a New Earth
It is not a new earth, it is the same earth rebooted. They run a reality based on death as a cohesion element. They reboot the same reality over and over.
Time is a flat circle as Rust Cohle said in True detective.
This is why I said, if you want the true you will need to keep some chosen ones on earth after the dead of everyone. You will need to provide them toys to patrol the territory.
You will have to provide upgraded toys with eternal ICE engine requiring no maintenance an eternal pickup truck that cannot rust, or die in anyway and run an magic diesel or gazoline.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xghb35O7COk
Alain Jean on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 10:20 pm
If you are going to keep chosen ones alone on earth. Go for the best.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhEOq8yrkHk
Isabelle jean on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 10:39 pm
You keep asking about the boats. I don’t know. Yes some boats would be nice but I don’t know the size. I am not familiar with boats. Some king of boats to patrol the coast, would be a good idea I guess.
Jamale Jean on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 10:43 pm
I got a question for you, why I urinate so much. You don’t know. I would like to know. Is it an upgraded flesh body that does not required water. Is is because dimensional travel required a body that contain no water.
You agree with me, with people are losers without a soul. Yes, it is getting pretty obvious at this point.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 10:49 pm
You agree with me, Whites people are losers without a soul. Yes, it is getting pretty obvious at this point. Do you have an invisible doctor I can speak too. I would like more detail.
Jean Marchand on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 10:58 pm
Is there a invisible doctor I can speak to. You stupid piece of shit don’t make my life easy. What about water and why I like to put my head under the faucet of the kitchen sink. You don’t know. So I am alone again without any help or info from anyone.
Denis Jean on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 11:09 pm
Did she fuck all the guy working in the building. She looks like the kind of girl that would like that. You guys are doing it gang bang style on her. She looks like the kind of whore that wants to be filled up with sperm.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oq5vW3KKqsU
Alan poe on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 11:34 pm
How does the sex thing works with the 3 girls. Can I get in on the deal. I can dump my superior load or sperm and all of them and repeat until they are pregnant with my superior sperm and bird superiors babies.
See at 2:33
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NS1sxUlVDYY
Alain marcotte on Tue, 7th Oct 2025 11:54 pm
Wearing yellow tape on their helmet to help the enemy target them better. The Asian have a way better and superior IQ compare to whites people and a more sophisticated sense of humor. They produce better videos with more original content. Whites people are low IQ loser without a soul. So fucking obvious to me as time goes by.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUSfchVMaI8
Isabelle Jean on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 12:49 am
I understand it is a big truck. But it is the right size for the chosen ones that might stay on earth during the reboot. Remember they will be alone on earth during the reboot, space won’t be an issue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWcVlVEmTHM
Bertrand Maritime on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 1:16 am
Is there any ways I can speak to my invisible creator or doctor. I am on my own as always.
WOW I really love this.
Helne amrie on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 1:18 am
DO I get an extraction out of earth or I am staying here to see the reboot. You could at least answer this one fucking cock sucker. Can even not answer basic question, stupid piece of shit.
Denis trudel on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 1:23 am
That is your answer an extraction out of earth. Can I get a confirmation of this.
Isabelle Jean on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 3:05 am
Nobody is reading me but I will put it here anyway. I have a 30 Mbs internet connection. When I run a speed test, I get the following results:
download 33.50 Mbs
upload 11.07 Mbs
So I will let you come up with your own conclusion. This is why I asked if I will stay on earth after the death of everyone to see the reboot. Anybody in my situation would have asked himself this question. Apparently I don’t need money because I will be extracted out of earth.
Isabelle Lanthier on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 4:28 am
C’est fascinant ce que vous avez été capable d’accomplir avec le meeting Trump Carney. Spécialement le menton avancé de Carney grace a ce meeting avec la salope Britannique a Carney vous avez complement changer la reality terrestre. La gravity a changer, la table periodic chemique a été réécrite pour include une nouvelles série d’element chimiques modifiable par électromagnétisme au lieu de la chaleur.
Vous avez aussi réussi a effondrer l’algorithm de degradation entropic de l’acier. Les chars et les camions vont arrête de rouiller and vont durer 2 fois plus longtemps. Ouah, tout ca just a cause du menton avancé de Carney.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJpxbNDFmus
Vous avez aussi réussi a changer l’algorithm d’humidité de la terre avec le meeting Trump-Carney. calisse que vous performez,
jeane marche on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 7:52 am
Ca marche ce que tufais, Tye es un geini, canry rumpe, long cou, one a fimanimedest ruesrlt.
barone
Denis Trudel on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 7:55 am
si tule leassiie les cirse de francaie sale sorite de leyr pay, ilf cont vouts runimer.
Isavbel gay on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 7:56 am
j’ecire ne language coer c,est atoi de dehiffrie
alaind mdie on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 8:00 am
sfe fe qlq sloppe ce siate vaiser bpur tout les voisin, ce que cq vourdaid davoir
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwLhglta7pE
alaind jean on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 8:02 am
criid de slapoe ruropean, partout ou ilf vont if fuatte la mae, ce cons.
je pisse and chie fur carnery and trmp, ou sont les resutle demanded. je me pose laquest.
Denis tedeoe on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 8:11 am
The icndoue price of silvie will shut gloalime and inernaite matnufatoe, peope of the earTH SHOULD preoape themes do tie
idale jean on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 8:17 am
tehe carney effecti is working. i am lieavin my flesh body and my inftekig has incrae, really soon i wout nbe on earth and i will sgaratnot adyve.
mai ne kdiue on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 8:19 am
je aidme a mon deidne invislel quee nourite mane, je pap ue sud erposne. jaime les jububle mai je sai pas se die en mange onpja. jeameiane lanagoange code gaafoe on lapto keubor.d
laind lamairee on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 8:23 am
aaim commande des hipa parce que ca me fait roner. je ase d emedicen infivaile. sje ne said pas sis c’est unb bonne idel. moid je suisp ae a obiend, moire on em e donne pad s’einstuir.
denis narchand on Wed, 8th Oct 2025 8:35 am
lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uoitHUO4gDc