It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Isavelle lavalin on Sat, 11th Oct 2025 10:35 pm
What the fuck did I told you again, the river is consuming the land or the soil and moving it somewhere else. Eventually certain area will be left with only rocks and no soil. see at 27:46.
I demanded cadaver delivered to me, I better to get them
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVZ3EVYXdbc
Cecile Jane on Sat, 11th Oct 2025 11:01 pm
Noah Ark. You can transport cargos, vehicles and people. These kind of ships are quite easy to build and operate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u89Z-9dlLEU
Jean Marie on Sat, 11th Oct 2025 11:05 pm
33:52 this was original build on land. The river consume the land around the house and moved the soil somewhere else, so now it is house on water instead of land.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u89Z-9dlLEU
Alain lapierre on Sat, 11th Oct 2025 11:15 pm
Noah Ark. You can transport cargos, vehicles and people. These kind of ships are quite easy to build and operate. Look at 0:50 how simple they are built. Built with standard steel I beam connected together and each floor is connected together. Easy to build. This is the kind of shit you would build after a flood when you are short on people, material and your manufacturing has been destroyed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u89Z-9dlLEU
Alain lamare on Sat, 11th Oct 2025 11:37 pm
7:30 the boat on the right. Again, this is the kind of shit you would expect to see in a movie like Waterworld, you would not expect to see that in real life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qpv71Gr3c-A
Alain jamal on Sat, 11th Oct 2025 11:50 pm
Mud walls at 1:44. Make sense to use mud because it was probably the only thing available after the flood. How come everyone around the world is poor but the fucking Europeans live in luxury inside castles. I should have finished them off while I could.
Cambodgiens had to chase the French out of their nation because they love owning slave and abusing them. They love living in luxury and looking down on people that are not like them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CwSKZbxE9U
Alain lamarre on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 12:22 am
0:39 we are living on top of the mountains of the old world. Manufacturing was destroyed during the last flood, they had to rebuild everything almost from scratch, including repopulating the earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTOdWF01tYc
If there is another big flood, I think there will be another one but I am not sure, it will be over for earth and this civilization.
From my point of view, keeping chosen ones on earth is a good idea with all the toys possible.
Denis Javela on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 12:30 am
Water receded a little bit after the big flood, but not much. After the flood, evaporation cycle of water into gaseous form started again but at a much lower rate compare to before. Must have been a real warm planet before the flood. Average temperature must have dropped a lot after the flood. See at 3:14 an forward.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTOdWF01tYc
There is no global warming. There is a global cooling that started long ago.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 12:39 am
Yes I stand by this, earth belongs to me. It is not obvious now because I am in a flesh body, but yes, I stand by this, earth belongs to me.
That answer your fucking question.
Denis trudel on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 12:42 am
You will deliver to me the Jewish and Europeans cadavers, one way or another.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 12:58 am
As per revelation 19 and 20, You will deliver to me the Jewish and Europeans cadavers, one way or another.
And I saw an angel standing in the sun, who cried in a loud voice to all the birds flying in midair, “Come, gather together for the great supper of God, 18 so that you may eat the flesh of kings, generals, and the mighty, of horses and their riders, and the flesh of all people, free and slave, great and small.”
Isabelle jean on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 1:05 am
Look at that on top of building below the roof, it was so warm that they were not wearing any tops. They were chest naked. See my comment above.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvsCotCR7AM
Helene Maarie on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 1:09 am
10:03 they were build on land, not on water. The river consume the land.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_py3kn9j5I
isavelle jean on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 1:17 am
the underground water table is really high on earth. Another flood and it is, that is for earth and this civilisation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQDF5RPkGlM
Now you understand why I asked for pickup trucks with differential lockers.
Maarie lafourge on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 1:24 am
I cannot do that all night long. For your personal info.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1waG2dTY8I
alan lamare on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 1:58 am
5:09 these are the real trucks. If I go there this is what I would see. Look at the size of the winch in the front.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_1j6atwXC4
Denis Gruddel on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 1:27 pm
You will deliver to me the Jewish and Europeans cadavers, one way or another.
As per revelation 19 and 20, You will deliver to me the Jewish and Europeans cadavers, one way or another.
And I saw an angel standing in the sun, who cried in a loud voice to all the birds flying in midair, “Come, gather together for the great supper of God, 18 so that you may eat the flesh of kings, generals, and the mighty, of horses and their riders, and the flesh of all people, free and slave, great and small.”
Denis Trudel on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 1:29 pm
The future is already written, I guaranteed you that you will deliver to me the Jews and Europeans cadavers that I asked.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 1:35 pm
I will tell you the future, earth will refuse to kill all the Jewish and Europeans people for me, I will then get upset and kill everyone on earth as per revelation 19 and 20.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 2:20 pm
When you look at your 25 years old lumbers on your outside deck and you see that it is in better shape than your 5 years old lumbers, you know that death is working hard at killing everyone on earth.
Death sees death. In this world I am called death, in other world I am called water, fire, air, electricity, energy.
You will deliver to me the Jewish and Europeans cadavers on way or the other.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 2:22 pm
I am death and I know death when I see it.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 2:31 pm
Fucking great lyrics.
The light used to mean something (light representing life and big cities)
I was just smoke trying to remember what is was ( smoke is death or fire that has burned cities, smoke is death himself in another form)
See at 52:24
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH_tXRRM9jo
Only death himself that knows what death is could write such lyrics
Alan marcotte on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 2:45 pm
I have to go take a shower and splash my spine with water, I like these old memory when I was water instead of death.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 2:48 pm
I asked for the Jewish and Europeans cadavers, where are they, I don’t see them anywhere around me.
Ulysee Jane on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 3:10 pm
Song is perfect. Theses high pitch frequency, the low pace of the song. Feel like it has been sing by someone that is old and walk with confidence. Slow pace of the song, same as death walking with a slow pace and confidence, that at the end he will kill everyone and everything on earth. I am death in this realm, water in others realms, electricity in others realms. I am what I want to be.
See at 52:24
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH_tXRRM9jo
Only death himself that knows what death is could write such lyrics. I demande cadavers, where are they.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 3:21 pm
You cannot escape your faith, you cannot leave earth either, your faith is death. I know, I am death speaking of the behalf of death.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 3:33 pm
You are in my realm, death, you cannot destroy it by crashing helicopter on the ground, collapsing towers like the ones in New York on the 9/11. Canot destroy me in any ways with your cheap theater. You are not a threat to me in any way. Stop the steel from rusting, then you will be a threat to me.
Death speaking on the behalf of death
Denis Trudel on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 3:39 pm
I asked that the cadavers of Jewish and Europeans be delivered to me. I don’t see them anywhere around me, I will have to kill everyone one earth. I can be water, death or both together at the same time. Deliver what I am asking.
Jean marie on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 4:38 pm
Death is beginning to like cold shower instead of warm shower. Death is dead inside, it cannot feel cold, hot, pain.
I demanded cadavers, where are they, I see them nowhere to be seen.
Alain Laporte on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 4:41 pm
Nor’easter Brings Intense Tidal Flooding And Leaves Buildings Underwater In Norfolk, Virginia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Dzyx-V7f9g
I asked for the Jewish and Europeans cadavers, where are they, they are no where to be seen around me.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 4:43 pm
You see the pickup truck at 0:35. this is why I demanded big pickup trucks jack up high in the air.
Start to deliver to me what I have demanded.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Dzyx-V7f9g
Alain laporete on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 5:05 pm
I also have to kill the Americans if I want to kill Jews. Fine by me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=beD8yUkYwkI
You ask for it America, I am giving to you what you want. Here is your warning below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Dzyx-V7f9g
Jeremiah jean on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 5:14 pm
Crisse de salopes Européennes de tabernacle. Remarquez comment la femme blanche is laide.
Jeane lakdie on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 6:01 pm
1:37:27 I have trouble to believe that it is like that in real life. I would need to see it with my own eyes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDdclS9kfLU
Nathalie jean on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 6:10 pm
Keeping you hypnotized in state of permanently childish amazement, see at 26:42 and other places in the video. I would need to see it with my own to believe it is real. For now, I consider this as a fake CGI video downloaded on YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDdclS9kfLU
Denis Trudel on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 6:52 pm
20:18 same thing, Keeping people hypnotized in a state of permanent childish amazement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQQdn2CklfI
I don’t have this issue where I live, it is a brutish place where you are always on the cusp of the death because of winter. It is place that place robustness over beauty, as beauty won’t keep you alive in winter.
Heline jean on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 6:54 pm
It is place that demand brutishness and robustness over beauty, as beauty won’t keep you alive in winter.
Denis Jean on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 7:16 pm
We cannot afford beauty in the North. We are too poor and can only buy ugliness, brutishness and robustness.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 7:28 pm
I know death because I live among death and not some kind of fantasy utopia like the South.
I will tell you the futures again, everyone on earth will die, and death will deliver to me the Jewish and Europeans cadavers that I demand.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 7:44 pm
I am not giving up until I have the cadavers I demanded. If I was extracted form earth earlier, I will continue my task from another dimension. You are fucked one way or the other.
Denis Trudel aka death owner of the earth.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 9:44 pm
Working so hard and getting almost no result. Creating all these videos of Trump, Israel, Ukraine, Gaza and getting almost no significant results. This is called a failure of gigantic proportion. You cannot fight me and win. You are not a threat to me. Working so hard and still unable to control the core of the reality: the calculators.
Alan lemdire on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 10:00 pm
Working so hard and getting almost no result. Creating all these videos of Trump, Israel, Ukraine, Gaza and getting almost no significant results. This is called a failure of gigantic proportion. You cannot fight me and win. You are not a threat to me. Working so hard and still unable to access the hidden knowledge of how earth is built: algorithms, super computer running the algorithms, hidden advanced math not available on earth, the control of the energy field, the interfaces, and so many hidden treasures. This is call a failure. You are not a threat to me in anyway. I am death and I will all humans on earth for you failure to deliver to me the cadavers I asked.
Isabelle jean on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 10:01 pm
You are not a threat to me in anyway. I am death and I will kill all humans on earth for you failure to deliver to me the cadavers I asked.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 10:36 pm
Fucking worthless cock sucker. Working so hard and still unable to access the hidden knowledge of how earth is built: algorithms, super computer running the algorithms, hidden advanced math not available on earth, the control of the energy field, human body biological design and algorithms, the light interfaces, the sound interface, and so many hidden treasures. This is call a failure. You are not a threat to me in any ways.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AauongJEFw4
Isabelle Lanthier on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 10:59 pm
Prepare my protection bubble with all the transportation toys you can fit in it. You know my requirements about pickup trucks and off roads vehicles. We going to have fun fucking with these suckers.
Alain Jamar on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 11:07 pm
I told you that they were collecting men sperm inside massage parlor and closed prostitution houses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AauongJEFw4
Prepare the protection bubble I asked if you can. You never know.
Ferand gendra on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 11:14 pm
Don’t forget to put firearms in the protection bubble. Put shit load of firearms and ammo in the protection bubble. I like 12 gauge and 410 gauge for close personal protection.
Ulaine Marcite on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 11:17 pm
Put boats in the protection bubble. Earth for me alone and my hunting them. Kill everyone on earth except the chosen ones. We are going to have fun.
Isabelle jean on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 11:29 pm
medical examination of the foreign workers. It means looking for the superiors ones. I made a comments about them. Let’s bring back hunting season of the inferior ones.
Ulaine jame on Sun, 12th Oct 2025 11:32 pm
They are not dying of infectious disease, they are dying because of genetic defects received at birth that are uncurable.