It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Rregis laforge on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 5:43 pm
I don’t think it matters at this point. Conservation of mass will kill everyone on earth. I still dont like the fucking Europeans. I never like them. Only the chosen ones will live. I made comments about depletion and conservation of mass. I won’t repeat myself here.
Denis Trudelle on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 5:47 pm
Secretly I want the total extermination of the Whites Europeans, Jews and the British. Really don’t like these people.
Regis Trudeau on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 5:50 pm
I want back my hybrids as it was before. If I have to kill everyone on earth, so be it.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 6:04 pm
I should probably not have written that. But I have to share my flesh body with beings that cannot be earth in a flesh body.
I want my fucking hybrids back. It is the last time you fuck up other people work.
Isballe lanthier on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 6:35 pm
you fucking dare to tell me that nobody else except me, saw that this were colonisation roads. Nobody else could see that, it was fucking obvious. Earth is really populated with mentally retarded people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDFqzrc8vLk
Alain gendron on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 9:05 pm
She put her finger in my ass.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGh1muUgI_E
Ostie de câlisse de taberncles. I
Isabelle Lanthier on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 9:10 pm
My father did not want me to have kids. They never push me to get marry or have a girl friend. I fucking told you. Everyone knows earth is a big shit hole and the flesh body is total garbage.
Jean Marie on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 9:27 pm
This also did some bad things to the baby boomers that upset them greatly. We just don’t have movies of this era to tell us what it was.
My father tole me once, I hope you put a condom. He did not call me an idiot, but the tone in voice was implying it.
It is over for earth civilisation. As I said you lost the West a long time ago, people just don’t have the IQ needed to see it. Without high IQ people earth civilization will not last eternally.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 9:31 pm
Two things will probably happen. The chosen ones will be extract out of earth or the chosen ones will be given a protection bubble and they will roam earth as lonely traveler until dead or extraction.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 9:40 pm
Two things will probably happen. The chosen ones will be extract out of earth or the chosen ones will be given a protection bubble and they will roam earth as lonely traveler until dead or extraction.
Two things will probably happen. The chosen ones will be extract out of earth or the chosen ones will be given a protection bubble and they will roam earth as lonely traveler until dead or extraction.
They might keep a couple of chosen ones on earth so they can observe from the eyes of the chosen ones what will happen after everyone is dead on earth. To see if earth will shutdown or be rebooted.
The reality could also disintegrate before that. We never know.
Regis Levaume on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 9:47 pm
They might keep a couple of chosen ones on earth to see what will happen with animal, insect, plants, aquatic life after everyone on earth is dead. This is what I would do if I was them.
Elaind James on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 9:52 pm
I told you that they used WW1 and WW2 to accelerate the transfert of technical knowledge to earth and add new content into Engineering course.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBj4uD1ODO0
Regina Tremblay on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 9:54 pm
It went completely undetected what they were doing. See comment above.
Jaime presley on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 10:00 pm
Here more proof of what I said above.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19MMbBXS-IM
Selen James on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 10:02 pm
Here we go again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWAWuTlUpO4
Jamal Mouhamad on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 10:07 pm
You have these fucking colonisation roads everywhere around the world
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xo79hfZN64A
Denis Trudel on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 10:15 pm
They can also dig tunnels, but they prefer to avoid it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaxCQffNRsY
Marime massé on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 10:25 pm
Same technic, the square rectangle triangle technic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t88kN4Ojyew
Isasbelle puante on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 10:30 pm
You see it really well the square triangle technic there at 1:09:29 in the middle of the screen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t88kN4Ojyew
Lemire Marame on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 10:42 pm
At 1:26:50 you can clearly see the slope of the mountain and how the cut a square triangle to build the road.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZZgMfc7vbk
Daniel seraphim on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 10:51 pm
I don’t know if they cut the road with heavy machinery or they have a software that cut roads from the earth solid parametric model.
They start with a virgin earth parametric solid model of earth and use a software to cut the road for them, making it look like it was done by heavy machinery.
Valerie Hamel on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 10:53 pm
They sure love their fucking insects. I never met one person on earth that told me that they love insects.
Denis Jen on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 10:58 pm
1:06 this is the parametric solid model of earth before modification. They start with this and use a software to cut the road using a square triangle method.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Alsin James on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 11:23 pm
Nobody build a structure like that on top of a mountain using heavy machineries powered by diesel fuel. It is too fucking expensive and such project would go bankrupt before reaching the top of the mountain. We really live inside a simulation. See at 24:49
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-jxB4sIgafY
the financial system would not allow the creation of such a road where there is no revenus to pay for it.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 11:29 pm
I just look they charge a fee. There is no way the fees that they are charging are sufficient to pay for the construction of such a road.
the financial system would not allow the creation of such a road where there is not enough sufficient revenus to pay for it.
Fucking BS. Send an accountant to look inside their books and audit this whole thing. See who is financing this and why. Audit the whole thing including the construction cost, the engineering firm that did the work and so on.
Isabelle giant on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 11:38 pm
Don’t need to comment on this.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/sq5J_QfogMs
Denis Trudel on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 11:59 pm
All insects are cold-blooded
All insects are cold-blooded and cannot generate heat from their bodies. Instead, insects rely on the heat from their surrounding environment to increase their body heat. This heat embodiment allows insects enough time to hunt for food.
I go outside to have cigarette. I go out and notice how cold it was, it was 10 degrees Celsius. Go back inside my house to get a polar fleece jack. I am there outside smoking and I can still hear insects making all kind of noise. At they suppose to enter in hibernation with a temperature of 10 degree Celsius. They can even not keep their fucking lies align and coherent.
Fuck, they love their fucking insects. Fuck they are proud of this part of their creation.
Isabelle gentille on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 12:13 am
Rocket has no fins to guide it like an airplane. It will fly in a random direction because of wind vector, air density and temperatures scalaire field of air. Another fucking lie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1VBMD8Paxo
They really produce such a piece of crap missile that does not respect the basic laws of newtons. Same as with the fucking insects, they cannot keep their lies aligned and coherents.
Aland Gendron on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 12:21 am
If the forces coming out of one the reactor is not equal, it will create a torque at the base of the missile and change its direction why flying in the air. You need a perfect control of all the forces coming out of the reactors, it is impossible to achieved within the tolerances we use with today machining tools.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1VBMD8Paxo
They really think we are losers and can be easily manipulated with cheap video.
Isabelle gendron on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 12:28 am
The advantage of being a King, you can go to Montana and ask them to show you their missile and look at it close by. Then you ask them to show you the design document the guiding missile control system and feedback loop to keep the missile going in the right direction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmSUoVJ1im0
Denis Gruelle on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 12:57 am
They really deserve what is coming their ways. They deserve brutal and violent murder. No mercy toward them.
Isabelle dent on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 7:12 am
I told you that I would kill kill the whole population of earth. I am doing it right now, but you don’t have the IQ needed to see it. I want my hybrids back. I want all women of earth dead.
Australia Freezes At -13.2C; Snow In Weird Places; The New York Times Invents Hot Days; + Just Four Sunspot Groups
Denis Trudel on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 9:03 am
You cannot hit a target because the recoil and human error will push the barrel even from a direct line with the target.
A deviation of 1 degree or 0.0174 radian on a distance of 500 meter. Lets calculate the deviation away from the target with the tangente function
tan 0.0174*500m=8.7 meter
Do the calculation using a tan mathematical function. You will see what I mean.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/QGe7AAOUA-U
Isabelle jena on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 9:07 am
Over a distance of 50 meter you will get
tan 0.0174*50m=0.87 meter
This is assuming a deviation of 1 degree away from a direct line with the target. 1 degree is probably really conservative. I am even not talking about the manufacturing tolerances of the barrel. I assume a perfect geometrically manufactured barrel.
I like shotgun fire from the hips for a distance of 10 meter or less. I would need to try that in real life to see.
Alaen gendron on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 9:23 am
That is the purpose of automatic rifle. You shoot from the hips by moving the gun a bit left and right to compensate for the angular deviation. The problem with that is that you empty your charger really fast.
Everything is a fucking lie here.
Gentte maritte on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 9:30 am
That is the purpose of shotgun shell with multiple balls inside the cartridge. It is to compensate for the inaccuracy of the barrel and the recoil.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qk-KEnVvLEE
Denis Trudel on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 9:55 am
Send your fucking money so I can buy a piece of land with my own personal shooting range, and a bigger house so I can have a library of books including human anatomy books, car lift, software to extract the code out of cars computers, and so on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZwLIPotMK8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ghgx7u2NLgM
Alain Lemdire on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 10:06 am
I doubt this kind of precision is possible in real life. Need to look at the programming code and the bomb close be.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9ZLdOX0HHs
Denis Trudel on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 10:14 am
I hate the fucking mobile phone and the internet. It feel like we are part of experiment and they using it to gather data to analyzed human behavior better and modified earth reality accordingly. They are studying their slave to see how to make them more obedient and to improve the working efficient of the human slave.
Isabelle strip on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 10:30 am
Typical stripper poses. This is what I used to see when I was going to stripper club in 1980. They are really proud of their female vagina and they really think it is something beautiful and perfect. If it was so perfect, the birth rate would not be so low.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hMmlpmF4cCU
Ulysee parct on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 10:48 am
I had a girl friend that was getting upset if I left the toilet seat up. Fucking women and their over inflated sense of ego and entitlement. After that they are all surprised that birth rate is low. I told you that are just fucking losers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQirKUtGCYo
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hMmlpmF4cCU
Denis Trudel on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 11:40 am
52:01 is this a real tunnel. If I go there this is what I will see. Look fake. Something that is put there to make earth more beautiful and livable. I bit like when you put a picture on a wall to decorate the room. They would put this tunnel there to decorate the road. Earth look like a fuckin experiment to test ideas and concepts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4b0UM-lOG0
Isabelle lantheir on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 11:50 am
0:05 there is no fucking way this building is real. Look like something you would put there to test a new building design and seen how it affect people behavior and mood. This is what I will see if I travel there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0FjhF7eVbs
jean lamarche on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 12:09 pm
This look like stainless steel. Do you know how expensive stainless steel is?
0:05 there is no fucking way this building is real.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0FjhF7eVbs
Jeanne Laporte on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 12:22 pm
It is a luxury type of smart city. They are working really hard at improving online shopping and home delivery. They improved the online shopping experience by a lot inside a 5 year period. I think they want to hide the manufacturing away from cities by improving online shopping and delivery. Eventually manufacturing will be something fake replaced by a mathematics model. People in the cities will never know that manufacturing existed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWXu2oA039A
Denis Trudel on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 12:38 pm
14:39 trying to keep the adult population in a childhood state of mind. Probably easier to control people this way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCbLpKs0XxA
Idadel laito on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 12:39 pm
14:39 Is it really like that. If I go there this is what I will see with my eyes. They really did that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCbLpKs0XxA
Balck stepha on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 12:58 pm
2:27 they are tying the hypnotise people and keeping them in a state of permanent amazement so, they cannot see the true or search for the truth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6isNLmoZ4SQ
This song talk about that
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhnaPky_Rvs
They gave up on Africa because black people are too intelligent and would suspect that something is wrong. Intelligence is not about the number of diploma one person has.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 1:21 pm
If they could kill me they would have done it a long time ago. They would have never let me spit out so much truth to the world like that. I told you, I am an hybrid human with a special protection.
I am not talking killing me with a weapon, but with some kind of energy beam.
Tremblay wilfrid on Mon, 18th Aug 2025 1:33 pm
I would say that they rebooted earth reality around 1950 and started a new cycle. I was send on earth in 1967 during the period where they were introducing the color TV.