It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 2:30 am
They could not create the UN out of nothing. It would have look suspicious. They created WW1 and WW2 wars because they needed an raison to validate the creation of the UN. UN was supposed to turn into a one world government place where all the decision for the whole planet would take place. It failed and never happened.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnQESSTouNU
The used WW1 and WW2 for multiples purposes: accelerated technological transfert, UN, globalism, international banking system. I don’t know how I know all of this. After all, I am a time traveller.
Jean marcile on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 2:36 am
Their goal was to transfer the technology to the White race first, and the White race will transfer the technology to the rest of the world using the Western Universities as a transfer point to other nations.
I don’t know how I know all of this.
Laport janine on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 2:44 am
Japan is a special case. They received the same technological transfert as Whites people at the same time.
Jean marchan on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 2:52 am
My guess is that their repopulation plan did not work as planned. They created clones that are mentally retarded.
Eric Lapointe on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 3:02 am
Marshall plant was not about stopping communism. It was about installing communism in Europe.
Stehapne Jean on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 3:06 am
Everything they planned derail because their clones were mentally retarded. Me, I am not a human, so I am different. I call myself an hybrid.
Denis Latourne on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 3:23 am
Another of the their TV series made to boost the birth rate. I watched a some of these here and there back in the days.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBYcyDoh-XI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbB0vknXBrY
Fucking manipulative cock suckers.
Isabelle Loveboat on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 3:30 am
This is the fucking garbage they were feeding us. It never work with me.
I have completely forgotten about this one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82nxnU_HT-o
Bertand relianre on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 3:55 am
Here some more garbage they were feeding us. I am unable to watch more than 15 minutes of it. I get bored. Enjoy their strategy to boost birth rate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UH2kV-NzHiQ
Yellos jdan on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 3:58 am
Fuck this was a boring. These are my two preferred movies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ak4IAgVUyqE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1A0eIFEFrpo
Denis Trudel on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 10:34 am
I don’t like the Europeans from Europe, I also think they should be exterminated with the Jews.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MjnPcfxOI4
Isabelle Jean on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 10:36 am
I prefer the Russians over the Europeans of Europe.
Aland Gendron on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 10:42 am
In fact, I would like to purge out of Earth, the British, Jews and Europeans of Europe. I want all of them exterminated.
Isabelle Jean on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 10:45 am
In fact, I would like to purge out of Earth, the British, Jews and Europeans of Europe. I want all of them exterminated. After that I would like to leave earth. Exit the warrior.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=auLBLk4ibAk
Denis trudel on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 10:58 am
Ukraine : Macron, von der leyen, Merz et Starmer à Washington, lundi, avec Zelensky
I am really displeased by this news. Stupid pieces of shit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=reMTaN1MqH0
Denis trudel on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 11:00 am
I will destroy the US also for displeasing me with this:
Ukraine : Macron, von der leyen, Merz et Starmer à Washington, lundi, avec Zelensky
I am really displeased by this news. Stupid pieces of shit. I warned you stupid pieces of shit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=reMTaN1MqH0
Denis trudel on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 11:40 am
Fuck, I hate Whites people. I don’t have this hatred toward the Black, Asians or other race. I deeply hate the Whites race and the Jews.
Jaime presley on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 11:48 am
We will see what happen. Maybe GOD will kill all the population of earth for me and let me roam thought earth alone.
Isabelle lantheir on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 11:58 am
Because the republicans that appear on the show are willing to lie and say the false words while the democrats refuse to show up because they know the game already and refuse to play it. Both sides are corrupt as fuck but the republicans are more open and willing with their corruption.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/5E3Vmpf65dg
Marc Trudelle on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 12:20 pm
This is how it was supposed to be. The North was nerver supposed to be colonized. Fuck I hate the Whites and Jews.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEh5UWJtG0A
Fucking Whites people and their desires to control the world and everything. Fucking disappointment. Only the chosen ones where supposed to live and roam the either as lonely beings.
bertane welling on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 12:31 pm
Everyone on earth will be killed, and only the males chosen ones will be allowed to roam through earth as solitaire traveller.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 12:48 pm
The creation of sex and the creation of women were not part of our initial plan. It was supposed to be an hybrid man asexual with improved abilities (long life span, higher intelligence, better memory, fast healing) that was supposed to roam the earth in a solitary fashion. Earth was supposed to be a temporary station where these beings would come live here for a while and leave.
Someone fuck up with our initial creation.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 12:50 pm
I am really unhappy about all of this.
Jean lemdire on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 12:58 pm
It makes sense it follows the rules. This is how it is supposed to work.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxGtQlSJb-8
It is all about a set of rules. This is why it is called a creation or reality. It comes with a set of rules. There is also a set of rules governing entropic degradation or death on earth. I don’t see an issue with that.
I am really displease by what I am seeing. Especially the creation of women and sexual reproduction. That was not part of our initial plan.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 1:06 pm
You could have done it another way.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/_ITNUKaJH10
8(exp x) + 8(exp x) = 64
2( 8(exp x) )= 64
8(exp x) = 32
You did not need to do factorization of 8(exp x). You could just add temp together because they are the same quantity.
Denios Terudel on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 1:12 pm
I am very displeased by the current state of earth. Really not happy about all of this.
Real Tremblay on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 1:32 pm
Language is similar to math. It is just a set of rule: adverbes, adjectif, subordinate proposition and so on. I don’t remember all the rules because I don’t have a long term permanent memory. it is not as complicated as people think
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1Wm-Be9lLU
https://www.alloprof.qc.ca/fr/eleves/bv/francais/la-subordination-f1477
Earth reality is based on the creation of set of rules and programed inside some kind of computational machine.
I am very displeased by the current state of earth. Really not happy about all of this. The creation of women was not part of our initial plan.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 1:37 pm
Where are the fucking hybrid men we brought up on earth. I cannot find him everywhere I look.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 1:41 pm
Fucking women and her sense of entitlement. We are going to deal with earth even if it takes us a long time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDw45K7y7PY
Isabelle Jean on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 1:53 pm
I have to go shave my arms and torso because my skin itches too much. I have to remove the dead skin caused by the upgrade process.
Who played with our original creation. We will find out and deal with you in a brutal and violent manner.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 2:46 pm
Fucking women always ready to open her legs just to survive another day. No honor, no moral, no intelligence. Just good at manipulating using sex and emotional cheap tricks such as love.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkR2_z3G6o0
Nadine Jean on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 2:52 pm
Trying to figure out if she has been impregned by an human or something else.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/osB6zrwGn68
Isasbelle lanthier on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 3:01 pm
These fucking pieces of shit even created black and white video about police forces.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WE_IyWgHVo
Marcellue jean on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 3:06 pm
I want to see how long the polices forces will stay in operation in an environment of oil depletion and with shortage of car mechanics because cars are too complex to fix.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WE_IyWgHVo
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/aVHFCfiuH38
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/uR1-FsIw_WA
Isabelle Jeremiah on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 3:06 pm
I want to see how long the polices forces will stay in operation in an environment of oil depletion and with shortage of car mechanics because cars are too complex to fix.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WE_IyWgHVo
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/aVHFCfiuH38
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/uR1-FsIw_WA
Stephane Bureau on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 3:17 pm
Eventually the army will become the new police forces. They are the only ones with enough staff, money and resources to keep motor vehicles running. It is going to be a dictatorship one way or another and rnn by the army. It is just a matter of time.
Alain Laforge on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 3:20 pm
It is going to be a dictatorship run the army. It is simply unavoidable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrDj5XvZXX4
Heline Jeanine on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 3:23 pm
I told you that they are just fucking losers.
Gerald neria on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 3:29 pm
Only the army has the staff, the command structure, the knowledge the mechanical installations needed to keep fixing and maintaining motor vehicle. This is in the best case scenario. Otherwise it is complete chaos. Cities will lose the abilities to provide service including the polices forces. It is just a matter of time.
Stephane Relia on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 3:49 pm
Because of your fucking restrictive firearms laws, the population won’t be able to build effective milita groups to fight against the dictator or the army. Fucking losers all the way down to their asshole.
The chosen ones will see shit they never thought they would see in their lifetime.
Alain Berthiaume on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 4:25 pm
They like to build road by the side of the mountain. You just push the debris down the mountain. You don’t need to remove the debris using truck. It save fuel and can be done with less workers. See at 18:18. You carve a right angle triangle on the side of the mountain. the horizontal base of the triangle give you a solid base upon which the road can be built. It is easier then digging a tunnel inside a mountain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NVwcxchuH
Stepohane marcotte on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 4:28 pm
Here is the right video link.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NVwcxchuHI
Denis Trudel on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 4:31 pm
33:35 are the holes they used to push the debris down the mountains.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NVwcxchuHI
Stephane Jean on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 4:37 pm
The rock wall stones are coming from the debris collected during the creation of the road. The would normally push these down the side of the mountain. but sometimes they reuse the. See at 34:38. They are other worlds out there that are hidden from us. This is a colonisation road.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NVwcxchuHI
Isabelle lanthier on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 5:01 pm
You have to find where these roads are starting. If they starts at the oceans, it means they came in by the sea.
A long time ago, came a man on a track
Walking thirty miles with a sack on his back
And he put down his load where he thought it was the best
He made a home in the wilderness
He built a cabin and a winter store
And he ploughed up the ground by the cold lake shore
And the other travellers came walking down the track
And they never went further, no, they never went back
[Chorus]
Then came the churches, then came the schools
Then came the lawyers, and then came the rules
Then came the trains and the trucks with their loads
And the dirty old track was the telegraph road
[Verse 2]
Then came the mines, then came the ore
Then there was the hard times, then there was a war
Telegraph sang a song about the world outside
Telegraph road got so deep and so wide
Like a rolling river
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4E_924b9SU
Jean marechan on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 5:21 pm
Typical winter roads with all these patches. I would say 40 year old. It could have been repaved. 23:01. Look like summer retreats. You would come here for the summer and leave before winter. Buildings look like summer retreats. Look like some people came here to escape the heat. They might come from a place that is really hot during their summers. Maybe their world is dying because it is too hot.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wo93phBux74
Denis Lamarche on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 5:35 pm
Colonisation road. There no guard rails by the side of the road 34:35.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wo93phBux74
Isasbelle jean on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 5:39 pm
I really need money to be able travel around. I like to do things alone my own way.
Denis Lamarche on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 5:40 pm
Colonisation road. There no guard rails by the side of the road 34:35.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wo93phBux74
Jean Marie on Sun, 17th Aug 2025 5:40 pm
I really need money to be able travel around. I like to do things alone my own way.