It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Isabelle Lanthier on Fri, 22nd Aug 2025 9:38 am
We are currently in the process of killing everyone on earth, as I said we would do.
Record August Chill Hits Yemen And Saudi Arabia; Snow Slams Cerro Catedral; Coffee: The Canary In The Cooling Coal Mine; + Extreme Event Attribution: The IPCC’s New Political Weapon
Jean lemire on Fri, 22nd Aug 2025 10:11 am
I told you that I would kill all the population of earth because of Canada firearms laws.
I told you that I would kill all the population of earth because of the installation of this fucking British whore of Carney as prime minister
I told you that I would kill all the population of earth because of the lost of datas we incur because you did not give me money so I can buy a car and drive around.
I fucking told you so to not fuck with me.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 22nd Aug 2025 12:31 pm
Trump was right about everything. NO I WAS RIGHT ABOUT EVERYTHING.
I told you what the future will be. I will killed everyone on earth. Every one is starting to realize what is really happening on earth and who is the new owner of earth: me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rB9gbCxb_K0
Isabelle lanthier on Fri, 22nd Aug 2025 1:02 pm
I think some of you don’t understand. I am not sharing earth with anyone. I will kill everyone on earth and keep earth for myself alone. Everybody dies.
Denis Trudel on Sat, 23rd Aug 2025 1:34 am
Interpret that the way you wants.
———————————————
Back-up: National Guard mobilizing in 19 states amid immigration, crime crackdown
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/national-guard-mobilizing-19-states-immigration-crime-crackdown
UpDate: National Guard troops have started to mobilize in 19 States.
States noted for this action –
Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wyoming -Status is effective from August through mid-November
Alain Gendron on Sat, 23rd Aug 2025 1:40 am
I had to look it up. I was not sure what was the command structure. I did not know this one: All members of the National Guard are also members of the organized militia of the United States as defined by 10 U.S.C. § 246.
—————————————-
The National Guard is a state-based military force that becomes part of the U.S. military’s reserve components of the U.S. Army and the U.S. Air Force when activated for federal missions.[2] It is a military reserve force composed of National Guard military members or units of each state, the territories of Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the District of Columbia, for a total of 54 separate organizations. It is officially created under Congress’s Article I, Section 8 enumerated power to “raise and support Armies”.[3] All members of the National Guard are also members of the organized militia of the United States as defined by 10 U.S.C. § 246. National Guard units are under the dual control of U.S. state governments and the U.S. federal government.[2]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Militia_(United_States)
Isabelle Lanthier on Sat, 23rd Aug 2025 2:03 am
I told you. Everything else failed. The only option left is to transfer the ownership of the US and Canada lands to a King. This include everything on the land, people, the buildings, the federal reserve, Microsoft, GM, Ford, Boeing, every state capitals, every cities and so on. It is absolute power over the lands and and everything inside these lands, including banks, all the headquarter of big corporation, CNN, Fox News, all the universities, colleges,..
Finding someone stupid enough to accept the job is another matter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjzxVik8CTM
ALain Gendron on Sat, 23rd Aug 2025 3:30 pm
17:02 the blue doors at the floor level have the same frame as the Windows above. The door are exactly the same size as the windows above. They removed the old windows and installed doors instead. There is a least another floor below maybe even 2. Must have been a big fucking flood.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCiD318-XiA
Denis Trudel on Sat, 23rd Aug 2025 3:35 pm
18:08 the doors are windows repurposed into doors. The top of the windows and doors are the same. This is probably the top of the building. It was a really fucking big flood. It completely changed the geography of earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCiD318-XiA
Jean lemdire on Sat, 23rd Aug 2025 3:53 pm
See at 29:35 behind the trees. This is an old quarry. This is where they took the stones to pave the roads.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCiD318-XiA
denis trudel on Sat, 23rd Aug 2025 10:11 pm
I am not working for free anymore. It is time for me to receive some monetary compensation for my work. Just go fuck yourself, you behave like narcissistic abusers that never give anything back and always take. You always demand the best of me but you never give back anything. It is not my fault if you are losers. I have awaken the whole planet earth, it is time for me to receive something back in return.
Jean Lemire on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 4:20 am
If I own Canada and the US and everything on these lands and if I make a internet purchase from a Canadian retailer such as Canadian Tire, should I pay for my purchases. No I should not pay for my purchases since I own the land and everything on it.
Would this fuck up earth slavery system that someone own the land and everything on it. Would it fuck up your slavery system that they are to set of laws. One set of laws for the King and on set of laws for the population. I think it would fuck up your slavery system.
I never thought about that this way. You own the land, you don’t need to pay for anything including car, pick-up truck.
Isabell lanthier on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 4:27 am
If I make a internet purchase at Canadian Tire and I don’t need to pay. This could also mean that a protection bubble is being set up just for me and the total destruction of earth is about to happen. Meaning I will stay on earth for a long period of time to see if earth will reboot after the death of all its population.
Jaime Presley on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 4:32 am
Early U.S. Cold To Impact 200 Million; Summer Snow In The Carpathians; Australia Forecast 3 Feet; Andes Hammered: Five Feet of Snow in Five Days at Valle Nevado; + MSM vs MSM
I might need pick-up trucks to drive around and check if they are tying to reboot earth reality after the death of everyone. I must be able to patrol the territory.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TIuJqM2gpk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCZTQESXCPw
These are the 2 pick-up truck I would like to patrol the territory and check is someone is trying to reboot earth reality.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 5:00 am
I told you that we would kill everyone living on earth. I fucking told you.
Isabelle Lanthier on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 5:09 am
There is an anomaly in the matrix. It has been explain in the matrix reloaded. Their weather mathematical model has an anomaly in it and has flooded the earth, probably more then once. They had to reboot the humans. They did not want to erase earth parametric model and restart from scratch. They patched earth parametric model to hide the flood and rebooted the humans.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHZl2naX1Xk
Jean lemdire on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 5:26 am
there is a bunch of anomaly inside their mathematical models. They will let everyone on earth die, patch earth parametric model like they did the last time, and reboot the humans again. make sense to keep someone here to monitor everything and give him a protection bubble.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 5:45 am
They probably have a lot of anomalies in their mathematical models. I can think of two of them. Weather anomaly causing heavy flooding and entropic degradation is too aggressive and eventually kills everything.
Isabell Lanthier on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 6:08 am
The reason I ask for pick-up trucks is to get ahead of the entropic degradation curve. When roads will start to degrade, I will already have the right vehicle to roam thought the place.
Alan Hertiaume on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 6:13 am
I think I made a comments about that. What is happening right now is not really interesting, the datas collected are basically almost useless. The real stuff will start after all the population of earth is dead. This is when the real valuable datas will be collected.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 11:37 am
I always have the best stuff on my YouTube page.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7K_cojKrMM
Alain Lemire on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 11:38 am
Notice the duration of the vide 33:22.
I always have the best stuff on my YouTube page.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7K_cojKrMM
Isabelle Lanthier on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 12:00 pm
Cities need easy to repair pick-up truck to maintain their potable water network, used water pumping station, and so on. Without easy serviceable and reliable pick-up truck cities will collapse fast. This is another reason why we are preparing for the death of everyone on earth. The best shit will happen after everyone is dead on earth. Will the reboot earth, how will they patch earth, and so on
If you fix your own car, you know what is really happening there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7K_cojKrMM
Notice the duration of the video 33:22. It has been done just for me. Probably done by Ford itself.
Alain Lemire on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 12:11 pm
If you fix your own car, you know what is really happening there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7K_cojKrMM
Notice the duration of the video 33:22, I already own the US and Canada, it has just not been made official. This video has been made for me.
Stephane Bureau on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 12:30 pm
Notice the truck is brand new and has no rust on the exhaust bolts at 11:30. This video has probably done by Ford itself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7K_cojKrMM
I already own the US and Canada and everything on these lands. Apparently they are serious and they will give me the US and Canada lands to me.
Isabelle Jean on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 12:38 pm
The Jews must be upset that US and Canada was given to a goyim and not a member of the Jewish tribe. Are piss off fucking Jews?
The Jews thought they would destroy the US and Canada from the inside and use this as an opportunity to take ownership of the US and Canada. Are you upset fucking Jews. Apparently you plan for world domination failed.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 12:52 pm
Funny I should be more excited to own so much wealth. Every things that is on US and Canada soils belong to me. This is a lot of wealth for one man. Yet I feel almost bored by it. It as if I happened to me in previous reincarnation cycles. I have a feeling of déjà vue.
Isabelle lanthier on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 1:10 pm
I should be more excited by it. It is troubling even for me that I am not more excited by it. A jews would certainly by excited and proud of him. I guess I have no Jewish blood inside of me. Wonder how old I really am and how many times I reincarnated. Make me wonder.
Jean lemdire on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 1:12 pm
This has been done either by Ford or by a Ford dealer on the behalf of Ford. The frame is a bit dirty. It suggests that this truck was driven a little bit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7K_cojKrMM
Stephane jean on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 1:23 pm
26:01 you have to love the exhaust pipe almost touching the wheel well separated by 1/4 inch thermal isolation. I want to know how you will do to run your cities and water treatment plants without reliable pick-up truck.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7K_cojKrMM
Denis Tremblay on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 1:32 pm
I am worried that I am not more excited by that. I am starting to ask myself how old I am. My feeling is that I must be really fucking old.
Jean marie on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 1:49 pm
How old am I? If someone was to come to me and tell me you are 1000 years old but you just don’t remember. It will come back to you slowly. I would actually believe him.
Denis Jemire on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 2:06 pm
3:43 the bar on the left next to the pool. Typical of a recreation facility right there. Can have sex with women directly in the pools and drown them close to panic just before death. I will assume if I take an airplane and go there, this is what I would see.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASHTrM48TCU
isabelle lnathier on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 2:10 pm
Colonisations trucks designed to open new roads. Heavy duty pieces of shit that can be abused over and over.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dn8sEQpLe58
denis trudel on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 2:26 pm
The 10 wheels version. Seem like it has full locking differentials of all axels. Fucking beast. Easy to maintain and almost indestructibles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_1j6atwXC4
Alain Berthiaumne on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 2:46 pm
Using the square triangle method to open roads. Made comments about that. These are all steel made truck, You can weld on these when they break and put them back in service.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ewxaUKxVKg
isabelle charue on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 2:51 pm
Another colonization equipment made to open new roads. Cheap to build, easy to maintain, quite capable off road for its size.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9yCuh6ysTg
Jean tremblaye on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 3:08 pm
As I said what is currently happening on earth is boring and uninteresting to me. It is when everyone on earth died that it will become interesting to me. Will they reboot earth, will they patch earth to erase any trace of previous civilization, will the terminate the reality permanently.
alain berthiaume on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 4:00 pm
Another colonization truck, but designed for cold climate. Typical winch in the front and made of all steel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUshweuFFk8
Jean marcil on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 4:18 pm
The most interesting stuff always happens after everyone dies on earth. I call this period of my life the idling period. Idling period before the interesting stuff starts.
Denis trudel on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 10:12 pm
Look at how much plastic there is. I will repeat myself. Everyone on earth will die it is guaranteed. Only the chosen will live.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdF-9yYpphQ
Isabelle lanthier on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 10:25 pm
What will they do after everyone on earth is dead. Will they refill earth with oil and reboot everything, will they come up with improvements such as a substitute for plastic. Maybe they will not reboot earth. How they will hide this civilization before rebooting a new one.
The interesting stuff will happen only after everyone on earth is dead.
Alain lemire on Mon, 25th Aug 2025 10:53 pm
Loans receivable, the single biggest asset on Treasuries balance sheet. Obamabucks. Projecting that out to 2040-2055 has got to be wild.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGCCSAQ027S
Here is the result of your FED audit. Just debt.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 26th Aug 2025 12:28 am
Typical smart city layout with some visual hypnotizing architecture. It is a more mature style of hypnotizing compare to Asia with its more childish design.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSVyW3Aomlc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCG7SjINg1Y
Isabelle lanthier on Tue, 26th Aug 2025 8:15 am
I told you that we would kill everyone on earth.
Perth’s Coldest Day In 50 Years; Antarctica At -105.9F; Snow Closes Khardung-La; OK With Record Summer Cold; Germany Breaks Historic Cold Records As The Gas Tanks Run Dry; + The Hurricane Link That Never Landed
Alain berthiaume on Tue, 26th Aug 2025 8:19 am
The interesting stuff will happen only after everyone on earth is dead. I will need pick-up to patrol the territory to see early signs of them trying to reboot earth reality.
What will they do after everyone on earth is dead. Will they refill earth with oil and reboot everything, will they come up with improvements such as a substitute for plastic. Maybe they will not reboot earth. How they will hide this civilization before rebooting a new one.
Isabelle lantheir on Tue, 26th Aug 2025 9:40 am
Look like grease. Oil distillation might have happening inside the engine because of excessive heat. Distillation is a well known chemical process involving heat application. See 11:33.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czeUsE2WspU
Earth is a matrix of solid only modifiable by heat and hold together by gravity and friction. This has to be expected in such a matrix as earth.
Distillation, also classical distillation, is the process of separating the component substances of a liquid mixture of two or more chemically discrete substances; the separation process is realized by way of the selective boiling of the mixture and the condensation of the vapors in a still.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distillation
Denist teudel on Tue, 26th Aug 2025 9:59 am
Earth will always be a shitty place to live. There is no point trying to fight earth. The best option is to destroy earth as a form of collective suicide leading to the death of everyone on earth and the end of the human race. Only the chosen ones should be left on earth with some protection to study it. Everybody else should be killed.
Alain berthiaume on Tue, 26th Aug 2025 10:10 am
The crankcase ventilation system take all the volatile components of oil send them back into the combustion chamber. The oil is transformed into grease as the volatile components are being removed from the oil using the ventilation crankcase system. It is distillation of oil cause the heat generated by the combustion process.
Positive crankcase ventilation (PCV) systems— first used in the Second World War and present on most modern engines— send the crankcase gases back to the combustion chamber, as part of the vehicle emissions control, in order to reduce air pollution.
Isabelle Jean on Tue, 26th Aug 2025 10:22 am
Actions are being taken right at this moment to start killing all the population of earth.
Perth’s Coldest Day In 50 Years; Antarctica At -105.9F; Snow Closes Khardung-La; OK With Record Summer Cold; Germany Breaks Historic Cold Records As The Gas Tanks Run Dry; + The Hurricane Link That Never Landed
Only the chosen ones will live.