It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Denis Lafortune on Tue, 26th Aug 2025 11:13 am
It is really quiet out there, especially on YouTube. Someone is shutting down earth reality. It is happening a little bit faster that I thought. Someone is panicking somewhere. You don’t like my comments. You don’t like my style. I am telling too much truth about earth. I know I said that we would kill everyone on earth, I was just not expecting it to happen that fast.
Isabelle lanthier on Tue, 26th Aug 2025 2:45 pm
You forgot to charge my credit card. I receive my online purchases I made at Canadian Tire but you did not charge my credit card. I was not expecting that. Does it means I will get a protection bubble or it means I own Canada and US for myself. They even not broke my light bulb for my oven. Surely you will charge my credit after the delivery man will confirm that I have received it. I will take the free stuff, why not. When do I receive my pickup truck.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 26th Aug 2025 2:59 pm
I lied. I have a preference for the pick-up truck. I want F250 tremor with a true track deferential in the front. It does not need to be the top of the line model but it must have a rear locking differential and true track differential in the front with a diesel engine. Since I own earth, you will disable the DEF system, and all the other anti-pollutin garbage on it. t
Jean lemdire on Tue, 26th Aug 2025 2:59 pm
I lied. I have a preference for the pick-up truck. I want F250 tremor with a true track deferential in the front. It does not need to be the top of the line model but it must have a rear locking differential and true track differential in the front with a diesel engine. Since I own earth, you will disable the DEF system, and all the other anti-pollutin garbage on it. t
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xghb35O7COk
Denis trudel on Tue, 26th Aug 2025 3:21 pm
It is called a Detroit Truetrac differential. I also want a factory winch install. You put the keys in the mail box if I am not at home and put the truck in front of my house. I will run it without an immatriculation license, just to piss them off. I need the winch to pull away the dead trees that will fall down on the road after everyone on earth is dead. The color does not matter I am not a women. Not stupid color like pink or yellow.
Isabelle Jean on Tue, 26th Aug 2025 3:32 pm
By the way fuck England, fuck Europe and fuck Israel.
Alain lemdire on Tue, 26th Aug 2025 3:53 pm
I will need riffles once the populations of earth is dead. If I see an strange animal, I might want to kill it and make an autopsy on it just to make sure they are not traying ro reboot earth with different type of biological animals. You should plan for that in advance. I like these. While roaming the earth alone, it added the cinematic effect of lone warrior. This is where the winch on the pickup truck might come useful if I need to pull up a dead animal out of field of suspend it in the air for autopsy.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/aXYqmVvJDe8
You see where I am going with all these requests.
Regis trudelle on Tue, 26th Aug 2025 4:03 pm
This is what I want a see. More of this. I want the whole population of earth dead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gX3vFmuvUDk
I want the whole population of earth dead, except for the chosen ones.
Stephane laroche on Tue, 26th Aug 2025 5:20 pm
While I was shopping Canadian Tire, it was suggested to me to buy some LED light bulbs. It was in special 2 for $5.00. I said to myself why not.
Well, I just opened to box. What a surprise it is made of plastique except the the base the is aluminum. There is too much inflation and natural resources are way too much depleted. They are so depleted that making a conventional light bulb made of glass is too expensive or rapidly becoming impossible.
Everyone will die on earth, everything I see around me is pointing toward that direction. Open the hood of a car and tell me what you see, plastic everywhere it is possible.
That is what I am preparing for, the time after the dead of everyone on earth. I guarantee you that I take a car and drive down Montreal and I will see all kind of shits that point toward the end of earth reality and the death of everyone on earth.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 26th Aug 2025 5:59 pm
I finally figure out how to do a good pizza using the frozen pizza you buy at the grocery store. First the cooking instruction are not correct. First you let the pizza unthawed on a cooking plate. than you crush down the outer crush to make the pizza bigger and flatter. You then put sauce, peperoni and fromage on the part you crush down with your fingers.
Cooking is really important. It must be put in the oven at 525F and 2 inch above the bottom heating element. Cooking time is about 12 min.
Everything is shit on this planet. Absolutely everything is shit, including the cooking instructions on frozen pizza boxs.
Grahim jean on Tue, 26th Aug 2025 6:57 pm
The reason why the right angle triangle method to open a road works so well is because the soil under the horizontal side of the triangle has already been compacted by the weight of the mountain and time. Older the mountain is more compacted the soil is. You don’t have to run a steamroller to compact the soil, time and nature did that for you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfHmg6tr2xU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9VOUAi1gSHY
Jean marie on Tue, 26th Aug 2025 7:19 pm
This is one of the reason why they prefer to reboot earth reality instead of starting from scratch again. Restarting from scratch means the soil compaction will be reset to zero. Rebooting the humans instead of mountains allows them to keep the soil compaction that have been created over time and other similar variable. It is easier to hide a civilisation and reboot humans. You lose too much precious variables and datas if you start for scratch making the simulation results useless.
This is why I demanded a pickup truck and other stuff to be able to monitor when and how they will reboot, if they do.
Stephane jean on Tue, 26th Aug 2025 7:39 pm
It is guaranteed that everyone will die on earth. What are they going to reboot earth with is the real question. You need chosen ones with almost eternal life to be able to see all of this.
Denis Trudeau on Tue, 26th Aug 2025 10:49 pm
All made of steel with barely no plastic. I made previous comment about all of this before.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sI0cm87wP88
Jean Lemdire on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 12:14 am
You have to take the money off my credit card for my online purchases I made at Canadian Tire. Otherwise I will think that I own the Canadian Tire to myself. I might even think that I own Mastercard company, since it is MasterCard that refunded my money. I am completely stone, I am probably receiving another body upgrade.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 12:29 am
If I own Mastercard, it is like controlling all the banks the offer Mastercard credit cards to their customers. My owning Mastercard, it is like having some kind of leverage on the banking institution.
Isavelle jean on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 12:43 am
Here is an important question which one do I own, MasterCard or Canadian Tire or both of them.
Time will tell.
Regis Lebaume on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 1:41 am
I need to make another internet purchase to see if I own MasterCard company. Maybe I own groceries stores also. Let’s me see what I can come up with.
Jean lemdire on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 2:24 am
Don’t worry, I don’t own MasterCard or Canadian Tire compagnies and I never will. The computer algorithm had an malfunction that was in my favor this time. The next purchase my credit card will be charged.
Jean lemire on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 9:59 am
It really feel like you are inside an experiment when you do online groceries shopping. It really feel like they are collecting datas on you.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 10:05 am
They really created the SMS messages to send you an authentification code. You can have them send the authentification code through the voice phone line, but you don’t hear it very well and it is too fast. I have the feeling they invented the SMS as authentification method and will make your phone your new identification mean.
Isabelle Jean on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 10:43 am
I assume you will charge my credit card for my groceries purchases tomorrow after delivery. Right you will debit my credit card. I am rich enough if I own MasterCard corporation. This shit is really fuck up.
Jean Marie on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 10:48 am
When you do groceries shopping on the internet, you have this hypnotizing effect also. You have all these items on you computer screen with different color. It has this hypnotizing effect. You have this childish feeling when you look at your computer screen with all these products with all kind of colors.
Alain Jean on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 10:55 am
You see the last time they charged my credit card for my Canadian Tire purchase and refunded me a hour later. This time they did not charge me at all. I guess I own Sobeys grocery chain. I will know more tomorrow after delivery.
Can I order my pick-up truck online and have it delivered to me. Just asking. This shit is so fucked up.
Heline marcotte on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 10:59 am
Don’t worry they will charge my credit card tomorrow after they deliver the groceries to my house. Everything is fine and I am not panicking, I promise.
Alain Lemdire on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 11:27 am
They are doing what you would do to restructure civilization to save oil. They now have special warehouse. You pass your internet order and it is prepared from a warehouse. This way they can guaranteed that you order will always be correct and the products purchased are available. It save on fuel as one delivery truck covert a bigger area and can deliver to more customer. You optimism the fuel usage. They probably have a software that chose the best delivery route in order to save fuel, that was one of the purpose of google map.
Denis Marie on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 11:36 am
I eat too much and I don’t shit enough. It is like the food is disappearing inside of me. Where does the food goes if I don’t shit it out.
Graham Bell on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 11:55 am
I eat since Saturday, 3 lbs. of chips, 2 poutine ( 1.5 Kg of fries + 0,4 Kg of cheese) , 3 pizza (1.9 Kg). I might have shit the equivalent of 1.5 pizza so far.
Isabelle Jean on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 12:15 pm
It is a violation of the principle of conservation of mass if I shit less Kg that I have eaten.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 12:27 pm
Can I buy a pick-up truck with my magical credit card. MasterCard shares holders will pay for my pick-up truck. This is basically what is happening each time I purchase something with my credit card and I am not charged for it. MasterCard shares holders are paying my purchases. If it is no MasterCard shares holders paying for my purchases, it is Sobeys shares holders paying for my purchases. I am basically connected directly to the wealth stored inside the stock market when I am not charged my purchases.
Natalie Jean on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 12:37 pm
I am basically bypassing the whole financial system slavery rules and use it for my personal benefit. The implications of this are really big. See above. I use what they created, the stock market as a tool for my personal benefit only. I am bypassing all the rules they have created, including the accounting rules. It makes me the real owner of the wealth stored inside the stock market.
Jean Marchand on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 4:39 pm
Good new Canadian tire charged my credit card. I don’t have to come and save earth. You can all go fuck yourself, you will all die.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 4:45 pm
I am a free man, I don’t have to help earth and I can watch its population die like fucking dogs.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 4:49 pm
I will pay for my stuff and walk. I want the cadavers of all the population of earth lay in front of my feet. This has no price for me. Fuck, UK, Europe and Israel.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 4:54 pm
I am not after money. I am after your life and cadavers. This is my real motivation. I want the whole population of earth dead, this is what I am after, not money. This is why I will never be your king.
Jean marie on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 5:01 pm
As long as I find dust on my floors I know that the conservation of mass algorithm is still working well. I know I will get your cadavers. I just have to wait. Stupid cock suckers.
Helene hamal on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 5:12 pm
It is an oversimplification but what will kill everyone on earth is the algorithm of conservation of mass. It is guaranteed that everyone will die on earth. The interesting part will happen after everyone is dead on earth, will they reboot earth, will they created something different than humans, will they kept the current wild life alive,
Denis trudel on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 5:21 pm
As long as the conservation of mass algorithm is holding tight, earth reality will stay alive no matter what you do to try to destroy it such as long necks, funny hands, funny hair styles, funny packages colors, killing trees and so on. You are not targeting the right things. You have to target mathematical algorithm such as the conservation of mass, thermal algorithm, gravity, friction mathematical model and so on. I am still winning you are still losing. The interesting part will happen after everyone is dead on earth.
Jea marco on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 5:27 pm
I don’t have access to new vehicle, I guarantee you that I open the hood, look at the engine and I can see right away that the conservation of mass algorithm is still functional and doing the job its was designed to do. I open the hood of a new car and I bet I can see the death of everyone on earth.
Isabelle Jean on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 5:54 pm
It does not matter how much you fuck with my internet groceries shopping web page. The fact still is that you have no been able to shutdown or modified the algorithm of conservation of mass. My floors are still dirty as fuck so is my bath tub. All you are doing is fucking pointless and a waste of time. I know it you know it also. Ukraine war pointless, Israel gaza war pointless, funny hair style pointless, funny ears pointless, installation of Carney as prime minister pointless, installation of Trump pointless.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 6:07 pm
you are also wasting your time with your safety crap. There is no such thing as beings feeding of the fear energy coming out of human. It is purely a mathematical simulation. Either you have access to the algorithms or you don’t. Nothing else matter. They will know you are faking it with your long neck, funny hands, funny hair style. 5 years and no real results and you are still doubling down on a fail strategy.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 6:12 pm
Maybe you were right. After everything else failed, maybe you should let me use my credit card and not being charged for it. But hey you are just a fucking loser with no IQ.
Isabell lanthier on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 6:19 pm
The fun stuff start after all the death of earth population. If I am still in a flesh body, I will need a pick-up truck to monitor what is happening and catch early on any new modifications they are trying to do to earth reality. Make sure that you modify the truck so the fuel tank is always full and I don’t need to refuel at gas station. Modify the entropic degradation algorithm so the truck does not rust and aged with time. It is your fucking call. Stupid fucking cock suckers.
alain lmeire on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 6:27 pm
Make sure the pick-up truck algorithm is coming with no wear and tears and can last for ever. Make sure that I don’t have to do any maintenance on it. Basically create for me a mathematical pick-uo truck. I told you what I want for pickup truck, TrueTrac in front, locker in back and a winch in the front. It is your call, I don’t care for some reason.
Cyrille alain on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 6:28 pm
I bet you are not powerful enough to do what I am asking above, I bet you are just a fucking loser
Grahe jamack on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 7:02 pm
Normally you would consider that as a personal insult. Normally you fire the guy right there or you kill him in front of everyone. Normally you would feel deeply insulted by that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiL2MYtfgn8
Bertand Jamal on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 7:10 pm
I am still waiting for real results. My floor is still dirty because of the conservation of mass. Same with my bath tub. I am still waiting for real measurable results. I guess you are not powerful enough to build just for me the pick-up I asked you above.
Densi Trudel on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 7:23 pm
Making a joke like that, that is not funny, should also be seen as an insult. You fire him or you kill him on spot. Trying to portrait yourself as someone cool with who you can party hard with is also an insult in my book. Trying to dominate the rest of the group by forcing them to laught at a bad joke is an attempt to dominate other with useless verbal skill. It should be seen as a direct challenge to your authority and should be taken really seriously.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r970ku-LSmE
Stephane laporte on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 7:31 pm
earth is fucking unmanageable. People are too mentally retarded and lack any form of moral. Plus earth is based on the conservation of mass that alone makes earth unmanaged. I am even not talking about the fact that earth is a matrix of solid only modifiable by heat and hold together by gravity and friction. Every one will die on earth. What will happen after that is the interesting part.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 27th Aug 2025 8:36 pm
they are doing it on purpose to give bad cooking instruction on the frozen pizza box. As if they want us to stop earth cheese and meat.
If you know what you are doing, you can have a good tasting pizza with full stuffing with peperoni and cheese.