[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'B')eneath the chart it says:

"Although less challenging, Divided Attention and Sustainable Development shall also require considerable investment effort."

Note the, "Although less challenging." That means he believes those two scenarios are do-able, given sufficient investment.

I repeat: Nowhere in this document does he say 2010 is forecast to be the peak. That is ace's interpretation - and it is an incorrect one.

[TheDude]

Hmm, the title in that graph in the original is "AS NOVAS OFERTAS ANUNCIADAS AINDA NÃO ATENDEM A DEMANDA NO LONGO PRAZO," Ace has neatly translated that into "NEW ANNOUNCED PRODUCTION IS YET TO MEET LONG TERM DEMAND" but when I feed it into Google Translator I get "NEW OFFERS ANNOUNCED YET MEET THE DEMAND IN THE LONG RUN."

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')n fact, the chart ace used to claim that Gabrielli was stating 2010 was the peak, actually shows Petrobras forecasting three scenarios in which production increases!
But having seen other posts by ace in TOD, I've come to expect such dishonesty from him.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'T')he chart seems clear and easy to understand. I hope I have this right:

The lines on the chart heading up into the upper right indicate differing Petrobras estimates of worldwide demand. The cliff colored yellow/orange shows what the world can expect from supply.

Is there something else to read from this chart?

[truecougarblue]

NÃO ATENDEM

Babelfish gives, "do not take care of", and when I read that in context my limited portugese give that sentiment. (fluent Spanish and Italian, I "skipped" Portugese)

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I') posted this for informational purposes. If you got a problem with it why don't you take it up with him, over at TOD???

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'B')eneath the chart it says:

"Although less challenging, Divided Attention and Sustainable Development shall also require considerable investment effort."

Note the, "Although less challenging." That means he believes those two scenarios are do-able, given sufficient investment.

I repeat: Nowhere in this document does he say 2010 is forecast to be the peak. That is ace's interpretation - and it is an incorrect one.

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'H')mm, the title in that graph in the original is "AS NOVAS OFERTAS ANUNCIADAS AINDA NÃO ATENDEM A DEMANDA NO LONGO PRAZO," Ace has neatly translated that into "NEW ANNOUNCED PRODUCTION IS YET TO MEET LONG TERM DEMAND" but when I feed it into Google Translator I get "NEW OFFERS ANNOUNCED YET MEET THE DEMAND IN THE LONG RUN."

[americandream]

Look at the chart. It speaks volumes for the state of mental disconnect between where we're headed and the depths we may have to plumb to run that show. I suspect that one would have to embrace your sub-primed bubble like optimism to ignore the clear inferences and look at where bubble mania has taken us and is continuing to take us.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'B')eneath the chart it says:

"Although less challenging, Divided Attention and Sustainable Development shall also require considerable investment effort."

Note the, "Although less challenging." That means he believes those two scenarios are do-able, given sufficient investment.

I repeat: Nowhere in this document does he say 2010 is forecast to be the peak. That is ace's interpretation - and it is an incorrect one.

[eXpat]

Mr Gabrielli gave an interview to a Brazilian newspaper on Jan 10, this year, the link to the original article is this:
http://diariodonordeste.globo.com/materia.asp?codigo=717730
Here is what is relevant to this topic (Bold is mine)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')i]Mesmo considerando a entrada de combustíveis limpos?

Mesmo considerando isso. Por quê? Porque a economia vai crescer mais que um 1% em média. E todo esse crescimento adicional leva em conta os novos combustíveis. De onde vem essa necessidade de 55 milhões a 65 milhões de barris? Do declínio da produção atual. Como há esse declínio, haverá a possibilidade de repor esse petróleo.

Não se corre o risco de o preço do petróleo cair muito lá na frente com sua possível substituição?

Não. A nossa visão é a de que o preço do petróleo vai cair sim, mas em termos relativos. Hoje o petróleo representa cerca de 33% da matriz energética mundial. Lá por 2030, a commodity representará 28%. E quem vai substituir? O carvão.

O carvão?

Sim, infelizmente o carvão. E consequentemente, em 2030, carvão, petróleo e gás natural vão continuar fornecendo 2/3 da matriz energética mundial.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'A')t 7% field decline, we've already found some 26 MBO/Day since 2005, adding perhaps 3 new Saudi Arabia's in just the last 5 years. Adding nearly the same amount in twice the time certainly sounds reasonable.

[americandream]

You look at the graph, you look at the projected shortfall and you contemplate the world of tomorrow with vast areas of Asia under the spell of Western consumerism. I suspect you'ld have to be of the same magnitude of optimism that saw what were apparently smart business fellows investing vast sums in real estate swathes owned by hordes of the un and casually employed. Or is that better termed stupidity?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', 'M')r Gabrielli gave an interview to a Brazilian newspaper on Jan 10, this year, the link to the original article is this:
http://diariodonordeste.globo.com/materia.asp?codigo=717730
Here is what is relevant to this topic (Bold is mine)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')i]Mesmo considerando a entrada de combustíveis limpos?

Mesmo considerando isso. Por quê? Porque a economia vai crescer mais que um 1% em média. E todo esse crescimento adicional leva em conta os novos combustíveis. De onde vem essa necessidade de 55 milhões a 65 milhões de barris? Do declínio da produção atual. Como há esse declínio, haverá a possibilidade de repor esse petróleo.

Não se corre o risco de o preço do petróleo cair muito lá na frente com sua possível substituição?

Não. A nossa visão é a de que o preço do petróleo vai cair sim, mas em termos relativos. Hoje o petróleo representa cerca de 33% da matriz energética mundial. Lá por 2030, a commodity representará 28%. E quem vai substituir? O carvão.

O carvão?

Sim, infelizmente o carvão. E consequentemente, em 2030, carvão, petróleo e gás natural vão continuar fornecendo 2/3 da matriz energética mundial.

[eXpat]

It is good to remember as well, that Brazil is NOT Saudi Arabia. One of the great and lauded achievements (in Brazil) of the administration of President Lula and Petrobras is to have finally attained energetic independence. Oily may be dismayed with that point of view, but Brazilians intend to use that new discovered oil to fuel their own economy and to keep at a minimum the imports, not to flow foreign markets with brazilian oil (and get some battered dollars in return).
President Lula has gone as far as to say that the discoveries of Petrobras is the second independence of Brazil
http://jc.uol.com.br/canal/cotidiano/economia/noticia/2009/05/02/lula-diz-que-exploracao-da-presal-e-a-segunda-independencia-do-brasil-186239.php
In other words behold the Export Land Model in all its glory.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'A')t 7% field decline, we've already found some 26 MBO/Day since 2005, adding perhaps 3 new Saudi Arabia's in just the last 5 years. Adding nearly the same amount in twice the time certainly sounds reasonable.

[AirlinePilot]

Short,

Are you claiming that the oil found since 2005 is now in full commercial production?

[Velociryx]

Oh dear god...here we go again...

*weary sigh*

-=Vel=-

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'L')ook at the chart. It speaks volumes for the state of mental disconnect between where we're headed and the depths we may have to plumb to run that show.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'S')hort,

Are you claiming that the oil found since 2005 is now in full commercial production?

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'H')ell, it speaks volumes for the state of mental disconnect needed to ignore supply/demand.

[Homesteader]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'B')eneath the chart it says:

"Although less challenging, Divided Attention and Sustainable Development shall also require considerable investment effort."

Note the, "Although less challenging." That means he believes those two scenarios are do-able, given sufficient investment.

I repeat: Nowhere in this document does he say 2010 is forecast to be the peak. That is ace's interpretation - and it is an incorrect one.