[Dukkha]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's very simple. IEA supply models are based not on supply but on demand. They consider the amount of economic growth that is predicted/wanted until 2030, and then they look at the historical connection between economic growth and oil use growth.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dukkha', 'S')ure but presumably (or perhaps not??) they have to make the numbers add up.

[Dukkha]

Ah! I see now. So to preface the report "A close study of the numbers shows we're in the shit. But don't worry because everything will be just dandy...because...well, everything will be just dandy." Lucky these guys are in charge, otherwise we'd be really screwed.

[seldom_seen]

I remember, somewhere in the dusty archives of this forum, where talk of a global decline rate of 6-9% would be written off as alarmist, or too pessimistic. I recall the consensus being somewhere around 2-3%.

The concerning thing about this report is that it is quite possible that the IEA will come out underestimating by a wide margin, and in reality we could have a high teens or 20% decline in global production.

Same thing happened with Canterell..."Yep it's going in to decline...should be around 5-8%." A few months later, "Yeah...hmm. Not looking good." A few more months, "Hells bells! grab your hats...we've got a 20% decline rate at Canterell!"

[FreedomSlave]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'T')his has been my latest fear, that the economic downturn would mean little investment into new production, meaning existing production would decline, possibly faster than demand destruction.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') personally wonder whether lower oil prices will exacerbate the oil production limits we seemed to be reaching. My own beliefs were that a geologic peak in oil production would not occur until about 2012 - 2014, assuming demand increased at the predicted rates. The problem with dropping demand and dropping oil prices seems to be that necessary investment in new oil production in offshore fields and harder to reach develop places will not occur, and thus, oil production will in fact decline bc existing fields will decline. It seems plausible to me we could get a feedback loop where demand for oil and declines in existing fields "race for the bottom" causing serious economic harm.

[neocone]

1) The endless expansion of the economy cannot go on forever... at 1% growth give it a million years and our society would consume a sizeable chunk of the Universe's energy and soon replace God as the Almighty. This is no joke.

2) As corrolary to 1) any future capitalistic gains can only be made at the expense of someone else

3) This is exactly as Nature intended

Now you're all gonna whine about it?

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', ' ') Perhaps pols will just attempt to ignore the ramifications, and continue to pray to the great God Ghawar to deliver them.

[Ayame]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'I') remember, somewhere in the dusty archives of this forum, where talk of a global decline rate of 6-9% would be written off as alarmist, or too pessimistic. I recall the consensus being somewhere around 2-3%.

[Micki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'I') remember, somewhere in the dusty archives of this forum, where talk of a global decline rate of 6-9% would be written off as alarmist, or too pessimistic. I recall the consensus being somewhere around 2-3%.

The concerning thing about this report is that it is quite possible that the IEA will come out underestimating by a wide margin, and in reality we could have a high teens or 20% decline in global production.

Same thing happened with Canterell..."Yep it's going in to decline...should be around 5-8%." A few months later, "Yeah...hmm. Not looking good." A few more months, "Hells bells! grab your hats...we've got a 20% decline rate at Canterell!"

[JohnDenver]

Here we go again. The ever popular doomer favorite, Hubbert's Cliff:





The best argument against cliff-like decline rates for the world is Hubbert theory itself. All large oil producing regions, like continents, exhibit long plateaus and roughly symmetric Hubbert curves. There's no reason to expect the world to be any different. Colin Campbell predicts a post-peak decline rate of 1.8% from 2010 to 2030, and Jean Laherrere predicts a post-peak decline rate of 1% from 2015 to 2040.
Details

AirlinePilot, "The Dude" and other amateurs at this site have a very confused understanding of the different types of decline rates, and constantly confuse them to goose the doom level around here.

Maybe "The Dude" or one of the other unemployed web addicts here can explain why their views of the post-peak decline rate hold more authority than the views of Campbell & Laherrere.

[galacticsurfer]

John Denver,

I was playing with the idea in another post the other day (borrowed from Memmel's ideas) that the high tech to get lots more oil out of the ground fast increases decline rate when it does start. It just maintains a plateau or increases production way beyond a natural Hubbert curve. I was trying to compare this with the artificial financial instruments which kept the economy going beyond when a natural recession would have occurred and instead gave us a possible depression. The same thing could happen here with PO, massive catastrophic decline. In fact if we had not had such massive debt to finance endless bubble economies then the drawdown with high tech would not have occurred so fast so the whole procews is reinfgorcing between finace tech and petroleum tech. In point of fact it is all computer tech driving both, accelerating die off.

[RSFB]

This is getting interesting!

http://www.iea.org/

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')EA Statement on Unauthorised Press Coverage of World Energy Outlook 2008
29 October 2008
The Financial Times carried a cover page article this morning and a second article on page 4 allegedly reporting on the findings of the forthcoming WEO 2008. This article was drafted without any consultation with the IEA. It appears to be based on an early version of a draft from several months ago that was subsequently revised and updated. The numbers in the article can be misleading and should not be quoted or considered to be official IEA results. We are dismayed that such a comprehensive and important IEA report was made public without our input and verification.

The IEA will present the final and accurate results of the World Energy Outlook 2008 officially as planned at a press conference in London on 12 November. At that time, we will be happy to discuss the results and their implications for the global energy and climate in full detail.

[kokoda]

So here is the problem ... aging oil fields need a massive influx of investment simply to slow the decline.

Unfortunately the global economic meltdown means that the money for this massive investment no longer exists. Then of course you have global warming apparantly excelerating.

Seriously ... just how screwed are we?

[Tanada]

Have you not heard? World civilization is schedualed to collapse December 23, 2012, because someone interprated the Mayan calender to say so.

http://www.survive2012.com/possibilities.php

I suggest taking all of the above with about a ton of salt

[MrBean]

Let's factor in also the country/net export model. What does all this mean in practice?

Given the coming dollar troubles and impossibility to keep funding ballooning US debt, there is a fair chance that global oil market will shut down allready in 2009. Maybe latest 2012 :D. (C)rude awakening coming...

[ROCKMAN]

Good point galactic.

There is a valid reason why Hubert may be off some with regards to the production drop off. Enhanced recovery methods have changed radically since his time so this isn't an indictment of his skills. Many off the mega fields would show a relatively slow decline rate if they were allowed to deplete naturally. Ghawar and Cantarell are two good examples. Water injection at Ghawar began long ago and has maintained a much higher flow rate then would have been seen otherwise. It also contributed significantly to ult recovery. Horizontal redevelopment in the field in the late 90's also aided greatly in maintaining higher production rates. Similarly, nitrogen injection at Cantarell has had the same effect. W/o this pressure maintenance the field would have had a decline profile consistent with expectations learned in Hubert's day.

But the downside of both techniques is that they’ll also generate very rapid decline rates when the end is near. The SUDDEN and rapid decline rate at Cantarell is not at all surprising to the NON-AMETURES (been a petroleum geologist/reservoir engineer for 33 years). At Ghawar there have been consistent reports of rapidly increasing water cuts. This is a common precursor to a rapid production decline lack of details doesn’t allow speculation on how quickly we might see an accelerating decline curve.

All the mega fields have been subject to intensive secondary recovery efforts. Had Hubert known of such techniques and their effect on decline curves, especially near the end of field life, I suspect he night have also projected a bit more cliff then slope. How much different is difficult to quantify but it would definitely look different to my NON-AMATURE eyes.

[galacticsurfer]

Considering 2012 and other astrological "plays", correlation or causation?

Supposing the ancients (babylon, Egypt, Hindus, Mayans, Druids) all had a global culture based on staring at the stars and interpreting what they saw in terms of their personal experience. This got passed down to us but due to our culture belittled and ignored. Now was there correlation or causation to their observations. Maybe the situation could be turned around. I could presume that the planets or stars are doing such and such because I did something .... Now that would be patently absurd and paranoid right?

Do planets or stars control us or our actions or is it just a mirror of our actions in a fractal sense and some ancients noticed the fractal imagery and learned how to interpret it, like other oracular methods and use it for seeing into the future as the planets have a predictable trajectory and we don't?

Fractals are a new mathematical area but a standard occult method "As above so below". We draw parallels as in fables and fairy tales as well as in astrology. Analogies are much more holistic than sicentific formulas and proofs but math, when it is comprehensive enough can represent reality. However having the intuition to do this is rare. Thisis the integration of the old culture and the modern. A synthesis is necessary so we do not go dwon in flames. Female intuition of the ancients plus male logic(math and science) bring us to a higher level of knowledge so that we might be able to survive the coming difficulties.

[ROCKMAN]

Interesting expose galactic. But how does" Female intuition of the ancients plus male logic(math and science)" bring us to a 50%+ divorce rate? Perhaps female intuition isn't enough to offset male "logic".

[ohanian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'H')ave you not heard? World civilization is schedualed to collapse December 23, 2012, because someone interprated the Mayan calender to say so.

[RSFB]

It's funny to watch people discussing astrology while ignoring IEA's statement that this report was just an unapproved old draft.