Question, with Mexico, the UK, Norway et al is serious decline where are these increases in production coming from SPECIFICALLY that replace not only declines but net an actual increase in world production?
Cantarell's declines year over year alone take a bite around 275,000 bbl/d off the world market. the UK and Norway have also undergone substantial declines in the last year, though I don't have the figures at hand. Combined IIRC the top 10 post peak countries have lost about 1Mbbl/d in production over the last year.
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THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 2 (merged) A
Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b
by Tanada » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 20:01:58
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b
by idiom » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 20:12:30
Anyone have a graph of GDP, Oil production and population for the world?
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b
by TonyPrep » Fri 22 Aug 2008, 04:19:36
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'J')ohnDenver posted the graphs on the last page.
... Oil consumption was flat from the late seventies to early nineties, while real GDP grew, in the only self contained economy we know of.
That graph was oil production, not consumption. And it didn't even show flat production for 10 years, it showed falling production for a few years, then increasing production. The period of falling production was only about 4 years. Of course, the consumption graph will not be too much different but it will not show "essentially flat" consumption for a 10 year period. For at least half of that period, production, and consumption, was rising quite quickly. Conservation and efficiencies were forced upon the developed nations. But those factors can only play a limited role for a limited time.... Oil consumption was flat from the late seventies to early nineties, while real GDP grew, in the only self contained economy we know of.
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b
by wisconsin_cur » Fri 22 Aug 2008, 04:56:19
I can function, without any obvious change, on a decreasing input of calories for some time. For a while there might even be positive consequences. I might begin to look more "healthy" as I loose some weight. I might even get more done initally... especially if over eating led to more naps and bad health.
Eventually, however, the fat stores are used. My face looks thinner. Muscle begins to be consumed. I get less done because I tire easily. If, however, you threaten me enough I can still work. I can still build your bridge over the river Kwai and I can still move bodies around at the death camp.
Eventually, however, I run out of muscle for my body to consume and my organs begin to shut down. Then I die.
Just because GDP can increase for a short time while oil production/consumption decreases (even on a global scale) does not mean that it can continue for very long. If a global market begins to fail, then I suspect the lifespan of that growth would decrease even faster.
Eventually the machinery of growth slows, then we begin to consume the "fat" of the system, then the muscle of the system and then the system breaks apart.
It is time to make arrangements that will survive the current economic system.
Eventually, however, the fat stores are used. My face looks thinner. Muscle begins to be consumed. I get less done because I tire easily. If, however, you threaten me enough I can still work. I can still build your bridge over the river Kwai and I can still move bodies around at the death camp.
Eventually, however, I run out of muscle for my body to consume and my organs begin to shut down. Then I die.
Just because GDP can increase for a short time while oil production/consumption decreases (even on a global scale) does not mean that it can continue for very long. If a global market begins to fail, then I suspect the lifespan of that growth would decrease even faster.
Eventually the machinery of growth slows, then we begin to consume the "fat" of the system, then the muscle of the system and then the system breaks apart.
It is time to make arrangements that will survive the current economic system.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b
by yesplease » Fri 22 Aug 2008, 06:48:09
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'J')ohnDenver posted the graphs on the last page.
... Oil consumption was flat from the late seventies to early nineties, while real GDP grew, in the only self contained economy we know of.
That graph was oil production, not consumption.... Oil consumption was flat from the late seventies to early nineties, while real GDP grew, in the only self contained economy we know of.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'A')nd it didn't even show flat production for 10 years, it showed falling production for a few years, then increasing production. The period of falling production was only about 4 years.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
