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THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 2 (merged) A

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b

Postby copious.abundance » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 21:56:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', 'H')mmmmm seems Germany has not cut back on electricity production. *scratches chin*

Without even intending to, you have further proven my point.

During the time (1991-2004) when Germany's economy grew by at least 38%, even electricity consumption remained flat.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', 'S')o when we can perhaps look at countries not making huge improvements from moving from Marxism then we can have another wee chat about energy and GDP.

Yes I'm sure the transition of the old East Germany from Marxism to something more efficient has had some sort of effect.

But if you think Germany might not be a good example, there's always Japan. No post-Marxist transition here.

Between 1998 and 2005, electricity consumption in Japan was basically flat.

Japan electricity consumption
Image
Source

And yet, between the end of 1997 and the end of 2005, the economy of Japan grew from 131,477.50 billion yen to 139,417.40 billion yen in real terms, a rise of 6% (Source). So, once again, not only is increased fossil fuel consumption not necessary for economic growth, increased overall energy use is not even necessary for economic growth.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
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http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b

Postby mos6507 » Thu 14 Aug 2008, 01:53:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')So, once again, not only is increased fossil fuel consumption not necessary for economic growth, increased overall energy use is not even necessary for economic growth.


I would qualify that by saying some growth is possible without increased energy use for a limited span of time. I don't think you can follow the trend outward indefinitely. Obviously there are limits.
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b

Postby TheDude » Thu 14 Aug 2008, 02:18:28

Japan's GDP is 73% services.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')apan's service sector accounts for about three-fourths of its total economic output. Banking, insurance, real estate, retailing, transportation, and telecommunications are all major industries such as Mitsubishi UFJ, Mizuho, NTT, TEPCO, Nomura, Mitsubishi Estate, Tokio Marine, JR East, Seven & I, ANA counting as one of the largest companies in the world. The Koizumi government set Japan Post, one of the country's largest providers of savings and insurance services for privatization by 2014. The six major keiretsus are the Mitsubishi, Sumitomo, Fuyo, Mitsui, Dai-Ichi Kangyo and Sanwa Groups. Japan is home to 326 companies from the Forbes Global 2000 or 16.3% (as of 2006).


Not exactly energy intensive endeavors.
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b

Postby s0ul5 » Thu 14 Aug 2008, 02:58:35

Global perspective, OilFinder2?

The energy spend on producing Japan's raw materials (and a lot of food) is spend in other countries and doesn't show on Japan's statistics.

Of countries whose main portion of GDP is from industry sector exports, how many has a flat energy consumption AND a growing GDP?
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b

Postby Starvid » Thu 14 Aug 2008, 04:39:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'I')'ve listened to enough of your garbage. <IGNORE>

If that isn't the biggest symptom of denial I've ever seen, I don't know what it is! :lol:
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b

Postby dorlomin » Thu 14 Aug 2008, 04:41:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')Yes I'm sure the transition of the old East Germany from Marxism to something more efficient has had some sort of effect.
You think?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')But if you think Germany might not be a good example, there's always Japan. No post-Marxist transition here.

Between 1998 and 2005, electricity consumption in Japan was basically flat.

Japan electricity consumption
Image
Source

And yet, between the end of 1997 and the end of 2005, the economy of Japan grew from 131,477.50 billion yen to 139,417.40 billion yen in real terms, a rise of 6% (Source). So, once again, not only is increased fossil fuel consumption not necessary for economic growth, increased overall energy use is not even necessary for economic growth.

From your source.

Natural gas, not very flat
Image

Coal, not very flat
Image

Oil, falls
Image

So tell me about flat contribution of fossil fuels again?



Finaly we have this graph, which to be fair, when combined with oil does show a more limited growth in total energy consumed.


Image


Finaly I of the opinion there is a positive corrolation between energy and economic activity but due to inherent inefficiencies in the system this corrolation is not a 1 to 1 relationship and Id say it is possible of reasonable shifts in consumption to be amoralated provided they are planned for and ther is time to adjust. Perhaps even 10% drops in available net energy. But it still remains a positive corrolation over time.
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b

Postby Starvid » Thu 14 Aug 2008, 04:42:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'N')o, increased fossil fuel consumption is not a prerequisite for economic growth.

Dude, anyone who has ever studied economics or especially development economics (or whatever it's called in English) already knows this.

Initially there is a strong connection between the two but after you reach a certain economic level they decouple. This is well known.
Last edited by Starvid on Thu 14 Aug 2008, 04:46:13, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b

Postby Starvid » Thu 14 Aug 2008, 04:45:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', 'H')mmmmm seems Germany has not cut back on electricity production. *scratches chin*

So when we can perhaps look at countries not making huge improvements from moving from Marxism then we can have another wee chat about energy and GDP.

Just as it is well known that you get a decoupling between economic growth and energy at a certain developmental level, it is well known that there usually is no, or a weaker, decoupling between economic growth and electricity consumption.

This is because the richer nations grow, the larger the fraction of energy which is used in the form of electricity becomes.

And with the coming of plug-ins and EV's, this trend should continue.
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b

Postby JohnDenver » Thu 14 Aug 2008, 21:08:04

A broader example of growth despite stagnant oil production.

From 1979 to 1993 there was no net growth in oil production. In fact, there was a huge drop in oil production, and much less oil was produced than if oil had simply plateaued for 14 years at 1979 levels:
Image

Nevertheless, in real terms, the global economy grew steadily throughout that period (statistics from the World Bank's "World Development Indicators Database"):
Image
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b

Postby r101958 » Thu 14 Aug 2008, 21:31:32

Production and consumption are two different things. Consumption was still increasing. Let's not confuse the issue.
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b

Postby s0ul5 » Fri 15 Aug 2008, 02:05:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('r101958', 'P')roduction and consumption are two different things. Consumption was still increasing. Let's not confuse the issue.


OVERALL energy production & consumption were both rising, I might add. :)
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b

Postby JohnDenver » Fri 15 Aug 2008, 06:30:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('r101958', 'P')roduction and consumption are two different things. Consumption was still increasing.


Prove it.
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b

Postby TonyPrep » Mon 18 Aug 2008, 06:03:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')here are many countries whose oil consumption is flat or declining for some time, and yet their economies have continued to grow. This has been discussed at length here.
But there are no examples of self contained economies doing so. All countries are now embedded in a global economy, where energy used in production of what is consumed in one country is actually expended in another country.

Oil consumption almost always rises when global real GDP rises, with only short lived exceptions.[/quote]
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b

Postby TonyPrep » Mon 18 Aug 2008, 06:14:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Virginian', 'Y')EP! And worse Total Liquids Often includes ETHANOL!

Don't ask me why, but I have a sneaking suspicion the 890,000 bpd rise in production last month wasn't all because of increased ethanol production. :razz:
Of late, the IEA estimates are almost always decreased over time. There may, ultimately, have been no rise at all in July. That's the problem with discussing the first estimate. There is a lot of hand waving, then the original estimate gets revised and revised and revised but by then it's off the radar.

It certainly looks as though production has edged slightly higher this year but the picture is very vague so far. The EIA's STEO has production barely above 86 mbpd, for May and June (never reached 86 before that), with a bigger jump in July (by 590 kbpd), though which way that estimate will get revised is anyone's guess.
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b

Postby yesplease » Wed 20 Aug 2008, 07:40:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')here are many countries whose oil consumption is flat or declining for some time, and yet their economies have continued to grow. This has been discussed at length here.
But there are no examples of self contained economies doing so. All countries are now embedded in a global economy, where energy used in production of what is consumed in one country is actually expended in another country.

Oil consumption almost always rises when global real GDP rises, with only short lived exceptions.
The world is pretty self contained as far as economies go, and for about a decade oil consumption remained essentially flat, yet GDP grew, as is illustrated above. Granted, that was only a decade and turned around due to a huge drop in oil prices, but that doesn't mean oil consumption can't stay flat or drop for longer than a decade w/ GDP growing.
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b

Postby TonyPrep » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 03:47:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')here are many countries whose oil consumption is flat or declining for some time, and yet their economies have continued to grow. This has been discussed at length here.
But there are no examples of self contained economies doing so. All countries are now embedded in a global economy, where energy used in production of what is consumed in one country is actually expended in another country.

Oil consumption almost always rises when global real GDP rises, with only short lived exceptions.
The world is pretty self contained as far as economies go, and for about a decade oil consumption remained essentially flat, yet GDP grew, as is illustrated above. Granted, that was only a decade and turned around due to a huge drop in oil prices, but that doesn't mean oil consumption can't stay flat or drop for longer than a decade w/ GDP growing.
Not sure what you mean by "essentially flat". Do you mean growing slowly? Oil consumption decreased between 1979 and 1983. Apart from that, there have only been much shorter periods of oil consumption decline, amid a steadily growing consumption.

You're right, it doesn't mean that oil consumption can't decrease for a longer period without causing a drop in GDP.
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b

Postby yesplease » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 09:57:05

JohnDenver posted the graphs on the last page.
Image
Image

The same thing as what this link from Wikipedia and this link from a blog show. Oil consumption was flat from the late seventies to early nineties, while real GDP grew, in the only self contained economy we know of.
Last edited by yesplease on Thu 21 Aug 2008, 16:07:15, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b

Postby TheDude » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 13:31:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'J')ohnDenver posted the graphs on the last page.

The same thing as what this link from Wikipedia and this link from a blog show. Oil consumption was flat from the late seventies to early nineties, while real GDP grew, in the only self contained economy we know of.


Graph 1 doesn't show GDP, #2 is a 404 error.

Try this one:

Image

JD's point is that a decrease in supply doesn't necessarily equate to a global economic collapse. It just means severe recession. If it's temporary.

Also that early 80s drop was when the US finally phased out almost all use of oil for electrical generation, and made big strides in CAFE standards. And it was temporary.
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Re: IEA: Production up 890,000 bbl in July to 87.8 million b

Postby yesplease » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 16:04:43

It doesn't even mean severe recession, at least globally. This link should work for GDP. Even the "severe recession" in the US you speak of was about a -2% change in real GDP over the course of a year as per your graph w/ most of the other years showing a ~2.5-4% increase with a couple remaining flat. On average I'm guessing there was a ~2-3% increase in GDP/year while oil consumption remained flat.

The drop in consumption was temporary because the increase in price was temporary. I don't see how we would've seen otherwise w/ a permanent increase in price.
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