[copious.abundance]

Incidentally, not only was oil consumption in Germany flat from 1991 to 2001, coal consumption in Germany actually declined during the same time.



Consumption of natural gas in Germany did rise during this time (~2.7 tcf to ~ 3.2 tcf), but IIRC, most electricity in Germany is still generated by coal.



And yet, as I said, Germany's economy grew 38% during this time.

No, increased fossil fuel consumption is not a prerequisite for economic growth.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'G')ermany like America has it's good manufactured in China, Malaysia, Singapore, Mexico, El Salvador.

Try comparing their energy use with GDP. I'll bet you get different results

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'P')er capita industrial output is a measure of market value, not product mass, volume, density, weight, or energy consumption. The Germans make 1 million Mercedes. The Chinese 1 billion bicycles. I wonder which has more value? Which uses more energy to produce?

[bkwillia]

German fuel and energy taxes are among the highest in the world. It is no accident that oil demand has fallen. That their GDP has risen is a function of Germany's hard workings and innovative population.

While you you see that high taxes can reduce oil consumption, the reverse is also true. Fuel subsidies and price caps will increase demand. Obviously it is the balance of these two forces in the developing and developed world that matters, not the consumption patterns of the most energy conscious nations.

Nations like the US or Japan could introduce high fuel taxes like Germany and cut huge demand, but this would just accelerate what peak oil is already doing to these economies. This is not politically viable and the reverse is more likely to happen. Both presidential candidtates want to cut gasoline price with various interventions.

The main reason Germany is so far ahead of the game it that it has very little fossile fuel resource and depends on Russia for imports. Germany already went to war for oil, so they know they have to prepare for peak oil as it will hit them harder that most countries.

Getting back to the topic of this thread, the IEA indicates that supply has grown by 1% after prices rose 100% year over year. This is barely statistically relevant as a supply response. Show me the yearly data at the end of 2008 and then we can talk about supply growth.

[s0ul5]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'S')o no, economic growth is not "dependant on further demand and growth in supply of cheap, plentiful fossil fuels." There are many other examples of this in addition to Germany.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('s0ul5', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'S')o no, economic growth is not "dependant on further demand and growth in supply of cheap, plentiful fossil fuels." There are many other examples of this in addition to Germany.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')At some point in time, China's economy will become as dominated by services as is Germany's economy

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'I')EA production up or not, long term there isn't enough oil left for China to go through the complete industrialization transition. That train is coming off its tracks sooner or later.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bkwillia', '
')The main reason Germany is so far ahead of the game it that it has very little fossile fuel resource and depends on Russia for imports.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Being dependent on Russia for your fossil fuel resources does not put Germany "ahead of the game." It just means Germany has little alternative but to kowtow when the Russians raise prices and make political demands.

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'I')t's all about the crude oil.
Watch crude. Crude is at 74. Same number as it was in 05.

When crude starts falling off, it's game over, regardless of the rest of the "liquid fuels" contingent.

[s0ul5]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'B')ut the question was whether or not an economy can grow without increasing consumption of fossil fuels. Does it matter whether that growth comes from growth in the service sector, or growth from the industrial sector?

[dorlomin]

The very fact Oil Finder2 chooses Germany from the 80s to now tells you he does not want to show you an honest assement.



He does like his little games...

Hmmm so any prizes for any political changes in that time in Germany that may have had an imact on industry? Anyone in the class... hint 1989.... Oh ok Ill give it away. Germany reunified and a marxist economy was combined with a most successful liberal market economy.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')ermany is the seventh largest coal producer in the world. In 2004, it produced 232.7 million short tons (Mmst), of which the large majority was lignite. The country operates ten mines, employing some 45,000 people. However, German coal production has declined rapidly since reunification in 1989-1990; in 1990, West and East Germany produced a combined 513.7 Mmst of coal. The closure of older, inefficient mines in the former East Germany has been the principle cause of this decline. Currently, over one-half of Germany’s lignite production occurs in the Rhineland region in the western part of the country.

[Chuckmak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'B')eing dependent on Russia for your fossil fuel resources does not put Germany "ahead of the game." It just means Germany has little alternative but to kowtow when the Russians raise prices and make political demands.

[r101958]

An interesting exchange indeed! We might want to point out that a good portion of any growth in Germany's economy is dependant on our excessive consumption here in America. One wonders how much growth they'll see this year.

[MD]

It's about freakin' time we got some production increase with all the capital that's been flowing into the energy sector over the last four years!

Yeesh!

[dorlomin]

. did not mean to do that: oops