$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')I'm afraid you aren't looking at the whole picture:

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ') [By denying that demand destruction exists (or that's its negligible) you're assuming there is no price wall. The only wall you acknowledge is a production wall.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')hat's a funny one!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'B')y denying that demand destruction exists (or that's its negligible) you're assuming there is no price wall. The only wall you acknowledge is a production wall.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'D')o you honestly believe that the Chinese will meekly revert to the days of Maoist agri-collectivism or even worse without a fight for preferential access to the remaining oil in a bid to neutralise the market?

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'E')mbracing the big picture has been one of my mantras for almost 4 years.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ') I disagree. Even if you were right about the lack of current alternatives to oil, there are still plenty of ways to use less oil -- yes, even the Chinese can do it if it gets too expensive. As long as we can use less oil if forced to do so by the high price, we can eventually use less-enough oil to cause the price to crash.

[SILENTTODD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', 'W')orld wide Demand Destruction will not occur until countries that subsidize the price (use) of gasoline (China, India, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, ect, ect) allow it to be priced to world levels. It will come back to bite them in the butt, but not before it has decimated the American and possibly the European economies.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', 'W')orld wide Demand Destruction will not occur until countries that subsidize the price (use) of gasoline (China, India, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, ect, ect) allow it to be priced to world levels. It will come back to bite them in the butt, but not before it has decimated the American and possibly the European economies.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'B')ut if you say you're a "big picture" person, I'd recommend you read the following book, since this is clearly a hole in your "big picture":

[americandream]

Not to worry Hogan. Oil prices will rise, the Dubaians will shut down their high rise technological wonders and go about their demand destroyed lifestyles like the rational god worshipping economic humans they (and the rest of us) are.

[TheDude]

You underestimate the tenacity of the typical motorist in the developing world, OF2. These are people who will spend a sizable fraction of their yearly income on the license plate - and up to $7k on a vanity plate, if well-heeled. These have "lucky numbers."

“Lucky” License Plates sell for $72000 | Weird Asia News

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')uperstitious Chinese drivers bid a total of 559,000 yuan (US$72,036) for six “lucky” vehicle registration plate numbers in northeastern China’s Jilin Province on Sunday.

[Ayame]

Lolz @ the chinese.

It seems you could go faster on a bicycle than sitting in that traffic jam of cars.

Anyway, as I see it, everyone around the world will feel the pressure of rising oil prices. Africans will be the worst hit as they are the poorest and will fall off the olduvai cliff first and nobody will really care apart from Bono. In the first world we will pish posh about alternatives as the middle class gets ever more impoverished and discontented with the increasing costs of food and fuel. Countries around the world that subsidise oil are already reducing their subsidies as their finances can't bare the strain anymore but whether this will reduce consumption is yet to be seen, in China the reduction in subsidies is actually expected to increase consumption as the oil companies supply more as they will be making less of a loss. The rising incomes of the chinese will probably be able to aborb increasing oil prices for the near future. China of course is ramping up coal as a cheaper alternative to oil but it's also being very strategic and with all the dollars it has accumulated it is investing in middle eastern countries and in return they are pledging to increase (in the case of Saudi Arabia double) oil supplies to China. The US it seems has gone for the conquering option instead. Our (UK) government otherwise know as 'Brown' went to the Jeddah meeting to ask the oil producing nations to invest in our nuclear power development in return for all the money the west was spending on oil. He was no doubt laughed out the room.

So the game is a foot. Countries will play strategically until someone gets really desperate (threat of total societal collapse) and then channel the people's frustration into a war probably.

[hironegro]

Does the report take into account the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil's off-shore field and Kazakhstan all opening up circa 2013?

[Smudger]

I think the report, as ever, does a on the one hand but on the other hand type review of the oil market. However I think the key thing is that it has directly flagged the lower production levels expected.

My sense is this is the next step in confirming we are peaking/peaked with the final step in November.

[idiom]

Maybe the the IEA should tell the States to add taxes. Yeah. that is just as likely.