Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Stimulus Package Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: What exactly is a "Stimulus Package"?

Postby Starvid » Sun 20 Jan 2008, 13:57:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'S')tarvid wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow to sove this issue? Tax cuts for those with the lowest incomes, because they are sure to spend all the money they get. Finance it by repealing the Bush tax cuts for the super rich.

A state backed infrastructure program should also be considered.


Wrong! The lowest brackets of income do not pay any tax already! And no matter how you stack the deck against them, the rich are simply smarter and will always come out of top anyway! There are no simple solutions! Get used to it!! You cannnot tax your way to prosperity. Solutions have to by necessity focus on the middle classes. They are the ones that will end up paying the most taxes overall (due to their numbers & immobility), and the ones that will benefit the most from either a stimulus package or tax reform.

Yeah, yeah, I know that you are pessimistic on state intervention in the economy. But if you don't redistribute income you'll end up in a feudal society, the way the US has become/is becoming. Just think Paris Hilton.

I mean, the 10(!) richest Americans are worth something like $250 billion. That's enough to bring high speed rail to all relevant places in America.

And your argument that the rich will always be smart enough to screw everyone over is not right either. Reasonable equality existed in the US and the UK in the 30 postwar years, then came the energy crisis, Thatcher and Reagan and screwed everything up (and granted, did some good things too).

But in Europe and Japan, economies kept growing while equality stayed (I'll dig up some graphs). There is this view in the US of Europe as poor, backward, stagnant and unemployed. Eurosclerosis. It's just not true when you check the facts. Read some of Paul Krugman's stuff.

PS. Sure, the middle class is the most important. When I said those with the lowest incomes, I meant the 80 % of the US population that has been screwed by the richest 20 % in general, the richest 1 % in particular and especially the richest 0,01 %. That's right, the richest 1/ 10 000.
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
User avatar
Starvid
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3021
Joined: Sun 20 Feb 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Uppsala, Sweden

Re: What exactly is a "Stimulus Package"?

Postby mattduke » Sun 20 Jan 2008, 17:09:33

Inflation is by far the largest source of wealth inequality. Inflation redistributes wealth from the poor to the rich. The gold standard is the monetary system consistent with democratic principles. With sound money, the producers are rewarded (with carpenters that can buy a house and send their children to college), not the paper shufflers.
User avatar
mattduke
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3591
Joined: Fri 28 Oct 2005, 03:00:00

Re: What exactly is a "Stimulus Package"?

Postby Starvid » Sun 20 Jan 2008, 18:30:40

Well, I agree. I'm an inflation hawk. We have a 2 % annual inflation target, and the central bank rather throws the country into recession than lose control of inflation.
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
User avatar
Starvid
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3021
Joined: Sun 20 Feb 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Uppsala, Sweden

Re: What exactly is a "Stimulus Package"?

Postby cube » Sun 20 Jan 2008, 19:57:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'B')ut if you don't redistribute income you'll end up in a feudal society, the way the US has become/is becoming. Just think Paris Hilton.
A feudal society is where people are born into a "class level" and stay there. For example if you were born poor you stay poor for life. If you were born rich you stay rich for life. Using that definition, America is NOT a feudal society. On the contrary we have quite possibly THE most financially dynamic society on this planet. There is no shortage of examples of poor becoming rich and rich becoming poor in the USA. On the other hand if you mean feudal as in 2% of the rich owning 98% of the wealth then yes, that pretty much describes the USA.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'I') mean, the 10(!) richest Americans are worth something like $250 billion. That's enough to bring high speed rail to all relevant places in America.
This is where American culture is different from socialistic western Europe. We do not believe the rich deserve to have their wealth taken from them simply because they are successful. In America we teach little children to play this board game where the objective is to bankrupt and seize the assets of the other players. It is a family friendly game and it's called Monopoly.
The most important rule of the game is if you lose --> you don't cry.

That's the way it works in America IRL. If you don't make it in life you're NOT suppose to be a sore loser. :-D
cube
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3909
Joined: Sat 12 Mar 2005, 04:00:00

Re: What exactly is a "Stimulus Package"?

Postby LoneSnark » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 02:54:21

Starvid, you are watering down the term. A feudal society is one in which a large percentage of the society is born into slavery. Feudal lords did not just rule over their serfs, they owned them.

So, to suggest our society in which everyone is free to be lazy and not work without fear of execution compares in any way to a feudal society is rediculous.

Raw wealth inequality means nothing. Compared to 1776 America where whole families took turns working themselves to death and still managed to go hungry every winter, America today is a bastion of equality of outcomes.

And don't buy into the myth of 30 years of post-war equality. Lyndon Johnson dreamed of a great society in 1965 because he knew the one he had was abysmally ungreat. I have seen the pictures of poor rural whites (my family among them) and even poorer rural blacks during the 50s and 60s. Today many Americans have trouble paying for health insurance; back then many Americans had trouble paying for clean drinking water (my family included) and any form of healthcare was an unheard of luxury. If that was reasonable equality then praise God for releaving us of it.
User avatar
LoneSnark
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 514
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 04:00:00

Re: What exactly is a "Stimulus Package"?

Postby dorlomin » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 07:59:01

State intervention into the economy is not good or bad, but either well or badly done. The post war West German and Japanese economies had huge amounts of state intervention into them. It would take a brave person to say that 1950-1990 they were good examples of poorly performing economies.

Nor is the US a paragon of non state interference. Comercial jet manufacture and computing are two massive industries that the US government injected large amounts of money into to give birth and grow them by R&D and millitary contracts.

When state intervention is done well it can work very well. When it is done badly you get 1970s Britain.
User avatar
dorlomin
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5193
Joined: Sun 05 Aug 2007, 03:00:00

Re: What exactly is a "Stimulus Package"?

Postby MrBill » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 10:19:15

I would agree, dorlomin. State sponsored capitalism has worked fine for the Asian Tigers. However, the government should have some sort of long-term plan, and then allow private business to get on with it.

Although a lack of pluralism can lead to crony capitalism and the backing national champions that can lead to inefficiencies being entrenched. Or poor services due to a lack of competition. None of which is in the public's interest. And then when a company is losing money and market share there has to be a review process that cuts the taxpayers' losses. Unfortunately, the longer such soft-support for corporations exists the more likely such decisions would be avoided and problems papered over.

In short I would suggest that such public policies work for a while, especially when there is an urgent need, but then eventually fall victim to government bureaucracy and entrenched business interests. If you can only stay export competitive through currency manipulation is that one public policy mistake too far?
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia

Re: What exactly is a "Stimulus Package"?

Postby Starvid » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 13:25:50

Feudalism is not everyone being born into serfdom, at least we didn't have that kind of feudalism in Sweden. Here the meaning of feudalism is a form of government where power is not held by the state, but by feudal lords who swear oaths of fealty to the king, who isn't really anything more than the biggest and baddest lord. Thankfully, we got rid of that in 1648. It also means you stay in the class you were born into (peasant, craftsman, priest, nobility).

So of course, feudalism is hyperbole. But that doesn't change the fact that immense wealth is being accumulated by an extremely small number of Americans, something which has and will result in what is in effect nobility. This will result in all the problems of nobility and monarchy us Europeans are so used too, and which is what the American founding fathers tried to get the Hell away from.

It doesn't change the fact that social mobility (be born poor, work hard, get rich) is far lower today in the US compared to 30 years ago, or the (for Americans at least) rather startling fact that social mobility is higher in the EU than in the US.

If you are born poor in the EU you have a greater chance of getting rich through hard work than you have in the US, and if you fail and stay poor you will still live in far less sqaulor than a poor American.
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
User avatar
Starvid
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3021
Joined: Sun 20 Feb 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Uppsala, Sweden

Re: What exactly is a "Stimulus Package"?

Postby frankthetank » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 14:31:21

I'll just add that people love to complain, even when they have it really good...my wife included. I tell her often that i'll get her a plane ticket and she can go live in Bangladesh for a few months. I think a lot of us are scared because we really don't want the current setup to change!
lawns should be outlawed.
User avatar
frankthetank
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6202
Joined: Thu 16 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Southwest WI

Re: What exactly is a "Stimulus Package"?

Postby Tyler_JC » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 14:45:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '
')
It doesn't change the fact that social mobility (be born poor, work hard, get rich) is far lower today in the US compared to 30 years ago, or the (for Americans at least) rather startling fact that social mobility is higher in the EU than in the US.

If you are born poor in the EU you have a greater chance of getting rich through hard work than you have in the US, and if you fail and stay poor you will still live in far less squalor than a poor American.


I would have to take issue with that one.

Only 20% of millionaires in this country were born into their wealth.

Class Matters

I dare you to play around with that social mobility scale and tell me America isn't the land of opportunity.
"www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Tyler_JC
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5438
Joined: Sat 25 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Boston, MA
Top

Re: What exactly is a "Stimulus Package"?

Postby venky » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 15:36:15

I suspect that your chances of making it really rich; like becoming a millionaire are better in America than in Europe. This usually comes through success in a business or previously in real estate.

But going from poor to middle class; the relatively easy way for a lot of people of getting a college degree and a good job are probably better in the EU. IMO that is more important since the odds of the average person making it to millionaire are pretty slim; so social mobility for the general population is better achieved by access to education.

But this is just a hunch. I will be interested in either Starvid or Tyler providing figures or studies to back their claim up.
I play the cards I'm dealt, though I sometimes bluff.

Only Man is vile.
venky
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 819
Joined: Sun 13 Mar 2005, 04:00:00

Re: What exactly is a "Stimulus Package"?

Postby yesplease » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 17:23:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '[')url=http://www.nytimes.com/pages/national/class/index.html]Class Matters[/url]

I dare you to play around with that social mobility scale and tell me America isn't the land of opportunity.
According to your link (click on 'Next'), income mobility is slowing down. If you go to the 'country by country' portion, you may notice that the difference from the 2nd to 3rd generation in France is quite large, which seems to correspond with a drop in France's Gini coefficient and the the countries with the lower coefficients tend to have people move towards the average faster than their counterparts that have a larger difference in the distribution of wealth.

That being said, America may well be the land of opportunity, but it's likely at the expense of your peers to some extent.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
User avatar
yesplease
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3765
Joined: Tue 03 Oct 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: What exactly is a "Stimulus Package"?

Postby efarmer » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 19:08:33

Q. What exactly is a "Stimulus Package"?

A. A stimulus package is what Mr. Bush unveiled Friday and
Asia and Europe responded to today. So far as the stimulus
part of it goes, it sure was a dandy, we haven't spent the
$145 Billion yet and the markets are responding with over
5% changes just today. Tomorrow the US market gets to
show that it can be stimulated just as good as any other
market if not better. Now that we have the stimulus part
working so well, I think we should start to work on making
this stimulus trick work in a chosen direction as an encore.

When we get big stimulus and desired direction going at
the same time, all will be right again and we will stop being
so stimulated. Not being stimulated might sound bad, but
in this case it would feel very good and we would like it.
User avatar
efarmer
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2003
Joined: Fri 17 Mar 2006, 04:00:00

Re: What exactly is a "Stimulus Package"?

Postby MrBill » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 05:35:27

It must feel pretty good to an old whore to get off her back after a long night and stop being stimulated?
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia

Re: What exactly is a "Stimulus Package"?

Postby efarmer » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 22:29:21

"You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out."

Warren Buffet

Mr. Bill -

The thieves of U.S. finance have just grifted many banks and
institutions globally. The whole gang of banksters, hedge hogs,
ratings and insurance firms all played their part. They put the
American Brand on huge bundles of horse sh!t wrapped with gold
foil and festooned with red, white, and blue ribbons.

I know it is quite a list, but would you comment on the following
since I greatly enjoy your opinions.

1. Will New York as a market center pay a price for this deceit?

2. Do you see international pressure sufficient to have the UK
open up it's Cayman and BVI systems to expose specific criminals
in this mess, similar to what was done for drug money?

3. Do you see regional markets around the US emerge to take
away power from the now tinged market based in New York?

4. Do you see the FTC continue to allow hedge funds or private
investment banks to lease stock and vote in US regulated venues?

5. Do you think that central bank and federal bailouts were taken
as a given by the participants in the process and actually made the
scheme larger and more damaging by those involved?
User avatar
efarmer
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2003
Joined: Fri 17 Mar 2006, 04:00:00

Re: What exactly is a "Stimulus Package"?

Postby gg3 » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 22:57:12

.
Stimulus package: a box full of free samples of Viagra to hand out to voters at a campaign rally.

--

Feudalism.

It's a mistake to use "poor person works hard and becomes rich" as the quantifier for economic opportunity. This is a measure of movement from one tail of a normal curve (the bottom) to the other tail (the top), and will always produce an exaggerated impression, not the least because it tends to generate "human interest stories" aka tear-jerkers that stick in peoples' minds regardless of overall conditions.

This is also an example of how the human brain is poorly wired for statistics, and the proof of that point is the number of people who regularly play lotteries. (A close friend of mine calls lotteries "the math tax," as in, "tax on people who can't do the math.")

A more useful measure is movement into and out of the zone defined as economicallly secure for that culture, in terms of food, shelter, etc.

For example a useful definition of "poor" is "at risk of losing a basic element of subsistence e.g. food or shelter." Then we can make the distinction between "poorness" as defined, and "sufficiency" which is defined as "not being at risk of losing a basic element of subsistence e.g. food or shelter." In this case "sufficiency" includes everything from the economically-secure working class to the ultra-wealthy, and is consistent with the ideological premise that wealth is not a problem but poverty is.

So then what we want to look at, as a measure of a society that is free and fair and just, is the degree to which people cross the line between "poor" as defined, and "sufficient" as defined. To the extent that people are born into poor families and do not cross into sufficiency, we can say that there is a hereditary class system or caste system, which is one of the roots of feudalism.

---

Note that in the classic definition of feudalism, an individual is a serf, and the serfs are attached to the land much as fixtures, whereas a slave in chattel slavery is movable property attached to the master.

So, you have a feudal estate, with serfs and slaves. You sell the estate. The serfs stay with the estate, the slaves go with you to your next estate, where there are also existing serfs. The person who bought your estate brings in their own slaves and keeps the serfs that went with your estate. (Imagine this in a real estate listing!:-)

The modern forms of involuntary servitude differ from the classic forms in that the modern culture has broken the relationship between people and land. Just as families are no longer settled in one place, neither are serfs attached to land. Instead, serfs in the from of illegal immigrants are migrants who follow the crop planting and harvest cycles; and slaves in the form of wage-slaves follow the business cycles. This removes the overhead cost of maintaining these individuals at times when they are of no utility to their masters. Yes, a more efficient form of man's inhumanity to man.

So when we speak of neo-feudalism, we have to consider that we are talking about a more complex society, and thus more complex forms of involuntary servitude.

The use of the dividing line between "poor" and "sufficient" is a starting point, the rest of the framework remains to be filled in.
User avatar
gg3
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 3271
Joined: Mon 24 May 2004, 03:00:00
Location: California, USA

Re: What exactly is a "Stimulus Package"?

Postby LoneSnark » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 00:18:06

A slave cannot quit and subsist on savings. A wage-slave can pinch their pennies and retire early. That being the case, it is not any form of slavery.

Similarly, the tax code is not a form of enslavement, as you are again free to quit at any time of your choosing, no matter how inconvenient it may be for your government.

So, to sum up, there is no form of slavery here, no serfdom, no feudalism, nothing but self determined free agents.

Now, there are obviously racists which make our society less than ideal, but to suggest any of us are engaged in involuntary servitude is rediculous. Other than the slaves being impressed by the mafia or other street gangs, the rest of us are free to quit and return to nature for all anyone of authority will care.
User avatar
LoneSnark
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 514
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 04:00:00

Re: What exactly is a "Stimulus Package"?

Postby MrBill » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 05:56:55

I agree. Everyone is born equal. No one is a slave. For the most part we offer a free education to anyone interested. Therefore, anyone is free to quit one low dead-end job to get another dead-end job or to accept a better paying job.

I cleaned toilets, worked as a waiter, and salvaged used bricks & lumber when I was young, so I would never have to do those jobs again. That is the difference in a free-society. Anyone that suggests anything was handed to me due to my birthright is simply ignorant!

We literally live in a meritocracy where even the blessed children of the rich end up poor through bad choices of their own while others go on to bigger and better things.

We owe nothing to illegal immigrants that choose to cross our borders and take up jobs that pay marginally better than what they could earn in their own FCK'd up country. That we choose to give them any form of legal protection and/or social safety net in the form of free medical care or other welfare is simply as sign of our compassion as a society.

The traditonal definition of poverty is simply an extension of our own sense of self-entitlement. If I earn a million+ and you only earn $500K then I guess we can declare you poor. Nevermind that we both have everything we need and no one goes hungry!

To suggest that we live in a feudal society because some have more and some made poor decisions is the height of relativism. It reminds me of an old Russian fairy tale.

Once there was a farmer who had one cow. And his neighbor had two cows. One day while digging in his field he came across a fairy. The fairy agreed to grant him one wish. The farmer thought about it for a while, and then he said, "I wish my neighbor's second cow would die." There happy? Everybody equal? ; - )
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia

Re: What exactly is a "Stimulus Package"?

Postby Bas » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 06:21:30

Image

"Here, now go get yourself some candy"
Bas
 

Re: What exactly is a "Stimulus Package"?

Postby MrBill » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 06:24:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '"')You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out."

Warren Buffet

Mr. Bill -

The thieves of U.S. finance have just grifted many banks and
institutions globally. The whole gang of banksters, hedge hogs,
ratings and insurance firms all played their part. They put the
American Brand on huge bundles of horse sh!t wrapped with gold
foil and festooned with red, white, and blue ribbons.

I know it is quite a list, but would you comment on the following
since I greatly enjoy your opinions.

1. Will New York as a market center pay a price for this deceit?

2. Do you see international pressure sufficient to have the UK
open up it's Cayman and BVI systems to expose specific criminals
in this mess, similar to what was done for drug money?

3. Do you see regional markets around the US emerge to take
away power from the now tinged market based in New York?

4. Do you see the FTC continue to allow hedge funds or private
investment banks to lease stock and vote in US regulated venues?

5. Do you think that central bank and federal bailouts were taken
as a given by the participants in the process and actually made the
scheme larger and more damaging by those involved?


As a banker you could say I am quite biased! ; - )

NYC has been losing market share and prestige for years. There is not one major Wall Street investment bank that does not have at least an equal presence in London or that is not expanding aggressively in Moscow, Dubai, Shanghai and elsewhere.

Bankers are like ants to honey when it comes to money. It has always been thus. Therefore, the wealth transfer to OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers as well as Asian manufacturers and the producers of commodities from consuming nations is naturally shifting power and prestige to these exporters who have the new wealth.

Of course, many of America's problems are wholly self-inflicted, and that does not help matters. The Patriot Act and America's anti-money laundering and know your customer procedures as well as the Sarbanes-Oxley act drive investors away in droves. Not because they are laundering money, but because the costs of disclosure are too expensive and too onerous.

As an investment banker I cannot even open up a personal account for trading FX at a discount broker without my own firm's Compliance Officer writing an official note disclosing my conflict of interest. Feel any safer? I just find it annoying. Who wants their employer knowing what they trade for their own account?

I have a great deal of empathy for investors that seek sanctuary in unregulated offshore markets.

There is an old saying, "If you don't like America, then leave!" Well, that is exactly what many are doing. And they are taking their money with them. So be careful what you wish for!

Regulation is a little bit like squeezing mud. The harder you squeeze the more that slips out between your fingers. The SEC and state attornies' heavy handed approach - much less spurious lawsuits - just makes America that much less attractive a place to do business.

One private bank sent me some account opening forms that were 50-pages in length to be filled out in duplicate. At the end of the day I could summarize it as 'they get fees for nothing, and I take all the legal and market risk.' Screw that!

The Federal bail-outs are for the benefit of politicians who hope to get elected or re-elected, and therefore are aimed at voters, not bankers. Get used to it! That it saves some bankers' hides is a secondary issue. Does it create a moral hazard? You bet!

Your government habitually punishes savers and bond holders for the benefit of risk takers and speculators. The risks are asymmetrical! As an investor you have to take into account public policy. Well, the offical policy is spend and speculate and if you get into trouble we'll tax workers as well as increase inflation - which is a tax on saving - to help bail you out!

Hillary wants to freeze interest rates for 5-years! And expropriate oil companies profits! What's next? Where does this lunacy end?

The left pretends that economics does not matter. The right selectively uses pseudo-economic arguments to justify its political expediancy. The voter just wants something for nothing. And you blame bankers for arbitraging between economic reality and political fantasy? It is like shooting fish in a barrel! ; - )
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia
Top

PreviousNext

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 38 guests

cron