[TonyPrep]

Perhaps you mis-read the post, Freddy. North slope production is declining. Why do you think the R/P ratio remains unchanged, in that scenario? It might remain at 40 forever, but that won't stop production going down. 40 years doesn't mean 40 years of increasing production or even of flat production. R/P is rather meaningless once production starts to decline.

As for oil companies living off increased reserves, can you give any figures for that (taking into account mergers and take-overs)? As I understand it, all major oil companies are in declining production and have not been able to replace production for at least a couple of years.

[LastViking]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'P')erhaps you mis-read the post, Freddy.

As for oil companies living off increased reserves, can you give any figures for that (taking into account mergers and take-overs)? As I understand it, all major oil companies are in declining production and have not been able to replace production for at least a couple of years.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LastViking', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'P')erhaps you mis-read the post, Freddy.

As for oil companies living off increased reserves, can you give any figures for that (taking into account mergers and take-overs)? As I understand it, all major oil companies are in declining production and have not been able to replace production for at least a couple of years.

[LastViking]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LastViking', ' ')As far as IOC's waning reserves & production, your unsubstaniated statement above requires references. I read a lot of big5 Annual Reports and never see the dire results that you claim for "all major oil companies". Your wild exaggerations only serve to discredit your position ... a common trait in these circles.

[TonyPrep]

Well done! So Exxon managed to raise production in 2006, after a dip in 2005. I looked at the summary annual report but couldn't find a breakdown of those reserve additions. However, I guess you are saying that any report (e.g. the one I linked to) that doesn't concur with your view must be by a "vague pundit from a fringe firm".

That's you're opinion, of course.

I see the Exxon graph on world supplies, in the summary report, showed no difference from 2000, except for what it labels "frontier resources". As it talks about oil shale, it is reasonable to assume that their optimistic forecast of increasing world supply to 2030 are rather unrealistic. However, that is my opinion, of course.

[FreddyH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') see the Exxon graph on world supplies, in the summary report, showed no difference from 2000, except for what it labels "frontier resources". As it talks about oil shale, it is reasonable to assume that their optimistic forecast of increasing world supply to 2030 are rather unrealistic. However, that is my opinion, of course.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') see the Exxon graph on world supplies, in the summary report, showed no difference from 2000, except for what it labels "frontier resources". As it talks about oil shale, it is reasonable to assume that their optimistic forecast of increasing world supply to 2030 are rather unrealistic. However, that is my opinion, of course.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'F')inally, there's pstarr's signature. Who knows how much fossil-fuel use is "hidden" in the production and maintenance of "renewable" infrastructure?

[FreddyH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') see the Exxon graph on world supplies, in the summary report, showed no difference from 2000, except for what it labels "frontier resources". As it talks about oil shale, it is reasonable to assume that their optimistic forecast of increasing world supply to 2030 are rather unrealistic. However, that is my opinion, of course.

[TonyPrep]

Ah! You mean BP's estimates of world resources, not estimates of their own resources.

Of course, there is one thing we can say with certainty, about estimates. They are bound to be wrong, whatever the source.

[KillTheHumans]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', '
')
Reserves have two components: Discoveries & Reserve Growth. The pre-occupation with Discoveries is absurd in light of the awesome Reserve Growth. Why would any sane company knock themselves out with expensive explorations costs just to build up that R/P ratio? Do u feel 40 yrs is not enuf? Do u think it should be 50yrs? 60yrs?

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', 'Y')ou should be warned that speaking truth to the collective silliness around here is not considered acceptable behavior. Nod...make up a silly scenario which somehow links peak oil to the end of the world.....if possible make the case for it happening TOMORROW, and then sit back and bask in the glow of enthusiastic backslapping for your creativity, which should be as devoid of thoughtful consideration as possible.

When the world doesn't end tomorrow, you simply blame cornocopians, the stock market, not carrying the correct number of significant digits in your model, and make up something more outlandish. I promise, no one will notice until you've been doing this for at LEAST a year or so...and then those who doubt your credibility will be roundly lambasted by the true believers, who are certain to rush to your defense.

[FreddyH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', '
')
Reserves have two components: Discoveries & Reserve Growth. The pre-occupation with Discoveries is absurd in light of the awesome Reserve Growth. Why would any sane company knock themselves out with expensive explorations costs just to build up that R/P ratio? Do u feel 40 yrs is not enuf? Do u think it should be 50yrs? 60yrs?

[FreddyH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'V')ery few posters here display the opinion that the world is going to end tomorrow.

[KillTheHumans]

It would be nice to see Campbells 1990 peak estimate and following production schedule matched up against reality since then, similar to how you listed Hubberts global oil production estimate.



Thats it. Although the last time I checked his 1989 work, I could have sworn his 2007 production rate was even lower than what shows on your graph.

Again, excellent information at your site.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I')t's amazing how those who are desperate to believe in an infinite earth warp and distort the general views around here so that they can ridicule them.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'T')herefore the late-peakists, like myself, are the ones who are being proved right.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I')t's amazing how those who are desperate to believe in an infinite earth warp and distort the general views around here so that they can ridicule them.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'M')y apologies to killthehumans, if he doesn't believe in an infinite earth.