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Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby DavidFolks » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 01:17:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'W')hat methods and pathways to education do you plan to implement to further these proposals? How do you see us "educating people" or how are you yourself educating people?


I'm trying to get this as specific and as less-vague as possible.


Thanks.


Are you sitting comfortably?

Okay, here is an example of a real life current project that I'm working on now.

I am developing a prototype electric assisted human powered vehicle. It will be totally enclosed, and will move a single human and six bags of groceries. It will be operable in most weather conditions. It is designed to be recharged from a renewable platform, and will travel 30km at 50km/hr on a charge. Range can be infinite through muscle power alone.

The reason I took on this project, is because it is a useful first step.

Until October 13, 2009, this will be classed as an electrically assisted bicycle in my neck of the woods. This means no insurance, or license to operate. To stay within the legal definition for this trial period, the vehicle can have no more than 3 wheels in contact with the ground while operating, and have no more than 500 watts of power delivered from the motor.

So part of step one is to produce the things, develop a market, and show people that they can comfortably transition to less resource intensive modes of transport.

With enough grass roots support, perhaps the trial period will be extended indefinately, and we can move to step two.

Step two is to lobby for an ammendment that would allow for 4 wheels to be in contact with the ground. This would allow for a side by side tandem, with greater carrying capacity.

If that goes through, and enough people start to use this sort of vehicle, perhaps motorists will become more accomodating. Infrastructure could be devoted to this type of transport, and people would get used to seeing smaller, lighter, less resource intensive vehicles on the road. As they become more accepted, we move to step three.

Step three is to develop and produce purpose built electric vehicles, that use fewer resources, and are more efficient through lighter construction, instead of trying to convert Hummers.

Note that I am working within our current economic system, and that I have to make money to control the resources I need for other steps.

Part of where the money goes is directly to education. This is the hardest one of the goals I am pursuing, because the educational system is terribly conservative and resistant to change.

I am currently developing a relationship with an NGO that has a toe inside the education system. I hope to work with them to develop curriculem that includes both their staunch promotion of community and inclusion, with studies into ecology, and demonstrating how all systems on the planet are interconnected.

We're on the very thinnest edge of the wedge with this now, but if we can start promoting an ecological/community based paradigm at an early age, the next couple of generations could grow up with a different set of values instilled in them, and hopefully steer a course away from the rocky shoals on our horizon.

Both of these activities are educational in their own way, and I believe both will move us toward a sounder paradigm.

For MonteQuest, I realize that you think that these changes may be too gradual, and that we're in for a "sharp correction".

I can only say that I hope you're wrong, and that these are a couple of steps that I can take now under current conditions with current resources to try to make a change.

This is about as specific and less-vague as I am willing to be at the moment.:wink:
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby LoneSnark » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 02:32:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') have a single change that would change the entire world paradigm of consumption.

All it would require is that every nation on earth adopt a single currency, the watt.

Everything would be priced by the total embodied energy to produce it. People would be paid by the total energy they expend, or save.

This single change would affect everything, and shift us to an energy sustainable paradigm.

Ok, I recognize this might sound like a good idea. But whatever the currency is you cannot fix prices for goods and services at anything other than what people are willing to pay or accept as payment.

Sure, adopt a single international currency, call it the watt. But "energy" is not the only scarce resource on this planet. If we presume a car wash consumes about the same amount of energy as a medical checkup, does that mean they will cost the same? What is to stop doctors from washing cars instead, since they will get paid the same regardless?

I am sorry, 'money' must be an arbitrary unit, otherwise it is worthless as a means of resource allocation. 'Price' must reflect the usage of all scarce resources including land, labor, capital, resources, and oportunity costs. You cannot fix it to any one unless the rest are inherently worthless (land is free and salaries are zero), which we know they are not.

Some items are expensive because they consumed a lot of energy in their production (a car). Other items are expensive because a lot of skill and effort were involved in their production (a cell-phone). And still others are expensive because they are rare (art work).

Any price system must reflect all aspects of reality, not just energy, otherwise the system will collapse into chaos.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 07:48:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')owerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

I had red carefully this thread.
Nice Utopia.
No folks, we are not going to implement anything alike voluntarily.
All what we will do is trying to maintain as high as possible living standards by efficiency gains etc.
We will simply increase resilience.
This will carry on for sometime measured in decades perhaps, may be even century or two.
Total destruction of natural habitat will result.
All wilderness will be gone in the process.
5% of existing species will survive if we are lucky enough.

So we may witness slow enforced by Nature powerdown, gradual population reduction due to basic impossibilities and pond of sand left on the end.

The end result will take a form of r u i n.
Ruin is a destination of our civilization, powerdown or not.
So many of you have difficulty with that, I wonder why?
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 08:42:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')owerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

I had red carefully this thread.
Nice Utopia.
No folks, we are not going to implement anything alike voluntarily.
All what we will do is trying to maintain as high as possible living standards by efficiency gains etc.
We will simply increase resilience.
This will carry on for sometime measured in decades perhaps, may be even century or two.
Total destruction of natural habitat will result.
All wilderness will be gone in the process.
5% of existing species will survive if we are lucky enough.

So we may witness slow enforced by Nature powerdown, gradual population reduction due to basic impossibilities and pond of sand left on the end.

The end result will take a form of r u i n.
Ruin is a destination of our civilization, powerdown or not.
So many of you have difficulty with that, I wonder why?


I have a response... I do not think it is the ejaculation of denial you seem to envision, but you can be the judge of that.

Simply, we do not have the intellectual, emotional or physical resources for resilience. We will not be able to carry on the current rate of destruction because that rate is dependent upon cheap energy. While our species is resilient, our social structure is not. it is created for efficiency and while these need not necessarily be in opposition to one another, in our case I think they are.

I would agree that many of the ideas are utopian. we will not adopt many or maybe even any of them, except as we are forced to. I see powerdown not as a voluntary but an involuntary experience. To the extent that we have some ideas of how we will adapt (thus deomonstrating resilience) we are better prepared for that eventuallity.

Part of that resilience, however, will come at the expense of letting a lot of people die.

We will carry on as long as we can (and on this I think we agree). I, however, fail to see how we can continue on for the time frame and level of destruction that you envision. Especially if the various powers of the world begin to fight for resources. Even if one nation "wins" say the Saudi fileds there is nothing to keep another nation from blowing up the oil terminals or turning the eastern provinve into a sheet of glass so that the winner cannot use that resouce to "win" some other territory.

We will be at effectively zero petrol a long time before the wells would run dry. Then we will die. Then our destructive impact upon the globe will return to a more sustainable level.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby DavidFolks » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 09:28:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', '
')Ok, I recognize this might sound like a good idea. But whatever the currency is you cannot fix prices for goods and services at anything other than what people are willing to pay or accept as payment.


Actually, for the most part, prices do reflect the monetary costs to produce the goods or services now. If they didn't, everyone would go bankrupt.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', '
')Sure, adopt a single international currency, call it the watt. But "energy" is not the only scarce resource on this planet. If we presume a car wash consumes about the same amount of energy as a medical checkup, does that mean they will cost the same? What is to stop doctors from washing cars instead, since they will get paid the same regardless?


That's kind of a stretch, but I'll play along. The doctor will continue to see patients because he has had a calling, and the training and inclination to be a doctor. If anything, this levels the field so that people aren't choosing careers solely on the basis of financial gain, but by what they are actually suited to doing. As a benefit, think of how many lawyers there would be!:lol:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'I') am sorry, 'money' must be an arbitrary unit, otherwise it is worthless as a means of resource allocation. 'Price' must reflect the usage of all scarce resources including land, labor, capital, resources, and oportunity costs. You cannot fix it to any one unless the rest are inherently worthless (land is free and salaries are zero), which we know they are not.


Money has never been, nor is it now, an arbitrary unit for resource allocation. Unfortunately, instead of remaining a marker for a specific portion of a commodity, it has become a commodity itself, which throws everything out of whack. To my mind, it all comes down to energy costs. Adopting the watt would ensure that none of the costs were externalized. Think of the costs if you had to account for cleaning up and making every bit of your waste hazard neutral, instead of the current paradigm of externalizing the cost by dumping it into the biosphere. All the costs you mention can be adressed by assessing the energy costs associated with exploiting them, except perhaps land ownership.

I think we should change to stewardship instead of ownership, but that's a topic for another thread.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'S')ome items are expensive because they consumed a lot of energy in their production (a car). Other items are expensive because a lot of skill and effort were involved in their production (a cell-phone). And still others are expensive because they are rare (art work).


I never suggested that we ignore variations in price. Quality, rarity, and artistic merit should be well compensated, and I never said that people shouldn't charge what they felt the work was worth. All I suggest is that we all operate under the same rules, and that the total embodied energy is the absolute base price.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', '
')Any price system must reflect all aspects of reality, not just energy, otherwise the system will collapse into chaos.
The system is in chaos now,{edit} because the values for different currencies are {edit} arbitrary, and costs are externalized.

Take cereal for example.

In any sane system, you would calculate the resources required to grow the grain, process it, package it, transport it, warehouse it.... ad infinitum.

If you calculated these costs by the embodied energy as a base, it would cost the same to produce cereal anywhere in the world in real terms.

What we do now is exploit asian land, cheap labor, and destructive agricultural practices, ship it half way around the world using expensive bunker fuel, in huge, expensive ships, and package it in north america.

Because of the absurdity of our packaging laws, if the value of the packaging is greater than that of the contents, we can label it as "Made in North America".

In real terms, it costs more to make cereal in China and ship it here than it would to make the cereal here in the first place.

In monetary terms it does not.

I just think it would be nice if pricing were a little more rational, and money had an actual value that was transportable equally around the world.:wink:
If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn't be called research. ~A. Einstein

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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby LoneSnark » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 11:17:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')dopting the watt would ensure that none of the costs were externalized. Think of the costs if you had to account for cleaning up and making every bit of your waste hazard neutral, instead of the current paradigm of externalizing the cost by dumping it into the biosphere.

But it will not be. The rule I read said that the price in watts would be the energy consumed in its production, which in no way accounts for pollution generated. I can power my factory anyway I want, I can burn natural gas which is clean or I can burn unfiltered coal, just dumping the product into the atmosphere. Assuming it takes the same energy either way, then I get to charge the same either way.

And I don't know about you, but not all jobs have a calling. Who gew up wanting to be a garbage man? And who is going to attend 10 years of medical school to get paid the same?

But this is all moot: pricing objects exclusively by the energy contained there-in does not leave any room for wages at all, presuming the energy itself was priced accurately. So, to avoid bankruptcy all wages must be zero. Not to mention, the only businesses that would voluntarily operate are energy producers since only they sell more energy than they buy, earning a profit.

I suspect your response is going to be that the price should also reflect externalities, thus making them no longer externalities. And that this complex equation everyone must solve to determine what they are allowed to charge will be enforced by some government commission somewhere, just like the politburo in Soviet Russia.

But this is unnecessary if your only wish is to have prices reflect externalities: just slap a tax on externalities. If you want people to pay more for energy than is justified by fundamentals, then slap on a carbon tax. This is not hard, you can tax whatever you want. But having the government try to fix prices has failed where-ever it was tried: prices need to change constrantly to reflect relative scarcity of everything, not just energy, just to avoid shortages. Prices also need to be able to drop below the costs of production to end wasteful behavior.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 11:19:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '
')We will carry on as long as we can (and on this I think we agree). I, however, fail to see how we can continue on for the time frame and level of destruction that you envision. Especially if the various powers of the world begin to fight for resources. Even if one nation "wins" say the Saudi fileds there is nothing to keep another nation from blowing up the oil terminals or turning the eastern provinve into a sheet of glass so that the winner cannot use that resouce to "win" some other territory.

I think we may be underestimating what in fact can be done to extend status quo once approach ends are justifying means is taken.
Some heroic attempts to switch to electricity and keeping as much from current comfort as possible for as long as possible are likely to be undertaken.
So new generations of nuke plants including those working with thorium cycle (so fuel will last for ever) are likely to be built.
Only depletion of other more abundant resources may stop further construction of such plants so they may be around for centuries perhaps.
Meantime tropical forests will be destroyed to make space for palm tree and sugar cane plantations and slash and burn policies will be applied.
It does not matter that within 20-30 years such plantations will destroy topsoil and collapse into desert - we will simply not care about it.
After all before they do we will have 30 years of fuel supply.
No one will give a damn that it is unsustainable - all hopes will be directed towards technofixes of the future.
Genetics will be used to extend life of such agricultural policies for as long as we can until all GM trickery is exhausted in collapsing environment.

You are talking about resource wars.
The very existence of nukes may prevent larger resource wars.
Sheeple frightened with implications of nuke use may not have a guts to set any larger wars going.
Everything may get cooked in its own sauce slowly, but completely.

So even if within 20 years life standards of Americans may drop to current Mexican standards it may still take many decades more or few centuries perhaps for Nature to weed out modern man's hubris on the planet.

Only ruins will be left...
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Iaato » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 13:07:22

{Schoolmarm lecture coming} Reading the last page of this thread brings to mind crabs scrabbling in a pot, all clawing each other down. If this is the behavior we can expect from humanity, then indeed we are screwed and doomed to quick demise. Either dig your cellar and tuck in with your guns and MREs, or be the change you wish to see in the world. And Lone Snark, what are you so afraid of?

Kudos to Monte for starting this thread, which is a big start in getting some movement going on this website. And kudos to David for actually stepping up to the plate and starting with something. That electric vehicle sounds really cool. It sounds like you are worried about the regulations limiting you. I think that in the next few years, those regulations will simply disappear, as the population has to suddenly adapt to a lower energy lifestyle. I look at those cute little itty-bitty Smart Cars that have already presold 30,000 cars at $12K a pop in the US, that only get 40 MPG, and think, "What a joke." Hurry up with that vehicle, David. I'm waiting for it, and you can make a mint off of it.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 13:27:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') have no plans to try and implement any of this except through the public presentations I do.
.



Ok, thanks. That's a good, clear answer. :)
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Iaato » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 14:55:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'D')avid, that vehicle sounds great, and something I would love to own myself. How do you plan to get past the problem of aggressive drivers in large vehicles making it too unsafe to use them? I was unable to bike 1/2 mile to the grocery store in suburban Austin, which is supposed to be a progressive town, because of the danger (not to mention the noise and fumes). Now I'm in a small town, and while I can safely bike to many places the post office is completely inaccessible to anything but vehicles. If I were to attempt to drive to the post office in a vehicle like you described I'd probably be crushed. The one time I walked there I was so upset by the outcome that I wrote a letter to the paper about it, which they published. Motorcycles are one thing, because they go fast and there's a large group of enthusiasts here, but bicycles and little cars are quite another.


I hear you, Shanny. Anchorage is full of really aggressive drivers in big trucks and SUVs. This problem will solve itself shortly after the first gas lines form. I anticipate a very short transition to safer travel for the smaller vehicles and bikes. On major arteries with two lanes, one lane can easily be mandated for alternative, low-energy methods of travel. And I'm counting on the trucks and SUVs disappearing pretty fast, anyway. Finally, people will not be able to live/exist in communities that do not quickly become walkable.

The Oil Drum has had a number of articles dealing with the development of separate bike lanes and the issue of bimodal transportation, the most recent one yesterday.

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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby LoneSnark » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 15:38:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd Lone Snark, what are you so afraid of?

I am affraid that in a push to create the society you want to live in you will wreck society beyond repair for the rest of us.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Iaato » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 15:53:14

A classic response to fear is to attack; in this cae to attack the messenger. What do I have to do with the changes coming down the pike? Peak Oil is out of my control. You've just given me way too much power, Snark.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 20:20:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', '[')
I am affraid that in a push to create the society you want to live in you will wreck society beyond repair for the rest of us.



I think that's less likely if the changes are on the individual and local level. People from other locales are unlikely to come over and try to change your locale, or if they do try, it's unlikely they'll succeed. Many of us fear top-down change imposed on us, but, I think a good number of people here are not proposing top-down imposition of change, but individual and community change based on a shared set of values.

Of course I could be confused as usual! :)


Perhaps discussion of what those shared values are or could be, would be helpful.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 20:48:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') have no plans to try and implement any of this except through the public presentations I do.
.


Ok, thanks. That's a good, clear answer. :)


Ludi, I believe the first thing we need to do is get people thinking about these things.

There are so many things we do only because of cheap energy, it boggles the mind.

Why didn't we standardized all containers from the onset? Because we could afford to make whatever we wanted.

In the future, form must follow function.

I write two blogs besides post to PO.com. Stimulating the thoughts of others to pay attention and move towards that much needed ecological paradigm shift is high in my list of goals.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby LoneSnark » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 20:52:14

Ludi, you are not confused. Me and others in society have nothing to fear from you and others like you that are unwilling to impose your will by force.

As long as we are free to use whatever resources we own, then we will not need to start shooting.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 21:14:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', ' ')As long as we are free to use whatever resources we own, then we will not need to start shooting.


Ah, The Tragedy of the Commons.

"Ruin is the destination toward which all men rush, each pursuing his own best interest in a society that believes in the freedom of the commons. Freedom in a commons brings ruin to all." Garrett Hardin
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 22:07:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Ludi, I believe the first thing we need to do is get people thinking about these things..


I agree, and sometimes these issues are so complex, it's difficult to cover them in a messageboard discussion, where people tend to leap to conclusions (including yours truly) about other peoples' positions, and where concepts are often misunderstood.


Though it is difficult to discuss these things, I think we should still try to do it here, to the best of our ability.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 22:13:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', '
')As long as we are free to use whatever resources we own, then we will not need to start shooting.



This is difficult in the case of natural resources because people do not individually own them in many cases. Who owns the water which passes through a watershed? Who owns the wind? Who owns wildlife?
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby DavidFolks » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 23:13:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'D')avid, that vehicle sounds great, and something I would love to own myself. How do you plan to get past the problem of aggressive drivers in large vehicles making it too unsafe to use them?

My experience with commuting by bicycle is mixed. For the most part, as long as I followed the rules of the road, and didn't do anything sudden/unexpected/stupid, my experience has been good.

If you want to give up coffee in the morning, being passed by an eighteen wheeler moving 50 mph is a great wakeup!

Then there was the time some kids in a convertable leaned out and screamed in my ear as they went by.

It takes a certain ammount of guts I guess. But my feeling is, that the more people sharing the road, the more people will share the road. It just takes courtesy on both sides.

For all I'm pro-bicycle, I get really mad when I'm in a car, and a cyclist doesn't follow the rules of the road.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'I')'m don't mean to bash your idea and work. Like I said, I think it's great, and I'm sure it will be a huge success for you and work well in certain places. I'm curious to hear your thoughts on the above.

PS - I know Texas has a certain reputation, but I've lived and driven all over the US and in Canada, and found drivers just as aggressive in most places. It's an unfortunate problem with many causes.


You raise some valid points, and this is why I think these kinds of things need to be done.

The laws already exist to protect all those entitled to use the roads. As with any change, there will be resistance, maybe resentment, and accomodations may be bumpy at first. But unless and until people start using human powered vehicles, and electric assist vehicles, change and acceptance won't happen.

By trying to make this type of transport appealing to mainstream people, and making it very user friendly and easy to use, the pioneering types will make a go of using it. The more it's seen, the more it will be accepted, and, hopefully, one day will be seen as the norm.

Hopefully, with enough exposure, and lobbying by enthusiastic people, we will begin to see changes in infrastructure and city planning to reflect this type of transport.

To put it simply, the only route to change, is change.:)
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby LoneSnark » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 00:13:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ho owns the water which passes through a watershed? Who owns the wind? Who owns wildlife?

Well, in accordance with The Coase Theorem, it should not matter how you decide who owns what, as long as the question of who owns what is settled once and for all and enforcible in a court of law.

Grant ownership of the water to who-ever owns the first farm upstream, grant it to the last farm downstream, or auction it off to the highest bidder. It does not matter as the ultimate outcome will be about the same.

In accordance with this theory, bad outcomes occur for two reasons: 1) negotiation costs are prohibitive; 2) property rights are uncertain
If the quantity of parties is too extreme to allow for effective negotiation without suffering from free-rider problems then deadlock will prevent allocation. Similarly, if you cannot state who owns the water then the water will constitute a commons and tragedy will ensue.
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