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Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby LoneSnark » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 20:49:18

If people stop buying what you do for a living because it costs too much, that money they would have spent on you does not vanish. Just find something else to do for people that is less energy intensive.

A recession or a depression is a monetary phenomenon. With peak oil there will be plenty of work for people to do, everything from farming to mass transit. Sure, there will not be a lot they can buy with their wages, but they will have wages. The Federal Reserve can see to that.

If you check the history books, the great depression was the exact opposite: there was no work to do because there was no money to pay people. Many historians have described it as "a money drought". Many towns and cities went so far as to create their own scrip. But, if you managed to get money then you could buy whatever you wanted, people were desperate to sell.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Pixie » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 20:56:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', ' ')American energy use is not necessary for standard of living. It's a lie that we all believe. You can powerdown by a factor of ten and not really sacrifice anything of true value.


Except your job or someone elses. The energywe use doesn't go down a rathole. Somebody buys it and is employed by it's use. If our energy use goes down, our current notion of standard of living goes with it.

Conservation is a self-induced recession. On the scale needed, it is a depression.


In four months, I quit my job and become a full time sailor on a historic re-creation merchant sailing ship. This is a skill that was lost 100 years ago, but it will be cutting edge energy efficient shipping 50 years from now. I will sell my car. After I leave the boat, I don't know where I will work, but I am an EMT and a sailing ship sailor, and those skills should get me a job anywhere I want to live, even post-peak. I haven't done the math, but I strongly suspect I will have powered down by a factor of 10.

If you want to power down that much, sell your car, subdivide your house and share it with 7-9 room mates, and get to work by human power or mass transit. Grow a garden in the back. That'll do the trick.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby TheDude » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 21:04:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', 'M')y prognostications are based on a decline rate suggested by (hmm... name escapes me) the former Iranian minister of oil. He thought the decline rate would be 1% until 2012 and then 2-4% after that. He strikes me as a credible expert, and the decline rate strikes me as believable.


You're thinking of Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari, who died recently. Lots of different decline rates have been suggested, in very credible fashion; only one way to find out which is correct.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Pixie » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 21:19:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', 'M')y prognostications are based on a decline rate suggested by (hmm... name escapes me) the former Iranian minister of oil. He thought the decline rate would be 1% until 2012 and then 2-4% after that. He strikes me as a credible expert, and the decline rate strikes me as believable.


You're thinking of Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari, who died recently. Lots of different decline rates have been suggested, in very credible fashion; only one way to find out which is correct.


Thank you. It's also approximately the same decline rate as in ASPO's most recent scenario.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Pixie » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 21:30:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', ' ')American energy use is not necessary for standard of living. It's a lie that we all believe. You can powerdown by a factor of ten and not really sacrifice anything of true value.


Except your job or someone elses. The energywe use doesn't go down a rathole. Somebody buys it and is employed by it's use. If our energy use goes down, our current notion of standard of living goes with it.

Conservation is a self-induced recession. On the scale needed, it is a depression.



Here's the other great thing about jobs and powering down. If you can lower your bills, you don't need such a high paying job. Just like you don't need such a large engine if you build a smaller car. There are, I guess, two ways to go about powering down. One is to invest a whole lot of money into a homestead on which you will generate all your own power and food. I submit that this is the hard way. You will be paying those investments off for 30 years.

The way I am advocating for (smaller home, fewer possessions, closer to work) immediately lowers your expenses. Thus, you can make less money and still have more spending power. In my case, I will be quitting a 40K/year job and taking a 10K a year job, but I will be saving $300 per month MORE THAN I DO NOW, because I will have absolutely no expenses.

If we define standard of living as amount of free time and freedom from stress, then powering down my way is the absolute way to go!
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 23:49:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', 'I')f we define standard of living as amount of free time and freedom from stress, then powering down my way is the absolute way to go!
Wouldn't that be nice. What proportion of the population do you think could do it your way, without affecting you?
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 00:15:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'I')f people stop buying what you do for a living because it costs too much, that money they would have spent on you does not vanish. Just find something else to do for people that is less energy intensive.


Think that through. A never-ending decline in the standard of living.

More and more people vying for a piece of a shrinking pie.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby yesplease » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 00:17:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', 'I')f we define standard of living as amount of free time and freedom from stress, then powering down my way is the absolute way to go!
Wouldn't that be nice. What proportion of the population do you think could do it your way, without affecting you?
A significant portion assuming they have the same view of standard of living. Not that they will... Most view standard of living as having new shiney stuff and alla that.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 00:17:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', 'I')f you want to power down that much, sell your car, subdivide your house and share it with 7-9 room mates, and get to work by human power or mass transit. Grow a garden in the back. That'll do the trick.


And what if everyone did this?

Conservation can be seen easily embraced at the micro level, but not at the macro.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 04:25:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', 'I')f we define standard of living as amount of free time and freedom from stress, then powering down my way is the absolute way to go!
Wouldn't that be nice. What proportion of the population do you think could do it your way, without affecting you?
A significant portion assuming they have the same view of standard of living. Not that they will... Most view standard of living as having new shiney stuff and alla that.
Well at least you acknowledge that not enough will make the kinds of changes you suggest. I also doubt that a significant number of people making the changes would not affect you. If a significant proportion of the population did something like learning to sail a boat, instead of "contributing" to the economic party, then do you think the resultant collapse in the economy would not affect you? If so, can you explain why not?

By the way, what is the purpose of the "historic re-creation merchant sailing ship?"
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby DavidFolks » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 09:33:25

First, thanks for the kudos on the transport project. Frame, and other components are done, motor and motor control in place, battery pack is here, and regular ac charger. Still working on a smart charging system, the body (which I'll ignore until the rolling chassis is complete) and a couple of custom parts I have to machine. Wanted to have it rolling a month ago, but I'm in the middle of a restoration job in a century home, and can't get enough time away from my paid work to finish up the odds and ends.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'E')xcept your job or someone elses. The energywe use doesn't go down a rathole. Somebody buys it and is employed by it's use. If our energy use goes down, our current notion of standard of living goes with it.


Don't forget where we are. This is the powerdown as solution thread. I think we can assume smaller population.:roll:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', 'D')avid, I LOVE THIS! I believe there will be a market for your contraption. ...{edit}...The bad news: I don't think that market will be very large until gas is about $15 a gallon. Once it costs an entire paycheck to pay for the gas to drive to the grocery store, the general public will take human-powered transport seriously.

The good news: That price is only about 10 years out at the present rate of increase. Hang in there. Adopt a long term business model and you will make it. Don't expect to make a lot of money in the next couple of years.


Thanks Pixie. All my plans seem to be long term these days, out of necessity if nothing else.:lol: Plans for the electric assist HPV and all the other associated changes with it I've projected out as a 10 year minimum, and hopefully no longer than 20.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'H')ere's the little car we are working on:

www.sunnev.com

...{edit}...

It's really fun. Check out the Youtube movie. We built the prototype with Art and my high school kids. They loved it!


Been to the site a few times, and it's one of the things that encourages me work through the difficulties. Enough people have an interest in low impact, appropriate technology fixes that we're moving forward.

Congrats on having the kids help. Grounding them in the skills they need, as well as the mind-set behind this vehicle should serve them well. If they can share their enthusiasm with their peers, it will also serve as a broader educational tool, and hopefully influence the behaviors of future generations.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'A') recession or a depression is a monetary phenomenon. ...{edit}... If you check the history books, the great depression was the exact opposite: there was no work to do because there was no money to pay people. ... {edit}... But, if you managed to get money then you could buy whatever you wanted, people were desperate to sell.


I think you'll find, if you dig a little deeper, that the depression was caused from a number of factors. My understanding is that:

a) Manufacturing built up a surplus of goods

b) Credit financing became popular to move the goods

c) Production capacity was ramped up to meet the inflated sales figures

d) The whole house of cards collapsed when we couldn't use up the surplus production.

I'm not an economist, but I think your ideas about money and economics might be flawed.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', 'I')n four months, I quit my job and become a full time sailor on a historic re-creation merchant sailing ship. This is a skill that was lost 100 years ago, but it will be cutting edge energy efficient shipping 50 years from now.

Follow your bliss Pixie. You may not be far wrong in your assesment. Even if you are, you'll have gained valuable skills and a trim physique.

Sailing, a sustainable form of heavy transport. And it only took a couple hundred years to figure it out!:lol:
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby LoneSnark » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 12:01:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')) Manufacturing built up a surplus of goods
b) Credit financing became popular to move the goods
c) Production capacity was ramped up to meet the inflated sales figures
d) The whole house of cards collapsed when we couldn't use up the surplus production.

I think if you dig a little deeper, you will see that you just described every supply-side recession in world history. To turn a recession into a depression requires more than just production slide. The Great Depression did not turn into anything more than a recession until1931 when the Federal Reserve drove up interest rates (double digits) in attempts to protect a disintegrating gold standard, causing money to dry up and the banking system to start collapsing in 1932. Or, at least, this is the official history as of our time (it has changed before).

But, as you describe, Peak Oil is supposed to be seen creating shortages, or the inability to produce enough goods, an under-supply leading to price inflation and monetary expansion. A recession is exactly the opposite: an over-supply of goods leading to a price collapse and monetary decline. As such, Peak Oil will look nothing like the Great Depression and more like the Stagflation of the 1970s. Either way, both monetary eventualities can be counteracted through regulation by the Federal Reserve.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd what if everyone did this?

Conservation can be seen easily embraced at the micro level, but not at the macro.

This is similar to a test-essay in one of my advanced economic classes, if only I could remember the answer I wrote (about a page and a half). I lined out a number of scenarios depending on how quickly workers shifted in their desire to work fewer hours. If the shift progressed slowely enough to minimize expectation destruction, and assuming a fare position inside the business cycle, then there might not need to be a recession, as luxury manufacturers will have time to either liquidate themselves or shift to other markets.

You must remember, you are not just reducing consumption, you are also drying up the supply of labor. But more importantly, reality will still exist in the markets, because as expectations unwind employers will be able to dictate the rate of adjustment, offering inducements to workers to keep working until they can hire enough additional workers to continue operating efficiently.

When all is said and done, in accordance with the theory of marginal return, a society working 20 hours a week will produce more goods and services per hour worked than a society working 40 hours a week. As such, real GDP would fall by a precentage less than 50%. This effect can be seen in France where the work week has been artificially limited to 35 hours coupled with high structural unemployment has caused output per hour to become the highest in the world.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Pixie » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 15:14:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', 'I')f we define standard of living as amount of free time and freedom from stress, then powering down my way is the absolute way to go!
Wouldn't that be nice. What proportion of the population do you think could do it your way, without affecting you?


Don't know, but this is what is going to happen, one way or the other. Either you find your own low impact lifestyle, or you lose your job when your factory closes, and then you downsize your life. The original post was about how to powerdown, and now I am being criticized for making real, do-able, immediate actions and suggestions for how to do it.

The USA is one of the only places in the world where people think of 2500 square feet as a middle class lifestyle. If you want to power down by a factor of 10, then share that space with 10 times as many people, or find a living space that is only 1/10 the size. And of course, insulate and find the most efficient means to heat. Simple as pi. Apartments, by the way, are easy to heat, because they are small and share walls with other apartments. It's like cuddling together for warmth.

Carpool to work with 9 other people, or cut down your commute by a factor of ten. Or stop driving your own car and accomplish the same exact thing.

Use one tenth the water. Running a hot water faucet for five minutes uses the same amount of energy as running a 60 watt bulb for 14 hours. Get a low flow showerhead, ultra low flush toilet, other efficient water appliances, get rid of the dish washer, and then ration yourself. Make sure you drink enough. You may have to skip showering some days.

If we all recognize that population must shrink, then ration yourself to either zero or one child. The more people are born, the more will die. Adopt a child--there's plenty as needs it.

This is not rocket science. It just sounds difficult because it is all so foreign to the expectations we grew up with.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Pixie » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 15:19:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', 'I')f you want to power down that much, sell your car, subdivide your house and share it with 7-9 room mates, and get to work by human power or mass transit. Grow a garden in the back. That'll do the trick.


And what if everyone did this?

Conservation can be seen easily embraced at the micro level, but not at the macro.


If everyone did this, the problem of peak oil would go away, Monte. I am not saying I expect everyone to do this voluntarily. But this thread was about what people could do. Along the way, the objective of powering down by a factor of 10 was suggested, not by me, but I embrace that objective.

Fact is, voluntarily or not, this is what we are talking about. Assuming there is no cornucopian solution, we will be powering down. Not everyone will end up being a gentleman farmer/communal hippy/feudal lord. Some people will remain in the cities, scrapping for a living. I am saying if you power down now, you can do it comfortably and reduce your needs. If you wait another 20 years, resource depletion will force you to do it whether you like it or not.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 16:05:29

Yep, it's a difficult problem. I work in an energy intensive, "wasteful" industry - showbiz - and have yet to figure out a new profession for myself which will support me. I don't find powering down 80 - 90% to be anything other than very difficult, especially when it comes to my business. Home seems more possible. Many people who power down are able to do it thanks to a job which takes the responsibility of resource use. I can't do that, as my business is at my home.


:cry:



You say "get to work by human power or mass transit" but what "work" is one to "get to"?


BTW, most people will remain in the cities, likely, as that is where most people live already. In what way will these masses scrap for a living, I wonder? And I really do wonder! 8O Most people in our society don't have experience scraping a living out of nothing.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Pixie » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 16:19:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'Y')ep, it's a difficult problem.
You say "get to work by human power or mass transit" but what "work" is one to "get to"?

BTW, most people will remain in the cities, likely, as that is where most people live already. In what way will these masses scrap for a living, I wonder? And I really do wonder! 8O Most people in our society don't have experience scraping a living out of nothing.


Well, if you have no bills, you need a lot less work. A few years ago, I started to notice that I really hated working 40 hours a week, but there was no way I could pay all my bills without doing so. And also, I noticed that no matter how many raises I got, I never saved any extra money. $40K a year, and no savings.

Then, I sold my home and moved into an apartment. Voila! No mortgage. I paid off all my credit cards. Voila! No crushing debt. Now, I can save money. My apartment is close to work. Sell the car. Voila! No car payment, no auto insurance. Now, I save even more.

What I am advocating is eliminating or minimizing all your bills--your mortgage, your credit card debts, your car, your utilities. The less you need to pay your bills, the less of a job you need. Thus, the better placed you are to survive when the economy begins to contract.

I am assuming that this thread, "Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil" takes as an assumption that the economy WILL contract, right? Well, the less your needs, the less dangerous that is to you. If your monthly bills total $2000, then you need to make at least $24K per year after taxes just to survive. You lose that job, you end up on the street. But if your bills total only $300, all you need $3.6K per year, and you can make that in three months at minimum wage.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Pixie » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 16:26:14

And before someone points out to me just how great it is to own your own home--that's fine. Do so. But get as little home as you need, and share it with others. You will accomplish the same thing. Your per capita energy use will fall drastically, along with your cost of living. The more people you share that space with, the more secure you will be when the economy contracts. Just make sure to choose wisely. I'm not advocating renting rooms to anyone who can pass a credit check. I'm advocating living with trusted friends and family.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 16:26:31

I think paying off the mortgage would be better than moving to an apartment at this point. :)


Thank the gods I don't work 40 hrs a week for money! Don't know why anyone would want to do that....
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 16:29:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', ' ')I'm advocating living with trusted friends and family.


They all want their own homes, as it turns out...
:cry:
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Pixie » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 16:35:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', ' ')I'm advocating living with trusted friends and family.


They all want their own homes, as it turns out...
:cry:


And therein lies the rub. It's not that people CAN'T powerdown. It's that they don't want to. This is why society as a whole will not be prepared. Changing our own paradigms is a trick. Finding like minded people you can get along with is a trick. f you can't find like minded people...

Small dwelling, efficient appliances, close to work, probably as powered down as you can get. Stop buying on credit and pay the credit cards off. Kill your TV. It helps if you don't see all those advertisements.
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