$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') once mentioned PO to a yuppie who works in the IT industry pulling in 6 figures. his response:
"Big oil is just milking the public with higher oil prices. Peak oil is a make believe story."
PeakOil is You
Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil
Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil
by stepka » Sun 16 Dec 2007, 02:09:06
That reminds me of a conversation I had with a similar type back in 1985. I mentioned the possibility of us running short of oil in the near future, and he airily waved it away, saying that we wouldn't need to worry about that for another 20 years. Hmmm.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil
by Alcassin » Sun 16 Dec 2007, 15:26:16
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') just went to a meeting of truckers who are tired of high fuel prices and want to do something about it. They are not aware of peak oil at all and are not happy about what's happening. It really opened my eyes. They didn't want to hear about conservation at all. Tom Allen talked about the increased CAFE standards. They wanted to blame it on enviros and greenies. This does not bode well for the rest of society. They won't want to work on a solution. They just want someone to blame it on.
http://bangornews.com/news/t/midmaine.a ... zoneid=182
http://bangornews.com/news/t/midmaine.a ... zoneid=182
Welcome in reality.
Blame greenies - business as usual.
Peak oil is only an indication and a premise of limits to growth on a finite planet.
Denial is the most predictable of all human responses.
Denial is the most predictable of all human responses.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil
by Revi » Sun 16 Dec 2007, 18:20:23
The plan at the trucker's meeting was to get the Governor to drop the tax on Diesel and to get him to allow trucks up to 100,000 pounds on the interstate. I think the interstate idea is a good one, but that money is used to keep the roads up, and they take a beating with 100,000 pound vehicles, so it's fair that they pay to keep them up. I think that they need to be paid more from the mills for their wood, to reflect their costs. This huge jump in the cost of diesel is hurting them a lot.
It's pretty messed up when a huge industry like trucking is in trouble. Is this a symptom of peak oil? I think so. This is the beginning of real problems. I think that the price competition is going to result in them being priced out of the market. This won't be a good thing. Almost everything moves by truck. I never thought I'd see the day that trucking became one of those subsidized industries.
Here's a discussion of the meetings on a Maine Conservative website. I have to say that I agree with a lot of what they have to say, even though I'm not a conservative.
http://www.asmainegoes.com/forum/viewto ... sc&start=0
It's pretty messed up when a huge industry like trucking is in trouble. Is this a symptom of peak oil? I think so. This is the beginning of real problems. I think that the price competition is going to result in them being priced out of the market. This won't be a good thing. Almost everything moves by truck. I never thought I'd see the day that trucking became one of those subsidized industries.
Here's a discussion of the meetings on a Maine Conservative website. I have to say that I agree with a lot of what they have to say, even though I'm not a conservative.
http://www.asmainegoes.com/forum/viewto ... sc&start=0
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil
by vfr » Mon 31 Dec 2007, 21:00:32
In Richard Heinberg's book 'Power-Down' he contrasts the survivalist mentality with that of the preservationist.
The wiki on this topic:
"A survivalist is a person who anticipates and prepares for a future disruption in local, regional or worldwide social or political order."
"Preservationism...as a term distinguishing between survivalist groups who wish merely to survive a collapse of civilization, and communities who wish to preserve as much of human culture as is possible in the event of collapse."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivalist
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preservationist
Mr. Heinberg talked about a gene bank founded by Nikolai Vavilov in Russia and the dedicated preservationists that guarded the seed and gene pool. He went on to say how 9 of the scientists and workers starved to death because they refused to eat the seeds and tubers in the gene bank.
Now, I don't know if a few seeds or tubers would have made much difference in their surviving. But I can say a survivalist would have eaten the first one to die. While their efforts were most admirable, we can say their life was not an enviable one for us to emulate. And in the end they failed miserably at self preservation and survival.
Mr. Heinberg brings up a good point though, balancing the two areas of survival with preservation. For we may well survive, but if we do not preserve a semblance of a somewhat livable world to survive in, we may not wish to survive in what remains.
There is a famous saying: "First you get rich...then you get holy."
This applies especially to our topic at hand. Our first instinct is to survive. The foundation of our survivalist attitude is grounded in mental preparedness, knowing we have the tools and skill to survive. Then, once we have a semblance of peace, knowing we can survive with our skill level and necessities of survival, we can work on community and preservation.
This is how it has always been with a drowning man...we save ourselves first and others second. And if we balk at natures way...both men drown. It is part of natural law as well and is imbedded in our instinct.
But, since we have a 'free will' of sorts, we need moral guidance or a moral conscience as well as guidance by some hand tools, skills and instinct to live a peaceful, flourishing and balanced life.
Actually it is like this.
We are free to do what we want -- but are not free to want what we want. As all our actions have consequences, and many of our actions produce consequences that end up destroying peace. (both ours and other's peace).
And in the process, we learn we are not quite independent in the word and are interdependent and will come to realize the wisdom of Blake's words in 'The Marriage of Heaven and Hell'..."and thus men forgot that all deities reside in the human breast."
So in a nutshell, this mix of instinctual and moral guidance is what separates us from the animals that run solely on instinct. And without moral guidance and compassion for others, community will be lost. And the better the community is at balancing self preservation within that community, the better its chances are for long term survival.
"When a man's mind is concentrated he is blind."
A few years ago I read an article in the Wall Street Journal about a con man named Charles Ponzi. He was credited with inventing the first pyramid scheme. The article stated when Ponzi was interviewed he was asked how he was able to swindle so many people so easily, his responded, "When a man's mind is concentrated he is blind."
This case of having your mind concentrated to the point of blindness is not anything new. The ancient philosophers new this well. They called it "putting passion before reason."
Both these areas of passion and reason where the foundation of much philosophical discussion of ethics and virtue with the ancient Greeks.They knew when passion rules the mind, that the only job left for reason is that of the subservient task to find cleaver ways to satisfy the passions.
When our minds are occupied with too much wreckage of the past, too many problems and complexities and out of control passions then there is little room left in it for reasoning. We can see this with the gene bank scientists that starved to death guarding the seeds and tubers - too concentrated in one area and blind to everything else.
In our own blindness and concentration of mind there are no doubt many areas that can use some thought. For instance, in my own life, I pondered in bed this morning about my lack of preparedness for the vast expanses of glass in my downstairs gym. What would happen in times of unrest if someone broke the glass out?
Should I have had the forethought to store some plywood to shutter up my house?No doubt each season would have its say bout such a circumstance? The winter cold and snow would destroy our efforts at heating the house. In the summers the torrid of bugs, mosquitoes, raccoons or unwanted two leg visitors could enter at will.
The houses nowadays have evolved into very poor vehicles for the post-carbon life that awaits us. Most are heated by gas or electric and both of these power sources will have supply problems down the road.
In addition, my split level house has very few doors inside. It's design favors wide open spaces and passageways instead of doors. Large areas of windows, while providing sunlight to illuminate and spaciousness are not ideal for survival needs. Once the outer skin is penetrated, most of the house is penetrated as well.
My thoughts then turned to the installation of the plywood even if I did have a few sheets around.
Did I have a a hand drill and extra bits? After all, there may not be any electric or gas to power my generators? And if I broke a bit, the stores may have been drained long ago of such items. Would it been wise to pre-drill the plywood and door frame prior to need? I don't even think I have a hand saw...did I precut the plywood to fit the frames or at least buy a hand saw? Did I notch the plywood to clear the hinges and deadbolt....and on and on?
(BTW, I can tell you cutting large 3/4 inch ply sheets with a hand saw is not easy.)
Yes, many questions that we normally don't address due to concentration of mind in one area and lack of forethought in others. And this is just one small area of my concerns at being a balanced survivalist.
Remember, balancing acts are not perfect and need to be dynamic and flexible or we will get out of balance again.
When judgments have to be made, mistakes can and will happen the best we can do is give it an honest effort with rational thought. It is a never ending job of mindfulness of what disturbs our peace and the best fit equation to returning our life to a semblance of peace.
And we must accept our work can only be "progress oriented" and never actually perfected. Perfection is the nature of the gods...imperfection is the nature of humans. Many of us do not know we have gone too far until we actually go too far and start rebalancing and pulling back - so without realizing imperfection we cannot learn.
"The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom." ~ Blake
The Greeks used to teach harmony and balance in the Trivium in their schools. In the 'tenants of reason' they went into much details with the subject of harmony breaking it down into proportionally, prudence, balance, fitness and aptness. Not subjects you hear a lot of nowadays.
3 Components of Rationality
1 - Rationality requires reflection.
Many of us are too busy to reflect. Other times our minds our consumed with troubles and out of control passions. Over thinking also plays a part in keeping our minds working in the wrong direction. An old Buddhist saying tells us that a constantly busy mind cannot heal itself.
Reflection time must be 'open thinking' time where we look at all ends of the spectrum of answers and choices and not just the comfortable one we are accustomed to. We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking that we used when we created them. Psychologist William James once said, "A great many people believe they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices."
2- Rationality is the ability to anticipate consequences.
Reflection pays big part in this as well as past experiences and the process of extrapolation from past experiences and others mistakes. Weighing and balancing are two key words that come into play. Sometimes 'gambling' is more a component to those that 'shoot from the hip' and worry about consequences later. Many of us get stuck in a place of justifying our actions with blindness to the consequences.
Many times our actions are ego based and not truth or rational based. "First one decides the goal, then one gathers the principles or delusions to justify reaching this goal." Principles or delusions? This depends on whether the mind is being used for rational thought or if out of control passions are in command.
3 - Rationality requires adherence to certain standards.
There are many standards to consider and each individual has to judge these for themselves. Another name for a standard is a rule. Many people are defiant against 'rules' and they are entitled to not follow the rules as they please. But such freedom has a price to pay, so they should not balk at paying the price for their freedom with the necessary consequences that come from not following the rules.
Standards are different for each area of excellence that we seek to attain, but they may also share certain commonalties with other areas as well. The standards for excellence in rock climbing are different from those of a scuba diver. Professional standards of an engineer will be different from societal standards of being a good parent.
But one thing is certain. If we are defiant and balk against these standards we will probably be headed for failure or even death in certain activities. (Failure? This cannot be said in 100% of the cases, for without such experimentation and digression inventors would not produce much. But in generally acceptable terms, standards usually have to be followed. If you balk at following standards then go back to component 1 and do some reflection as to why?)
I'll leave you with the mantra of the mixed gas technical diver...just as it applies to rock climbers and just as it will apply to survivalists / preservationists.
"It's not a question of if you will taste death ~ the only question is if you will swallow."
Take care,
V (Male)
Agnostic Freethinker
Practical Philosopher
Futurist
Urban Homesteader
The wiki on this topic:
"A survivalist is a person who anticipates and prepares for a future disruption in local, regional or worldwide social or political order."
"Preservationism...as a term distinguishing between survivalist groups who wish merely to survive a collapse of civilization, and communities who wish to preserve as much of human culture as is possible in the event of collapse."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivalist
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preservationist
Mr. Heinberg talked about a gene bank founded by Nikolai Vavilov in Russia and the dedicated preservationists that guarded the seed and gene pool. He went on to say how 9 of the scientists and workers starved to death because they refused to eat the seeds and tubers in the gene bank.
Now, I don't know if a few seeds or tubers would have made much difference in their surviving. But I can say a survivalist would have eaten the first one to die. While their efforts were most admirable, we can say their life was not an enviable one for us to emulate. And in the end they failed miserably at self preservation and survival.
Mr. Heinberg brings up a good point though, balancing the two areas of survival with preservation. For we may well survive, but if we do not preserve a semblance of a somewhat livable world to survive in, we may not wish to survive in what remains.
There is a famous saying: "First you get rich...then you get holy."
This applies especially to our topic at hand. Our first instinct is to survive. The foundation of our survivalist attitude is grounded in mental preparedness, knowing we have the tools and skill to survive. Then, once we have a semblance of peace, knowing we can survive with our skill level and necessities of survival, we can work on community and preservation.
This is how it has always been with a drowning man...we save ourselves first and others second. And if we balk at natures way...both men drown. It is part of natural law as well and is imbedded in our instinct.
But, since we have a 'free will' of sorts, we need moral guidance or a moral conscience as well as guidance by some hand tools, skills and instinct to live a peaceful, flourishing and balanced life.
Actually it is like this.
We are free to do what we want -- but are not free to want what we want. As all our actions have consequences, and many of our actions produce consequences that end up destroying peace. (both ours and other's peace).
And in the process, we learn we are not quite independent in the word and are interdependent and will come to realize the wisdom of Blake's words in 'The Marriage of Heaven and Hell'..."and thus men forgot that all deities reside in the human breast."
So in a nutshell, this mix of instinctual and moral guidance is what separates us from the animals that run solely on instinct. And without moral guidance and compassion for others, community will be lost. And the better the community is at balancing self preservation within that community, the better its chances are for long term survival.
"When a man's mind is concentrated he is blind."
A few years ago I read an article in the Wall Street Journal about a con man named Charles Ponzi. He was credited with inventing the first pyramid scheme. The article stated when Ponzi was interviewed he was asked how he was able to swindle so many people so easily, his responded, "When a man's mind is concentrated he is blind."
This case of having your mind concentrated to the point of blindness is not anything new. The ancient philosophers new this well. They called it "putting passion before reason."
Both these areas of passion and reason where the foundation of much philosophical discussion of ethics and virtue with the ancient Greeks.They knew when passion rules the mind, that the only job left for reason is that of the subservient task to find cleaver ways to satisfy the passions.
When our minds are occupied with too much wreckage of the past, too many problems and complexities and out of control passions then there is little room left in it for reasoning. We can see this with the gene bank scientists that starved to death guarding the seeds and tubers - too concentrated in one area and blind to everything else.
In our own blindness and concentration of mind there are no doubt many areas that can use some thought. For instance, in my own life, I pondered in bed this morning about my lack of preparedness for the vast expanses of glass in my downstairs gym. What would happen in times of unrest if someone broke the glass out?
Should I have had the forethought to store some plywood to shutter up my house?No doubt each season would have its say bout such a circumstance? The winter cold and snow would destroy our efforts at heating the house. In the summers the torrid of bugs, mosquitoes, raccoons or unwanted two leg visitors could enter at will.
The houses nowadays have evolved into very poor vehicles for the post-carbon life that awaits us. Most are heated by gas or electric and both of these power sources will have supply problems down the road.
In addition, my split level house has very few doors inside. It's design favors wide open spaces and passageways instead of doors. Large areas of windows, while providing sunlight to illuminate and spaciousness are not ideal for survival needs. Once the outer skin is penetrated, most of the house is penetrated as well.
My thoughts then turned to the installation of the plywood even if I did have a few sheets around.
Did I have a a hand drill and extra bits? After all, there may not be any electric or gas to power my generators? And if I broke a bit, the stores may have been drained long ago of such items. Would it been wise to pre-drill the plywood and door frame prior to need? I don't even think I have a hand saw...did I precut the plywood to fit the frames or at least buy a hand saw? Did I notch the plywood to clear the hinges and deadbolt....and on and on?
(BTW, I can tell you cutting large 3/4 inch ply sheets with a hand saw is not easy.)
Yes, many questions that we normally don't address due to concentration of mind in one area and lack of forethought in others. And this is just one small area of my concerns at being a balanced survivalist.
Remember, balancing acts are not perfect and need to be dynamic and flexible or we will get out of balance again.
When judgments have to be made, mistakes can and will happen the best we can do is give it an honest effort with rational thought. It is a never ending job of mindfulness of what disturbs our peace and the best fit equation to returning our life to a semblance of peace.
And we must accept our work can only be "progress oriented" and never actually perfected. Perfection is the nature of the gods...imperfection is the nature of humans. Many of us do not know we have gone too far until we actually go too far and start rebalancing and pulling back - so without realizing imperfection we cannot learn.
"The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom." ~ Blake
The Greeks used to teach harmony and balance in the Trivium in their schools. In the 'tenants of reason' they went into much details with the subject of harmony breaking it down into proportionally, prudence, balance, fitness and aptness. Not subjects you hear a lot of nowadays.
3 Components of Rationality
1 - Rationality requires reflection.
Many of us are too busy to reflect. Other times our minds our consumed with troubles and out of control passions. Over thinking also plays a part in keeping our minds working in the wrong direction. An old Buddhist saying tells us that a constantly busy mind cannot heal itself.
Reflection time must be 'open thinking' time where we look at all ends of the spectrum of answers and choices and not just the comfortable one we are accustomed to. We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking that we used when we created them. Psychologist William James once said, "A great many people believe they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices."
2- Rationality is the ability to anticipate consequences.
Reflection pays big part in this as well as past experiences and the process of extrapolation from past experiences and others mistakes. Weighing and balancing are two key words that come into play. Sometimes 'gambling' is more a component to those that 'shoot from the hip' and worry about consequences later. Many of us get stuck in a place of justifying our actions with blindness to the consequences.
Many times our actions are ego based and not truth or rational based. "First one decides the goal, then one gathers the principles or delusions to justify reaching this goal." Principles or delusions? This depends on whether the mind is being used for rational thought or if out of control passions are in command.
3 - Rationality requires adherence to certain standards.
There are many standards to consider and each individual has to judge these for themselves. Another name for a standard is a rule. Many people are defiant against 'rules' and they are entitled to not follow the rules as they please. But such freedom has a price to pay, so they should not balk at paying the price for their freedom with the necessary consequences that come from not following the rules.
Standards are different for each area of excellence that we seek to attain, but they may also share certain commonalties with other areas as well. The standards for excellence in rock climbing are different from those of a scuba diver. Professional standards of an engineer will be different from societal standards of being a good parent.
But one thing is certain. If we are defiant and balk against these standards we will probably be headed for failure or even death in certain activities. (Failure? This cannot be said in 100% of the cases, for without such experimentation and digression inventors would not produce much. But in generally acceptable terms, standards usually have to be followed. If you balk at following standards then go back to component 1 and do some reflection as to why?)
I'll leave you with the mantra of the mixed gas technical diver...just as it applies to rock climbers and just as it will apply to survivalists / preservationists.
"It's not a question of if you will taste death ~ the only question is if you will swallow."
Take care,
V (Male)
Agnostic Freethinker
Practical Philosopher
Futurist
Urban Homesteader
-
vfr - Peat
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil
by MonteQuest » Mon 14 Apr 2008, 21:56:26
Seems few wish to embrace the only rational solution.
Prosperity at any cost?
Feed the machines the food of the poor?
Prosperity at any cost?
Feed the machines the food of the poor?
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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MonteQuest - Expert
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil
by Revi » Mon 14 Apr 2008, 22:08:53
The only rational solution is to live as sustainably as you can now, in preparation for the future. We might not survive what's coming, but as an example it's powerful.
I am thinking of getting some community gardens going. It's for us, but also if we do it with kids they may benefit from knowing something about growing things.
I am thinking of getting some community gardens going. It's for us, but also if we do it with kids they may benefit from knowing something about growing things.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Revi - Light Sweet Crude
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil
by KingDavid » Mon 14 Apr 2008, 22:57:50
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')eems few wish to embrace the only rational solution.
Prosperity at any cost?
Feed the machines the food of the poor?
Prosperity at any cost?
Feed the machines the food of the poor?
Maybe feed the poor to the machines?
I know montequest, it's sad. Some of my friends will keep on driving cuz it's their freedom or something, some of them even know oil production can't keep up. The future is dark...... .
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil
by Revi » Mon 14 Apr 2008, 23:13:41
I was thinking that instead of driving a Yukon on ethanol, we could strip out the motor and have a Mexican family with pedals in the back. We could throw tortillas back there when we want to go faster.
I am joking, but it's the same thing as driving around on ethanol. You are taking the food that would be eaten some place and turning it into fuel. Somewhere in Central America somebody is going hungry because they can't afford the price of corn. In Haiti the food riots are because of the price of rice. Most people can't afford to eat even if they work a full time job.
I am joking, but it's the same thing as driving around on ethanol. You are taking the food that would be eaten some place and turning it into fuel. Somewhere in Central America somebody is going hungry because they can't afford the price of corn. In Haiti the food riots are because of the price of rice. Most people can't afford to eat even if they work a full time job.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Revi - Light Sweet Crude
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- Location: Maine
Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil
by dohboi » Mon 14 Apr 2008, 23:27:13
Revi, your scenario may be more accurate than you think. I heard on the radio this morning (NPR) that the corn used to make ethanol to fill the tank of the average SUV could feed a family for a year.
The insanity is spiraling ever further out of control. The more such "solutions" we come up with, the more we will through everything further out of wack.
Nine tenths (at least) of any powerdown program must be reducing use and reducing expectation.
Not that there's any time left for any of that to make a huge amount of difference at this point.
And not that basically anybody now living a high consumption lifestyle is going to even consider scaling back on basically anything.
The insanity is spiraling ever further out of control. The more such "solutions" we come up with, the more we will through everything further out of wack.
Nine tenths (at least) of any powerdown program must be reducing use and reducing expectation.
Not that there's any time left for any of that to make a huge amount of difference at this point.
And not that basically anybody now living a high consumption lifestyle is going to even consider scaling back on basically anything.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil
by bodigami » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 00:40:53
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '(')...)
I am thinking of getting some community gardens going. It's for us, but also if we do it with kids they may benefit from knowing something about growing things.
I am thinking of getting some community gardens going. It's for us, but also if we do it with kids they may benefit from knowing something about growing things.
Yes, we should start a thread of hope where we post only photos of plants that give food cultivated on our gardens (I think there's some similar thread somewhere...). And updates to them, I have recently planted some avocado, oranges and tomatoes... lol, I can take photos of possible "suspects" that I think are little avocado or orange plants... and updates while they grow
- bodigami
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Why get an Aptera that would use less energy over it's lifetime than a cyclist would, reduce oil consumption to a factor of what it was, and cost less over the same time period than a Prius (the most fuel efficient car available), when we can use specific crops as biofuels that drive up the price of food, while any price offset from the decline in gasoline use can be dealt with via dismantling programs like CA's ZEV initiative and offering huge tax breaks on the largest SUVs? It's about t3h munz0rz y0!$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'N')ine tenths (at least) of any powerdown program must be reducing use and reducing expectation.
