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Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 16:52:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlexdeLarge', 'T')o achieve "Powerdown" a new form of government will be required.


So you can't take action unless the government tells you to?
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby AlexdeLarge » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 17:08:43

What if government disagrees with my actions??

"Do not imagine, comrades, that leadership is a pleasure. On the contrary, it is a deep and heavy responsibility. No one believes more firmly than Comrade Napoleon that all animals are equal. He would be only too happy to let you make your decisions for yourselves. But sometimes you might make the wrong decisions, comrades, and then where should we be?"

Animal Farm
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 17:12:41

What actions of yours do you think the government would disagree with and how would they find about about them?

Fly under the radar. Hide in plain sight.

Don't flounce.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 17:16:11

Another brain-dead comment from SW.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby AlterEgo » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 17:30:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlterEgo', 'S')o population reduction needs to come first, before sustainable solutions can do anything except contribute more to the problem. My impression is that we are all sitting around here waiting for one of the Four Horsemen to come along and take care of it for us, since our ethics have evolved to fit a high-energy culture, that protects any life that it can at all costs.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', 'L')et's try that logic then, which boils down to pragmatic choise between stopping eating to reduce population by one, or learning permaculture, as was suggested at the end of the list. Which one is it and are you ready to stand up to your interpretation of principle of stopping what you're doing that is causing the problem? How about starting a thread about inviting others to join your not-eating campaign once you start to put it in practice? I'm leaving other ways to reduce population aside as they would not be stopping doing what is causing the problem on your part but doing something to others you are not ready to go through yourself.


Huh? I already said that ethics within our ascent culture prohibit suicide and murder (while allowing war). And there are other ways to fix the problem of population than going on a hunger strike, Mr. Bean. Have you thought about birth control, hmmm? I do agree with you that the old problem of who's making the babies is an issue. Sustainability proponents in a descent culture will have less babies, while backlash/deniers will continue to proliferate. Unfortunately, that evolutionary technique of many seeds is not as successful in a climax culture with limited resources.

"Don't flounce." Funny, Ludi. Government is going to be small and local and simpler, by nature of powerdown. Change will be easier to affect.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MrBean » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 17:53:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlterEgo', '
')Huh? I already said that ethics within our ascent culture prohibit suicide and murder (while allowing war). And there are other ways to fix the problem of population than going on a hunger strike, Mr. Bean. Have you thought about birth control, hmmm? I do agree with you that the old problem of who's making the babies is an issue. Sustainability proponents in a descent culture will have less babies, while backlash/deniers will continue to proliferate.


Yes I have thought about birth control and even made a couple of posts on the subject. But from what I hear and don't really disagree, reduced fertility is not going to guite do the trick in time and if reducing population was the most important priority, that would require doing something on the death side of the equation too. If I understood right, Monte is expecting Pandemia (soon) and putting his hope of reducing the numbers in (global) governement refusal and forbidding of medical aid for the victims of Pandemia. Not really plausible.

That is why I feel that putting lot of thought and feeling in the population numbers is basically asinine. What is really important is change in the human attitude towards nature, change that is in many ways comparable to religious or spiritual awakening.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Unfortunately, that evolutionary technique of many seeds is not as successful in a climax culture with limited resources.


Huh? Please explain.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby AlexdeLarge » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 18:00:39

What shall we do with these "backlash/deniers" who continue to proliferate? Do they think they will be able to hide their children in plain sight, under the radar...... from our local, smaller, simpler (kinder, gentler, machine gun hand) government ?

I think you are right comrade.........Change will be easier to affect. A brave new world......
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 18:00:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', ' ')If I understood right, Monte is expecting Pandemia (soon) and putting his hope of reducing the numbers in (global) governement refusal and forbidding of medical aid for the victims of Pandemia. Not really plausible.


Hmmm. I've not really gotten that impression from what he's said. I've never gotten the impression he's hoping for global pandemic, rather that global pandemic is the likely outcome of overshoot - that wide scale death from disease is a very likely end to a population of this kind.

The limiting of medical aid I've seen him mention is choosing not to engage in life-extending methods such as organ transplants, resuscitation, etc, especially for older people. I've gotten the impression he advocates this be an action of choice by individuals, just as limiting reproduction would be an action of choice by individuals.

However, I may certainly have gotten the wrong impression over the years, and am willing to be corrected by Monte.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MrBean » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 18:16:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', ' ')If I understood right, Monte is expecting Pandemia (soon) and putting his hope of reducing the numbers in (global) governement refusal and forbidding of medical aid for the victims of Pandemia. Not really plausible.


Hmmm. I've not really gotten that impression from what he's said. I've never gotten the impression he's hoping for global pandemic, rather that global pandemic is the likely outcome of overshoot - that wide scale death from disease is a very likely end to a population of this kind.

The limiting of medical aid I've seen him mention is choosing not to engage in life-extending methods such as organ transplants, resuscitation, etc, especially for older people. I've gotten the impression he advocates this be an action of choice by individuals, just as limiting reproduction would be an action of choice by individuals.

However, I may certainly have gotten the wrong impression over the years, and am willing to be corrected by Monte.


Maybe I've understood wrong or overinterpreted, but that's what it would take to effectively reduce human numbers for a while (or before nature does the job), not just individuals refusing high tech life-extending methods. My father, who really dislikes doctors, thought hard but then decided to accept kidney tech, as urine poisoning is not exactly the nicest way to go.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby VMarcHart » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 18:16:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', 'T')he cause was not oil, or coal before that, or forests before that, the cause was the attitude of some human societies towards nature, considering planet as resource for short term expansion instead of considering it home.
Interesting observation. I like it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', 'H')ow would any pragmatic solution to the problem of numbers solve the problem of the attitude that caused the problem of numbers in the first place?
Also a good question. I guess it will be trial and error until the attitude changes and/or we're back at optimum capacity. We'll have to change, either by choice or lack thereof.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 18:21:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', 'H')ow would any pragmatic solution to the problem of numbers solve the problem of the attitude that caused the problem of numbers in the first place?
Also a good question. I guess it will be trial and error until the attitude changes and/or we're back at optimum capacity.


I think an attitude change is necessary, a paradigm shift, as some people call it.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby AlterEgo » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 18:28:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Unfortunately, that evolutionary technique of many seeds is not as successful in a climax culture with limited resources.


Huh? Please explain.


Sorry, Mr. Bean. I was using shorthand speech, and did not explain myself fully. I like how the Archdruid explains successional communities below.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')One ecological pattern that deserves especially close attention as we begin the long slide down the back end of Hubbert’s peak is the process called succession. Any of my readers who were unwise enough to buy a home in one of the huge and mostly unsold housing developments cranked out at the top of the late real estate bubble will be learning quite a bit about succession over the next few years, so it may be useful for more than one reason to summarize it here.

Imagine an area of bare bulldozed soil someplace where the annual rainfall is high enough to support woodland. Long before the forlorn sign saying “Coming Soon Luxury Homes Only $450K” falls to the ground, seeds blown in by the wind send up a first crop of invasive weeds. Those pave the way for other weeds and grasses, which eventually choke out the firstcomers. After a few years, shrubs and pioneer trees begin rising, and become anchor species for a young woodland, which shades out the last of the weeds and the grass. In the shade of the pioneer trees, saplings of other species sprout. If nothing interferes with the process, the abandoned lot can pass through anything up to a dozen different stages before it finally settles down as an old growth forest community a couple of centuries later.

This is what ecologists call succession. Each step along the way from bare dirt to mature forest is a sere or a seral stage. The same process shapes the animal population of the vacant lot, as one species after another moves into the area for a time, until it’s supplanted by another better adapted to the changing environment and food supply. It also proceeds underground, as the dizzyingly complex fabric of life that makes up healthy soil reestablishes itself and then cycles through its own changes. Watch a vacant lot in a different ecosystem, and you’ll see it go through its own sequence of seres, ending in its own climax community — that’s the term for the final, relatively stable sere in a mature ecosystem, like the old growth forest in our example. The details change, but the basic pattern remains the same.

Essential to the pattern is a difference in the way that earlier and later seres deal with energy and other resources. Species common in early seres – R-selected species, in ecologists’ jargon – usually maximize their control over resources and their production of biomass, even at the cost of inefficient use of resources and energy. Weeds are a classic example of R-selected species: they grow fast, spread rapidly, and get choked out when slower-growing plants get established, or the abundant resources that make their fast growth possible run short. Species common in later seres – K-selected species – maximize efficiency in using resources and energy, even when this means accepting limits on biomass production and expansion into available niches. Temperate zone hardwood trees are a classic example of K-selected species: they grow slowly, take years to reach maturity, and endure for centuries when left undisturbed.

Apply the model of succession to human ecology and a remarkably useful way of looking at the predicament of industrial society emerges. In successional terms, we are in the early stages of the transition between an R-selected sere and the K-selected sere that will replace it. The industrial economies of the present, like any other R-selected sere, maximizes production at the expense of sustainability; the successful economies of the future, emerging in a world without today’s cheap abundant energy, will need to maximize sustainability at the expense of production, like any other K-selected sere.

To put this into the broader picture it’s necessary to factor in the processes of evolutionary change, because climax communities are stable only from the perspective of a human lifetime. Environmental shifts change them; so, often on a much faster timescale, does the arrival of new species on the scene. Sometimes this latter process makes succession move in reverse for a while. For example, when an invasive sere of R-selected species outcompetes the dominant species of a K-selected climax community; eventually the succession process starts moving forward again, but the new climax community may not look much like the old one.

Apply this to the human ecology of North America, say, and it’s easy to trace the pattern. A climax community of K-selected Native American horticulturalists and hunter-gatherers was disrupted and largely replaced by an invasive sere of European farmers with a much more R-selected ecology. Not long after the new community established itself, and before succession could push it in the direction of a more K-selected ecology, a second invasive sere – the industrial economy – emerged, using resources the first two seres could not access. This second invasive sere, the first of its kind on the planet, was on the far end of the R-selected spectrum; its ability to access and use extravagant amounts of energy enabled it to dominate the farming sere that preceded it, and push the remnants of the old climax community to the brink of extinction.

Like all R-selected seres, though, the industrial economy was vulnerable on two fronts. Like all early seres in succession, it faced the risk that a more efficent K-selected sere would eventually outcompete it, and its ability to use resources at unsustainable rates made it vulnerable to disruptive cycles of boom and bust that would sooner or later guarantee that a more efficient sere would replace it. Both those processes are well under way. The industrial economy is well into overshoot at this point, and at this point a crash of some kind is pretty much inevitable. At the same time, the more efficient K-selected human ecologies of the future have been sending up visible shoots since the 1970s, in the form of a rapidly spreading network of small organic farms, local farmer’s markets, appropriate technology, and alternative ways of thinking about the world, among many other things."


http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/ ... ssion.html
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Homesteader » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 18:43:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlexdeLarge', '[')i]What if government disagrees with my actions??

"Do not imagine, comrades, that leadership is a pleasure. On the contrary, it is a deep and heavy responsibility. No one believes more firmly than Comrade Napoleon that all animals are equal. He would be only too happy to let you make your decisions for yourselves. But sometimes you might make the wrong decisions, comrades, and then where should we be?"

Animal Farm


ADL, your posts seem somewhat dark today. Just checking in.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby AlexdeLarge » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 18:56:43

A little dark.... But I hope thought provoking! :)

Like someone else posted....we may get the government we deserve! We may find out we prefer anarchy! ;)
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 18:58:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlexdeLarge', '
')Like someone else posted....we may get the government we deserve! We may find out we prefer anarchy! ;)


I certainly don't want the government to try to "fix things." 8O
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MrBean » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 19:35:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlterEgo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Unfortunately, that evolutionary technique of many seeds is not as successful in a climax culture with limited resources.


Huh? Please explain.


Sorry, Mr. Bean. I was using shorthand speech, and did not explain myself fully. I like how the Archdruid explains successional communities below.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')One ecological pattern that deserves especially close attention as we begin the long slide down the back end of Hubbert’s peak is the process called succession. Any of my readers who were unwise enough to buy a home in one of the huge and mostly unsold housing developments cranked out at the top of the late real estate bubble will be learning quite a bit about succession over the next few years, so it may be useful for more than one reason to summarize it here.

Imagine an area of bare bulldozed soil someplace where the annual rainfall is high enough to support woodland. Long before the forlorn sign saying “Coming Soon Luxury Homes Only $450K” falls to the ground, seeds blown in by the wind send up a first crop of invasive weeds. Those pave the way for other weeds and grasses, which eventually choke out the firstcomers. After a few years, shrubs and pioneer trees begin rising, and become anchor species for a young woodland, which shades out the last of the weeds and the grass. In the shade of the pioneer trees, saplings of other species sprout. If nothing interferes with the process, the abandoned lot can pass through anything up to a dozen different stages before it finally settles down as an old growth forest community a couple of centuries later.

This is what ecologists call succession. Each step along the way from bare dirt to mature forest is a sere or a seral stage. The same process shapes the animal population of the vacant lot, as one species after another moves into the area for a time, until it’s supplanted by another better adapted to the changing environment and food supply. It also proceeds underground, as the dizzyingly complex fabric of life that makes up healthy soil reestablishes itself and then cycles through its own changes. Watch a vacant lot in a different ecosystem, and you’ll see it go through its own sequence of seres, ending in its own climax community — that’s the term for the final, relatively stable sere in a mature ecosystem, like the old growth forest in our example. The details change, but the basic pattern remains the same.

Essential to the pattern is a difference in the way that earlier and later seres deal with energy and other resources. Species common in early seres – R-selected species, in ecologists’ jargon – usually maximize their control over resources and their production of biomass, even at the cost of inefficient use of resources and energy. Weeds are a classic example of R-selected species: they grow fast, spread rapidly, and get choked out when slower-growing plants get established, or the abundant resources that make their fast growth possible run short. Species common in later seres – K-selected species – maximize efficiency in using resources and energy, even when this means accepting limits on biomass production and expansion into available niches. Temperate zone hardwood trees are a classic example of K-selected species: they grow slowly, take years to reach maturity, and endure for centuries when left undisturbed.

Apply the model of succession to human ecology and a remarkably useful way of looking at the predicament of industrial society emerges. In successional terms, we are in the early stages of the transition between an R-selected sere and the K-selected sere that will replace it. The industrial economies of the present, like any other R-selected sere, maximizes production at the expense of sustainability; the successful economies of the future, emerging in a world without today’s cheap abundant energy, will need to maximize sustainability at the expense of production, like any other K-selected sere.

To put this into the broader picture it’s necessary to factor in the processes of evolutionary change, because climax communities are stable only from the perspective of a human lifetime. Environmental shifts change them; so, often on a much faster timescale, does the arrival of new species on the scene. Sometimes this latter process makes succession move in reverse for a while. For example, when an invasive sere of R-selected species outcompetes the dominant species of a K-selected climax community; eventually the succession process starts moving forward again, but the new climax community may not look much like the old one.

Apply this to the human ecology of North America, say, and it’s easy to trace the pattern. A climax community of K-selected Native American horticulturalists and hunter-gatherers was disrupted and largely replaced by an invasive sere of European farmers with a much more R-selected ecology. Not long after the new community established itself, and before succession could push it in the direction of a more K-selected ecology, a second invasive sere – the industrial economy – emerged, using resources the first two seres could not access. This second invasive sere, the first of its kind on the planet, was on the far end of the R-selected spectrum; its ability to access and use extravagant amounts of energy enabled it to dominate the farming sere that preceded it, and push the remnants of the old climax community to the brink of extinction.

Like all R-selected seres, though, the industrial economy was vulnerable on two fronts. Like all early seres in succession, it faced the risk that a more efficent K-selected sere would eventually outcompete it, and its ability to use resources at unsustainable rates made it vulnerable to disruptive cycles of boom and bust that would sooner or later guarantee that a more efficient sere would replace it. Both those processes are well under way. The industrial economy is well into overshoot at this point, and at this point a crash of some kind is pretty much inevitable. At the same time, the more efficient K-selected human ecologies of the future have been sending up visible shoots since the 1970s, in the form of a rapidly spreading network of small organic farms, local farmer’s markets, appropriate technology, and alternative ways of thinking about the world, among many other things."


http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/ ... ssion.html


Thanks for sharing that very powerfull analogy. Can you tell what does the R in R-selected and K in K-selected stand for?

So do I understand correctly your point, that if hoping that some future generation could live in a climax stage agroforest, spreading multiple seed of edible and otherwise human friendly K-selected species is best done at earlier stages of succession than at climax stage?
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 19:37:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'M')onte, I find this to be a good thread. This is the kind of stuff a guy of your intellect can do to help. Good work! Keep it up!


Thanks. I have written several threads that deal with where we should be headed. That was what Catton's book was all about.

The Ecological Basis for Revolutionary Change.

People seem to only read the "Overshoot" part of the title.

He laid down the ecological science behind why we need to have a paradigm shift in our thinking.

That has been my one and only goal on his site.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 19:49:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', ' ')...what I still don't get is how to actually reduce population quickly enough to solve the problem, by which pragmatic means that would not in fact cause more problems than they solved?


Thus, is our dilemma. We need to chose from the right-hand list first, before nature does.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd how would any pragmatic solution to the problem of numbers solve the problem of the attitude that caused the problem of numbers in the first place? The cause was not oil, or coal before that, or forests before that, the cause was the attitude of some human societies towards nature, considering planet as resource for short term expansion instead of considering it home.


Attitude? As Charles Darwin noted, " The cumulative biotic potential of any given species always exceeds the carrying capacity of it's environment." All species produe more offspring than can survive.

Most species just reach the upper limits and population growth slows, with sometimes a die-back to sustainable levels.

Some, like us, occasionally overshoot and crash back to a sustainable level.

We chose not to limit our numbers when we knew the consequences of overshoot.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 19:59:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', ' ') If I understood right, Monte is expecting Pandemia (soon) and putting his hope of reducing the numbers in (global) governement refusal and forbidding of medical aid for the victims of Pandemia. Not really plausible.


I have never posted anything of the like. :roll: You haven't the foggiest of notion of what my position is. Not a damn clue.

This is what I mean when I say you are in denial of reality.

My hope lies in an ecological paradigm shift in thinking that allows us to make decisions about our future based upon ecological principles of what is sustainable.

Disease in some form will crash the human population just as nature crashes all species population in overshoot.

Reduced food leads to malnutrition which leads to disease.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 20:01:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', ' ')If I understood right, Monte is expecting Pandemia (soon) and putting his hope of reducing the numbers in (global) governement refusal and forbidding of medical aid for the victims of Pandemia. Not really plausible.


Hmmm. I've not really gotten that impression from what he's said. I've never gotten the impression he's hoping for global pandemic, rather that global pandemic is the likely outcome of overshoot - that wide scale death from disease is a very likely end to a population of this kind.

The limiting of medical aid I've seen him mention is choosing not to engage in life-extending methods such as organ transplants, resuscitation, etc, especially for older people. I've gotten the impression he advocates this be an action of choice by individuals, just as limiting reproduction would be an action of choice by individuals.

However, I may certainly have gotten the wrong impression over the years, and am willing to be corrected by Monte.


Nope, you got it right.
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