[KillTheHumans]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'C')ampbell has a lot more to say than just the predictions. his book shed a lot of light on the oil industry.

[Revi]

First of all, your name and your avatar don't seem to correspond to what you are saying. Are you saying that there will be no problem with peak oil? Since we are eating now there will never be a problem with food supplies? Since we are still driving around there never will be any problems associated with peak oil?

It seems like Campbell may have been a bit early with his predictions, but at least he got the word out. His article in Scientific American was the first to tell a wider world that there might be a problem. He should be commended for that.

There is a real danger in prediction. You can never pin down exactly when the real problems start. They can start next week or next decade. Doesn't it make sense to prepare for them whatever happens?

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('XOVERX', ' ')So it never ceases to amaze me as to the number people who post on this board who keep wondering about "when" peak is going to happen in the future, apparently entirely oblivious to the fact that the "peak" in "Peak Oil" has already come and gone.

[kuidaskassikaeb]

I would agree with Alokin that if Campbell and the others are claiming that their peak prediction dates are scientific they are overstating their case. The problem with picking the date for the peak is that it will be picked by above ground factors. When a function is at its maximum the derivative is zero. Near the peak relatively small changes can effect when that peak actually occurs, an undulating plateau sort of thing.

For example, if we had not invaded Iraq, the peak probably would not have been in 2006. Colin Campbell isn’t going to be able to predict if Venezuela is going to invest in heavy oil and how much. Really the United States has probably surpassed it’s consumption peak because the dollars fall will probably increase prices and destroy demand, even if the rest of the world hasn’t hit its peak yet. While above ground politics hastens the peak, technological advances push it back. That’s not science, it’s the kind of guesswork people like us are actually good at.

[alokin]

Maybe it's even not important when the peak is. Oil , gas and electricity is going up and at one point it's just too much.
An economic crash could even come only because the dollar falls and falls and falls.

I believe there will be something combined very soon.

There was a hailstorm yesterday. It didn't destroy much but it showed me how fragile everything is, if we really had to rely on our backyard, one hailstorm means nothing to eat!

[aldente]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'T')he most discouraging point for me is that, whether peak has occurred already or will come soon, we all know no meaningful action is going to be taken by world leaders or by the public to mitigate the worst outcomes.

[Revi]

We are living in the beginning of the slide off of the plateau now, in my opinion. Who gets pushed off first? The poor and poor countries, of course. Meanwhile some live as extravagently as before. If their standard of life seems to be slipping, they'll push more off the edge. Everyone who is foreclosed out of a house, and can't get more credit will be off the edge soon.

Here in Maine there are lots of people on the edge. They live in a small houses and trailers and drive old cars. Some don't have a car that runs any more. They are in debt for the oil they bought last winter. Anything like a regular winter this year will push them over the edge. At least around here we can burn wood. Wood is getting expensive, but even if you buy it cut and split it costs less than half the equivalant heat in oil. We're still up on the plateau, but we're getting closer to the edge.

[vision-master]

My brother is getting cut & split oak for $100 a cord in Northern Mn.

[RockHind]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('XOVERX', 'T')he world appears to be past-peak already. At best the world is at "plateau." The world peak production numbers and dates:

* May 2005: Crude & NGL: 82.08 mbpd.
* May 2005: Crude & Condensate: 74.15 mbpd.
* July 2006: All hydrocarbon liquids: 85.43 mpbd
* February 2007: NGPL: 8.24 mbpd.

What these numbers mean is that even as worldwide demand for oil (and associated hydrocarbons) has exponentially increased after each respective date, the world has been unable to produce more than the production that occurred at each respective date. You know, "peak oil."

The "peak" in "Peak Oil", folks, is old news. Peak Oil is not something that is going to happen at some future date.

And this information is literally well-documented all over this board. So it never ceases to amaze me as to the number people who post on this board who keep wondering about "when" peak is going to happen in the future, apparently entirely oblivious to the fact that the "peak" in "Peak Oil" has already come and gone.

The balance of our lives will now be spent in wondering how to cope with Peak Oil, not speculating as to "when" Peak Oil is going to happen.

The crisis has moved from the front yard, through the front door, and is threatening the television set inside the house as I type these words. The refrigerator appears to be safe this year, as well as the computer, but the crisis is indeed in the house.

[Carlhole]

Excerpt from Colin Campbell's book, Oil Crisis

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Campbell', 'T')aking a longer view, it is easy to see why a general financial collapse is inevitable. In short, to explain it yet again, the banks have been lending money in excess of what they had on deposit. The interest charge represented new money, created out of thin air, which itself gave rise to further debt, with the essential collateral being created by the resulting economic growth. Furthermore, other hidden money flows arose from the control of trading currency: previously the pound sterling and now the dollar, which in effect became the principal artifact and benefit of Empire. Lastly, it is evident that the system creates ever greater disparity of wealth, which is an invitation to tension. Even I., as a humble pensioner, probably effectively kill one or two Africans every day, as an indirect result of my minimal demands for goods and services. In short, one man's wealth has to be another's poverty in a world of finite resources.

[outcast]

Given how the book was written in 2005, frankly anyone could see the financial crisis was going to happen. Debt levels were skyrocketing, and all of it just looked like a big bubble.
I suppose one prediction out of four is ok

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'G')iven how the book was written in 2005, frankly anyone could see the financial crisis was going to happen. Debt levels were skyrocketing, and all of it just looked like a big bubble.
I suppose one prediction out of four is ok

[seahorse]

What's surprising to me is how many times I've reference Colin Campbell's 1999 book called "The Coming Oil Crisis" which predicted financial problems associated with a peak in oil production but you have not read those posts.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o, to those who are aware of the economic cycles predicted by PO theorist, this was predictable. Try reading Colin Campbell's book "The Coming Oil Crisis" published in 1999 where he discusses this very cycle. You'll find it elsewhere as well.

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'G')iven how the book was written in 2005, frankly anyone could see the financial crisis was going to happen. Debt levels were skyrocketing, and all of it just looked like a big bubble.
I suppose one prediction out of four is ok

[JJ]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'G')iven how the book was written in 2005, frankly anyone could see the financial crisis was going to happen. Debt levels were skyrocketing, and all of it just looked like a big bubble.
I suppose one prediction out of four is ok

[Revi]

We've cut off Peter Schiff. These things happen, right...

Colin Campbell has been talking about peak oil for the longest.

The powers that be couldn't hear him.

It's 2008, almost 2009. We're in it. It's happening. The price per barrel has gone down because we are all paupers who can't drive a lot even with the price at $2 a gallon because nobody will lend us more money to buy more gas.

[Carlhole]

Hmmm, that's odd...

Usually by now, someone attacks the character, intelligence or sanity of any author claiming 911 was an inside job -- as Colin Campbell has done in his book.

His is essentially the Mike Ruppert view of how 911 and Peak Oil are related. Except that Mike Ruppert crowed long and hard about 911 while Colin Campbell, to my knowledge, has only written down his perspective this one time. He even credits Ruppert's Crossing The Rubicon in a sidebar near the end of the the selection entitled The Grand Plan.

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'H')mmm, that's odd... Usually by now, someone attacks the character, intelligence or sanity of any author claiming 911 was an inside job -- as Colin Campbell has done in his book.
His is essentially the Mike Ruppert view of how 911 and Peak Oil are related. Except that Mike Ruppert crowed long and hard about 911 while Colin Campbell, to my knowledge, has only written down his perspective this one time. He even credits Ruppert's Crossing The Rubicon in a sidebar near the end of the the selection entitled [url=http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic43852-0-asc-683.htmlThe Grand Plan.[/url]

[cbxer55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'H')mmm, that's odd... Usually by now, someone attacks the character, intelligence or sanity of any author claiming 911 was an inside job -- as Colin Campbell has done in his book.
His is essentially the Mike Ruppert view of how 911 and Peak Oil are related. Except that Mike Ruppert crowed long and hard about 911 while Colin Campbell, to my knowledge, has only written down his perspective this one time. He even credits Ruppert's Crossing The Rubicon in a sidebar near the end of the the selection entitled [url=http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic43852-0-asc-683.htmlThe Grand Plan.[/url]

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cbxer55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'H')mmm, that's odd... Usually by now, someone attacks the character, intelligence or sanity of any author claiming 911 was an inside job -- as Colin Campbell has done in his book.
His is essentially the Mike Ruppert view of how 911 and Peak Oil are related. Except that Mike Ruppert crowed long and hard about 911 while Colin Campbell, to my knowledge, has only written down his perspective this one time. He even credits Ruppert's Crossing The Rubicon in a sidebar near the end of the the selection entitled [url=http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic43852-0-asc-683.htmlThe Grand Plan.[/url]