[NevadaGhosts]

Colin Campbell talks about the coming Great Depression
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he scene is set for the Second Great Depression, but the conservatism and outdated mindset of institutional investors, together with the momentum of the massive flows of institutional money they are required to place, may help to diminish the sense of panic that a vision of reality might impose. On the other hand, the very momentum of the flow may cause a greater deluge when the foundations of the dam finally crumble. It is a situation without precedent.

[seldom_seen]

nother good quote from that article:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') widely held myth proclaims that technology will deliver more, when its main impact has been to hold production higher for longer, accelerating depletion.

[DamienJasper]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NevadaGhosts', 'I') don't trust Lynch one bit. He's an economist, isn't he? And you know how often economists are wrong. It is a proven fact that the world's oil exploration companies are not finding any more large oil fields. Lynch needs to pull his head out of his ass. I don't trust economists. All they think about is numbers and money. Not physical oil limitations.

[0mar]

The crux of Michael Lynch's arguments is that "barons" and "lords" can make up for "kings" and "queens". As large fields deplete, smaller ones can offset and make up the decline. Considering that the world gets 30% of its own from about 25 fields (and there are several thousand fields pumping world wide), I don't think the argument holds water.

[Doly]

The distribution of sizes of oil fields makes it quite clear that, by the time the supergiant fields are depleted, we are well past peak.

[2007]

It sounds implaussible to me if there are any big fields out there that we haven't discovered.

If technology will make a difference, it must be NEW technology, ie stuff we haven't got at the moment.

If we take US as example all the tech & finance we dream of hasn't stopped the slow but steady decline.

It's difficult to argue against Lynch and similar; No quote here but I think one of the arguments in that camp is that Middle East is swimming in oil and it doesn't make sense to look for more at the moment (because the reserves! are so large). To me that argument speaks for itself.

[Raxozanne]

As far as I know it's only the OPEC countries that doubled their reserve estimates overnight. Do OPEC adhere to SEC reporting and that is why these figures jumped or were they doubling their figures so they could pump more under OPEC regulations?

[heyhoser]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raxozanne', 'A')s far as I know it's only the OPEC countries that doubled their reserve estimates overnight. Do OPEC adhere to SEC reporting and that is why these figures jumped or were they doubling their figures so they could pump more under OPEC regulations?

[DamienJasper]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('0mar', 'T')he crux of Michael Lynch's arguments is that "barons" and "lords" can make up for "kings" and "queens". As large fields deplete, smaller ones can offset and make up the decline. Considering that the world gets 30% of its own from about 25 fields (and there are several thousand fields pumping world wide), I don't think the argument holds water.

[Ludi]

How does Campbell's current prediction compare with predictions using Hubbert's equation?

[OverABarrel]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raxozanne', 'A')s far as I know it's only the OPEC countries that doubled their reserve estimates overnight. Do OPEC adhere to SEC reporting and that is why these figures jumped or were they doubling their figures so they could pump more under OPEC regulations?

[nth]

Campbell estimates 1.8 trillion barrels.
Most other experts predict ~2.0 trillion barrels.

If you use 1.8 - 2.5 trillion barrels, you will cover everyone, except USGS which predicts 3.1 trillion barrels.

I am not sure if USGS is including the non-coventional oil.

I know Ken Deffrey said that oil shales have close to 2 trillion barrels of oil, but is uneconomical and environmental disaster to produce.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('trespam', '
')Lynch does not produce models that demonstrate where we will find the oil that we need, what percentage increase we will realize in production due to new technologies, etc. He does echo the common phrase that the stone age didn't end because of a lack of stones. Now really: what the hell does that statement have to do with anything. That's about as profound as his arguments seem to get.

[Ludi]

There's no need to suffer from health or lifespan loss due to a "simpler" way of life. There's no need to lose knowledge of basic sanitation, which has been the main preventer of disease in modern times. Nor a need to lose knowledge of sterile surgical techniques. Why people insist on equating a different way of life with suffering, I don't understand.

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')here's no need to suffer from health or lifespan loss due to a "simpler" way of life. There's no need to lose knowledge of basic sanitation, which has been the main preventer of disease in modern times. Nor a need to lose knowledge of sterile surgical techniques. Why people insist on equating a different way of life with suffering, I don't understand.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')
reduce energy means lower quality of life.
most of the things that boost quality of life is driven by oil/energy.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')here's no need to suffer from health or lifespan loss due to a "simpler" way of life. There's no need to lose knowledge of basic sanitation, which has been the main preventer of disease in modern times. Nor a need to lose knowledge of sterile surgical techniques. Why people insist on equating a different way of life with suffering, I don't understand.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'i')t. After you spend an exhausting 12 hours a day hoeing corn and pulling up tares in the wheat .

[MonteQuest]

For those of you who have been following this thread, it has been split from where it was hijacked by BiGG and is now here:

http://www.peakoil.com/post97612.html#97612

[BiGG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'n')other good quote from that article:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') widely held myth proclaims that technology will deliver more, when its main impact has been to hold production higher for longer, accelerating depletion.