[Sgs-Cruz]

Heh, it's said among business here (Canada) that nothing can stop the Americans once they find a way to make a profit on it.

Let's hope that starts to holds true with alternative energy!

[Tapas]

Here is an excellent lecture with bulleted points presented by Colin Campbell. This is a perfect introduction to the topic of Peak Oil for a novice.

Dr. Campbell makes some sound conclusions at the end:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')n oil crisis is bad for politicians.
Blaming OPEC or the oil companies will not wash much longer.
It would be better to make a proper analysis of the true position and inform people.
No one blames the government for an earthquake. So they wouldn't blame it for an oil crisis either if they realized it was a natural phenomenon.

[qwanta]

Diane Rehm show at 10am... could be interesting. Usually, this show also takes calls from listeners.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ome oil industry experts argue that worldwide demand for oil is about to outpace production. We'll hear several views on future supply and demand for oil.

Guests:
Colin Campbell, petroleum geologist
Michael Lynch, president, Strategic Energy and Economic Research
J Robinson West, chairman, PFC Energy, an energy consulting firm

[killJOY]

So far:

Campbell: You got to find out to extract it. World discoveries peaked in the 1960s.

Lynch: Discovery is driven by politics: they stopped searching for oil in the 80s because oil was so cheap.

We just gotta do more exploring!

[brobak]

Seems that out of the three people talking, they have two "for" the idea of a demand crunch (one way or another) and the other against, saying politics prevent the crisis.

They also just said demand is increasing at 1.8% per year, rather than the normally bandied about 3% per year we see.

[killJOY]

Both Michael and Robin believe we can "easily" pump 100 million barrels a day.

Lynch says "lots of little and medium-sized" will save us.

Why is Campbell no longer part of the discussion?

[brobak]

Now the Phones are open this should be interesting.

Edit: Nevermind, Hydrogen will save us...*sigh*

[killJOY]

Irony of ironies: Michael Lynch doing a superb job bashing the "hydrogen economy."

The discussion is no longer about peak oil, though.

[ivuernis]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'W')hy is Campbell no longer part of the discussion?

[brobak]

It has moved away from the core issue of the peak. Its unfortunate because this would have been a decent forum for people to really have a fair discussion on the topic.

[qwanta]

Colin Campbell was interviewed alone for 10 minutes, then left. It's a shame he didn't stay for the debate. I wonder if he made that decision, or the radio show imposed it?

Mikel Lynch is spouting some nonsense though, my favorite: "in many cases [oil production] is limited by politics not geology."

[brobak]

Well *sigh* at least they got the fact that demand > supply soon out there. Though they havent discussed any of the ramifications of that which is really sad. Thats really what needs to get out there. We heard some crap about hydrogen, then we heard about prices at the pump, and then everything else revolved around cars. Not really understanding the fact that oil(energy) is inbued in everything. Blah.

[dub_scratch]

The phone-in part of the show, to me, clearly demonstrates that the average American has its head up its ass when it comes to energy. People seam to get all concerned about their stupid cars. Hydrogen, SUVs, hybrids-- all of this is a major distraction that I think will do us in. America will meet the coming challenge to the energy decline by trying to sustain traffic jams & car crashes. They will forget about food and other pressing needs. America is a nation of dumb people who forgot what really is important for maintaining a civilization.

If only we could figure out how to keep the cars rolling after the dieoff when there aren't the people to drive them.

[Heineken]

Very disappointing show. A lot of the most important information got left out (such as the crucial fact that a relatively few oil fields are responsible for up to half of world production, and they are maturing and have in some cases been damaged by injections of seawater and CO2). And there was little or no mention of global warming and the other sequelae of fossil fuel dependence.

Campbell did a good job opening the discussion, but then he vanished. I feel cheated by Public Radio. I don't think Michael Lynch had a particularly solid opponent in the other guy. Lynch himself was slick, cretinous, and totally wrong. Diane Rheme (whom I adore) was pretty good, considering that she herself didn't seem to know too much about the oil peak.

Whenever one knows a few things about a subject area, listening in on discussions like this one is usually incredibly frustrating. Half the good stuff never gets air time, and there are often abject errors.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', 'T')he phone-in part of the show, to me, clearly demonstrates that the average American has its head up its ass when it comes to energy. People seam to get all concerned about their stupid cars. Hydrogen, SUVs, hybrids-- all of this is a major distraction that I think will do us in. America will meet the coming challenge to the energy decline by trying to sustain traffic jams.

[killJOY]

This show proves we can't even seem to get beyond the "is peak oil real" part of the debate in this country, let alone into the nitty-gritty of what does it mean and what can we do. I'll take Heineken's word for it that the host is a good host (though I kept expecting her to keel over during the interview--she sounds very frail).

This is so disheartening.

If you missed the show, so what. You didn't miss anything of note. (Except for further confirmation that this country is SCREWED.)

[Heineken]

I sorta like her quavery, elderly voice, KillJoy. For me those are marks of wisdom and experience. More important, of course, is that she often asks good questions in her NPR interviews. I don't think this was one of her better performances, though.

[dub_scratch]

Within every cornucopian argument there lies a huge assumption-- one in which the cornucopian would like for people to accept as a given. Mike Lynch has his. He argues that discovery is not shaped by geology but politics & economics. He argues that mid east countries stopped discovering oil because they had so much that they laid down their wildcat rigs. By this Lynch is assuming a very very sizable amount of oil is there to be discovered.

Even if it was true that mid east countries stopped looking for oil due to politics, to assume that there must be a huge amount of oil is there is pure bullshit.

[Golgo13]

I downloaded the video presentation and burned it to DVD. It's back from 2000, but it's still good stuff.

[Optimist]

Q: So when does meltdown officially start? So far $60/barrel seems to have a rather limited effect. When should we start running for the shelters? $100/barrel? $200/barrel? 2010? 2015?

More likely we will come back in fifty years and find the pessimists worrying about something else. Peak water, anyone? Peak air?